Sports
Does a rough second half matter in October? Some World Series hopefuls might want to look away
Who doesn’t love a good what-if question, so let’s ask this one:
What if this baseball season had started in the middle of July instead of the last week of March? Have you thought much about how differently we’d be viewing nearly every contender in the sport?
Of course you haven’t. But that’s what we’re here for. So take a look at the second-half records of all the teams that would make the postseason if the tournament started today, with the Braves and Mets both included since they’re tied for the final NL wild-card spot. First, let’s look at …
The Good
Padres: 30-13
Diamondbacks: 30-14
Dodgers: 28-15
Brewers: 26-17
Mets: 27-18
Astros: 25-19
Royals: 24-20
We can talk about those teams some other time. But now let’s hone in on the rest of this group. See what jumps out at you as you peruse …
The Not So Good
Twins: 22-23
Guardians: 22-23
Phillies: 22-22
Orioles: 23-22
Yankees: 22-20
Braves: 23-22
You know which two teams jumped out at me? The Phillies and Guardians. Aren’t they the ultimate reminder that a baseball season can feel as long and winding as the Appalachian Trail?
For more than three months this season, the Phillies and Guardians owned the two best records in the sport. Then baseball happened.
On July 1, they were both on 100-win paces. Now, as that standings chart illustrates so vividly, they’ve spent the past two months playing more like an 80-win team than a 100-win team. Funny how that happens. The question is, what does it mean for their win-the-World-Series aspirations?
They’re not the first teams in history to discover how long a baseball season really is. But that isn’t the story here.
The story is: A rough second half, for teams like this, often means more than you’d probably guess it means. I’ve done the math so you don’t have to.
The wild-card era is 30 seasons old now. You’d think the wild-card safety net would have given many teams the rope to slog through a .500-ish second half — or worse — and still be ready to rock in October. But if that’s what you’d think, think again. Check out what’s actually happened, just in the theoretically more forgiving wild-card era (1995-present).
Losing second-half records, still made it to the World Series
2023 Diamondbacks: 32-39
2006 Cardinals: 35-39
2006 Tigers: 36-38
Worst second-half records, won the World Series
2006 Cardinals: 35-39
1996 Yankees: 40-37
2014 Giants: 35-31
(Source: Baseball Reference / Stathead)
Adam Wainwright celebrates after the Cardinals defeated the Tigers in Game 5 to win the 2006 World Series. (David E. Klutho / Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
Yes, you read that right. In the wild-card era, only one team has survived a losing record after the All-Star break and still won the World Series. …
And only three teams have played .500 or worse and even lived to play in a World Series — where two of them (the 2006 Cardinals and Tigers) actually matched up with each other. …
But even if we raise the bar slightly, every World Series winner in these last three decades has been at least five games over .500 in the second half — except for the three teams above.
So what does that tell us about baseball? Let’s ask the manager of the club that had the worst second half of any of the teams on those lists — Torey Lovullo of the 2023 Diamondbacks.
“It’s an emotional roller coaster,” Lovullo told me and Doug Glanville on the latest episode of The Windup’s Starkville podcast. “This game is crazy. And it will wear you down.”
So how does any team spin through that roller coaster and survive with enough equilibrium to hit the reset button in October?
“We talk about consistency,” Lovullo said. “We just want to have guys that understand where they’re at and not get too high or not get too low. But eventually, we’re going to find our way. It’s the madness of a baseball season, and it does happen. And if you let it spiral, it will take you into a place that’s very dark. But if you believe that you’re going to find a way out of it, (you can).”
More on the Diamondbacks momentarily. But first, let’s look more closely at the Phillies and Guardians — and how worried they should be about their own second-half issues.
The Phillies
The Phillies were riding high when they swept the Dodgers in July. Then things went sideways. (Bill Streicher / USA Today)
THEIR GREATEST HITS — On July 9-10-11, the Phillies bulldozed Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers in a three-game series in Philadelphia. So 93 games into their season, the Phillies were 61-32. They were on a 106-win pace. They were 6 1/2 games up on L.A. in the race for the National League’s No. 1 seed. They had the best pitching staff in the league and the deepest offense in the league. What could possibly go wrong? Ha.
HOW WRONG COULD IT GO? So naturally, over the Phillies’ next 35 games, they went 13-22. Only one team had a worse record over that six-week stretch. And it was — who else? — the White Sox. Just three teams had a worse ERA in that span. And the Phillies’ once-rampaging offense scored nearly 80 fewer runs in that stretch than Torey Lovullo’s Diamondbacks. So …
HOW’D THAT HAPPEN? There was one thing Dave Dombrowski knew: Whatever the heck was going on with his team, those 35 games were not telling him this group wasn’t talented enough.
“We had eight All-Stars, right?” the Phillies’ president of baseball operations said. “So that tells you you’re a very talented team. So you don’t go from a team that has a lot of talent to not having any talent.”
But Dombrowski did see several things that concerned him. One was the pitching — starting with a banged-up rotation whose issues wound up overtaxing the Phillies’ previously dominant bullpen.
Phillies pitching meltdown
| March 28 – July 11 | July 12 – Aug. 23 | |
|---|---|---|
|
Starters’ ERA |
3.17 |
4.58 |
|
Bullpen ERA |
3.32 |
5.89 |
|
Overall ERA |
3.22 |
5.10 |
But Dombrowski also was puzzled by the shocking decline of the offense after a consistently relentless first half. Next thing he knew, that same lineup spent a month re-enacting NLCS Games 6 and 7 against the Diamondbacks.
Phillies lineup meltdown
| March 28 – July 11 | July 12 – Aug. 23 |
|---|---|
|
.260/.331/.424/.755 |
.245/.309/.401/.710 |
|
3rd/3rd/4th/4th in MLB |
18th/19th/22nd/22nd in MLB |
Most of all, though, Dombrowski wondered if maybe they’d all gotten too comfortable after such a dominant first half. The Phillies had such a big lead by the middle of June, they seemed to start prioritizing what they could do to keep their core healthy for October. So Dombrowski admits he has asked himself if that possibly sent the wrong message.
“I don’t know,” he said. “Maybe we set the tempo somewhere. Maybe we started looking at the long term rather than the short term. But I’m not sure about that.”
He just knew there was time to fix what felt broken. And over the last couple of weeks, the Phillies seem to have done that, roaring through a 9-2 streak against the Royals, Astros, Braves, Blue Jays and Marlins. So what changed? We’ll get back to that momentarily. But first …
The Guardians
After a win over the White Sox on July 4, the high-flying Guardians were one of the worst teams in the AL over the next 48 games. (David Richard / USA Today)
THEIR GREATEST HITS — On the Fourth of July, the Guardians dusted off the White Sox to raise their record to 54-31. They led the AL Central by six games (after once leading by as many as nine in late June). They had the best record in the American League, the fewest runs allowed in the league and 80 more runs scored than they had at the same stage last season. So they were all set for a run at 100 wins, right? Oops.
HOW WRONG COULD IT GO? The marathon is always longer than it seems. Over the next 48 games, the Guardians went 21-27. Only two teams in the AL — the Angels and White Sox — had worse records in that stretch. The Guardians’ starting pitching imploded (10-24, 4.87 ERA). And going by their 83 wRC+, only two lineups in baseball were less productive.
By the end of play on Aug. 27, after a third straight loss at home to Kansas City, the Guardians’ nine-game pad had, shockingly, disappeared. The Royals had tied them in the standings. And a beautiful Cleveland baseball summer didn’t seem so balmy anymore. So …
HOW’D THAT HAPPEN? Was it really as bleak as all those messy factoids above made it seem? Not in the eyes of the Guardians’ unflappable president of baseball ops, Chris Antonetti.
“We had a really tough stretch of games after the All-Star break,” Antonetti said, “with seven of our nine opponents in playoff position at the time we played them.
“Last I looked,” he went on, “I think we have the second-most wins in the AL against teams with better than a .500 record. So we’ve held our own there.”
But does that record alone tell the full story of the Guardians? I’m not so sure it does.
Early in the season, balls were sailing over the fence. Steven Kwan seemed like he might make a charge at .400. And this looked like a completely different offense than the group that finished 27th in MLB in runs scored last year — and dead last in homers.
But what did the next seven weeks look like, after the White Sox left town on July 4? Not quite so picturesque!
Guardians lineup meltdown
| March 28 – July 4 | July 5 – Aug. 27 |
|---|---|
|
.245/.318/.410/.728 |
.220/.289/.360/.648 |
|
13th/11th/9th/12th in MLB |
27th/29th/28th/28th in MLB |
But also, there were …
Steven Kwan’s splits
| First half | Second half |
|---|---|
|
.352/.407/.513/.920* |
.194/.277/.286/.563** |
(*11th-best in MLB; **9th-lowest in MLB)
Like the Phillies, the Guardians seem to have rebounded in the last week or so. They’ve won five of their last seven. They’ve stretched their lead in the Central back to four games. And they averaged nearly seven runs per game in the five wins. So when Antonetti looks at these last two months, he sees just the normal “ebbs and flows to the regular season.”
He sees a rotation that looks much improved after the addition of Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd. He sees an offense whose downturn stemmed mostly from matchups with a bunch of excellent staffs. So here was his big-picture read:
“Maybe I’m not thinking about it deeply enough,” he said. “But I’m not sure there’s too much I’d make of it. There’s not a lot of predictability to which teams win and advance once the postseason starts.”
Then he asked: “Didn’t Texas and Arizona (the two World Series teams in 2023) struggle in August last year before surging in September?”
Excellent question! The Rangers lost 16 of 20 in August and September, but then won 17 of their next 21 games. And the Diamondbacks rocked through a wilder ride to the World Series than any team ever.
On July 1, they were 16 games over .500 (50-34). But then … repeat after me … baseball happened. The Diamondbacks won only seven of their next 32, propelling them from 16 games over .500 to two games under, with 46 left to play. Whereupon they boomeranged again, going 27-15 before getting swept in their final series of the season in Houston.
It added up to a sub-.500 second half — but with a season-saving rebound in September. And if that feels like a blueprint for all the teams on our Not So Good list, it’s because it is.
For every one of those teams, September offers the opportunity to rediscover their first-half mojo. And the Diamondbacks leaned into that opportunity, then used the memory of that rebound again this season to fuel their torrid recovery from a 25-32 start.
“I think our guys have a very high baseball IQ … and this innate belief,” Lovullo said. “We used to hope we were going to win games. We were so concerned about what’s happening across the field, in the other dugout. (But now) we believe in so much of what’s going on in our space that we know we’re going to find a way to get something done every single night.”
“If you let it spiral, it will take you into a place that’s very dark. But if you believe that you’re going to find a way out of it, (you can),” said Torey Lovullo, who guided the 2023 D-Backs to an unlikely World Series appearance. (Joe Camporeale / USA Today)
So what have we learned from these rides on the baseball roller coaster? It’s as basic as a 3-and-2 fastball:
Wake me up before September ends
If all of this feels familiar to Dave Dombrowski, it’s because he has seen this movie before. Heck, he lived this movie — with the 2006 Tigers.
“It’s funny. I was talking to Jim Leyland (the manager of that Tigers team) about 2006 just recently,” Dombrowski said. “And we agreed that one of the common denominators was: You must have had a really good first half … to qualify for the postseason and still be below .500 in the second half. So basically, it usually means the talent is there. And for some reason, you’ve fallen off. So why?”
Why? Dombrowski believes there’s no more important question for any team to contemplate. When a team begins to slide, there is almost always more than one reason. But the danger sign he’s always on the lookout for is when a team with a big lead takes its foot off the accelerator.
“Sometimes,” he said, “some people will become somewhat, I don’t know if this is the right word, but content. They’ll lose a little bit of that extra fire. And even though that’s not good, what you need to do is rekindle that fire — to find it again in order to be successful in the postseason.”
That’s exactly what happened to that 2006 Tigers team, he believes. So “the key to getting back on track,” he said, “is the ‘why’ — and how do you fix it?”
In 2006, Leyland delivered a message to his troops that September: Let’s get focused. And over the past couple of weeks, Dombrowski said, his manager in Philly, Rob Thomson, has empowered the leaders in his clubhouse to sing that same tune.
“It’s something they’ve talked about,” Dombrowski said, “something they’ve worked on. And I think they’ve already gotten that message across. I think we’ve played much better (recently). And we really needed to get that back in gear.”
Is the baseball marathon a series of ebbs and flows? It always is. And sometimes those ebbs and flows even strike in September. But as October nears, Dombrowski has long understood, the best teams know it’s the ability to play with focus and energy every day that often separates the champs from everyone else.
So in baseball, September isn’t foliage time. It’s focus time.
“It’s just one of those things,” he said, “where you just need to kind of get it back. When you win a lot of games early, you put yourself in a position where you can withstand that little lull.
“But you’re not going to win a championship,” Dombrowski said, “if you continue to have that lull going into the postseason.”
(Top photo of Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh: Matt Krohn / Getty Images)
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Tiger Woods was released from jail Friday night after he was arrested earlier in the day on a DUI charge following a car crash in Florida.
In a mugshot released hours after his arrest, Woods’ eyes appeared bloodshot, as he donned a blue polo inside the Martin County Jail in Florida.
Woods was seen leaving the jail in the passenger seat of a black SUV after his release on bail late Friday, according to The Associated Press.
Martin County Sheriff John Budensiek confirmed in a news conference that Woods was traveling at “a high rate of speed” when his vehicle collided with another car, resulting in his vehicle rolling over onto the driver’s side.
Tiger Woods was booked into Martin County, Florida, jail on March 27, 2026. (AP)
Authorities said Woods “exemplified signs of impairment.” He blew “triple-zeroes” for alcohol but refused a urine test.
“DUI investigators came to the scene here, and Mr. Woods did exemplify signs of impairment. They did several tests on him. Of course, he did explain the injuries and the surgeries that he had. We did take that into account, but they did do some in-depth roadside tests,” Budensiek added.
“We really weren’t suspicious of alcohol being involved in this case, and that proved to be true at the jail. … But when it came time for us to ask for a urinalysis test, he refused. And, so, he’s been charged with DUI, with property damage and refusal to submit to a lawful test.”
Woods was spotted on the phone after the crash, wearing navy blue shorts.
Woods was charged with DUI, property damage and refusal to submit to a test, all misdemeanor charges. No one was injured, authorities said. Woods was alone in the car and crawled out of the passenger door after the crash.
Tiger Woods was driven from the Martin County Jail after being arrested for driving under the influence following a car crash on March 27, 2026, in Stuart, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
VANESSA, KAI TRUMP TAKE IN TIGER WOODS’ RETURN TO GOLF AT TGL FINALS
“This could’ve been a lot worse,” Budensiek noted.
President Donald Trump commented on the arrest of his “very close friend.”
“I feel so badly. He’s got some difficulty,” Trump said. “There was an accident, and that’s all I know. Very close friend of mine. He’s an amazing person, an amazing man, but some difficulty.”
Woods has not commented on the arrest.
Tiger Woods was arrested on a DUI charge after getting into a car crash on Friday. (Associated Press)
Woods currently is dating Trump’s ex-daughter-in-law, Vanessa, whose daughter, Kai, is set to play college golf in Miami next week.
This is Woods’ second DUI arrest within the last decade. In 2017, he was taken into custody, also in Jupiter Island, after taking prescription drugs and being asleep behind the wheel of a running car at 3 a.m.
In 2021, he got into a wreck that resulted in serious leg injuries that kept him off the golf course for the entire year.
Golfer Tiger Woods stands by his overturned vehicle in Jupiter Island, Fla., Friday, March 27, 2026. (Jason Oteri/AP)
Woods made his return to competitive golf earlier this week in the TGL championship after rupturing his Achilles just before last year’s Masters (this year’s tournament is in less than two weeks). Woods has not appeared on the links since the 2024 PGA Championship, in which he missed the cut.
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For the second time in less than a week, Luka Doncic faces a one-game suspension because of technical foul accumulation.
Only a week after Doncic’s 16th technical foul was rescinded by the NBA, the Lakers superstar picked up another one in a 116-99 win over the Brooklyn Nets on Friday and is in line to miss the Lakers’ next game against the Washington Wizards on Monday.
In the third quarter with the Lakers trailing by one against the lowly Nets (17-57), Doncic was called for an offensive foul against Nic Claxton as the Lakers (48-26) were trying to inbound the ball after a dunk by Ziaire Williams. After the Lakers turnover, Williams and Doncic appeared to exchange words with Doncic pushing Williams aside with one hand. Williams then flailed his arms behind him and slapped Doncic in the throat.
“He was yelling in my face three times,” said Doncic, who finished with 41 points, eight rebounds and three assists in the win. “I just wanted to get out of there. … I didn’t even talk. I just wanted to get out of there. And they said I pushed. My push was exaggerated, which was obviously not [the case].”
Both were assessed technical fouls with 5:12 remaining in the third quarter, and Williams’ hit was reviewed for a possible flagrant, although it was not upgraded.
The NBA requires players to sit out for one game without pay after their 16th technical foul of the season. But Doncic avoided that fate after the NBA rescinded the foul that would have forced him to the bench for a critical road game last week. Lakers coach JJ Redick said the Lakers will try to appeal Doncic’s latest foul but he did not see what happened on the play.
Last week, Doncic avoided a suspension after the NBA rescinded the foul that would have forced him to the bench for a critical road game against the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons. Doncic is slated to miss Monday’s game against the Wizards, who have lost 17 of their last 18 games and have the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference (17-56).
Lakers star Luka Doncic reacts to a referee’s call during the second half Friday against the Brooklyn Nets at Crypto.com Arena.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
Doncic picked up his first 16th technical foul last week against the Orlando Magic after getting into an argument with Orlando forward Goga Bitadze. Doncic claimed Bitadze directed a vulgar comment about Doncic’s family in Serbian toward the Lakers star guard. Bitadze refuted the story, saying it was actually Doncic who said the curse word out loud first and that he was only repeating what he heard.
The NBA rescinded both fouls upon review the following day.
Doncic, the NBA’s leading scorer, has scored 30 points or more in 12 consecutive games, the longest such streak in his career. He has 43 30-point games this season, tying Elgin Baylor and Jerry West for sixth-most in a season by a Lakers player. He has scored 40 points or more in the last 12 games.
Against the Nets, Austin Reaves finished with 26 points, eight rebounds and five assists and LeBron James had 14 points, eight assists and six rebounds.
Before the game, Redick said the Nets game would be like playing on the road since the Lakers had spent almost two weeks away from Crypto.com Arena and had returned home in the wee hours of Thursday morning from Indianapolis.
Lakers guard Austin Reaves celebrates after shooting a three-pointer against the Nets in the second half Friday.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
The challenge was to find the energy to play, which wasn’t a problem for Doncic, who had 24 points in the first half. Doncic was nine for 15 from the field in the first half and four for six from three-point range in 20 minutes. He finished shooting 15 for 25 from the field as the Lakers shot 54% from the floor. They shot 44% (11 for 25) from three-point range.
That the Lakers were facing a Nets team with the second-worst record in the NBA didn’t matter.
That the Lakers were facing a Nets team had lost nine of its last 10 games didn’t matter.
That the Lakers were facing a Nets team that’s last in the league in scoring (106.3 points per game) didn’t matter.
Lakers center Deandre Ayton, left, blocks a shot by Brooklyn Nets guard Nolan Traore in the first half Friday.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
What mattered to the Lakers was finding a way to win as the regular season winds down.
“I felt like we were a step slow,” Redick said. “And I told the guys at halftime, ‘This is our seventh game of the road trip. Anytime you come back, there’s a day in between, that’s just you’re in another city until you can get adjusted to the time zone and you get a couple days break.’ So the next two [off] days will be good for us.”
Notes: Lakers broadcast analyst Stu Lantz missed Friday night’s game against the Nets because of health issues. Derek Fisher, who won five NBA titles with the Lakers, took over Lantz’s role for the game. Public address announcer Lawrence Tanter also missed the game because of a health matter. Jason Barquero filled in for Lantz. “The entire Lakers organization is wishing Lawrence all the best in his recovery, and we look forward to welcoming him back soon,” the team said in a statement.
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Tiger Woods was involved in a car crash on Jupiter Island in Florida on Friday, according to multiple reports.
The Martin County Sheriff’s Office told ESPN that the crash happened on Jupiter Island. Woods’ condition was not immediately known.
Woods competed in the TGL championship earlier this week with his girlfriend, Vanessa Trump, and her daughter, Kai, in the stands. It was his return to competitive golf after rupturing his Achilles last year, just ahead of the Masters.
Tiger Woods of Jupiter Links Golf Club looks on before the match against the Los Angeles Golf Club at SoFi Center on March 23, 2026, in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. (Adam Glanzman/TGL/TGL Golf via Getty Images)
The 15-time major winner, five of which have come at Augusta, was noncommittal about playing at this year’s Masters. President Donald Trump said on “The Five” on Thursday that he would be at Augusta but not play.
Woods has had trouble behind the wheel in the past. In 2021, he got into a wreck that resulted in serious leg injuries that kept him off the golf course for months.
This is a breaking story. Check back for more updates.
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