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Does a rough second half matter in October? Some World Series hopefuls might want to look away

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Does a rough second half matter in October? Some World Series hopefuls might want to look away

Who doesn’t love a good what-if question, so let’s ask this one:

What if this baseball season had started in the middle of July instead of the last week of March? Have you thought much about how differently we’d be viewing nearly every contender in the sport?

Of course you haven’t. But that’s what we’re here for. So take a look at the second-half records of all the teams that would make the postseason if the tournament started today, with the Braves and Mets both included since they’re tied for the final NL wild-card spot. First, let’s look at …

The Good

Padres: 30-13
Diamondbacks: 30-14
Dodgers: 28-15
Brewers: 26-17
Mets: 27-18
Astros: 25-19
Royals: 24-20

We can talk about those teams some other time. But now let’s hone in on the rest of this group. See what jumps out at you as you peruse …

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The Not So Good

Twins: 22-23
Guardians: 22-23
Phillies: 22-22
Orioles: 23-22
Yankees: 22-20
Braves: 23-22

You know which two teams jumped out at me? The Phillies and Guardians. Aren’t they the ultimate reminder that a baseball season can feel as long and winding as the Appalachian Trail?

For more than three months this season, the Phillies and Guardians owned the two best records in the sport. Then baseball happened.

On July 1, they were both on 100-win paces. Now, as that standings chart illustrates so vividly, they’ve spent the past two months playing more like an 80-win team than a 100-win team. Funny how that happens. The question is, what does it mean for their win-the-World-Series aspirations?

They’re not the first teams in history to discover how long a baseball season really is. But that isn’t the story here.

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The story is: A rough second half, for teams like this, often means more than you’d probably guess it means. I’ve done the math so you don’t have to.

The wild-card era is 30 seasons old now. You’d think the wild-card safety net would have given many teams the rope to slog through a .500-ish second half — or worse — and still be ready to rock in October. But if that’s what you’d think, think again. Check out what’s actually happened, just in the theoretically more forgiving wild-card era (1995-present).

Losing second-half records, still made it to the World Series

2023 Diamondbacks: 32-39
2006 Cardinals: 35-39
2006 Tigers: 36-38

Worst second-half records, won the World Series

2006 Cardinals: 35-39
1996 Yankees: 40-37
2014 Giants: 35-31

(Source: Baseball Reference / Stathead)

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Adam Wainwright celebrates after the Cardinals defeated the Tigers in Game 5 to win the 2006 World Series.  (David E. Klutho / Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)

Yes, you read that right. In the wild-card era, only one team has survived a losing record after the All-Star break and still won the World Series. …

And only three teams have played .500 or worse and even lived to play in a World Series — where two of them (the 2006 Cardinals and Tigers) actually matched up with each other. …

But even if we raise the bar slightly, every World Series winner in these last three decades has been at least five games over .500 in the second half — except for the three teams above.

So what does that tell us about baseball? Let’s ask the manager of the club that had the worst second half of any of the teams on those lists — Torey Lovullo of the 2023 Diamondbacks.

“It’s an emotional roller coaster,” Lovullo told me and Doug Glanville on the latest episode of The Windup’s Starkville podcast. “This game is crazy. And it will wear you down.”

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So how does any team spin through that roller coaster and survive with enough equilibrium to hit the reset button in October?

“We talk about consistency,” Lovullo said. “We just want to have guys that understand where they’re at and not get too high or not get too low. But eventually, we’re going to find our way. It’s the madness of a baseball season, and it does happen. And if you let it spiral, it will take you into a place that’s very dark. But if you believe that you’re going to find a way out of it, (you can).”

More on the Diamondbacks momentarily. But first, let’s look more closely at the Phillies and Guardians — and how worried they should be about their own second-half issues.

The Phillies


The Phillies were riding high when they swept the Dodgers in July. Then things went sideways. (Bill Streicher / USA Today)

THEIR GREATEST HITS — On July 9-10-11, the Phillies bulldozed Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers in a three-game series in Philadelphia. So 93 games into their season, the Phillies were 61-32. They were on a 106-win pace. They were 6 1/2 games up on L.A. in the race for the National League’s No. 1 seed. They had the best pitching staff in the league and the deepest offense in the league. What could possibly go wrong? Ha.

HOW WRONG COULD IT GO? So naturally, over the Phillies’ next 35 games, they went 13-22. Only one team had a worse record over that six-week stretch. And it was — who else? — the White Sox. Just three teams had a worse ERA in that span. And the Phillies’ once-rampaging offense scored nearly 80 fewer runs in that stretch than Torey Lovullo’s Diamondbacks. So …

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HOW’D THAT HAPPEN? There was one thing Dave Dombrowski knew: Whatever the heck was going on with his team, those 35 games were not telling him this group wasn’t talented enough.

“We had eight All-Stars, right?” the Phillies’ president of baseball operations said. “So that tells you you’re a very talented team. So you don’t go from a team that has a lot of talent to not having any talent.”

But Dombrowski did see several things that concerned him. One was the pitching — starting with a banged-up rotation whose issues wound up overtaxing the Phillies’ previously dominant bullpen.

Phillies pitching meltdown

March 28 – July 11 July 12 – Aug. 23

Starters’ ERA

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3.17  

4.58

Bullpen ERA  

3.32

5.89

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Overall ERA

3.22 

5.10

But Dombrowski also was puzzled by the shocking decline of the offense after a consistently relentless first half. Next thing he knew, that same lineup spent a month re-enacting NLCS Games 6 and 7 against the Diamondbacks.

Phillies lineup meltdown

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March 28 – July 11 July 12 – Aug. 23

.260/.331/.424/.755 

.245/.309/.401/.710

3rd/3rd/4th/4th in MLB  

18th/19th/22nd/22nd in MLB

Most of all, though, Dombrowski wondered if maybe they’d all gotten too comfortable after such a dominant first half. The Phillies had such a big lead by the middle of June, they seemed to start prioritizing what they could do to keep their core healthy for October. So Dombrowski admits he has asked himself if that possibly sent the wrong message.

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“I don’t know,” he said. “Maybe we set the tempo somewhere. Maybe we started looking at the long term rather than the short term. But I’m not sure about that.”

He just knew there was time to fix what felt broken. And over the last couple of weeks, the Phillies seem to have done that, roaring through a 9-2 streak against the Royals, Astros, Braves, Blue Jays and Marlins. So what changed? We’ll get back to that momentarily. But first …

The Guardians


After a win over the White Sox on July 4, the high-flying Guardians were one of the worst teams in the AL over the next 48 games. (David Richard / USA Today)

THEIR GREATEST HITS — On the Fourth of July, the Guardians dusted off the White Sox to raise their record to 54-31. They led the AL Central by six games (after once leading by as many as nine in late June). They had the best record in the American League, the fewest runs allowed in the league and 80 more runs scored than they had at the same stage last season. So they were all set for a run at 100 wins, right? Oops.

HOW WRONG COULD IT GO? The marathon is always longer than it seems. Over the next 48 games, the Guardians went 21-27. Only two teams in the AL — the Angels and White Sox — had worse records in that stretch. The Guardians’ starting pitching imploded (10-24, 4.87 ERA). And going by their 83 wRC+, only two lineups in baseball were less productive.

By the end of play on Aug. 27, after a third straight loss at home to Kansas City, the Guardians’ nine-game pad had, shockingly, disappeared. The Royals had tied them in the standings. And a beautiful Cleveland baseball summer didn’t seem so balmy anymore. So …

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HOW’D THAT HAPPEN? Was it really as bleak as all those messy factoids above made it seem? Not in the eyes of the Guardians’ unflappable president of baseball ops, Chris Antonetti.

“We had a really tough stretch of games after the All-Star break,” Antonetti said, “with seven of our nine opponents in playoff position at the time we played them.

“Last I looked,” he went on, “I think we have the second-most wins in the AL against teams with better than a .500 record. So we’ve held our own there.”

But does that record alone tell the full story of the Guardians? I’m not so sure it does.

Early in the season, balls were sailing over the fence. Steven Kwan seemed like he might make a charge at .400. And this looked like a completely different offense than the group that finished 27th in MLB in runs scored last year — and dead last in homers.

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But what did the next seven weeks look like, after the White Sox left town on July 4? Not quite so picturesque!

Guardians lineup meltdown

March 28 – July 4 July 5 – Aug. 27

.245/.318/.410/.728

.220/.289/.360/.648

13th/11th/9th/12th in MLB

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27th/29th/28th/28th in MLB

But also, there were …

Steven Kwan’s splits

First half Second half

.352/.407/.513/.920*

.194/.277/.286/.563**

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 (*11th-best in MLB; **9th-lowest in MLB)

Like the Phillies, the Guardians seem to have rebounded in the last week or so. They’ve won five of their last seven. They’ve stretched their lead in the Central back to four games. And they averaged nearly seven runs per game in the five wins. So when Antonetti looks at these last two months, he sees just the normal “ebbs and flows to the regular season.”

He sees a rotation that looks much improved after the addition of Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd. He sees an offense whose downturn stemmed mostly from matchups with a bunch of excellent staffs. So here was his big-picture read:

“Maybe I’m not thinking about it deeply enough,” he said. “But I’m not sure there’s too much I’d make of it. There’s not a lot of predictability to which teams win and advance once the postseason starts.”

Then he asked: “Didn’t Texas and Arizona (the two World Series teams in 2023) struggle in August last year before surging in September?”

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Excellent question! The Rangers lost 16 of 20 in August and September, but then won 17 of their next 21 games. And the Diamondbacks rocked through a wilder ride to the World Series than any team ever.

On July 1, they were 16 games over .500 (50-34). But then … repeat after me … baseball happened. The Diamondbacks won only seven of their next 32, propelling them from 16 games over .500 to two games under, with 46 left to play. Whereupon they boomeranged again, going 27-15 before getting swept in their final series of the season in Houston.

It added up to a sub-.500 second half — but with a season-saving rebound in September. And if that feels like a blueprint for all the teams on our Not So Good list, it’s because it is.

For every one of those teams, September offers the opportunity to rediscover their first-half mojo. And the Diamondbacks leaned into that opportunity, then used the memory of that rebound again this season to fuel their torrid recovery from a 25-32 start.

“I think our guys have a very high baseball IQ … and this innate belief,” Lovullo said. “We used to hope we were going to win games. We were so concerned about what’s happening across the field, in the other dugout. (But now) we believe in so much of what’s going on in our space that we know we’re going to find a way to get something done every single night.”

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“If you let it spiral, it will take you into a place that’s very dark. But if you believe that you’re going to find a way out of it, (you can),” said Torey Lovullo, who guided the 2023 D-Backs to an unlikely World Series appearance. (Joe Camporeale / USA Today)

So what have we learned from these rides on the baseball roller coaster? It’s as basic as a 3-and-2 fastball:

Wake me up before September ends

If all of this feels familiar to Dave Dombrowski, it’s because he has seen this movie before. Heck, he lived this movie — with the 2006 Tigers.

“It’s funny. I was talking to Jim Leyland (the manager of that Tigers team) about 2006 just recently,” Dombrowski said. “And we agreed that one of the common denominators was: You must have had a really good first half … to qualify for the postseason and still be below .500 in the second half.  So basically, it usually means the talent is there. And for some reason, you’ve fallen off. So why?”

Why? Dombrowski believes there’s no more important question for any team to contemplate. When a team begins to slide, there is almost always more than one reason. But the danger sign he’s always on the lookout for is when a team with a big lead takes its foot off the accelerator.

“Sometimes,” he said, “some people will become somewhat, I don’t know if this is the right word, but content. They’ll lose a little bit of that extra fire. And even though that’s not good, what you need to do is rekindle that fire — to find it again in order to be successful in the postseason.”

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That’s exactly what happened to that 2006 Tigers team, he believes. So “the key to getting back on track,” he said, “is the ‘why’ — and how do you fix it?”

In 2006, Leyland delivered a message to his troops that September: Let’s get focused. And over the past couple of weeks, Dombrowski said, his manager in Philly, Rob Thomson, has empowered the leaders in his clubhouse to sing that same tune.

“It’s something they’ve talked about,” Dombrowski said, “something they’ve worked on. And I think they’ve already gotten that message across. I think we’ve played much better (recently). And we really needed to get that back in gear.”

Is the baseball marathon a series of ebbs and flows? It always is. And sometimes those ebbs and flows even strike in September. But as October nears, Dombrowski has long understood, the best teams know it’s the ability to play with focus and energy every day that often separates the champs from everyone else.

So in baseball, September isn’t foliage time. It’s focus time.

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“It’s just one of those things,” he said, “where you just need to kind of get it back. When you win a lot of games early, you put yourself in a position where you can withstand that little lull.

“But you’re not going to win a championship,” Dombrowski said, “if you continue to have that lull going into the postseason.”

(Top photo of Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh: Matt Krohn / Getty Images)

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SMU’s CFP nightmare: Interceptions, diverted billionaires and a ‘shell-shocked’ Cinderella

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SMU’s CFP nightmare: Interceptions, diverted billionaires and a ‘shell-shocked’ Cinderella

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Billions of dollars can buy a lot of things. It can help revive a football program and get your alma mater into a bigger conference. It can buy a private jet. But it can’t clear more space at a tiny regional airport.

SMU donor Bill Armstrong’s last name is on the team’s indoor practice facility. His plane, which included two-time U.S. Open champion golfer Bryson DeChambeau and former Mustangs star running back Craig James, left Dallas around 6:30 a.m. CT for State College, Pa. But upon arrival, it was diverted to Williamsport, as were some other SMU private planes. The airport was full.

If you believe in harbingers, this was an ominous one, the limits of SMU’s money on display. From a party bus on the drive to the stadium, several SMU donors and former players watched on their phones as quarterback Kevin Jennings threw two pick sixes. By the time they arrived at Beaver Stadium, the score was 21-0, the game all but over.

“Still a great season,” Armstrong said after the game, pulling gloves out of his pocket and refusing to get too down. To him, there was no doubt that the 11-win Mustangs belonged here.

The final score was 38-10. As the last at-large team in the field, the discourse over College Football Playoff blowouts and selection committee decisions turned to SMU, one day after Indiana was manhandled by Notre Dame.

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On display at Penn State was the difference between being a CFP darling, a fun story, and a CFP contender. It’s a gap so often exposed at this stage of the season.

“We didn’t play well enough to say anything that isn’t going to be written,” head coach Rhett Lashlee said. “It’ll be written, should we be in or did we belong? That’s fine. You’re welcome to write it. We didn’t play good today. But this is a quality team. We had a good team. We deserve to be here. We earned the right to be here. I’m disappointed we didn’t play to the level that validates that.”

What’s too bad is SMU didn’t even give itself a chance. Before kickoff, Lashlee told the broadcast his team had to avoid a bad start like it’d had in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson, when Jennings had two bad turnovers.

What happened this time? First, Jennings missed a wide-open Matthew Hibner in the end zone on what should’ve been a fourth-down touchdown to cap SMU’s opening drive. On the second drive, Jennings threw a pick six, missing a short throw out of the backfield. On the fourth drive, Jennings threw another pick six, a desperate attempt to make a play on third down instead of throwing the ball away.

SMU was down 14-0 despite playing pretty well otherwise and holding up in the trenches. The defense to that point had been stout.

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“That kind of shell-shocked us a little bit,” Lashlee said of the turnover scores.

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College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Odds to advance for every team in the bracket

Jennings has been turnover-prone. He had five against Duke, but the Mustangs rallied to win that one. SMU also rallied from his two turnovers against Clemson to tie things up late. But Penn State is another level up in competition.

“We don’t have an Abdul Carter,” Lashlee said, referring to Penn State’s All-America edge rusher who was in the backfield constantly and did more than his two tackles for loss indicate, constantly sending Jennings out of the pocket. Penn State’s defense finished with 11 tackles for loss.

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For his part, Jennings said his early miss in the end zone didn’t linger in his head and lead to the interceptions. Lashlee blamed the second quarter tipped red zone interception on himself, saying he should’ve just called a running play. Jennings blamed himself.

“I made mistakes three times and gave them the ball with careless mistakes,” the typically quiet Jennings said. “I didn’t take care of the ball.”

Asked if he considered replacing Jennings with backup Preston Stone, Lashlee didn’t indicate it ever came up until the fourth quarter. Stone, who was the Mustangs’ starting quarterback last year and at the beginning of this year, entered the transfer portal earlier this month but had stayed with the SMU team. When Lashlee pulled Jennings late, everyone decided they didn’t want Stone to get hurt on his way out at that point in the game, the coach said. After the final horn sounded, multiple reports emerged that Stone was heading to Northwestern.

A 38-10 game is not close, nor is it competitive. Penn State was clearly the better team, one that will be favored to win the Fiesta Bowl against No. 3 seed Boise State. But SMU finished with more first downs and held PSU to 5.0 yards per play, though the amount of garbage time certainly factored into those respectable stats.

SMU scored just three points on four red zone trips and gave away 14 points on the interception return touchdowns. It’s why Lashlee was so frustrated. He knows how it looks. He can’t argue otherwise.

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“People are going to see 38-10 or (28-0 at) halftime and say they don’t belong, but the two pick sixes and we had our opportunities,” he said. “We don’t have anybody to blame but ourselves. It should’ve been a good defensive struggle in the 20s. We didn’t do that.”

SMU long felt that if it just got a power conference invitation, it would show it belonged. The Mustangs showed they belonged in the ACC, going 8-0 in conference play. But they didn’t show they’re ready for this stage yet. Nittany Lions coach James Franklin takes a lot of heat from fans and detractors for not winning the big games, but he almost always wins the games in which Penn State has more talent.

Underdog stories typically end with a thud in the CFP, and SMU and Indiana join a list that includes Cincinnati, TCU and others. Top-level talent wins in the end, and SMU doesn’t have that yet.

Lashlee and SMU will spend the ensuing months hearing those that say SMU shouldn’t have been in the CFP, that Alabama deserved the spot (even though Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe’s three-interception performance in a 21-point loss to 6-6 Oklahoma in mid-November was nearly exactly the same as Jennings’ at Penn State). That’s what comes with this stage.

SMU found itself here for the first time and didn’t deliver. As the party bus headed back to Williamsport and the private planes flew back to Dallas, SMU’s coaches, players and billionaires left with a clear vision of just how far they still have to go.

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(Photo: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)

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Ravens take down Steelers to keep AFC North race open

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Ravens take down Steelers to keep AFC North race open

The Baltimore Ravens punched their ticket to the postseason and kept their hopes for a division title alive Saturday. 

With a 34-17 win over the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore could reclaim first place in the final two weeks. 

Pittsburgh (10-5) would have clinched the division with a victory, but now the teams are deadlocked after the Ravens (10-5) won for just the second time in the last 10 games of the series. Baltimore clinched a playoff berth with the win. 

The Steelers had already clinched a playoff spot.

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Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson throws from the pocket during the second half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium.  (Tommy Gilligan/Imagn Images)

Russell Wilson threw two touchdown passes, the second of which tied the game at 17 with 5:14 left in the third quarter. Jackson answered with a 7-yard scoring strike to Mark Andrews.

After Pittsburgh turned the ball over on downs, a 44-yard run by Derrick Henry put the Ravens in the red zone.

LIONS’ JOSH PASCHAL DISCUSSES WHY HE FEELS LIKE IT’S DESTINY TO BE PLAYING IN DETROIT

russell wilson tackled

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (3) during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium. (Tommy Gilligan/Imagn Images)

That drive ended when Jackson was intercepted for just the fourth time this season, but Marlon Humphrey picked off Wilson and ran 37 yards to the end zone to give Baltimore a cushion in a series that’s been tight of late. The previous nine games between the Steelers and Ravens were decided by seven points or fewer.

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Jackson improved to 2-4 against Pittsburgh as a starter. Saturday’s game marked his first time facing the Steelers at home since 2020.

Henry rushed for 162 yards.

Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) is defended by Pittsburgh Steelers safety Damontae Kazee (23) in the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium.  (Tommy Gilligan/Imagn Images)

Pittsburgh entered the game with a plus-18 turnover margin, but the Ravens had the edge in that department Saturday. Baltimore recovered three of its own fumbles and had two big takeaways.

Now the Steelers will have to deal with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day before finishing the season at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens will travel to Houston to play the Texans on Christmas Day before finishing the season at home against the Cleveland Browns. 

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The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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JuJu Watkins and No. 7 USC hold off No. 4 Connecticut to win in a thriller

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JuJu Watkins and No. 7 USC hold off No. 4 Connecticut to win in a thriller

In a marquee matchup Saturday night, No. 7 USC defeated perennial powerhouse No. 4 Connecticut 72-70, avenging its Elite Eight loss to the Huskies in April and strengthening its status as one of the nation’s elite teams.

“This is a really significant win, and it’s a significant win because of the stature of the UConn program and what [Connecticut coach] Geno Auriemma has done for our sport,” USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb said. “I told [the team] in [the locker room] — for me, for my entire high school and on, this is what basketball excellence was, this is what we saw. And it’s challenged all of us to want to be better, to find players who want to be better and be that elite.”

Undeterred playing in front of a sold-out crowd on the road, USC opened the game with a 9-0 run, capitalizing on cold shooting and defensive lapses from the Huskies. Buoyed by 15 points from JuJu Watkins, the Trojans shot 48.6% from the floor in the first half, including seven for 11 from three-point range, to take a 42-29 lead at halftime.

“A lot of the things [JuJu] does [are] super hard, but she makes it look so easy,” USC forward Kiki Iriafen said. “So I think she really got us going on the offensive end … we all know she’s a superstar, so playing with her definitely relieved the pressure on everybody else.”

Connecticut came out of the locker room with increased intensity, forcing seven Trojan turnovers and limiting Watkins to four points in the third quarter. Propelled by nine points from guard Paige Bueckers, the Huskies outscored USC (11-1) 20-13 in the third quarter, cutting their deficit to six points entering the fourth.

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Connecticut (10-2) continued to chip away and took its first and only lead when freshman Sarah Strong scored on a layup with 4:34 left. USC regained the lead moments later on a Watkins jumper, but the Huskies wouldn’t let the Trojans pull away.

“I don’t think we were ever really rattled,” Watkins said. “We knew what [Connecticut] is capable of, they were going to go on runs, so it was just a matter of handling that and coming down on top.”

With USC leading by three with five seconds left, Strong drew a foul off Watkins while attempting a three-point shot. Strong made her first free throw, but missed her second attempt. After Strong missed her final attempt, Bueckers grabbed the rebound and fed the ball back to Strong, who missed a logo three at the buzzer.

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Watkins finished with 25 points, six rebounds, five assists and three blocks. Iriafen had 16 points, 11 rebounds and six assists.

Bueckers and Strong each had 22 points.

Auriemma praised Watkins’ exceptional talent.

“Every scouting report that you put together, or every film that you watch, it’s very evident that one player can’t guard her,” Auriemma said. “You have to hope she helps, you have to hope she misses. And when she gets a little bit of a rhythm like she got in that first half, it’s really, really difficult … there’s qualities that she has that are just unique.”

Watkins showed why she’s one of the nation’s brightest stars, helping the Trojans earn a signature win. The victory was a showcase of the elite talent that has accelerated women’s college basketball’s growth in popularity.

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“It’s just a testament to when you give women a platform, we’re going to perform,” Watkins said. “And I think that tonight was an excellent game. … It was just beautiful to be a part of. And I couldn’t imagine watching it — so, super exciting. And I think, as we continue to get games like this, we’ll always show up.”

The Trojans next play No. 20 Michigan at Galen Center on Dec. 29.

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