Sports
NBA Pre-Postseason Player Tiers 1 and 2: Wembanyama quickly rising; Giannis, Jokić steady at top
Yesterday, I largely focused on setting the table for the updated NBA Pre-Postseason Players Tiers before revealing Tier 3 (players between the 24th and 42nd spot) and Tier 4 (Nos. 43-80).
Today, I’m going to get a little more into some of the more interesting and/or challenging placements, as well as note a few overall trends.
For starters, a consistent bit of feedback — and one I’ve gotten from multiple sources since the release of Tiers 3 and 4 — is the always difficult evaluation of which player is more valuable between an elite role player and a good-but-not-great primary or secondary creator. A senior analytics staffer within the league went so far as to argue they would prefer essentially the entirety of Tier 4A, largely made up of elite role players or connectors, over Tier 3B, which is made up of borderline All-Star primaries.
I don’t think there is a reliable way to solve this debate and on some level, deciding between, say, Mikal Bridges on one hand and Jaylen Brown on the other is more a function of the rest of the respective rosters than the individual players. In that particular comparison, I think it’s entirely possible, if not likely, that both the Celtics and Nets would be better if the two were exchanged!
NBA Player Tiers: ’20 | ’21 | ’22 | ‘23: T5| T4| T3 | T2 | T1 | ’24: T3&4
In some ways, this is really an extension of the long-simmering question of how to rate the sub-elite, yet still very good, level of on-ball players. At least to my way of thinking, there is nothing more valuable in the league than elite shot creation and nothing more overrated than mediocre shot creation, but finding the importance and desirability of players in between is just hard.
It’s also, in some form, the reason to do this exercise in the first place, as identifying that there is a fairly wide gap between Brown and Jayson Tatum and that the difference between Luka Dončić and Donovan Mitchell is substantial is a vital part of roster evaluation. Avoiding the cheapening of the term “franchise player,” in other words.
Another set of teammates who illustrate this dichotomy is Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. I didn’t think Banchero was an especially worthy All-Star this year. Through games of April 10, there are only eight players who have scored at least 100 fewer points than they would have a similar number of scoring attempts at league average efficiency according to Basketball Reference, with Banchero being seventh on that list. However, on some level, this is a result of Orlando’s lack of other creators. On my Simple Shot Quality model, his 50.2 percent expected eFG% is 24th lowest among the 162 players with at least 500 tracked shots attempted this season.
But to swing back around, the players with the 21st, 22nd and 23rd hardest shot diets are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards and Tatum, all of whom have significantly outperformed their shot expectancies by 209 (SGA, third of 162), 73 (Edwards, 45th) and 151 (Tatum, 13th) points scored, while Banchero has shot essentially at the level of his shot quality (-3 points, 124th of 162). Should he get credit for helping keep Orlando’s offense afloat at all by at least being able to soak up possessions? How would he perform with more creative guard play around him? I’m not entirely sure, which is why Banchero is a hard player to rate.
Meanwhile, Wagner does not have the same self-creation ability as Banchero, but he is superior in most other areas — more efficient scoring, better and more versatile defense, off ball play — in a way which would make him a very plug-and-play addition to any team that already had their primary creative roles filled.
Moving on, there are a few notable players who might have been much higher had I done a tiers update around midseason. Tyrese Haliburton is one. He’s been great this year, a worthy All-Star and the driving force behind Indiana’s powerful offense. But the second half of the year hasn’t measured up to the first, whether as result of nagging injuries slowing him down or defenses starting to figure him out or most likely a combination of both. This, combined with my uncertainty over how well his style translates to the playoffs has him down in Tier 3 when for much of the season I had him penciled into the bottom end of Tier 2.
Damian Lillard is another player who has dropped down a tier over the course of the season. Early in the year, it was easy to give somewhat of a pass based on both the adjustment to a new team and role as well as the coaching turmoil which beset the Bucks for the first stage of the season. But even though he has shown some of the old dominance in fits and starts, such as the 29 points (on 19 shot attempts) and nine assists he tallied on Wednesday to drive the Bucks past the Magic despite Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absence, those performances have been the exception rather than the rule. Over his final four seasons in Portland, Lillard combined for 62.1 True Shooting on 31.4 Usage. In Milwaukee, his efficiency has dipped to 59.3 TS on 28.4 Usage, his least efficient full season relative to league average since his rookie year. For a player who has always been a huge question mark defensively, it’s a worrisome decline at age 33.
Of course, he could shoot the hell out of the ball in the playoffs and help drag the Bucks to the Eastern Conference finals or even NBA Finals and prove he still belongs in the Top 20 discussion.
Speaking of playoffs, I mentioned yesterday that there were a few players who couldn’t readily improve their tiering until the playoffs, with Tatum, Dončić and Joel Embiid as the prime examples. All three have great opportunities entering the postseason this year, with Dončić in particular seeming well-poised to go on a run; the midseason addition of Daniel Gafford and the Mavericks’ new ability to always be able to match Dončić’s creative mastery with a strong dive-and-dunk pick-and-roll partner surrounded with shooting appears to have unlocked something special.
Meanwhile, there are a few players for whom I have already more or less assumed playoff greatness based on past experience. Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray haven’t exactly had banner regular seasons, but both have track records of playoff dominance.
Bouncing around a little bit, I’m not sure what to do with Ja Morant and so I am essentially treating this as a gap year while acknowledging he has secured himself extra scrutiny next year.
Finally, let’s talk about the large Frenchman in the room. Victor Wembanyama in Tier 2B, among the Top 14 players in the league. I don’t think he has been All-NBA-level over the entire season, but he has been plenty good as a rookie and has shown development over the course of the year to suggest to me that he will start next season with a strong chance at all-league honors.
This growth is especially evident if you compare before and after either his move to starting at center instead of power forward in early December or the insertion of Tre Jones as a starter in early January to pair Wembanyama with a competent point guard.
On the former, he has been a top-five rim protector in the league since then, with a profile similar to that of Brook Lopez over that period. Meanwhile, prior to Jones joining the starters, Wembanyama only managed 53.3 True Shooting Percentage (on 29.9 usage), but since, that mark has jumped to 58.5 TS% on 33.7 Usage while he has raised his assist rate by nearly 50 percent. And all this with his 3-point shooting still very much a work in progress.
Of course, the numbers don’t even tell close to the full Wemby story as demonstrated by the near nightly parade of “Wait, he did what?!” highlights. While he won’t get a chance to prove himself in this year’s playoffs, it seems almost inevitable that, if he can avoid injury, he’ll be knocking on the door of Tier 1 soon as he has delivered on everything he was hyped to be, and more.
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Michael Gonzales, Garrett Ellwood, Adam Pantozzi / NBAE via Getty)
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The highly anticipated 30th WNBA season tipped off Friday with three games, including the expansion Toronto Tempo’s first-ever contest.
The action continued Saturday with a full slate, including Caitlin Clark’s return after an injury-riddled sophomore season.
Clark and the Indiana Fever hosted the Dallas Wings on Saturday afternoon in a matchup featuring the four most recent No. 1 overall picks. The Wings outlasted the Fever 107-104, but the game was defined by Azzi Fudd’s — the most recent top pick — underwhelming debut.
Dallas Wings guards Azzi Fudd and Paige Bueckers react during the first half of the Fever’s season opener at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on May 9, 2026. (Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Fudd played 18 minutes off the bench, scoring three points — the lowest ever by a No. 1 overall pick in a WNBA debut.
Wings coach Jose Fernandez addressed Fudd’s performance after the game, encouraging the rookie to, “Keep doing what she’s doing, it’s her first year in the league. We got five really talented backcourt players.”
EX-WNBA STAR CRITICAL OF SKY ROOKIE HAILEY VAN LITH, BELIEVES POPULARITY PLAYED ROLE IN DRAFT SELECTION
In addition to Fudd, Dallas’ backcourt features last year’s top draft pick Paige Bueckers, last season’s No. 12 overall pick Aziaha James, four-time All-Star Arike Ogunbowale and starting guard Odyssey Sims.
Until Saturday, Kelsey Plum held the record for the lowest-scoring debut by a No. 1 pick. Selected first overall by the then-San Antonio Stars in 2017, she scored just four points in her debut. The Stars relocated to Las Vegas in 2018 and was subsequently rebranded as the Aces.
Dallas Wings guard Azzi Fudd warms up before the game against the Indiana Fever at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana, on May 9, 2026. (Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Despite the slow start to her first season in the league, Plum ended the year with All-Rookie team honors. In the years since, she’s been named to four All-Star teams and won two championships with the Aces.
The Wings’ decision to take Fudd with the No. 1 overall pick drew controversy, raising questions about whether Bueckers’ personal relationship with her influenced the selection. Late last month, Bueckers said last month it did not.
Azzi Fudd poses with WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert after being selected first overall by the Dallas Wings during the 2026 WNBA Draft at The Shed in New York City on April 13, 2026. (Angelina Katsanis/Getty Images)
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“Azzi Fudd was the No. 1 draft pick because she earned it, and it had nothing to do with me and everything to do with who she is as a human being, who she is as a basketball player,” Bueckers said, according to ESPN.
Neither Bueckers nor Fudd has publicly updated their relationship status since the April draft.
“Quite frankly, I believe me and Azzi’s personal relationship is nobody’s business but our own,” Bueckers also said in April. “And what we choose to share is completely up to us.”
Next up, the Wings play their home opener on Tuesday when they host the Atlanta Dream.
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The Lakers are one playoff defeat from their season being over and from the conversation turning to LeBron James’ future.
They are in a hole no team has climbed out of in the history of the NBA, the Lakers’ 131-108 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 putting L.A. down 3-0 in the best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal series.
James and his teammates gave a gallant effort Saturday night at Crypto.com Arena, but the defending champion proved to be more than the Lakers could handle.
James finished his night with 19 points on seven-for-19 shooting, eight assists and six rebounds. Rui Hachimura had 21 points and Austin Reaves finished with 17 points and nine assists.
Even so, the Lakers have now lost all three games by double digits.
And the Lakers are fully aware that no NBA team has successfully come back from a 3-0 deficit in the playoffs, with those teams holding a 161-0 record. Only four teams have forced a Game 7 after trailing 3-0, all of which ultimately lost the series, including the Boston Celtics in 2023.
Lakers forward LeBron James shows frustration as Thunder center Chet Holmgren slam dunks during Game 3 on Saturday night.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
Game 4 is Monday night, when the Lakers will try to stave off elimination and a night that will determine how the conversations go with James if they lose.
James has been frequently asked this season about retirement, but he has not given any indication of what the future holds for him.
He’s 41 years old and playing in an NBA-record 23rd season.
James is in the final year of his contract that pays him $52 million, making him a free agent this offseason. He can retire, join another team or perhaps return to the Lakers next season.
That will be the conversation if the Lakers can’t win Game 4.
They will see the same Thunder team that had seven players score in double figures, led by Ajay Mitchell’s 24 points and 10 assists and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 23 points and nine assists.
The Lakers went down 13 in the third quarter and had to play catchup the rest of the way. They never did, going down by 112-94 with 6 minutes and 12 seconds left, forcing Lakers coach JJ Redick to call a timeout.
The deficit just kept growing, topping out at 27 points in the fourth.
They were outscored 33-20 in the third quarter. The Lakers didn’t take care of the basketball in the third, turning it over six times, and they didn’t play good defense, allowing the Thunder to shoot 59.1% from the field and 55.6 percent from three-point range,
The Lakers did not give an inch to the Thunder in the first half, even when they fell behind by 10 points.
They just kept grinding until they led 59-57 at halftime.
Hachimura had 16 points in the first half, continuing his hot three-point shooting by making all four of his threes. Luke Kennard came off the bench to give the Lakers 13 points, shooting five for six from the field and three for four from three-point range.
The Lakers kept the pressure defense on Gilgeous-Alexander. Though he had 14 points in the first half, he shot only four for 14 from the field and one for five from three-point range.
The Lakers shot 55% from three-point range in the first half, which went a long way in helping them.
The Lakers lost the first two games by identical margins of 18 points and each loss was magnified because Gilgeous-Alexander was kept under wraps for the most part by L.A.’s defense.
When Gilgeous-Alexander picked up his fourth foul with 10:34 left in the third quarter of Game 2 and went to the bench, the Thunder turned a five-point lead into a 13-point advantage at the end of the quarter.
So, when he wasn’t on the court, the Lakers failed to take advantage.
“Well, you know, again, I’ll repeat what I said after the game: we’ve got to be better in the non-Shai minutes,” Lakers coach JJ Redick said.
Role players like Mitchell and Jared McCain hurt the Lakers in the second game. Chet Holmgren also was hard to deal with.
“Mitchell and McCain have hurt us in those non-Shai minutes, and then Chet [Holmgren] has hurt us the whole game,” Redick said. “I think you’ve got to be willing to live with something. Shai playing one-on-one, thus far in the series, we haven’t been willing to live with, so you’re going to be in rotation. That can lead to smalls on bigs at the hole, and the offensive rebounding from Chet has really hurt us.”
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In 2025, Alex Palou kicked off the Month of May with a Sonsio Grand Prix win at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.
Based on the odds, it’s likely that Palou will find himself in Winner’s Circle again this Saturday when INDYCAR goes back to IMS on May 9 (4:30 p.m. ET, FOX).
Considering Palou has already captured the checkered flag three times this season, are there any other drivers whose odds are worth a wager?
Here are the latest lines at DraftKings Sportsbook as of May 9.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
Sonsio Grand Prix 2026
Àlex Palou: 5/18 (bet $10 to win $12.78 total)
Kyle Kirkwood: 5/1 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Pato O’Ward: 12/1 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
David Malukas: 14/1 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Josef Newgarden: 16/1 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Scott McLaughlin: 20/1 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Christian Lundgaard: 30/1 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Scott Dixon: 40/1 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Will Power: 60/1 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Felix Rosenqvist: 80/1 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Alexander Rossi: 100/1 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Marcus Ericsson: 100/1 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Marcus Armstrong: 100/1 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Christian Rasmussen: 150/1 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)
Graham Rahal: 150/1 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)
Louis Foster: 300/1 (bet $10 to win $3,010 total)
Dennis Hauger: 500/1 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)
Romain Grosjean: 500/1 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)
Santino Ferrucci: 500/1 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)
Rinus Veekay: 500/1 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)
Kyffin Simpson: 500/1 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)
Caio Collet: 1000/1 (bet $10 to win $10,010 total)
Sting Ray Robb: 1000/1 (bet $10 to win $10,010 total)
Nolan Siegel: 1000/1 (bet $10 to win $10,010 total)
Mick Schumacher: 1000/1 (bet $10 to win $10,010 total)
Here’s what to know about the oddsboard:
Heavy Favorite: It doesn’t look like Alex Palou’s dominance will be slowing down anytime soon. As noted above, he’s already won three of the five races since the INDYCAR season started in March. With 186 laps led, Palou sits first in the standings and has the shortest odds to win the title again. Last season, he started from the pole and led 29 laps before winning the race.
Long Shot to Watch: While his odds of 150/1 to win at IMS are much longer than Palou’s, Graham Rahal is one to watch. At this race in 2025, he started second and led 49 laps before finishing sixth. He finished second at this course in 2015, 2020 and 2023. He’s currently 10th in the INDYCAR standings, with one top five and three top 10s.
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