Sports
College Football Playoff bracket predictions: The Athletic’s national championship picks
Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff? Six teams received at least one vote in our survey of 30 college football writers and editors at The Athletic, a big change from 10 years of postseason tournaments in which only four teams were in the field.
Though Oregon got a majority of the votes, plenty of variety emerged as our staff filled out their brackets ahead of the first round, which begins with Indiana at Notre Dame on Friday night. In fact, even No. 12 seed Clemson, which has three losses, got a national championship vote.
Here’s who we picked and how those predictions compare to Austin Mock’s projections model:
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College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Odds to advance for all 12 teams in the bracket
First round
| First round | Staff | Model |
|---|---|---|
|
63.3% |
71% |
|
|
36.7% |
29% |
|
|
90.0% |
72% |
|
|
10.0% |
28% |
|
|
90.0% |
65% |
|
|
10.0% |
35% |
|
|
73.3% |
67% |
|
|
26.7% |
33% |
Not surprisingly, the consensus of our 30 voters is chalk.
Per BetMGM, the better seed is favored by at least 7.5 points in every first-round game. Mock’s projections give each favorite at least a 65 percent chance to win, and our closest staff vote is Tennessee getting 11 votes to win at Ohio State in a matchup that undoubtedly presents challenges for the Buckeyes, especially after the way their offensive line played in the loss to Michigan.
Quarterfinals
| Rose Bowl | Staff | Model |
|---|---|---|
|
83.3% |
53% |
|
|
16.7% |
37% |
|
|
0.0% |
11% |
Oregon ended up with a tough draw despite being the nation’s only unbeaten team, as it will head to the Rose Bowl to face the winner of Ohio State-Tennessee. Mock’s model gives the Ducks just a 53 percent chance of getting through. Ohio State would be a rematch, as Oregon beat the Buckeyes 32-31 in a thriller in Eugene in October.
Still, 25 of our 30 voters picked Oregon to win the Rose Bowl, compared to just five for Ohio State and zero for Tennessee. Every person who picked the Buckeyes to beat Oregon also picked them to win the national title.
|
Peach Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
80.0% |
60% |
|
|
13.3% |
22% |
|
|
6.7% |
18% |
Arizona State is seeded fourth as the Big 12 champion but ranked 12th in the CFP Top 25 — nine spots behind Texas and four spots ahead of Clemson. Texas is the overwhelming favorite to both beat Clemson and get through the Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl to advance to an in-state semifinal in the Cotton Bowl, with only four people choosing Arizona State to win and two picking Clemson.
|
Sugar Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
53.3% |
52% |
|
|
46.7% |
34% |
|
|
0.0% |
14% |
Only three of 30 voters picked Indiana to beat Notre Dame, and none had the Hoosiers pulling off two upsets and also taking down Georgia. The staff is split on a potential Georgia-Notre Dame Sugar Bowl, however: Fourteen of the 27 people to pick Notre Dame to beat Indiana also have the Fighting Irish toppling the Bulldogs.
|
Fiesta Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
53.3% |
33% |
|
|
36.7% |
48% |
|
|
10.0% |
19% |
This is the least chalky part of the bracket. Most voters like Penn State to beat SMU at home, but our staff is fond of Boise State revitalizing its Cinderella status on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl. Historically, both the Nittany Lions (7-0) and Broncos (3-0) are unbeaten in the Fiesta Bowl. Here, only half of the 22 voters who picked Penn State to beat SMU also picked the Nittany Lions to beat Boise State. In total, Boise State gets 16 votes to win the Fiesta Bowl to Penn State’s 12 and SMU’s two.
Mock’s model disagrees, as it has Penn State beating both SMU and Boise State 48 percent of the time.
Semifinals
|
Cotton Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
66.7% |
32% |
|
|
16.7% |
25% |
|
|
13.3% |
29% |
|
|
3.3% |
5% |
|
|
0.0% |
5% |
|
|
0.0% |
4% |
Whoever emerges from the Oregon-Ohio State-Tennessee trio may end up with a tough draw in the semifinals in the Cotton Bowl against Texas, which would be playing close to home. Still, two-thirds of our staff likes Oregon to win the Cotton Bowl, while just five opted for Ohio State, four chose Texas and one rolled with a surprise run to the national title game by No. 12 seed Clemson.
|
Orange Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
50.0% |
29% |
|
|
40.0% |
20% |
|
|
6.7% |
26% |
|
|
3.3% |
11% |
|
|
0.0% |
8% |
|
|
0.0% |
6% |
Though Mock’s model puts the chances of Georgia, Penn State and Notre Dame advancing to the national title game all between 20 and 29 percent, our staff has mostly rallied around either Georgia or Notre Dame. Georgia got 15 votes to win the Orange Bowl to Notre Dame’s 12, while Penn State got just two and Boise State got one.
National championship
Going undefeated is difficult, but 17 of our 30 voters believe Oregon can run the table for a 15-0 record to become the first new national champion since Florida in 1996. It’s a big step up from the Ducks earning 10.7 percent of our preseason vote and 6.7 percent of the midseason vote.
Only four teams received votes to win the national title in the preseason: Ohio State (57.1 percent), Georgia (28.6 percent), Oregon (10.7 percent) and Alabama (3.6 percent). That number expanded to five by midseason: Texas (50 percent), Ohio State (36.7 percent), Oregon (6.7 percent), Georgia (3.3 percent) and Clemson (3.3 percent).
Now, the field of possible national champions has been narrowed to just 12, but six teams received at least one vote to win it all. Here is a case for each of those six teams:
Oregon: Every other team has a weakness that’s been exposed at some point. The teams that present the biggest threats to Oregon — Ohio State, Texas and Georgia — looked vulnerable the last time they took the field. Oregon’s defense showed some cracks against Penn State, but the Ducks have shown they can win a shootout if they have to. And Dillon Gabriel is the quarterback I’d want if I could pick one Playoff QB to lead a deep run. — Austin Meek
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Ohio State: Ohio State put together a horrific game plan against Michigan and it cost the Buckeyes dearly. I anticipate Ohio State will play much looser and put a premium on getting the nation’s best set of skill-position players into the right spots and maximizing potential mismatches to its advantage. — Scott Dochterman
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Texas: The Longhorns have the best and deepest roster. For all the attention on the quarterbacks and Texas’ offensive-minded head coach, it’s the defense that has carried the Longhorns: They allow just one point per drive, lowest in the FBS. And when the offense gets going, it makes Texas hard to beat. — Sam Khan Jr.
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Texas will go as far as Quinn Ewers takes it, for better or worse
Georgia: Georgia is talented, extremely battle tested (six games vs. top-16 teams), and, most importantly, will be at its healthiest all season — except for quarterback Carson Beck, of course. Also, the title game is in Atlanta. — Stewart Mandel
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A backup QB, of all people, comes to Georgia’s rescue — not detriment
Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s defense will get the job done. I love how this team responded to the loss to Northern Illinois, and that will carry over into the Playoff. The Irish were written off after that loss, and Marcus Freeman’s group showed an impressive determination to move past that. — Daniel Shirley
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Clemson: Quinn Ewers has not looked 100 percent since September, Arizona State has to fly all the way to Atlanta for its quarterfinal and the winner of the Rose Bowl may be running on fumes by the semis. Ten years of CFP history have taught me that if something good can happen for Clemson in late December, it usually will. Cade Klubnik has been just clutch enough, Bryant Wesco Jr. is on a Justyn Ross-like late-season trajectory and I can’t help but assume Dabo Swinney has the perfect mentality for tournament football. — Eric Single
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So what matchup will we see for the national championship on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
|
Oregon-Georgia |
10 |
|
Oregon-Notre Dame |
8 |
|
Ohio State-Georgia |
3 |
|
Oregon-Penn State |
2 |
|
Texas-Georgia |
2 |
|
Texas-Notre Dame |
2 |
|
Ohio State-Notre Dame |
2 |
|
Clemson-Boise State |
1 |
Stewart Mandel ranked all 36 possibilities after the bracket was revealed. Our 30 voters came up with eight matchups, with No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia the most common at one-third of the vote. Twenty-seven of the 30 had at least one of Oregon, Ohio State or Georgia, including two who picked Georgia meeting Texas for the third time this season.
Special shout out to our one voter who went for the chaos bracket choice of Clemson vs. Boise State.
(Photo of Jalon Walker and Dillon Gabriel: Tim Warner, Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)
Sports
Rams star Puka Nacua fined by NFL after renewed referee criticism and close loss to Seahawks
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Los Angeles Rams star wide receiver Puka Nacua’s tumultuous Thursday began with an apology and ended with more controversial remarks.
In between, he had a career-best performance.
After catching 12 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Thursday’s overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Nacua once again expressed his frustration with how NFL referees handled the game.
Nacua previously suggested game officials shared similarities to attorneys. The remarks came after the third-year wideout claimed some referees throw flags during games to ramp up their camera time.
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints at SoFi Stadium. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images)
After the Seahawks 38-37 win propelled Seattle to the top spot in the NFC standings, Nacua took a veiled shot at the game’s officials.
“Can you say i was wrong. Appreciate you stripes for your contribution. Lol,” he wrote on X.
The Pro Bowler added that his statement on X was made in “a moment of frustration after a tough, intense game like that.”
RAMS STAR PUKA NACUA ACCUSES REFS OF MAKING UP CALLS TO GET ON TV: ‘THE WORST’
“It was just a lack of awareness and just some frustration,” Nacua said. “I know there were moments where I feel like, ‘Man, you watch the other games and you think of the calls that some guys get and you wish you could get some of those.’ But that’s just how football has played, and I’ll do my job in order to work my technique to make sure that there’s not an issue with the call.”
But, this time, Nacua’s criticism resulted in a hefty fine. The league issued a $25,000 penalty, according to NFL Network.
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) runs with the ball during the second half against the Seattle Seahawks Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, in Seattle. (AP Photo/John Froschauer)
Nacua had expressed aggravation on social media just days after the 24-year-old asserted during a livestream appearance with internet personalities Adin Ross and N3on that “the refs are the worst.”
“Some of the rules aren’t … these guys want to be … these guys are lawyers. They want to be on TV too,” Nacua said, per ESPN. “You don’t think he’s texting his friends in the group chat like, ‘Yo, you guys just saw me on “Sunday Night Football.” That wasn’t P.I., but I called it.’”
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) scores a touchdown during the second half against the Seattle Seahawks Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, in Seattle. (AP Photo/John Froschauer)
On Thursday, reporters asked Nacua if he wanted to clarify his stance on the suggestion referees actively seek being in front of cameras during games.
“No, I don’t,” he replied.
Also on Thursday, Nacua apologized for performing a gesture that plays upon antisemitic tropes.
“I had no idea this act was antisemitic in nature and perpetuated harmful stereotypes against Jewish people,” the receiver said in an Instagram post. “I deeply apologize to anyone who was offended by my actions as I do not stand for any form of racism, bigotry or hate of another group of people.”
Rams coach Sean McVay dismissed the idea that all the off-field chatter surrounding Nacua was a distraction leading up to Los Angeles’ clash with its NFC West division rival.
“It wasn’t a distraction at all,” McVay said. “Did you think his play showed he was distracted? I didn’t think so either. He went off today.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Sports
Sean McVay: Seahawks’ two-point play will be a competition committee talking point
Sean McVay serves on the NFL’s competition committee.
So it’s a given that the next time the group convenes, the Rams coach will have a specific situation and rule to discuss.
Particularly, the one that occurred on a two-point conversion attempt during the Rams’ 38-37 defeat by the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night at Lumen Field in Seattle.
After the Seahawks scored a fourth-quarter touchdown that pulled them to within 30-28, Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold attempted what was at first ruled a forward pass that was tipped by Rams linebacker Jared Verse before falling incomplete.
But as the teams lined up for the ensuing kickoff, the referee announced that upon review it had been ruled a backward pass, so the play remained alive until the ball was picked up by Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet in the end zone, making it a successful conversion that tied the score.
“When situations and circumstances arise like that, those will be things that I guarantee you will be addressed and conversed over,” McVay said Friday during a videoconference with reporters.
During his postgame news conference on Thursday, McVay said that he did not receive clarity about the call during the game.
But he did by Friday.
“It’s a technicality issue,” McVay said. “What they said is, ‘You can’t advance a fumble under two minutes on two-point plays or on fourth downs.’ That’s the thing.
“Because they said it was a backwards pass, that’s how it was able to be advanced.”
Rams defensive lineman Kobie Turner said after the game that he was “definitely shook” by the changed call. But Rams players have meetings about being “situational masters” who always end up with the ball, he said.
“I should have been there to pick up the ball,” Turner said. “But I saw Verse hit it, then I saw [safety] Kam [Curl] almost catch a pick and I was like, ‘Welp, he almost caught it.’ And then I went to go and celebrate Verse.
“That’s definitely going to be one of those clips on situational masters.”
On Friday, McVay said that he had “total appreciation” and “empathy” for officials who are put in difficult spots, but “I do not believe that anybody would be in disagreement that those are not the plays we want in our game.”
He added: “I can’t imagine anybody thinks that plays like that should be counted as conversions. I know I would feel that way even if I was a beneficiary and the roles were flipped and that benefited us last night.
“I can honestly say that.”
Etc.
Rams guard Kevin Dotson suffered an ankle sprain during the game, and also was on the receiving end of a stomp by Seahawks linebacker Derick Hall, who was suspended by the NFL for a game because of his actions. “I think he was injured before,” McVay said, “but it certainly didn’t help matters and it’s definitely not stuff we want in our game.” Dotson is doubtful for the Rams’ Dec. 29 game against the Atlanta Falcons, McVay said. Justin Dedich would start in his place. Receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) also “most likely” will not be available against the Falcons, he said. … Receiver Puka Nacua, who was fined $25,000 by the NFL for critical comments of officials he made during a livestream earlier in the week, will not face additional discipline by the team, McVay said. After the game, Nacua posted to X about the officials. “I talked with him right afterwards,” McVay said. “He is a young guy that is continuing to learn the importance of his platform. … What I want to continue to educate him on is there are platforms that he’s got an incredible influence on. There’s a time to be able to have people to vent to. That is not the space to do that. He knows that and I feel very confident that that will not be an issue for us moving forward.”
Sports
Ed Orgeron on who should be out of College Football Playoff, Lane Kiffin’s move to LSU and his coaching plans
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The College Football Playoff begins Friday, and emotions are running high for several fan bases.
Notre Dame was ranked 10th in the penultimate CFP rankings but missed the playoffs to both Alabama, which lost a third game, and Miami, which were ranked lower going into championship weekend but beat Notre Dame during the season, which apparently took precedence.
Ed Orgeron did not have to worry about his playoff status while he was coaching LSU to a title amid a perfect season in 2019, but he has an idea of who should be in and out this year.
LSU coach Ed Orgeron runs off the field with his team before an NCAA college football game against Kentucky in Lexington, Kentucky, Saturday, Oct. 9, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Clubb)
“I don’t think a team with three losses ought to be playing for the national championship. Notre Dame should have got in ahead of Alabama,” Orgeron told Fox News Digital in a recent interview.
Bama getting in prompted calls of bias and/or collusion, considering the playoff is broadcast on ESPN and ABC, the same network that the SEC has a major media rights deal with.
“The SEC was dominant. But now, the Big Ten, Big 12 are catching up. They’ve had the national champ a couple of years now. I don’t know what’s happened with the SEC and bias, all that stuff. Is there a chance that they have it? I’m not going to get into that. But I do know this — they’re very strong,” Orgeron added.
The SEC figures to remain strong, as Lane Kiffin went from Ole Miss to Orgeron’s former LSU in a controversial move. Orgeron, though, said Kiffin, his former colleague at Tennessee and USC, made the right move, given he hardly had a choice.
Mississippi Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin (left) and LSU Tigers head coach Ed Orgeron (right) shake hands after a game at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. (Petre Thomas/USA TODAY Sports)
ED ORGERON GIVES ADVICE TO SHERRONE MOORE AFTER SAGA THAT LEFT HIM FIRED, ARRESTED
“Look, the timing of it, when he did it, that’s his choice. But he had to do it at that time to get the job he wanted. The calendar is wrong in college football. I wish they had the rule like the NFL, that you cannot talk to a coach until their season is over,” Orgeron said.
As for advice to get LSU back to the promised land?
“Keep on doing what you’re doing. He knows what he’s doing. Recruit, evaluate like he’s doing. He’s the king of the transfer portal. He’ll be able to dominate the SEC like he’s been doing. Keep on doing what you’re doing.”
Orgeron last coached in 2021, but his career is certainly not over. In fact, he expects to be somewhere soon, potentially even facing Kiffin.
Then-LSU Tigers head coach Ed Orgeron talks with quarterback Joe Burrow after a victory against the Clemson Tigers in the College Football Playoff national championship game at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. (Matthew Emmons/USA TODAY Sports)
“We’ve been in touch with people. I would take a head coaching job, doesn’t have to be a head coaching job. I’ll take a D-line coach or a recruiting coordinator, but the right situation hasn’t been coming up. I’m in a good position where I could take a job, I don’t have to take a job, but if the right situation comes up, I’m definitely taking it and going to coach. I do believe within the next month something may open, and I’ll be coaching again.”
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