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How a Hurricanes comeback can reverse a decade-long trend

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How a Hurricanes comeback can reverse a decade-long trend

After starting the second round with three straight losses, the Carolina Hurricanes have officially made it a series with thrilling back-to-back wins in Games 4 and 5. 

That’s more akin to what many expected from this series before it started — a close, hard-fought battle between the two titans of the Metropolitan Division. While it certainly played out that way on the ice with three one-goal games to start, the series score obviously told a different story.

On Thursday night in Game 6, the Hurricanes have a very real chance to flip that script, as they’ll be relatively heavy favorites at home to push the series to a Game 7 with a third straight win of their own.

That may be a nauseating thought for Rangers fans, but it’s a rare treat for hockey fans at large. It would be the first time since 2014 that a team forced a Game 7 after starting a series down 3-0, when the Los Angeles Kings rallied in the first round to eliminate the San Jose Sharks.

That it’s been an entire decade since the last such instance is wilder than it seems at first blush. 

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There may not be anything more exciting in sport than a comeback, a down-and-out team returning from the dead against all odds. On a game-by-game basis, hockey fans have been blessed in that department over the last few seasons. The “most dangerous lead in hockey” remains, but that’s also extended to three-goal and four-goal cushions, which have evaporated at a much higher rate in recent years. In this sport, truly no lead is safe.

And yet that rising comeback mentality hasn’t extended to playoff series. Over the last decade, a 3-0 series lead might as well be a done deal. It’s a guarantee with zero hope for the downtrodden. 

It’s not even that there haven’t been any comebacks; it’s that there hasn’t even been a team that was close, with zero Game 7s to speak of in those situations.

To some, that may seem like a non-story, given the rarity throughout hockey history. A 3-0 series lead is a vice-grip that should be impossible to let go of, a feat reserved for only the biggest of choke artists.

Still with the increase in parity in the salary-cap era, we should’ve seen a few more over the last decade just by pure chance. There’s always a chance of even the most unexpected thing happening and the fact those chances haven’t come to fruition is fascinating.

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Since 2015, there have been 30 instances of a team being down 3-0, and 60 percent of those ended unceremoniously in a sweep. Only four (13 percent) even made it to Game 6, where the Hurricanes are now — with last year’s Dallas Stars being the first to even manage that in eight(!) seasons.

While the odds are never in the favor of a team down 3-0, they aren’t zero, either. At least they shouldn’t be. There’s a myth that a 3-0 deficit only happens to the worst teams, those that would be extremely unlikely to crawl out of such a hole to begin with, but it can happen to even the best of teams.

Before the series began, the 30 teams ranged from 17 percent underdogs to 77 percent favorites (hello 2019 Tampa Bay Lightning) based on series prices from Sports Odds History. Of the 30, 13 teams were expected to win from the onset. Based on that — and accounting for a lesser opinion of the team after losing three straight — the odds of at least forcing Game 7 ranged from four percent to 20 percent. The odds of coming back ranged from one percent to 13 percent.

On average, we’re talking a one-in-10 shot at forcing Game 7 and a one-in-five shot at winning the series after going down 3-0. Those are clearly minuscule odds, but over 30 series, those tiny odds add up. 

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Based on each team’s odds after being down 3-0, we should’ve seen three Game 7s with one or two full-blown comebacks. We’ve got zero instead. In short — we’ve been robbed.

Some will be quick to point out the human element of it all, and it’s a very fair point. Up 3-0, a lot of teams have shown the necessary killer instinct to close the series. Down 3-0, a lot of teams have folded at the prospect of the mountain ahead. Sometimes, the teams down 3-0 are simply not as good as they were expected to be from the jump. Or the team up 3-0 is a lot better.

As valid as those points may seem, the odds of not seeing a Game 7 for a team down 3-0 let alone a comeback is still very low — low enough that even real qualitative counters can’t explain it away. Given 30 instances with an average of a 10.6 percent chance of seeing a Game 7, there’s a 97 percent chance we should’ve seen at least one. A 5.2 percent chance of seeing a comeback over 30 instances gives us an 80 percent chance of seeing at least one on that front.

The odds of chaos have been high enough over the last decade; they just haven’t manifested. That can happen over small samples; 30 series definitely qualifies for that.

Over a larger sample, the odds do tend to even out, though, and that’s best exhibited from looking at the start of the salary cap era. There, the odds perfectly reflect reality.

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From 2006 to 2014, there were 38 series in which a team went down 3-0 — but those teams clearly had a bit more fight in them. A higher percentage won at least one game (57 percent), two forced a Game 7 and lost (Detroit and Chicago in 2011), and two of those teams won (Los Angeles in 2014 and Philadelphia in 2010).

Their average odds? The same as the last decade: 11 percent to force Game 7 and five percent to complete the comeback.

Add up all the odds, and that nine-year period got the exact amount of dramatic chaos as expected: 4.1 Game 7s and 2.1 comebacks. It’s a stark contrast from what we’ve received over the last decade. Hockey fans are long overdue.

Overdue doesn’t mean it’s due to happen. It’s a fallacy to suggest there will be more Game 7s and comebacks after a team goes down 3-0 simply because it hasn’t happened in a while. That doesn’t make it more likely to happen in the near future. The odds, on average, are still about one-in-10 for a Game 7 and one-in-five for a comeback.

But we’re as close as we can get here with the Hurricanes.

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For Carolina, specifically, the odds have changed after winning Games 4 and 5. Now it’s an over 60 percent chance of forcing Game 7 and an over 30 percent chance of completing the comeback. For the first time in a decade, we have a serious chance of witnessing history. 

The odds are still heavily in the Rangers’ favor here up 3-2 and no one is counting out the Presidents’ Trophy champions from grabbing that necessary fourth win. But the Hurricanes have a great team too, one with a real chance of living up to their slogan: “cause chaos.”

(Photo: Joshua Sarner / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Lindsey Vonn qualifies for fifth Winter Olympics

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Lindsey Vonn qualifies for fifth Winter Olympics

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As Philip Rivers has shown he could still tear up the NFL at age 44, American Olympic legend Lindsey Vonn has also proven that age is just a number.

Vonn, 41, qualified for the 2026 Milan Cortina Games, Team USA announced on Tuesday. It will be the fifth Winter Olympics that she competes in.

United States’ Lindsey Vonn reacts at the finish area of an alpine ski, women’s World Cup downhill, in Val D’Isere, France, Saturday, Dec. 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Pier Marco Tacca)

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Vonn had an impressive run at the World Cup in France over the weekend. She was third in super-G, hitting a high speed of 71 mph. It was her second consecutive podium finish after she was third in downhill. It was the 142nd podium finish in her World Cup career.

“I am honored to be able to represent my country one more time, in my 5th and final Olympics!” she wrote in a post on Instagram. “When I made the decision to return to ski racing, I always had one eye on Cortina because it’s a place that is very, very special to me. Although I can’t guarantee any outcomes, I can guarantee that I will give my absolute best every time l kick out of the starting gate. No matter how these games end up, I feel like I’ve already won.

US OLYMPIANS MADISON CHOCK, EVAN BATES SEND MESSAGE TO OPPONENT WHO TOOK THEIR GOLD BEFORE DISQUALIFICATION

United States’ Lindsey Vonn celebrates on the podium after taking third place in an alpine ski, women’s World Cup downhill, in Val D’Isere, France, Saturday, Dec. 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Pier Marco Tacca)

“I am grateful for how the season has gone so far, but I am just getting started. See you in Cortina!”

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Vonn has already put together an enviable career in skiing.

She won a gold medal in the 2010 Vancouver Games and two bronze medals in Pyeongchang in 2018. She’s also taken home two gold, three silver and two bronze medals in the World Championships.

The Minnesota native also has 83 World Cup wins and several International Ski and Snowboard Federation (FIS) Crystal Globes.

Notably, she’s back competing for gold after being away from the sport for five years.

Austria’s Cornelia Huetter, left, winner of an alpine ski, women’s World Cup downhill, celebrates on the podium with second-placed Germany’s Kira Weidle Winkelmann, left, and third-placed United States’ Lindsey Vonn, in Val D’Isere, France, Saturday, Dec. 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Pier Marco Tacca)

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The Winter Olympics will begin on Feb. 6 and run through Feb. 22.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Nearly a century ago, the first World Cup went off with many hitches

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Nearly a century ago, the first World Cup went off with many hitches

Next summer’s World Cup will be the largest, most complex and most lucrative sporting event in history, with 48 teams playing 104 games in three countries. The tournament is expected to draw a global TV audience of nearly 5 billion and FIFA, the event’s organizer, is hoping for revenues of between $10 billion-$14 billion — which is why lower-bowl tickets for Iran-New Zealand at SoFi Stadium cost nearly $700.

All that seemed unlikely after the first tournament in 1930, when the idea of a soccer World Cup was nearly killed in the cradle, the victim from lack of planning, lack of money and lack of interest. That the competition survived, much less thrived, is nothing short of a miracle, says English writer and podcaster Jonathan Wilson, author of the deeply researched “The Power and Glory: The History of the World Cup.”

“1930, it’s incredibly amateurish in many ways,” Wilson said. “It’s got that sort of almost like a school sports day feel to it.”

Only 13 countries took part in the first tournament; it was supposed to be 16 but the Egyptian team missed its boat to Uruguay while Japan and Siam (now Thailand) couldn’t afford the travel costs and pulled out. England, meanwhile, not only refused to play, but the British press ignored the event, as did much of Europe.

That seemed like a wise decision at the time since the first two matches of the inaugural tournament were affected by snow, with one of the opening games drawing just 4,444 fans. The smallest crowd in World Cup history, estimated at about 300, showed up for another first-round game between Romania and Peru and the TV audience … well, there was none since TV had yet to be invented.

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The officiating was beyond suspect — Romania’s manager, Constantin Radulescu, also worked two games as a linesman — and the U.S. trainer, Jack Coll, had to be stretchered off the field during his team’s semifinal — yes, the U.S. made the semifinals! — with Argentina when he lost consciousness after inhaling the fumes from a bottle of chloroform that shattered in his pocket.

In another game, the penalty spots were mistakenly marked 16 yards from goal instead of the regulation 12 — and nobody noticed.

“Some of the details don’t make sense,” Wilson said. “The whole thing is so sort of low grade compared to today.”

When Argentine captain Nolo Ferreira left the tournament and returned home to take his law exams his replacement, Guillermo Stábile, scored a tournament-high eight goals in four games — then never played for the national team again (although he did coach it, leading the La Albiceleste to six South American titles and the 1958 World Cup).

Given the farcical nature of the 1930 World Cup, the tournament probably should have ended right there. Instead, 1930 has become the foundation on which next year’s competition was built.

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The origins of the tournament, however, actually make sense. Before 1930, FIFA recognized the winner of the Olympic competition as the world champion. But that event was for amateurs, a point on which the International Olympic Committee would not budge.

With professional soccer growing in popularity, FIFA decided to stage its own breakaway event and play it in Uruguay, the country that had won the last two Olympic titles.

Argentina’s goalkeeper can’t stop a shot by Uruguay during the 1930 World Cup final against Argentina in Montevideo, Uruguay.

(Associated Press)

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That quickly proved to be a big mistake. The growing effects of the Great Depression left many countries unable to afford the long, slow steamship trip to South America. The first tournament was open to any country that wanted to play, yet two months before the first game no European teams had agreed to come.

“It was taken very seriously by Uruguay and Argentina,” Wilson said, but not by many others.

That changed shortly after Romania’s King Carol II, who ascended to the throne in a coup that deposed his son, personally selected his country’s World Cup roster and sent it on its way. France quickly agreed to go too, entering a makeshift team under pressure from FIFA president Jules Rimet, a Frenchman. Belgium also buckled under FIFA pressure and all three teams boarded the same ship for the trip to Uruguay, working out together on the 15-day voyage aboard the SS Conte Verde, an Italian ocean liner.

“Even the four European nations who go it’s not entirely clear how seriously they took it,” Wilson said. “The French and Romanians, they kept diaries. They seem to have regarded this as a laugh. We’ll try to win but it doesn’t really matter.”

Things didn’t really get loony until the tournament began. The Bolivian team, for example, played in berets, as did an Argentine midfielder, while the 15 referees who worked the games, some of whom had traveled and socialized with the players on the long boat ride from Europe, dressed formally in knickers, long-sleeve shirts, blazers and ties.

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The well-dressed officials spent much of the tournament working with police to break up fights; play was so violent at least two players sustained broken legs and the U.S.-Argentina semifinal descended into a full-out brawl, with one American having four teeth knocked out and another hospitalized with injuries to his stomach.

The tournament finally finished with the hosts beating Argentina 4-2, after which the Argentines broke off diplomatic relations with their neighbor and an angry mob in Buenos Aires stoned the Uruguayan embassy.

Uraguay's team before the 1930 World Cup final against Argentina.

Uraguay’s team before the 1930 World Cup final against Argentina.

(Keystone / Getty Images)

Argentina's soccer team before preparing for the 1930 World Cup final.

Argentina’s soccer team before preparing for the 1930 World Cup final.

(Associated Press)

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“It ended,” Wilson said of the tournament, “with everybody sort of fighting each other.”

Few disagreed with the Argentine magazine El Gráfico, which seemed to predict there was little future for the fledgling event. “The World Cup is over,” it wrote. “The development of this competition brought not only an unpleasant atmosphere, but also an ungrateful one.”

Yet nearly a century later, the World Cup is still here. And that, too, was foretold in 1930 in the story of Romanian midfielder Alfred Eisenbeisser (who was also known as Fredi Fieraru because, why not?).

On the journey home from the first World Cup, Eisenbeisser contracted pneumonia and a priest was called to administer the last rites. The ship eventually docked in Genoa and he was taken to a sanatorium while the rest of the team continued on to Romania.

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Assuming her son had perished in Italy, Eisenbeisser’s mother arranged a wake — only to have her son stroll into the ceremony very much alive, causing the woman to faint. Eisenbeisser would play 12 more years of professional soccer and compete in figure skating in the 1936 Winter Olympics, where he finished 13th in the pairs competition.

Turns out the reports of Eisenbeisser’s demise, like those of the World Cup, were greatly exaggerated.

You have read the latest installment of On Soccer with Kevin Baxter. The weekly column takes you behind the scenes and shines a spotlight on unique stories. Listen to Baxter on this week’s episode of the “Corner of the Galaxy” podcast.

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Philip Rivers delivers vintage first half performance for Colts, delighting NFL fans

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Philip Rivers delivers vintage first half performance for Colts, delighting NFL fans

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Philip Rivers’ return to the NFL has many former quarterbacks over the age of 40 wondering if they could turn back the clock and perform at a similarly high level.

If anything, they should at least take note of what Rivers did in the first half for the Indianapolis Colts against the San Francisco 49ers.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) passes as San Francisco 49ers defensive lineman Keion White (56) applies pressure during the first half of an NFL football game, Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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The Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2026 semifinalist put on a vintage performance in the first half against the 49ers, delighting NFL fans who tuned into the game on Monday night.

He started the night coming out to cheers from Colts fans at Lucas Oil Stadium – his family also in attendance. The Colts went nine plays, 72 yards and Rivers found wide receiver Alec Pierce for a 20-yard touchdown. Indianapolis jumped out to a 7-0 lead.

NFL SUSPENDS STEELERS’ DK METCALF FOR 2 GAMES AFTER ALTERCATION WITH LIONS FAN

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) passes against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half of an NFL football game, Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, in Indianapolis.  (AP Photo/AJ Mast)

San Francisco scored on back-to-back drives thanks to Brock Purdy hooking up with Demarcus Robinson, the special teams forcing a turnover, and then Purdy throwing a touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey. When Rivers got the ball back, he drove down the field again.

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The Colts scored on a 16-yard touchdown pass from Rivers to Pierce to end a 12-play, 66-yard drive. The game was tied with a lot of time to go in the first half.

Indianapolis trailed 24-17 at the half. But the attention was on Rivers.

He was 14-of-21 with 175 passing yards and two touchdown passes. The last time he threw multiple touchdown passes in the regular season was on Dec. 20, 2020, against the Houston Texans.

Rivers came back to the Colts last week at the age of 44. He had a solid performance against the Seattle Seahawks for someone who hadn’t thrown a ball in nearly five years.

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Now, the Colts’ playoff hopes rest on his shoulders.

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