Sports
NFL MVP race: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow? Plus, the case for Saquon Barkley
When assessing NFL MVP candidates one year ago, I lamented the dearth of candidates producing at levels high enough for consideration.
There’s no such problem as the 2024 MVP race enters its final stages.
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Saquon Barkley are superstar talents whose conventional and/or advanced stats match historic standards for MVP consideration.
Jackson was my favorite when assessing the situation one month ago, partly because his production was allowing Baltimore to win despite terrible support from the Ravens’ defense and special teams. The picture looks different now. Allen and Burrow have surged. Barkley, having topped 2,000 yards rushing, fits into a different category as a non-quarterback. The best case for him goes well beyond statistics.
We’ll start with the quarterbacks because they are obviously most valuable. We’ll finish with the special case for Barkley, who has helped transform the most pass-oriented organization of the past quarter-century.
The best MVP candidates, in my view, are high-producing, dynamic QBs for teams that win despite lackluster support from their defenses and special teams. These are the ultimate win-because-of quarterbacks.
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Patrick Mahomes has set the standard. He led the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs to Super Bowl glory after the team finished 29th in combined expected points added (EPA) on defense/special teams. He did this even though his defense/special teams failed to come alive in the playoffs the way Peyton Manning’s 2006 Super Bowl-winning Indianapolis Colts did after ranking 32nd in the regular season (in that case, Bob Sanders’ return to the defense helped Indy win it all despite Manning tossing three touchdown passes with seven interceptions in the postseason).
Mahomes proved to be the ultimate MVP. His case this season is tougher to make in the absence of elite statistical production, so he’s not part of this discussion, which focuses on betting favorites for the award (imagine if someone had told you before the season that Kansas City would take a 15-1 record into Week 18 without Mahomes — the preseason favorite at +500 — registering on the MVP radar).
Press play or drag the slider on the chart below to see how leading MVP candidates’ production and betting odds have shifted over the season, week by week. Burrow was far out of contention, as distant as +25000 three weeks ago and +15000 one week ago, until jumping to +2000 after Week 17’s overtime win over the Denver Broncos.
MVP voting closes before playoff results are known, so we can’t make a full evaluation. We do not even know whether Burrow’s 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals (29th in EPA on defense/special teams) will finish with a winning record, let alone reach the postseason. Jackson’s Ravens are 11-5 despite ranking 24th in EPA on defense/special teams, while Allen’s Buffalo Bills are 13-3 while ranking 15th in those phases that usually are critical for winning. Allen is expected to sit most of the Bills’ finale, while Burrow and Jackson could add to their resumes.
Allen overtook Jackson as the betting favorite after a Week 11 to 15 stretch that saw Buffalo beat Kansas City, put up 42 points on the Los Angeles Rams and win at Detroit, 48-42. Jackson’s Ravens lost in Weeks 11 and 13 before taking off Week 14 for their bye.
That stretch is fresher and more relevant to the current discussion than a Week 4 to 5 run featuring Baltimore’s victories over Buffalo (35-10) and Cincinnati (41-38). We’ll take the full season into account here.
As fans debate the MVP merits of their favorite players, let’s take a quick look at basic stats for Jackson, Allen and Burrow before evaluating them through other contextual lenses.
Establishing basic MVP credentials for the leading QB candidates
Ten quarterbacks have combined to win 21 MVPs since 2000.
Through 16 games, those QBs averaged 4,373 yards passing with 37 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 108.8 passer rating during their MVP seasons, per TruMedia.
They averaged 40 total touchdowns with 11 turnovers.
They averaged 165.9 total EPA on pass plays and rushes (0.27 per play), not counting kneeldowns.
| QB | JACKSON | ALLEN | BURROW |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Cmp-att |
300-442 |
307-483 |
423-606 |
|
Cmp% |
67.9% |
63.6% |
69.8% |
|
Pass yds |
3,955 |
3,731 |
4,641 |
|
Yds/att |
8.9 |
7.7 |
7.7 |
|
TD-INT |
39-4 |
28-6 |
42-8 |
|
Rating |
121.6 |
101.4 |
109.8 |
|
Sacked |
23 |
14 |
44 |
|
Rush yds |
864 |
539 |
212 |
|
Rush TD |
4 |
12 |
2 |
|
Total TDs |
43 |
40 |
44 |
|
Turnovers |
9 |
8 |
13 |
|
Total EPA |
172.8 |
155.5 |
116.7 |
|
EPA/play |
+0.29 |
+0.27 |
+0.15 |
|
EPA/pass play |
+0.33 |
+0.24 |
+0.17 |
|
EPA/pass att |
+0.42 |
+0.25 |
+0.30 |
Jackson, Allen and Burrow measure up to those standards except for Burrow’s 116.7 total EPA, which would rank 19th among those 21 MVP seasons, just behind 2021 Aaron Rodgers and ahead of 2003 Steve McNair. The lowest since 2000, by far, belonged to Jackson in 2023. His 51.5 EPA through 16 games was less than half the 16-game totals for the next-lowest MVP since 2000 (2015 Cam Newton).
Assessing MVP-caliber performance frequency: Advantage, Jackson?
As noted, those 10 quarterbacks with 21 MVP seasons since 2000 averaged 0.27 EPA per play when kneeldowns are excluded.
The table below stacks Jackson, Allen and Burrow by their best to worst EPA per play for each of their 16 starts this season.
Jackson met the MVP threshold of +0.27 EPA per play 11 times, compared to eight times for Allen and four for Burrow. Jackson also had the fewest games with negative EPA per play.
MVP candidates’ best to worst EPA per play
| Rank | Jackson | Allen | Burrow |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
0.95 (W) |
0.79 (W) |
0.67 (L) |
|
2 |
0.65 (W) |
0.65 (W) |
0.39 (L) |
|
3 |
0.64 (W) |
0.65 (L) |
0.28 (W) |
|
4 |
0.61 (W) |
0.59 (W) |
0.28 (W) |
|
5 |
0.59 (W) |
0.38 (W) |
0.24 (L) |
|
6 |
0.58 (W) |
0.34 (W) |
0.23 (W) |
|
7 |
0.57 (W) |
0.33 (W) |
0.22 (W) |
|
8 |
0.41 (W) |
0.28 (W) |
0.16 (W) |
|
9 |
0.34 (W) |
0.26 (W) |
0.15 (L) |
|
10 |
0.34 (W) |
0.23 (W) |
0.12 (W) |
|
11 |
0.27 (W) |
0.22 (W) |
0.10 (L) |
|
12 |
0.12 (L) |
0.20 (W) |
0.05 (L) |
|
13 |
0.05 (L) |
0.05 (W) |
-0.07 (L) |
|
14 |
0.01 (L) |
-0.07 (W) |
-0.10 (W) |
|
15 |
-0.04 (L) |
-0.08 (L) |
-0.19 (L) |
|
16 |
-0.25 (L) |
-0.23 (L) |
-0.45 (W) |
|
Avg |
0.29 |
0.27 |
0.15 |
Jackson accounts for seven of the top 14 single-game figures.
Median ranks for their 48 single-game figures: 20th for Jackson, 23rd for Allen, 30th for Burrow.
This is one way to get a feel for consistency.
The Ravens have gone 11-0 when Jackson has produced at the historic MVP level, but 0-5 when he did not.
The splits are 7-1 and 6-2 for Allen, compared to 2-2 and 6-6 for Burrow.
This suggests Baltimore has needed MVP production from its quarterback to win.
Burrow has elite receiving weapons in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Allen has a strong offensive line. Jackson has a dominant running back in Derrick Henry. These are factors worth noting, but I don’t see them as significant enough to tip the balance one way or another.
Trading places: Burrow overtakes Jackson atop Betrayal Index, but wins less frequently
If the best MVP candidates are indeed dynamic quarterbacks whose elite production helps their teams overcome weak defense/special teams to win, refreshing the Betrayal Index can help.
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Burrow and Jackson have swapped places at the top since our check-in after Week 10, but Jackson has a much better record (11-5, compared to 8-8 for Burrow), which factors into the MVP equation. Being good enough on offense to overcome the other components and win is the goal. Sometimes, that’s unrealistic, but no MVP quarterback’s team has had worse than an 11-5 record from a win percentage standpoint.
The table below shows all 32 current quarterbacks with at least eight starts this season. It stacks them by the difference between where these players rank among each other in QB EPA per start, and where their teams rank in defense/special teams EPA during each QB’s starts. Dallas has two players on the chart. Cleveland has none.
High-producing QBs with weak defenses/special teams rise to the top. These are the most “betrayed” quarterbacks. Burrow and Jackson lead the way.
The San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy and the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa are close behind Burrow and Jackson, something for their teams to consider when making full-season evaluations.
QBs appearing in the middle of the Betrayal Index rank about the same in QB EPA and team defense/special teams EPA, whether good or bad. That’s how Jordan Love (good QB EPA, good team defense/special teams EPA) and Gardner Minshew II (bad, bad) appear in close proximity.
Low-producing QBs with strong defenses/special teams fall to the bottom. It’s striking to see the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud lagging to such a degree.
Taking this another step with our QB MVP frontrunners, the table below shows just how many games Jackson, Allen and Burrow have played with strong, average and weak support from their defenses/special teams.
MVP candidates’ best to worst team D/ST EPA by game
| Rank | Jackson | Allen | Burrow |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
16.7 (W) |
16.6 (W) |
20.3 (W) |
|
2 |
11.8 (W) |
15.8 (W) |
13.6 (W) |
|
3 |
10.9 (W) |
15.3 (W) |
13.6 (W) |
|
4 |
9.0 (W) |
13.2 (W) |
10.1 (W) |
|
5 |
7.4 (L) |
12.4 (W) |
2.0 (L) |
|
6 |
2.9 (W) |
12.0 (W) |
1.4 (W) |
|
7 |
-1.2 (L) |
9.9 (W) |
1.0 (W) |
|
8 |
-7.1 (W) |
1.2 (W) |
0.7 (L) |
|
9 |
-7.3 (L) |
0.6 (L) |
-3.0 (W) |
|
10 |
-7.4 (L) |
-1.1 (W) |
-10.5 (L) |
|
11 |
-8.3 (W) |
-5.0 (W) |
-10.6 (W) |
|
12 |
-9.9 (W) |
-8.0 (W) |
-15.4 (L) |
|
13 |
-10.9 (L) |
-9.4 (W) |
-15.4 (L) |
|
14 |
-11.9 (W) |
-13.8 (L) |
-20.3 (L) |
|
15 |
-12.0 (W) |
-19.9 (W) |
-22 (L) |
|
16 |
-15.1 (W) |
-32.6 (L) |
-32.5 (L) |
|
Totals |
-32.4 |
+7.2 |
-67 |
Burrow (five) and Allen (two) have combined to play seven games with worse defense/special teams support than the Ravens’ worst game, but Jackson has had more overall games with below-average support. Buffalo’s offense has started a league-high 28 drives in opponent territory. The figure is 19 for the Bengals and 14 for Baltimore. That helps explain why Allen’s Bills average more points per drive but less EPA per drive.
Jackson is 6-3 when the Ravens’ combined EPA on defense/special teams was -7.0 or worse. Allen is 3-2 in those games. Burrow lags at 1-6, including 1-3 in games similar to the ones Jackson played in.
Why Barkley should be considered
Anyone arguing for a running back to win MVP risks getting laughed out of Math Club.
The statistical value associated with Barkley’s 2,005-yard rushing season (13 touchdowns, 5.8 yards per carry) doesn’t compare to the value quarterbacks contribute mostly through passing.
Barkley’s 46.9 EPA on rushes and receptions ranks second to the Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs (54.2) among running backs this season, which isn’t very exciting.
Only eight of the 35 running backs with at least 500 yards on the ground this season have produced positive EPA on even half of their rushes. Barkley is at 49 percent, meaning most of his runs actually cost the team value.
But there’s a case to be made that Barkley saved the Philadelphia Eagles this season by driving a philosophical shift that would not have occurred without him.
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For decades, the organization has embraced analytics, which have affirmed that passing is the key to winning. Philly has hired only offensive-minded coaches over the past 25 years: Andy Reid, Chip Kelly, Doug Pederson and now Nick Sirianni. Most of them were oriented toward the pass.
From 2000 through last season, the Eagles ranked No. 1 on the Cook Index, which measures how frequently teams pass in generally neutral situations: early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before score differential and time remaining exert more influence on play calling. They were eighth on the Cook Index last season — naturally inclined to pass first.
Philly has a highly paid quarterback in Jalen Hurts and two highly paid elite receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The offensive coordinator the Eagles hired before this season, Kellen Moore, was known primarily as a pass-oriented play caller.
But this team, with this dual-threat quarterback and this offensive line, appears much better when it runs the ball enough to reduce exposure to the dropback passing game. Did it take signing a running back of Barkley’s pedigree, ability and earning power for the Eagles to lean into the identity Hurts and the offense needed to embrace to be their best selves? An MVP case for Barkley could make that point.
The Eagles rank 25th on the Cook Index this season. Hurts is attempting about seven fewer passes per game. There’s a calm and consistency to the team’s offensive operation. Barkley appears to be the leading reason for that. He is also the ninth player to surpass 2,000 yards rushing, and he didn’t need a 17th game to get there (O.J. Simpson was the only runner to do it in a 14-game season).
The odds are against Barkley winning the award. Jackson, Allen and Burrow have provided more verifiable value to their teams. But it’s plausible to say Barkley’s contributions go beyond the impressive numbers.
Voters have no shortage of viable candidates this season.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson, right, and Josh Allen: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)
Coco Gauff moved her head-to-head with Iga Swiatek one small step in the right direction with a 6-4, 6-4 win of at times outrageous quality in Sydney. Gauff’s victory gave Team USA a 1-0 lead in the United Cup final, before Taylor Fritz edged past Hubert Hurkacz 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(4) to clinch the title.
Swiatek now leads Gauff 11-3, but the American has won their last two meetings as she reworks the forehand and serve that hampered her for much of the 2024 season. Gauff, who added grip expert Matt Daly to her coaching team after splitting with Brad Gilbert, whipped Swiatek’s notoriously heavy forehand onto the lines time and again throughout, varying height and spin to keep the world No. 2 from establishing the baseline rhythm that so often sees her dominate players.
As at the WTA Tour Finals in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Swiatek made more forehand unforced errors than Gauff — but her groundstroke performance in Riyadh was completely errant, while this was a much closer contest that the Pole led on multiple occasions.
Swiatek looked hampered by an issue with her left thigh in the last two games, a separate issue to the right-thigh injury that she has carried since beating Britain’s Katie Boulter. After a titanic eighth game of the second set in which Gauff broke for 4-4, it made for a disappointingly flat end to what had been an incredible encounter. Gauff will exit with renewed confidence in their thus-far slanted rivalry, while Swiatek will look at being a break up in both sets as both an opportunity missed and encouragement for the rest of the 2025 season.
“I have the belief now that I am one of the best players in the world,” Gauff said on the court.
Hurkacz earned a 2-0 lead at the start of the third-set tiebreak against Fritz, who reached his maiden Grand Slam final at last year’s U.S. Open and reached a career-high ranking of No. 4 in the world. But the Pole tightened when on the front foot in two baseline exchanges, moving forward at the wrong time and letting Fritz move out in front.
It is Team USA’s second United Cup title, after winning the inaugural 2022 edition against Italy. Poland has now reached the final twice, losing on both occasions.
(Top photo: Brendon Thorne / Getty Images)
Sports
Bears' game-winning field goal drops Packers in NFC playoff seeding, snaps 10-game losing streak
The Chicago Bears weren’t necessarily playing spoiler on Sunday when they took on the Green Bay Packers, but there was still a ton to play for as they wanted to finish the season on a high note.
That’s exactly what happened thanks to Cairo Santos drilling a 51-yard field goal to beat the Packers, 24-22, snapping Chicago’s 10-game losing streak to end the season with a 5-12 record.
It was also a historic kick made by Santos as the Bears finally defeated their NFC North foe, snapping an 11-game losing streak to the Packers.
Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos (8) celebrates his 51-yard game-winning field goal against the Packers, Jan. 5, 2025, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. (Dan Powers USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin)
The game-winning drive came after the Packers’ Brandon McManus drilled a 55-yard field goal to put Green Bay up 22-21 with 54 seconds left to play in the game.
Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense knew they had one timeout remaining and needed the right yardage to get in range for Santos to walk it off. The drive didn’t start off well as Williams was sacked, but a costly penalty changed everything.
A horse collar tackle was called, leading to a 15-yard swing that put Chicago on the 35-yard line instead of back on their own 13. The very next play saw Williams connect with fellow rookie Rome Odunze to put the Bears at midfield with 40 seconds to play.
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Then on 3rd-and-6 from Green Bay’s 46-yard line, Williams found D.J. Moore for 12 yards, but an illegal shift was called to negate the gain that would’ve given the Bears enough yards for Santos.
So on 3rd-and-11 with 15 seconds left and no timeouts remaining, Williams dropped back and found Moore in the middle of the field for an 18-yard pickup. Chicago rushed to the line of scrimmage and spiked the ball with two seconds left, giving Santos the chance to win it.
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams throws a pass during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. (Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images)
The kick was hit with enough distance and the right trajectory, and the celebrating ensued at Lambeau Field.
And while the Packers were already in the playoffs, the loss, coupled with the Washington Commanders’ own game-winning drive, dropped Green Bay to the No. 7 seed in the NFC. They have to go to Philadelphia to face the No. 2 Eagles instead of going to Los Angeles to face the No. 3 Rams.
In the box score, Williams was 21-for-29 for 148 yards with a touchdown pass to Moore, who had nine catches for 86 yards. D’Andre Swift also found the end zone on one of his 20 rushes for 65 yards.
Chicago also had one of the league’s best trick plays of the season as Josh Blackwell ran back a 94-yard punt for the game’s first touchdown after going virtually untouched with the Packers thinking a second Bears punt returner was going to catch it.
Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos kicks a 51-yard game-winning field goal against the Green Bay Packers, Jan. 5, 2025 at Lambeau Field. (Dan Powers USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin)
For the Packers, Jordan Love initially started this game but was taken out as a precaution with what was called an elbow injury. Malik Willis took over and went 10-of-13 for 136 yards. Josh Jacobs found the end zone for Green Bay again this season as well.
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UCLA has an answer for one of its biggest problems taking up more space than anyone else on the bench.
He stands 7 feet 3, wears size-18 shoes and has a wingspan rivaling that of some regional jets.
His name is Aday Mara, and he’s probably going to have to play significantly more minutes for the Bruins to get where they want to go these next two months, let alone March.
During his 11 minutes against Nebraska on Saturday, the sophomore center made both of his shots, blocked two shots, snagged a steal and threw a perfect pass to Tyler Bilodeau for a dunk. Not shown in the box score were the shots that Mara altered or prevented from being taken, not to mention his supersized screens and the improved spacing for the offense whenever he was in the game.
Mara played nearly all of the game’s final eight and a half minutes. It was no coincidence that during that stretch the No. 15 Bruins nearly wiped out a 12-point deficit before falling to the Cornhuskers, 66-58, at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
UCLA coach Mick Cronin, who has acknowledged needing to play Mara more for at least a month, said the big man’s minutes were limited Saturday because of depth issues. Eric Dailey Jr. did not play because of an ongoing issue with a facial injury and William Kyle III was out after undergoing a recent undisclosed medical procedure.
Those absences left Mara and Bilodeau as the team’s only remaining big men. The Bruins were at their best when both were on the court together, a lineup that Cronin said he would like to have used more.
“It’s hard because you play them a lot together and they get tired at the same time, you’ve got nobody to put in,” Cronin said. “You’re playing Kobe [Johnson] at center, so Aday continues to improve. I’d love to play him a lot more and it’s coming.”
It can’t come soon enough given Mara’s potential to transform his team’s trajectory. Here are five takeaways from UCLA’s first loss in Big Ten play:
More Mara, please
Playing Mara additional minutes might not be optional in the Bruins’ next game.
Michigan features a pair of 7-foot starters in Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, who will require UCLA to counter with size or risk getting mauled in the frontcourt.
Cronin has said he was hopeful that Dailey and Kyle could return for the game against the Wolverines, giving him the option to play Mara far more than his season average of 9.8 minutes per game. Their return will also allow Cronin to optimize his lineups.
Playing Mara alongside Bilodeau has the added benefit of allowing the latter to spend more time at his natural position, preventing the 6-foot-9 forward from wearing down because he has to exert so much energy defending bigger counterparts.
“I like playing with Aday,” Bilodeau said. “He’s a great passer, great inside, really long and can help a lot on defense around the rim, so it’s awesome.”
Who’s the point?
Dylan Andrews’ extended slump has left Cronin with another big decision.
Does he continue to let Andrews try to play his way back into form or let his point guard come off the bench to give another playmaker a larger role?
Skyy Clark has done a better job of running the offense in recent weeks but suffered several shots to the shoulder during the game against the Cornhuskers. If Clark is available against the Wolverines, he could be the primary point guard while Andrews plays fewer minutes as a defensive specialist who takes only a handful of shots while trying to rebuild his confidence.
Over his last three games, Andrews has more turnovers than assists while averaging 1.3 points.
“Dylan Andrews,” Cronin said, “got to play way better.”
Line them up
Moving Andrews to the bench would give Cronin some interesting options for his starting lineup, assuming everyone was available.
One idea would be to go with Clark, Johnson, Dailey, Bilodeau and Mara. That lineup leaves plenty of quality replacements while providing Cronin with the flexibility to play Bilodeau some at the five spot so that Mara and Kyle don’t need to combine for 40 minutes.
After assessing which lineups are working best, Cronin could go with a mix of reserves and starters to close games. The Bruins’ depth has kept every player reasonably fresh, no one averaging more than Bilodeau’s 27.3 minutes per game.
Boosters needed
Reserves Dominick Harris and Trent Perry couldn’t provide a needed boost to their shorthanded team Saturday, combining to go scoreless with three turnovers.
They can only hope their coach’s trust in them continues when the Bruins get back to full strength.
His five quality minutes against Gonzaga notwithstanding, Perry has struggled since the start of December. He’s looked rattled in spot minutes against quality teams while also routinely getting beaten on defense, though it’s important to remember he’s just a freshman going through all this for the first time.
Harris is a redshirt senior who has not been able to find any sort of rhythm. After ranking No. 3 in the nation last season by making 44.8% of his three-pointers at Loyola Marymount, Harris has made just two of 18 shots (11.1%) from long range in his first season with the Bruins.
Home cooking?
Many UCLA fans received a robocall from Cronin last week, imploring them to come to the Michigan game at Pauley Pavilion to support the team.
The Bruins need the attendance boost given they are averaging just 4,830 fans for home games. Only USC, averaging 4,163, has had smaller home crowds among Big Ten teams.
If UCLA wants to contend for a conference title during its first Big Ten season, it’s going to need to win nearly every home game after learning just how hard it is to win on the road.
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