Sports
College Football Playoff bracket predictions: The Athletic’s national championship picks
Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff? Six teams received at least one vote in our survey of 30 college football writers and editors at The Athletic, a big change from 10 years of postseason tournaments in which only four teams were in the field.
Though Oregon got a majority of the votes, plenty of variety emerged as our staff filled out their brackets ahead of the first round, which begins with Indiana at Notre Dame on Friday night. In fact, even No. 12 seed Clemson, which has three losses, got a national championship vote.
Here’s who we picked and how those predictions compare to Austin Mock’s projections model:
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College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Odds to advance for all 12 teams in the bracket
First round
| First round | Staff | Model |
|---|---|---|
|
63.3% |
71% |
|
|
36.7% |
29% |
|
|
90.0% |
72% |
|
|
10.0% |
28% |
|
|
90.0% |
65% |
|
|
10.0% |
35% |
|
|
73.3% |
67% |
|
|
26.7% |
33% |
Not surprisingly, the consensus of our 30 voters is chalk.
Per BetMGM, the better seed is favored by at least 7.5 points in every first-round game. Mock’s projections give each favorite at least a 65 percent chance to win, and our closest staff vote is Tennessee getting 11 votes to win at Ohio State in a matchup that undoubtedly presents challenges for the Buckeyes, especially after the way their offensive line played in the loss to Michigan.
Quarterfinals
| Rose Bowl | Staff | Model |
|---|---|---|
|
83.3% |
53% |
|
|
16.7% |
37% |
|
|
0.0% |
11% |
Oregon ended up with a tough draw despite being the nation’s only unbeaten team, as it will head to the Rose Bowl to face the winner of Ohio State-Tennessee. Mock’s model gives the Ducks just a 53 percent chance of getting through. Ohio State would be a rematch, as Oregon beat the Buckeyes 32-31 in a thriller in Eugene in October.
Still, 25 of our 30 voters picked Oregon to win the Rose Bowl, compared to just five for Ohio State and zero for Tennessee. Every person who picked the Buckeyes to beat Oregon also picked them to win the national title.
|
Peach Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
80.0% |
60% |
|
|
13.3% |
22% |
|
|
6.7% |
18% |
Arizona State is seeded fourth as the Big 12 champion but ranked 12th in the CFP Top 25 — nine spots behind Texas and four spots ahead of Clemson. Texas is the overwhelming favorite to both beat Clemson and get through the Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl to advance to an in-state semifinal in the Cotton Bowl, with only four people choosing Arizona State to win and two picking Clemson.
|
Sugar Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
53.3% |
52% |
|
|
46.7% |
34% |
|
|
0.0% |
14% |
Only three of 30 voters picked Indiana to beat Notre Dame, and none had the Hoosiers pulling off two upsets and also taking down Georgia. The staff is split on a potential Georgia-Notre Dame Sugar Bowl, however: Fourteen of the 27 people to pick Notre Dame to beat Indiana also have the Fighting Irish toppling the Bulldogs.
|
Fiesta Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
53.3% |
33% |
|
|
36.7% |
48% |
|
|
10.0% |
19% |
This is the least chalky part of the bracket. Most voters like Penn State to beat SMU at home, but our staff is fond of Boise State revitalizing its Cinderella status on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl. Historically, both the Nittany Lions (7-0) and Broncos (3-0) are unbeaten in the Fiesta Bowl. Here, only half of the 22 voters who picked Penn State to beat SMU also picked the Nittany Lions to beat Boise State. In total, Boise State gets 16 votes to win the Fiesta Bowl to Penn State’s 12 and SMU’s two.
Mock’s model disagrees, as it has Penn State beating both SMU and Boise State 48 percent of the time.
Semifinals
|
Cotton Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
66.7% |
32% |
|
|
16.7% |
25% |
|
|
13.3% |
29% |
|
|
3.3% |
5% |
|
|
0.0% |
5% |
|
|
0.0% |
4% |
Whoever emerges from the Oregon-Ohio State-Tennessee trio may end up with a tough draw in the semifinals in the Cotton Bowl against Texas, which would be playing close to home. Still, two-thirds of our staff likes Oregon to win the Cotton Bowl, while just five opted for Ohio State, four chose Texas and one rolled with a surprise run to the national title game by No. 12 seed Clemson.
|
Orange Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
50.0% |
29% |
|
|
40.0% |
20% |
|
|
6.7% |
26% |
|
|
3.3% |
11% |
|
|
0.0% |
8% |
|
|
0.0% |
6% |
Though Mock’s model puts the chances of Georgia, Penn State and Notre Dame advancing to the national title game all between 20 and 29 percent, our staff has mostly rallied around either Georgia or Notre Dame. Georgia got 15 votes to win the Orange Bowl to Notre Dame’s 12, while Penn State got just two and Boise State got one.
National championship
Going undefeated is difficult, but 17 of our 30 voters believe Oregon can run the table for a 15-0 record to become the first new national champion since Florida in 1996. It’s a big step up from the Ducks earning 10.7 percent of our preseason vote and 6.7 percent of the midseason vote.
Only four teams received votes to win the national title in the preseason: Ohio State (57.1 percent), Georgia (28.6 percent), Oregon (10.7 percent) and Alabama (3.6 percent). That number expanded to five by midseason: Texas (50 percent), Ohio State (36.7 percent), Oregon (6.7 percent), Georgia (3.3 percent) and Clemson (3.3 percent).
Now, the field of possible national champions has been narrowed to just 12, but six teams received at least one vote to win it all. Here is a case for each of those six teams:
Oregon: Every other team has a weakness that’s been exposed at some point. The teams that present the biggest threats to Oregon — Ohio State, Texas and Georgia — looked vulnerable the last time they took the field. Oregon’s defense showed some cracks against Penn State, but the Ducks have shown they can win a shootout if they have to. And Dillon Gabriel is the quarterback I’d want if I could pick one Playoff QB to lead a deep run. — Austin Meek
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Ohio State: Ohio State put together a horrific game plan against Michigan and it cost the Buckeyes dearly. I anticipate Ohio State will play much looser and put a premium on getting the nation’s best set of skill-position players into the right spots and maximizing potential mismatches to its advantage. — Scott Dochterman
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Texas: The Longhorns have the best and deepest roster. For all the attention on the quarterbacks and Texas’ offensive-minded head coach, it’s the defense that has carried the Longhorns: They allow just one point per drive, lowest in the FBS. And when the offense gets going, it makes Texas hard to beat. — Sam Khan Jr.
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Texas will go as far as Quinn Ewers takes it, for better or worse
Georgia: Georgia is talented, extremely battle tested (six games vs. top-16 teams), and, most importantly, will be at its healthiest all season — except for quarterback Carson Beck, of course. Also, the title game is in Atlanta. — Stewart Mandel
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A backup QB, of all people, comes to Georgia’s rescue — not detriment
Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s defense will get the job done. I love how this team responded to the loss to Northern Illinois, and that will carry over into the Playoff. The Irish were written off after that loss, and Marcus Freeman’s group showed an impressive determination to move past that. — Daniel Shirley
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Clemson: Quinn Ewers has not looked 100 percent since September, Arizona State has to fly all the way to Atlanta for its quarterfinal and the winner of the Rose Bowl may be running on fumes by the semis. Ten years of CFP history have taught me that if something good can happen for Clemson in late December, it usually will. Cade Klubnik has been just clutch enough, Bryant Wesco Jr. is on a Justyn Ross-like late-season trajectory and I can’t help but assume Dabo Swinney has the perfect mentality for tournament football. — Eric Single
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So what matchup will we see for the national championship on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
|
Oregon-Georgia |
10 |
|
Oregon-Notre Dame |
8 |
|
Ohio State-Georgia |
3 |
|
Oregon-Penn State |
2 |
|
Texas-Georgia |
2 |
|
Texas-Notre Dame |
2 |
|
Ohio State-Notre Dame |
2 |
|
Clemson-Boise State |
1 |
Stewart Mandel ranked all 36 possibilities after the bracket was revealed. Our 30 voters came up with eight matchups, with No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia the most common at one-third of the vote. Twenty-seven of the 30 had at least one of Oregon, Ohio State or Georgia, including two who picked Georgia meeting Texas for the third time this season.
Special shout out to our one voter who went for the chaos bracket choice of Clemson vs. Boise State.
(Photo of Jalon Walker and Dillon Gabriel: Tim Warner, Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)
Sports
ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum questions Trump’s college sports reform meeting as potential ‘circus’
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President Donald Trump will host a White House roundtable regarding college athletics reform later this week.
The panel is expected to include prominent coaches, college sports and pro sports league commissioners, and other professional athletes, according to OutKick.
The group will meet March 6 to examine solutions to key challenges, including NCAA authority; name, image and likeness issues (NIL); collective bargaining; and governance concerns.
President Donald Trump holds a football presented to him during a ceremony to present the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy to the US Naval Academy football team, the Navy Midshipmen, in the East Room of the White House on April 15, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
The meeting Friday will include big names like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Adam Silver and Tiger Woods. Trump has been adamant about “saving college sports,” even signing an executive order setting new restrictions on payments to college athletes back in July.
However, ESPN college analyst Paul Finebaum, who has previously hinted at a congressional run as a Republican, remains a bit skeptical.
“The easiest thing, guys, is just to say this is ridiculous,” Finebaum said to Greg McElroy and Cole Cubelic on WJOX. “And I read the other day, ‘Why is Nick Saban going?’ Why is anybody going? The bottom line is this. If something doesn’t happen very quickly, and I mean in the next short period of time, we’re talking about weeks, not years, then this thing could blow up.
“However it came about, I’m in favor of. The question now becomes, with some of the most powerful people in Washington in the same room, including the most powerful person in the country, can anything get done, or will it be a circus? Will it be just another show?”
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with former Alabama Crimson Tide football coach Nick Saban as Trump takes the stage to address graduating students at Coleman Coliseum at the University of Alabama on May 01, 2025 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Trump’s order prohibits athletes from receiving pay-to-play payments from third-party sources. However, the order did not impose any restrictions on NIL payments to college athletes by third-party sources.
A House vote on the SCORE Act (Student Compensation and Opportunity through Rights and Endorsements), which would regulate name, image, and likeness deals, was canceled shortly before it was set to be brought to the floor in December.
The White House endorsed the act, but three Republicans, Byron Donalds, Fla., Scott Perry, Pa., and Chip Roy, Texas, voted with Democrats not to bring the act to the floor. Democrats have largely opposed the bill, urging members of the House to vote “no.”
President Donald Trump looks on before the college football game between the US Army and Navy at the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland, on Dec. 13, 2025. (Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)
The SCORE Act would give the NCAA a limited antitrust exemption in hopes of protecting the NCAA from potential lawsuits over eligibility rules and would prohibit athletes from becoming employees of their schools. It prohibits schools from using student fees to fund NIL payments.
Fox News’ Chantz Martin and Ryan Gaydos contributed to this report.
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Sports
Lakers hope comeback win over Pelicans gives the team a timely boost
Lakers center Jaxson Hayes falls after Pelicans forward Zion Williamson commits an offensive foul as Lakers guard Austin Reaves watches at at Crypto.com Arena on Tuesday.
(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)
Matching the physicality of Pelicans forwards Zion Williamson and Saddiq Bey was on the top of the Lakers’ scouting report. But the task is easier said than done.
Reaves admitted to being “terrified” of stepping in front of a driving Williamson to draw a charge. The 6-foot-6, 284-pound Pelicans forward is just as physical as he is athletic, creating a fearsome combination for defenders. Healthy for the first time in two seasons, Williamson led the Pelicans with 24 points on 10-for-18 shooting.
“We haven’t seen somebody like that in a long time, right?” Smart said. “[With] his ability. But [being] willing to put your body there, take a charge, take an elbow to the face, box him out, go vertical, is definitely something that you got to be willing to do, and not everybody’s willing to do it. And that’s the difference in the game.”
Center Jaxson Hayes was up to the task. He absorbed a Williamson elbow in the fourth quarter and ended up in the front row of the stands holding his jaw. But the knock was worth it for the offensive foul that helped maintain the Lakers’ 14-0 run that quickly erased the Pelicans’ eight-point lead. The scoring streak started immediately after Hayes subbed back into the game with 7:20 remaining after he scored on his first possession, cutting to the basket for a dunk off an assist from Doncic.
Hayes had eight points, six rebounds and two blocks, playing nearly 23 minutes off the bench in his biggest workload as a substitute since Jan. 20 against Denver. After playing with Hayes in New Orleans during the center’s first two years in the league, Redick lauded the seven-year pro’s improvement. Hayes is sinking touch shots around the rim now. He has improved his decision making in the pocket. After getting benched for his defensive lapses last season, Hayes has impressed coaches with his consistent ability to stay vertical while protecting the rim. And he still brings the same trademark athleticism that made him the eighth overall pick in 2019.
“He consistently injects energy into the group when he runs the floor, blocks a shot, or he gets those dunks,” Redick said.
Sports
Eileen Gu reflects on decision to leave Team USA for China: ‘A lot of people just don’t understand’
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Eileen Gu released a statement on social media Monday, reflecting on her controversial decision to compete for Team China despite being born and raised in the U.S.
Gu’s statement tied the decision back to her passion for promoting women’s sports, and encouraging young girls to pursue sports.
“I gave my first speech on women in sports and title IX when I was 11 years old. I talked about being the only girl on my ski team, and, despite attending an all-girls’ school from Monday through Friday, becoming best friends with my teammates on the weekends through the common language of sport,” Gu wrote on Instagram.
Silver medalist Eileen Gu of China poses for photos after the awarding ceremony of the freestyle skiing women’s freeski big air event at the Milan-Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games in Livigno, Italy, Feb. 16, 2026. (Photo by Wang Peng/Xinhua via Getty Images) (Wang Peng/Xinhua via Getty Images)
“At the same time, I was made painfully aware of the lack of representation – at age 9, I felt that I was somehow representing all women every time I stepped in the terrain park. Landing tricks was about more than progression … it was about disproving the derisive implication of what it meant to ‘ski like a girl.’”
Gu went on to express gratitude for the one season in which she did compete for the U.S.
“When I was 15, I announced my decision to compete for China. At the time, I had spent one season on the US team, and had been lucky enough to meet my heroes in person. I am forever grateful for that season, and continue to maintain a close relationship with the team. I had spent every summer in China since I was 8 setting up summer camps on trampoline and dry slope for kids and adults, ranging from 7 to 47 years old, so I knew the industry was tiny. I felt like I knew everyone,” she added.
“Skiing for Team China meant the opportunity to uplift others through the universal culture of sport, and to introduce freeskiing to hundreds of millions of people who had never heard of it, especially with the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics around the corner.”
Gu’s statement concluded by acknowledging that certain people “don’t understand” her decision to compete for China over the U.S., while insisting the choice maximized the impact she would have.
“I can look back now, at 22, and tell 12 year old Eileen that there are now terrain parks full of little girls, who will never doubt their place in the sport. I can tell 15 year old me that there are now millions of girls who have started skiing since then, in China and worldwide,” Gu wrote.
“A lot of people won’t understand or believe that I made a decision to create the greatest amount of positive impact on the world stage that I could, at this age, given my interests and passions. Three golds and six medals later, I can confidently say was once a dream is now a reality.”
Gu has become a target for global criticism this Olympics for her decision to represent China while remaining silent on the country’s alleged human rights abuses.
In an interview with Time magazine, Gu was asked her thoughts on China’s alleged persecution of Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslim minorities in Xinjiang.
“I haven’t done the research. I don’t think it’s my business. I’m not going to make big claims on my social media,” Gu answered.
“I’m just more of a skeptic when it comes to data in general. … So, it’s not like I can read an article and be like, ‘Oh, well, this must be the truth.’ I need to have a ton of evidence. I need to maybe go to the place, maybe talk to 10 primary source people who are in a location and have experienced life there.
“Then I need to go see images. I need to listen to recordings. I need to think about how history affects it. Then I need to read books on how politics affects it. This is a lifelong search. It’s irresponsible to ask me to be the mouthpiece for any agenda.”
More controversy surrounding Gu erupted after The Wall Street Journal reported that Gu and another American-born athlete who now competes for China, were paid a combined $6.6 million by the Beijing Municipal Sports Bureau in 2025.
Gu is the highest-paid Winter Olympics athlete in the world, making an estimated $23 million in 2025 alone due to partnerships with Chinese companies, including the Bank of China and western companies.
Her alignment with China prompted criticism from many Americans this Olympics, including Vice President J.D. Vance.
“I certainly think that someone who grew up in the United States of America who benefited from our education system, from the freedoms and liberties that makes this country a great place, I would hope they want to compete with the United States of America,” Vance said in an interview on Fox News’ “The Story with Martha MacCallum.”
Later, when Gu was asked if she feels “like a bit of a punching bag for a certain strand of American politics at the moment,” she said she does.
“I do,” she said. “So many athletes compete for a different country. … People only have a problem with me doing it because they kind of lump China into this monolithic entity, and they just hate China. So, it’s not really about what they think it’s about.
“And, also, because I win. Like, if I wasn’t doing well, I think that they probably wouldn’t care as much, and that’s OK for me. People are entitled to their opinions.”
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Silver medalist Eileen Gu of China attends the awarding ceremony of the freestyle skiing women’s freeski big air event at the Milan-Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games in Livigno, Italy, Feb. 16, 2026. (Hongxiang/Xinhua via Getty Images)
Gu has claimed she was “physically assaulted” for the decision.
“The police were called. I’ve had death threats. I’ve had my dorm robbed,” Gu told The Athletic.
“I’ve gone through some things as a 22-year-old that I really think no one should ever have to endure, ever.”
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