Sports
NFL MVP race: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow? Plus, the case for Saquon Barkley
When assessing NFL MVP candidates one year ago, I lamented the dearth of candidates producing at levels high enough for consideration.
There’s no such problem as the 2024 MVP race enters its final stages.
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Saquon Barkley are superstar talents whose conventional and/or advanced stats match historic standards for MVP consideration.
Jackson was my favorite when assessing the situation one month ago, partly because his production was allowing Baltimore to win despite terrible support from the Ravens’ defense and special teams. The picture looks different now. Allen and Burrow have surged. Barkley, having topped 2,000 yards rushing, fits into a different category as a non-quarterback. The best case for him goes well beyond statistics.
We’ll start with the quarterbacks because they are obviously most valuable. We’ll finish with the special case for Barkley, who has helped transform the most pass-oriented organization of the past quarter-century.
The best MVP candidates, in my view, are high-producing, dynamic QBs for teams that win despite lackluster support from their defenses and special teams. These are the ultimate win-because-of quarterbacks.
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Patrick Mahomes has set the standard. He led the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs to Super Bowl glory after the team finished 29th in combined expected points added (EPA) on defense/special teams. He did this even though his defense/special teams failed to come alive in the playoffs the way Peyton Manning’s 2006 Super Bowl-winning Indianapolis Colts did after ranking 32nd in the regular season (in that case, Bob Sanders’ return to the defense helped Indy win it all despite Manning tossing three touchdown passes with seven interceptions in the postseason).
Mahomes proved to be the ultimate MVP. His case this season is tougher to make in the absence of elite statistical production, so he’s not part of this discussion, which focuses on betting favorites for the award (imagine if someone had told you before the season that Kansas City would take a 15-1 record into Week 18 without Mahomes — the preseason favorite at +500 — registering on the MVP radar).
Press play or drag the slider on the chart below to see how leading MVP candidates’ production and betting odds have shifted over the season, week by week. Burrow was far out of contention, as distant as +25000 three weeks ago and +15000 one week ago, until jumping to +2000 after Week 17’s overtime win over the Denver Broncos.
MVP voting closes before playoff results are known, so we can’t make a full evaluation. We do not even know whether Burrow’s 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals (29th in EPA on defense/special teams) will finish with a winning record, let alone reach the postseason. Jackson’s Ravens are 11-5 despite ranking 24th in EPA on defense/special teams, while Allen’s Buffalo Bills are 13-3 while ranking 15th in those phases that usually are critical for winning. Allen is expected to sit most of the Bills’ finale, while Burrow and Jackson could add to their resumes.
Allen overtook Jackson as the betting favorite after a Week 11 to 15 stretch that saw Buffalo beat Kansas City, put up 42 points on the Los Angeles Rams and win at Detroit, 48-42. Jackson’s Ravens lost in Weeks 11 and 13 before taking off Week 14 for their bye.
That stretch is fresher and more relevant to the current discussion than a Week 4 to 5 run featuring Baltimore’s victories over Buffalo (35-10) and Cincinnati (41-38). We’ll take the full season into account here.
As fans debate the MVP merits of their favorite players, let’s take a quick look at basic stats for Jackson, Allen and Burrow before evaluating them through other contextual lenses.
Establishing basic MVP credentials for the leading QB candidates
Ten quarterbacks have combined to win 21 MVPs since 2000.
Through 16 games, those QBs averaged 4,373 yards passing with 37 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 108.8 passer rating during their MVP seasons, per TruMedia.
They averaged 40 total touchdowns with 11 turnovers.
They averaged 165.9 total EPA on pass plays and rushes (0.27 per play), not counting kneeldowns.
| QB | JACKSON | ALLEN | BURROW |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Cmp-att |
300-442 |
307-483 |
423-606 |
|
Cmp% |
67.9% |
63.6% |
69.8% |
|
Pass yds |
3,955 |
3,731 |
4,641 |
|
Yds/att |
8.9 |
7.7 |
7.7 |
|
TD-INT |
39-4 |
28-6 |
42-8 |
|
Rating |
121.6 |
101.4 |
109.8 |
|
Sacked |
23 |
14 |
44 |
|
Rush yds |
864 |
539 |
212 |
|
Rush TD |
4 |
12 |
2 |
|
Total TDs |
43 |
40 |
44 |
|
Turnovers |
9 |
8 |
13 |
|
Total EPA |
172.8 |
155.5 |
116.7 |
|
EPA/play |
+0.29 |
+0.27 |
+0.15 |
|
EPA/pass play |
+0.33 |
+0.24 |
+0.17 |
|
EPA/pass att |
+0.42 |
+0.25 |
+0.30 |
Jackson, Allen and Burrow measure up to those standards except for Burrow’s 116.7 total EPA, which would rank 19th among those 21 MVP seasons, just behind 2021 Aaron Rodgers and ahead of 2003 Steve McNair. The lowest since 2000, by far, belonged to Jackson in 2023. His 51.5 EPA through 16 games was less than half the 16-game totals for the next-lowest MVP since 2000 (2015 Cam Newton).
Assessing MVP-caliber performance frequency: Advantage, Jackson?
As noted, those 10 quarterbacks with 21 MVP seasons since 2000 averaged 0.27 EPA per play when kneeldowns are excluded.
The table below stacks Jackson, Allen and Burrow by their best to worst EPA per play for each of their 16 starts this season.
Jackson met the MVP threshold of +0.27 EPA per play 11 times, compared to eight times for Allen and four for Burrow. Jackson also had the fewest games with negative EPA per play.
MVP candidates’ best to worst EPA per play
| Rank | Jackson | Allen | Burrow |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
0.95 (W) |
0.79 (W) |
0.67 (L) |
|
2 |
0.65 (W) |
0.65 (W) |
0.39 (L) |
|
3 |
0.64 (W) |
0.65 (L) |
0.28 (W) |
|
4 |
0.61 (W) |
0.59 (W) |
0.28 (W) |
|
5 |
0.59 (W) |
0.38 (W) |
0.24 (L) |
|
6 |
0.58 (W) |
0.34 (W) |
0.23 (W) |
|
7 |
0.57 (W) |
0.33 (W) |
0.22 (W) |
|
8 |
0.41 (W) |
0.28 (W) |
0.16 (W) |
|
9 |
0.34 (W) |
0.26 (W) |
0.15 (L) |
|
10 |
0.34 (W) |
0.23 (W) |
0.12 (W) |
|
11 |
0.27 (W) |
0.22 (W) |
0.10 (L) |
|
12 |
0.12 (L) |
0.20 (W) |
0.05 (L) |
|
13 |
0.05 (L) |
0.05 (W) |
-0.07 (L) |
|
14 |
0.01 (L) |
-0.07 (W) |
-0.10 (W) |
|
15 |
-0.04 (L) |
-0.08 (L) |
-0.19 (L) |
|
16 |
-0.25 (L) |
-0.23 (L) |
-0.45 (W) |
|
Avg |
0.29 |
0.27 |
0.15 |
Jackson accounts for seven of the top 14 single-game figures.
Median ranks for their 48 single-game figures: 20th for Jackson, 23rd for Allen, 30th for Burrow.
This is one way to get a feel for consistency.
The Ravens have gone 11-0 when Jackson has produced at the historic MVP level, but 0-5 when he did not.
The splits are 7-1 and 6-2 for Allen, compared to 2-2 and 6-6 for Burrow.
This suggests Baltimore has needed MVP production from its quarterback to win.
Burrow has elite receiving weapons in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Allen has a strong offensive line. Jackson has a dominant running back in Derrick Henry. These are factors worth noting, but I don’t see them as significant enough to tip the balance one way or another.
Trading places: Burrow overtakes Jackson atop Betrayal Index, but wins less frequently
If the best MVP candidates are indeed dynamic quarterbacks whose elite production helps their teams overcome weak defense/special teams to win, refreshing the Betrayal Index can help.
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Burrow and Jackson have swapped places at the top since our check-in after Week 10, but Jackson has a much better record (11-5, compared to 8-8 for Burrow), which factors into the MVP equation. Being good enough on offense to overcome the other components and win is the goal. Sometimes, that’s unrealistic, but no MVP quarterback’s team has had worse than an 11-5 record from a win percentage standpoint.
The table below shows all 32 current quarterbacks with at least eight starts this season. It stacks them by the difference between where these players rank among each other in QB EPA per start, and where their teams rank in defense/special teams EPA during each QB’s starts. Dallas has two players on the chart. Cleveland has none.
High-producing QBs with weak defenses/special teams rise to the top. These are the most “betrayed” quarterbacks. Burrow and Jackson lead the way.
The San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy and the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa are close behind Burrow and Jackson, something for their teams to consider when making full-season evaluations.
QBs appearing in the middle of the Betrayal Index rank about the same in QB EPA and team defense/special teams EPA, whether good or bad. That’s how Jordan Love (good QB EPA, good team defense/special teams EPA) and Gardner Minshew II (bad, bad) appear in close proximity.
Low-producing QBs with strong defenses/special teams fall to the bottom. It’s striking to see the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud lagging to such a degree.
Taking this another step with our QB MVP frontrunners, the table below shows just how many games Jackson, Allen and Burrow have played with strong, average and weak support from their defenses/special teams.
MVP candidates’ best to worst team D/ST EPA by game
| Rank | Jackson | Allen | Burrow |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
16.7 (W) |
16.6 (W) |
20.3 (W) |
|
2 |
11.8 (W) |
15.8 (W) |
13.6 (W) |
|
3 |
10.9 (W) |
15.3 (W) |
13.6 (W) |
|
4 |
9.0 (W) |
13.2 (W) |
10.1 (W) |
|
5 |
7.4 (L) |
12.4 (W) |
2.0 (L) |
|
6 |
2.9 (W) |
12.0 (W) |
1.4 (W) |
|
7 |
-1.2 (L) |
9.9 (W) |
1.0 (W) |
|
8 |
-7.1 (W) |
1.2 (W) |
0.7 (L) |
|
9 |
-7.3 (L) |
0.6 (L) |
-3.0 (W) |
|
10 |
-7.4 (L) |
-1.1 (W) |
-10.5 (L) |
|
11 |
-8.3 (W) |
-5.0 (W) |
-10.6 (W) |
|
12 |
-9.9 (W) |
-8.0 (W) |
-15.4 (L) |
|
13 |
-10.9 (L) |
-9.4 (W) |
-15.4 (L) |
|
14 |
-11.9 (W) |
-13.8 (L) |
-20.3 (L) |
|
15 |
-12.0 (W) |
-19.9 (W) |
-22 (L) |
|
16 |
-15.1 (W) |
-32.6 (L) |
-32.5 (L) |
|
Totals |
-32.4 |
+7.2 |
-67 |
Burrow (five) and Allen (two) have combined to play seven games with worse defense/special teams support than the Ravens’ worst game, but Jackson has had more overall games with below-average support. Buffalo’s offense has started a league-high 28 drives in opponent territory. The figure is 19 for the Bengals and 14 for Baltimore. That helps explain why Allen’s Bills average more points per drive but less EPA per drive.
Jackson is 6-3 when the Ravens’ combined EPA on defense/special teams was -7.0 or worse. Allen is 3-2 in those games. Burrow lags at 1-6, including 1-3 in games similar to the ones Jackson played in.
Why Barkley should be considered
Anyone arguing for a running back to win MVP risks getting laughed out of Math Club.
The statistical value associated with Barkley’s 2,005-yard rushing season (13 touchdowns, 5.8 yards per carry) doesn’t compare to the value quarterbacks contribute mostly through passing.
Barkley’s 46.9 EPA on rushes and receptions ranks second to the Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs (54.2) among running backs this season, which isn’t very exciting.
Only eight of the 35 running backs with at least 500 yards on the ground this season have produced positive EPA on even half of their rushes. Barkley is at 49 percent, meaning most of his runs actually cost the team value.
But there’s a case to be made that Barkley saved the Philadelphia Eagles this season by driving a philosophical shift that would not have occurred without him.
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For decades, the organization has embraced analytics, which have affirmed that passing is the key to winning. Philly has hired only offensive-minded coaches over the past 25 years: Andy Reid, Chip Kelly, Doug Pederson and now Nick Sirianni. Most of them were oriented toward the pass.
From 2000 through last season, the Eagles ranked No. 1 on the Cook Index, which measures how frequently teams pass in generally neutral situations: early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before score differential and time remaining exert more influence on play calling. They were eighth on the Cook Index last season — naturally inclined to pass first.
Philly has a highly paid quarterback in Jalen Hurts and two highly paid elite receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The offensive coordinator the Eagles hired before this season, Kellen Moore, was known primarily as a pass-oriented play caller.
But this team, with this dual-threat quarterback and this offensive line, appears much better when it runs the ball enough to reduce exposure to the dropback passing game. Did it take signing a running back of Barkley’s pedigree, ability and earning power for the Eagles to lean into the identity Hurts and the offense needed to embrace to be their best selves? An MVP case for Barkley could make that point.
The Eagles rank 25th on the Cook Index this season. Hurts is attempting about seven fewer passes per game. There’s a calm and consistency to the team’s offensive operation. Barkley appears to be the leading reason for that. He is also the ninth player to surpass 2,000 yards rushing, and he didn’t need a 17th game to get there (O.J. Simpson was the only runner to do it in a 14-game season).
The odds are against Barkley winning the award. Jackson, Allen and Burrow have provided more verifiable value to their teams. But it’s plausible to say Barkley’s contributions go beyond the impressive numbers.
Voters have no shortage of viable candidates this season.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson, right, and Josh Allen: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)
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Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa open to fresh start elsewhere after disappointing season: ‘That would be dope’
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Tua Tagovailoa appears to be ready to move on from the Miami Dolphins – a feeling that seems mutual between the two sides.
Tagovailoa was benched for the final three games of the season due to poor performance. A day after the Dolphins’ season ended with a 38-10 loss to division rival New England, the sixth-year signal-caller appeared open to the idea of a “fresh start.”
Mike McDaniel speaks with Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) in the fourth quarter of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium on Sept. 25, 2022, in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
“That would be dope. I would be good with it,” Tagovailoa said Monday, according to The Palm Beach Post, when asked specifically if he was “hoping for a fresh start.”
When asked by another reporter if he understood “fresh start” as playing “elsewhere,” Tagovailoa reportedly confirmed it.
The remarks came the same day that head coach Mike McDaniel confirmed that the team would be approaching the 2025-2026 season with a competitive mindset for the position.
“In 2026, I think there will be competition for our starting quarterback. What that is and how that looks, there’s a lot that remains to be seen. It’s the most important position on the football field, and you have to make sure you do everything possible to get the best person out there on the field.”
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa runs off the field during the first half of an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in Foxborough, Massachusetts, on Jan. 4, 2026. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)
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“Who that is – whether they’re in-house or somewhere else, that’s something that we’ll be extremely diligent on,” he continued. “But I know there will be competition for those reins. That much I do know.”
Tagovailoa threw for 2,660 yards with 20 touchdowns this season, but he struggled with accuracy and mobility, throwing a career-high of 15 interceptions. His poor performance comes just one season after signing a four-year, $212.4 million contract extension in July 2024.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa speaks during a press conference after an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025, in Miami Gardens, Florida. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)
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The Dolphins face a serious decision regarding Tagovailoa, as releasing him next year would result in a $99 million dead cap charge. If the move is designated as a post-June 1 release, those charges would be split over two years, with $67.4 million allocated to the 2026 cap and $31.8 million in 2027.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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In a warm-up for his role in the upcoming Winter Olympics, Snoop Dogg was given a microphone during the second half of the NBA game between the Golden State Warriors and the Clippers on Monday night at the Intuit Dome.
Can’t wait for those Olympics! Snoop hilariously sizzled when Warriors coach Steve Kerr stormed the court in the fourth quarter of the Clippers’ 103-102 victory.
“The Arizona Wildcat done came out of him. Look at him!” Snoop said, alluding to Kerr’s college team. “Aw, Rawwwr, rawwwr, rawwwr!”
Kerr was hit with two technical fouls in less than a minute. He nearly got one with 8:44 to play when Warriors guard Stephen Curry made a shot that appeared to be a continuation after a foul, but the officials nullified the basket.
Less than a minute later, Kerr found a new level of vehemence after the Clippers’ John Collins wasn’t called for goaltending on a shot by Gary Payton II. The four-time NBA championship coach flew into a rage, aggressively gesturing at officials and screaming.
Kerr picked up the two technicals — his first in nearly four seasons — and was held back by Payton and assistant coaches before exiting to the locker room.
Snoop Dogg, who had joined regular Peacock/NBC announcers Reggie Miller and Terry Gannon for the second half, rose to the occasion, his commentary keeping pace with Kerr’s antics.
“Oh, Steve gonna get thrown out! Get him out of there. Get him out of there! Back him up!” Snoop barked.
All Miller and Gannon could do was laugh as Snoop continued, referencing the location of the Intuit Dome and Kerr’s Southern California ties: “Steve back in Inglewood right now. Inglewooood!!! Get him, Steve! You in Inglewood, Steve!”
Snoop will join NBC Olympics host Mike Tirico in Italy in February, riffing on stories that unfold at the Winter Games the way he did at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics. The NBA game was an indication he’ll again be up to the task.
“We are excited to have Snoop bring his unique energy and passion to our NBA coverage,” NBC Sports executive producer Sam Flood said in a statement. “It will be a once in a lifetime opportunity to watch Snoop, Reggie and Terry talk hoops with a side order of fun.”
Snoop said in the release that his debut as an NBA game broadcaster “is a dream come true for me. I can’t wait to bring a fresh vibe to the analysis.”
For the record, official Brian Forte acknowledged after the game that goaltending should have been called against Collins. Curry told reporters that he appreciated his coach’s passion.
“Two crazy calls in a row that you feel like can dictate the momentum of the game, it doesn’t mean a win or a loss, it just dictates the momentum,” Curry said. “I love that fired up Steve, for sure. Somebody had to do it.”
Visiting Los Angeles has been emotional for Kerr since the Pacific Palisades wildfire a year ago destroyed his childhood home, which his family bought in 1969. His mother, 90-year-old Ann Kerr, still lived in the house, located near Rivas Canyon, and was evacuated safely.
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Russell Wilson not thinking about retirement, plans to play in 2026: ‘I know what I’m capable of’
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Russell Wilson went from starting quarterback of the New York Giants to third string just a few weeks into the 2025 season, leaving many to question if the 10-time Pro Bowler decides to play next season.
Wilson, 37, doesn’t sound like he’s mulling over his decision. He wants to play in 2026.
“I’m not blinking,” Wilson said, per SNY. “I know [what] I’m capable of. I think I showed that in Dallas, and I want to be able to do that again, you know, and just be ready to rock and roll, and be as healthy as possible and be ready to play ball.”
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New York Giants’ Russell Wilson attempts to escape a sack by Dallas Cowboys defensive end James Houston (53) in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025, in Arlington, Texas. (Julio Cortez/AP Photo)
Wilson signed a one-year, veteran minimum deal with the Giants this past offseason worth $10.5 million, which had tons of incentives if he were to play the entire season.
That same offseason, the Giants traded back into the first round to select Jaxson Dart out of Ole Miss, and he proved during training camp to have NFL-ready chops under center.
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Still, then-head coach Brian Daboll was steadfast in his decision to start Wilson despite Dart’s success. But, after just three games, where the Giants went 0-3, a change was made.
Daboll went with Dart in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Chargers at home, and the rookie defeated Justin Herbert and company to not only get his first career win, but cement himself as the team’s starter moving forward.
Even then, Wilson remained positive, saying in interviews after practice that he understands the direction of the team and wanted to help Dart develop and grow in his new role.
New York Giants’ Russell Wilson, left, and Jaxson Dart, right, talk on the bench in the first half of an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025, in Arlington, Texas. (Julio Cortez/AP Photo)
In his three starts for the Giants, Wilson threw for 831 yards with three touchdowns to three interceptions, though all of those touchdowns came in a Week 2 overtime heartbreaker for New York. Over half of Wilson’s passing yards also came in that game, throwing for 450 in the 40-37 loss.
Wilson also said that he tore his hamstring during that game against the Cowboys.
“I played that game, you know, I tore my hamstring on Friday in practice – the last play of practice. And I had a Grade 2 (tear). I couldn’t tell anybody. I had to go and play on it just because I knew the circumstance, I had to play on it, no matter what,” Wilson explained.
“I actually ended up going to the Dallas Mavericks’ facility, training. And you know, just kept it quiet, just trying to get treatment on it and just knowing that I probably couldn’t run from the goal line to the 10-yard line if I wanted to, but I feel like… I got to play this game.”
New York Giants quarterback Russell Wilson (3) scans the field at the line against the New York Jets during the first half at MetLife Stadium. (Rich Barnes/Imagn Images)
It will be interesting to see if Wilson will land anywhere, and better yet, if a team is willing to try him out as a starter again.
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