Sports
NFL MVP race: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow? Plus, the case for Saquon Barkley
When assessing NFL MVP candidates one year ago, I lamented the dearth of candidates producing at levels high enough for consideration.
There’s no such problem as the 2024 MVP race enters its final stages.
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Saquon Barkley are superstar talents whose conventional and/or advanced stats match historic standards for MVP consideration.
Jackson was my favorite when assessing the situation one month ago, partly because his production was allowing Baltimore to win despite terrible support from the Ravens’ defense and special teams. The picture looks different now. Allen and Burrow have surged. Barkley, having topped 2,000 yards rushing, fits into a different category as a non-quarterback. The best case for him goes well beyond statistics.
We’ll start with the quarterbacks because they are obviously most valuable. We’ll finish with the special case for Barkley, who has helped transform the most pass-oriented organization of the past quarter-century.
The best MVP candidates, in my view, are high-producing, dynamic QBs for teams that win despite lackluster support from their defenses and special teams. These are the ultimate win-because-of quarterbacks.
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Patrick Mahomes has set the standard. He led the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs to Super Bowl glory after the team finished 29th in combined expected points added (EPA) on defense/special teams. He did this even though his defense/special teams failed to come alive in the playoffs the way Peyton Manning’s 2006 Super Bowl-winning Indianapolis Colts did after ranking 32nd in the regular season (in that case, Bob Sanders’ return to the defense helped Indy win it all despite Manning tossing three touchdown passes with seven interceptions in the postseason).
Mahomes proved to be the ultimate MVP. His case this season is tougher to make in the absence of elite statistical production, so he’s not part of this discussion, which focuses on betting favorites for the award (imagine if someone had told you before the season that Kansas City would take a 15-1 record into Week 18 without Mahomes — the preseason favorite at +500 — registering on the MVP radar).
Press play or drag the slider on the chart below to see how leading MVP candidates’ production and betting odds have shifted over the season, week by week. Burrow was far out of contention, as distant as +25000 three weeks ago and +15000 one week ago, until jumping to +2000 after Week 17’s overtime win over the Denver Broncos.
MVP voting closes before playoff results are known, so we can’t make a full evaluation. We do not even know whether Burrow’s 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals (29th in EPA on defense/special teams) will finish with a winning record, let alone reach the postseason. Jackson’s Ravens are 11-5 despite ranking 24th in EPA on defense/special teams, while Allen’s Buffalo Bills are 13-3 while ranking 15th in those phases that usually are critical for winning. Allen is expected to sit most of the Bills’ finale, while Burrow and Jackson could add to their resumes.
Allen overtook Jackson as the betting favorite after a Week 11 to 15 stretch that saw Buffalo beat Kansas City, put up 42 points on the Los Angeles Rams and win at Detroit, 48-42. Jackson’s Ravens lost in Weeks 11 and 13 before taking off Week 14 for their bye.
That stretch is fresher and more relevant to the current discussion than a Week 4 to 5 run featuring Baltimore’s victories over Buffalo (35-10) and Cincinnati (41-38). We’ll take the full season into account here.
As fans debate the MVP merits of their favorite players, let’s take a quick look at basic stats for Jackson, Allen and Burrow before evaluating them through other contextual lenses.
Establishing basic MVP credentials for the leading QB candidates
Ten quarterbacks have combined to win 21 MVPs since 2000.
Through 16 games, those QBs averaged 4,373 yards passing with 37 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 108.8 passer rating during their MVP seasons, per TruMedia.
They averaged 40 total touchdowns with 11 turnovers.
They averaged 165.9 total EPA on pass plays and rushes (0.27 per play), not counting kneeldowns.
| QB | JACKSON | ALLEN | BURROW |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Cmp-att |
300-442 |
307-483 |
423-606 |
|
Cmp% |
67.9% |
63.6% |
69.8% |
|
Pass yds |
3,955 |
3,731 |
4,641 |
|
Yds/att |
8.9 |
7.7 |
7.7 |
|
TD-INT |
39-4 |
28-6 |
42-8 |
|
Rating |
121.6 |
101.4 |
109.8 |
|
Sacked |
23 |
14 |
44 |
|
Rush yds |
864 |
539 |
212 |
|
Rush TD |
4 |
12 |
2 |
|
Total TDs |
43 |
40 |
44 |
|
Turnovers |
9 |
8 |
13 |
|
Total EPA |
172.8 |
155.5 |
116.7 |
|
EPA/play |
+0.29 |
+0.27 |
+0.15 |
|
EPA/pass play |
+0.33 |
+0.24 |
+0.17 |
|
EPA/pass att |
+0.42 |
+0.25 |
+0.30 |
Jackson, Allen and Burrow measure up to those standards except for Burrow’s 116.7 total EPA, which would rank 19th among those 21 MVP seasons, just behind 2021 Aaron Rodgers and ahead of 2003 Steve McNair. The lowest since 2000, by far, belonged to Jackson in 2023. His 51.5 EPA through 16 games was less than half the 16-game totals for the next-lowest MVP since 2000 (2015 Cam Newton).
Assessing MVP-caliber performance frequency: Advantage, Jackson?
As noted, those 10 quarterbacks with 21 MVP seasons since 2000 averaged 0.27 EPA per play when kneeldowns are excluded.
The table below stacks Jackson, Allen and Burrow by their best to worst EPA per play for each of their 16 starts this season.
Jackson met the MVP threshold of +0.27 EPA per play 11 times, compared to eight times for Allen and four for Burrow. Jackson also had the fewest games with negative EPA per play.
MVP candidates’ best to worst EPA per play
| Rank | Jackson | Allen | Burrow |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
0.95 (W) |
0.79 (W) |
0.67 (L) |
|
2 |
0.65 (W) |
0.65 (W) |
0.39 (L) |
|
3 |
0.64 (W) |
0.65 (L) |
0.28 (W) |
|
4 |
0.61 (W) |
0.59 (W) |
0.28 (W) |
|
5 |
0.59 (W) |
0.38 (W) |
0.24 (L) |
|
6 |
0.58 (W) |
0.34 (W) |
0.23 (W) |
|
7 |
0.57 (W) |
0.33 (W) |
0.22 (W) |
|
8 |
0.41 (W) |
0.28 (W) |
0.16 (W) |
|
9 |
0.34 (W) |
0.26 (W) |
0.15 (L) |
|
10 |
0.34 (W) |
0.23 (W) |
0.12 (W) |
|
11 |
0.27 (W) |
0.22 (W) |
0.10 (L) |
|
12 |
0.12 (L) |
0.20 (W) |
0.05 (L) |
|
13 |
0.05 (L) |
0.05 (W) |
-0.07 (L) |
|
14 |
0.01 (L) |
-0.07 (W) |
-0.10 (W) |
|
15 |
-0.04 (L) |
-0.08 (L) |
-0.19 (L) |
|
16 |
-0.25 (L) |
-0.23 (L) |
-0.45 (W) |
|
Avg |
0.29 |
0.27 |
0.15 |
Jackson accounts for seven of the top 14 single-game figures.
Median ranks for their 48 single-game figures: 20th for Jackson, 23rd for Allen, 30th for Burrow.
This is one way to get a feel for consistency.
The Ravens have gone 11-0 when Jackson has produced at the historic MVP level, but 0-5 when he did not.
The splits are 7-1 and 6-2 for Allen, compared to 2-2 and 6-6 for Burrow.
This suggests Baltimore has needed MVP production from its quarterback to win.
Burrow has elite receiving weapons in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Allen has a strong offensive line. Jackson has a dominant running back in Derrick Henry. These are factors worth noting, but I don’t see them as significant enough to tip the balance one way or another.
Trading places: Burrow overtakes Jackson atop Betrayal Index, but wins less frequently
If the best MVP candidates are indeed dynamic quarterbacks whose elite production helps their teams overcome weak defense/special teams to win, refreshing the Betrayal Index can help.
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Burrow and Jackson have swapped places at the top since our check-in after Week 10, but Jackson has a much better record (11-5, compared to 8-8 for Burrow), which factors into the MVP equation. Being good enough on offense to overcome the other components and win is the goal. Sometimes, that’s unrealistic, but no MVP quarterback’s team has had worse than an 11-5 record from a win percentage standpoint.
The table below shows all 32 current quarterbacks with at least eight starts this season. It stacks them by the difference between where these players rank among each other in QB EPA per start, and where their teams rank in defense/special teams EPA during each QB’s starts. Dallas has two players on the chart. Cleveland has none.
High-producing QBs with weak defenses/special teams rise to the top. These are the most “betrayed” quarterbacks. Burrow and Jackson lead the way.
The San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy and the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa are close behind Burrow and Jackson, something for their teams to consider when making full-season evaluations.
QBs appearing in the middle of the Betrayal Index rank about the same in QB EPA and team defense/special teams EPA, whether good or bad. That’s how Jordan Love (good QB EPA, good team defense/special teams EPA) and Gardner Minshew II (bad, bad) appear in close proximity.
Low-producing QBs with strong defenses/special teams fall to the bottom. It’s striking to see the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud lagging to such a degree.
Taking this another step with our QB MVP frontrunners, the table below shows just how many games Jackson, Allen and Burrow have played with strong, average and weak support from their defenses/special teams.
MVP candidates’ best to worst team D/ST EPA by game
| Rank | Jackson | Allen | Burrow |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
16.7 (W) |
16.6 (W) |
20.3 (W) |
|
2 |
11.8 (W) |
15.8 (W) |
13.6 (W) |
|
3 |
10.9 (W) |
15.3 (W) |
13.6 (W) |
|
4 |
9.0 (W) |
13.2 (W) |
10.1 (W) |
|
5 |
7.4 (L) |
12.4 (W) |
2.0 (L) |
|
6 |
2.9 (W) |
12.0 (W) |
1.4 (W) |
|
7 |
-1.2 (L) |
9.9 (W) |
1.0 (W) |
|
8 |
-7.1 (W) |
1.2 (W) |
0.7 (L) |
|
9 |
-7.3 (L) |
0.6 (L) |
-3.0 (W) |
|
10 |
-7.4 (L) |
-1.1 (W) |
-10.5 (L) |
|
11 |
-8.3 (W) |
-5.0 (W) |
-10.6 (W) |
|
12 |
-9.9 (W) |
-8.0 (W) |
-15.4 (L) |
|
13 |
-10.9 (L) |
-9.4 (W) |
-15.4 (L) |
|
14 |
-11.9 (W) |
-13.8 (L) |
-20.3 (L) |
|
15 |
-12.0 (W) |
-19.9 (W) |
-22 (L) |
|
16 |
-15.1 (W) |
-32.6 (L) |
-32.5 (L) |
|
Totals |
-32.4 |
+7.2 |
-67 |
Burrow (five) and Allen (two) have combined to play seven games with worse defense/special teams support than the Ravens’ worst game, but Jackson has had more overall games with below-average support. Buffalo’s offense has started a league-high 28 drives in opponent territory. The figure is 19 for the Bengals and 14 for Baltimore. That helps explain why Allen’s Bills average more points per drive but less EPA per drive.
Jackson is 6-3 when the Ravens’ combined EPA on defense/special teams was -7.0 or worse. Allen is 3-2 in those games. Burrow lags at 1-6, including 1-3 in games similar to the ones Jackson played in.
Why Barkley should be considered
Anyone arguing for a running back to win MVP risks getting laughed out of Math Club.
The statistical value associated with Barkley’s 2,005-yard rushing season (13 touchdowns, 5.8 yards per carry) doesn’t compare to the value quarterbacks contribute mostly through passing.
Barkley’s 46.9 EPA on rushes and receptions ranks second to the Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs (54.2) among running backs this season, which isn’t very exciting.
Only eight of the 35 running backs with at least 500 yards on the ground this season have produced positive EPA on even half of their rushes. Barkley is at 49 percent, meaning most of his runs actually cost the team value.
But there’s a case to be made that Barkley saved the Philadelphia Eagles this season by driving a philosophical shift that would not have occurred without him.
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For decades, the organization has embraced analytics, which have affirmed that passing is the key to winning. Philly has hired only offensive-minded coaches over the past 25 years: Andy Reid, Chip Kelly, Doug Pederson and now Nick Sirianni. Most of them were oriented toward the pass.
From 2000 through last season, the Eagles ranked No. 1 on the Cook Index, which measures how frequently teams pass in generally neutral situations: early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before score differential and time remaining exert more influence on play calling. They were eighth on the Cook Index last season — naturally inclined to pass first.
Philly has a highly paid quarterback in Jalen Hurts and two highly paid elite receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The offensive coordinator the Eagles hired before this season, Kellen Moore, was known primarily as a pass-oriented play caller.
But this team, with this dual-threat quarterback and this offensive line, appears much better when it runs the ball enough to reduce exposure to the dropback passing game. Did it take signing a running back of Barkley’s pedigree, ability and earning power for the Eagles to lean into the identity Hurts and the offense needed to embrace to be their best selves? An MVP case for Barkley could make that point.
The Eagles rank 25th on the Cook Index this season. Hurts is attempting about seven fewer passes per game. There’s a calm and consistency to the team’s offensive operation. Barkley appears to be the leading reason for that. He is also the ninth player to surpass 2,000 yards rushing, and he didn’t need a 17th game to get there (O.J. Simpson was the only runner to do it in a 14-game season).
The odds are against Barkley winning the award. Jackson, Allen and Burrow have provided more verifiable value to their teams. But it’s plausible to say Barkley’s contributions go beyond the impressive numbers.
Voters have no shortage of viable candidates this season.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson, right, and Josh Allen: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)
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NBA player calls for Hawks to cancel their ‘Magic City’ strip club promotional night out of respect for women
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An NBA player has taken exception to an Atlanta Hawks promotional night, which is a nod to a famed strip club in the city.
The Hawks have “Magic City Night” scheduled for March 16 against the Orlando Magic, but a player for neither team isn’t too fond of paying tribute to a strip club, which has been famed for its late-night stories involving athletes, celebrities and more.
While the Hawks call it an ode to a “cultural institution,” San Antonio Spurs center Luke Kornet shared his displeasure in a letter posted on Medium.
Luke Kornet of the San Antonio Spurs reaches for the ball during the third quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on Feb. 26, 2026 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Ishika Samant/Getty Images)
Kornet, a nine-year veteran and 2024 NBA champion with the Boston Celtics, called for the Hawks’ promotional night to be canceled later this month, saying that it is disrespectful to women to honor the strip club.
“In its press release, the Hawks failed to acknowledge that this place is, as the business itself boasts, “Atlanta’s premier strip club.” Given this fact, I would like to respectfully ask that the Atlanta Hawks cancel this promotional night with Magic City,” Kornet wrote in his post.
“The NBA should desire to protect and esteem women, many of whom work diligently every day to make this the best basketball league in the world. We should promote an atmosphere that is protective and respectful of the daughters, wives, sisters, mothers, and partners that we know and love.”
The Hawks boasted about the theme night in its press release, including a live performance by famous Atlanta rapper T.I., a co-branded, limited-edition hoodie and even the establishment’s “World Famous” lemon-pepper chicken wings in the arena.
A general view of signage with the State Farm Arena logo on Nov. 14, 2025, outside State Farm Arena, in Atlanta, GA. (Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire)
“This collaboration and theme night is very meaningful to me after all the work that we did to put together ’Magic City: An American Fantasy’,” said Hawks principal owner, filmmaker and actor, Jami Gertz, said in a press release. “The iconic Atlanta institution has made such an incredible impact on our city and its unique culture.”
Kornet wrote that allowing the night to continue “without protest would reflect poorly on us as an NBA community, “specifically in being complicit in the potential objectification and mistreatment of women in our society.”
Kornet wrote that “others throughout the league” were surprised by the Hawks’ decision to have this promotional night.
“We desire to provide an environment where fans of all ages can safely come and enjoy the game of basketball and where we can celebrate the history and culture of communities in good conscience. The celebration of a strip club is not conduct aligned with that vision,” he wrote.
Luke Kornet of the San Antonio Spurs defends against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on Jan. 31, 2026 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
The Hawks have seen good reception for the promotional night, as Tick Pick reported a get-in price was initially $10 for the game and has since skyrocketed to $94.
Kornet is in his first season with the Spurs, his sixth NBA team, where he has played mainly in a bench role. He averages 7.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game across 50 contests.
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SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — How do you improve on the perfect ending?
Clayton Kershaw stood in the desert heat Monday, wearing a far darker shade of blue than the Dodgers do. He does not need a medal, or a chance to fail. His election to the Hall of Fame will be a formality.
In his farewell year, the Dodgers won the World Series, becoming baseball’s first back-to-back champions in 25 years. He secured a critical out. He bathed in adoration at the championship rally, and he told the fans he would be one of them this year.
“I’m going to watch,” he hollered that day, “just like all of you.”
Four months later, he was back in uniform.
He wore a dark blue jersey with red-and-white piping. As Team USA ran through its first World Baseball Classic workout, Kershaw participated in pitchers’ fielding practice and shagged fly balls during batting practice. He could have been home with his five kids, and instead he was rushing off the mound to take a throw at first base.
That November night in Toronto, as it turned out, was not the last time we would see him in uniform.
“Feels good,” he said Monday. “I wouldn’t put on a uniform for anything else. This is a special thing.”
He put the World Baseball Classic into red, white and blue perspective.
“It’s a bucket list thing for me,” he said.
He is either self-deprecating or painfully honest about his capabilities right now, or perhaps a little of both.
The last World Baseball Classic came down to Shohei Ohtani pitching to Mike Trout. This one could come down to Kershaw pitching to Ohtani.
“I think, for our country’s sake, it’s probably better if I don’t,” Kershaw said.
Former Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw fields a ground ball during a workout at Papago Park Sports Complex on Monday.
(Chris Coduto / Getty Images)
Never say never. Team USA planned to run a tremendous rotation of Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Joe Ryan and Logan Webb, but now Skubal says he will pitch just once in the tournament. Skenes says he’ll pitch twice. Ryan says he won’t pitch in the first round, at least.
Kershaw might be needed beyond the role he was promised: save the team from using the current major league pitchers in blowouts or extra innings.
In 11 career at-bats against Kershaw, Ohtani has no hits. Kershaw won’t duck the assignment if gets it, but he considers it so unlikely he is happy to share his game plan publicly.
“It’s throw it, pitch away, play away, hope he flies out to left,” Kershaw said. “Don’t throw it in his barrel.
“I can’t imagine, if it comes down to USA versus Japan, with the arms that we have, that I’ll be needed. But I’ll be ready.”
Kershaw’s average fastball velocity dropped to 89 mph last season, but he led the majors in winning percentage. He could eat innings for some team — maybe even the Dodgers, with Blake Snell and Gavin Stone all but certain to be unavailable on opening day.
Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, right, celebrates with teammates after the Dodgers defeated the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2025 World Series title.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
But, even with his success last year and even with the joy of wearing a uniform once again, he insists he isn’t interested in pitching beyond the WBC.
“I don’t want to,” he said. “You can’t end it better than I did last year. I had a great time last year. It was an absolute blast and honor to be on that team. I think that was the perfect way to end it. Honestly, I don’t know if I would have enough in the tank to pitch for a full season again. I’m really at peace with that decision.
“This is kind of a weird one-off thing, but you can’t really turn down this opportunity. It wasn’t easy to get ready for this, with no motivation for a season, but I actually am in a pretty good spot with my arm. I’ll be fine. If they need me, I’ll be ready.”
Kershaw said he has kept in touch with his old Dodgers teammates, with some connecting on video calls from the weight room or clubhouse at Camelback Ranch. He arrived in the Phoenix area two days before the workout, but he skipped a trip to Camelback Ranch.
“I’ve thought about it,” he said. “I miss the guys. I think it’s probably just better, at least for this first year, for me mentally to just stay away, just for spring training.”
Kershaw said he would be at Dodger Stadium for the championship ring ceremony March 27.
He is content with what he calls “Dad life.” He and his wife, Ellen, just welcomed their fifth child, and Dad life includes lots of shuttles to baseball and basketball practice.
“I run an Uber service,” Kershaw said.
This wouldn’t be a Dodgers story these days without some reference to the team’s big spending so, for what it’s worth, Kershaw spent some time Tuesday chatting with Skubal, who will be the grand prize on the free-agent market next winter, or whenever the likely lockout might end.
That’s a rational explanation, Kershaw says, for Skubal pitching just once in the WBC.
“Everybody knows the situation he is in, contract-wise,” Kershaw said. “Any innings we can get out of him is a huge bonus to this team. He’s great. Super competitive. We’re honored to have him.”
Should we assume Skubal will be pitching for the Dodgers next season? Kershaw laughed.
“No comment,” he said, then walked away to get ready for the first game of his post-retirement life.
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Basketball Hall of Famer Charles Barkley sounded off on the frenzied reactions to the U.S. men’s hockey team getting invited to the White House by President Donald Trump.
Trump talked to the Olympic gold medal-winning team immediately after they defeated Canada in overtime last weekend. He said they would be invited to his State of the Union address and added that he needed to invite the women’s team as well or he would be “impeached.”
Charles Barkley sits courtside against the Minnesota Timberwolves during an NBA Cup game at Mortgage Matchup Center on Nov. 21, 2025. (Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images)
Trump critics took the joke as a shot at the women’s team, which sparked questions from NHL and Professional Women’s Hockey League reporters as the players returned to their respective club teams.
“I’m proud of the United States men. I’m proud of the United States women. You should have invited both of them to the White House, but it shouldn’t have been disrespect, misogyny,” Barkley said on the “Steam Room” podcast. “Like, yo, man, why do y’all have to mess everything up? Everything isn’t Democrat, Republican, conservative, liberal. That’s why we got this divided, screwed up country. Stop it man. Because, you know, the public, they’re idiots. They’re fools. They can’t think for themselves. I know y’all say stuff to trigger them. Y’all say stuff and y’all know they’re going to be fools.”
Barkley lamented that the average person would get riled up over the supposed controversy.
The U.S. team poses for a group photo after defeating Canada in the men’s ice hockey gold medal game at the 2026 Winter Olympics. Milan, Italy, on Feb. 22, 2026. (Luca Bruno/AP Photo)
“We don’t have to fall for stupidity. But we do – that’s my point. These people out here are stupid. They need something to trigger them. Just because they want us to be stupid. We don’t have to be stupid. He should have invited both teams to the White House. Simple as that. Guys who didn’t want to go shouldn’t have to explain why they didn’t go.”
The former Philadelphia 76ers, Houston Rockets and Phoenix Suns star made clear he would go to the White House regardless of whether Trump was in office.
“I’ve said this before, I’m not a Trump guy. But if I got invited to the White House, I would go. I’m not a Trump guy – I want to make that clear. But I respect the office,” Barkley said. “He’s the president of the United States. But if guys don’t want to go, I understand that too. It doesn’t have to be a talking point. It doesn’t have to be un-American.
Megan Keller (5) celebrates with a flag alongside Cayla Barnes (3) of Team United States after scoring the game-winning goal in overtime during the women’s gold medal match against Canada on Day 13 of the Milan Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games at Milan Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy, on Feb. 19, 2026. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
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“I just wish y’all would stop falling for the stupidity.”
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