Sports
College Football Playoff bracket predictions: The Athletic’s national championship picks
Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff? Six teams received at least one vote in our survey of 30 college football writers and editors at The Athletic, a big change from 10 years of postseason tournaments in which only four teams were in the field.
Though Oregon got a majority of the votes, plenty of variety emerged as our staff filled out their brackets ahead of the first round, which begins with Indiana at Notre Dame on Friday night. In fact, even No. 12 seed Clemson, which has three losses, got a national championship vote.
Here’s who we picked and how those predictions compare to Austin Mock’s projections model:
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Odds to advance for all 12 teams in the bracket
First round
| First round | Staff | Model |
|---|---|---|
|
63.3% |
71% |
|
|
36.7% |
29% |
|
|
90.0% |
72% |
|
|
10.0% |
28% |
|
|
90.0% |
65% |
|
|
10.0% |
35% |
|
|
73.3% |
67% |
|
|
26.7% |
33% |
Not surprisingly, the consensus of our 30 voters is chalk.
Per BetMGM, the better seed is favored by at least 7.5 points in every first-round game. Mock’s projections give each favorite at least a 65 percent chance to win, and our closest staff vote is Tennessee getting 11 votes to win at Ohio State in a matchup that undoubtedly presents challenges for the Buckeyes, especially after the way their offensive line played in the loss to Michigan.
Quarterfinals
| Rose Bowl | Staff | Model |
|---|---|---|
|
83.3% |
53% |
|
|
16.7% |
37% |
|
|
0.0% |
11% |
Oregon ended up with a tough draw despite being the nation’s only unbeaten team, as it will head to the Rose Bowl to face the winner of Ohio State-Tennessee. Mock’s model gives the Ducks just a 53 percent chance of getting through. Ohio State would be a rematch, as Oregon beat the Buckeyes 32-31 in a thriller in Eugene in October.
Still, 25 of our 30 voters picked Oregon to win the Rose Bowl, compared to just five for Ohio State and zero for Tennessee. Every person who picked the Buckeyes to beat Oregon also picked them to win the national title.
|
Peach Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
80.0% |
60% |
|
|
13.3% |
22% |
|
|
6.7% |
18% |
Arizona State is seeded fourth as the Big 12 champion but ranked 12th in the CFP Top 25 — nine spots behind Texas and four spots ahead of Clemson. Texas is the overwhelming favorite to both beat Clemson and get through the Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl to advance to an in-state semifinal in the Cotton Bowl, with only four people choosing Arizona State to win and two picking Clemson.
|
Sugar Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
53.3% |
52% |
|
|
46.7% |
34% |
|
|
0.0% |
14% |
Only three of 30 voters picked Indiana to beat Notre Dame, and none had the Hoosiers pulling off two upsets and also taking down Georgia. The staff is split on a potential Georgia-Notre Dame Sugar Bowl, however: Fourteen of the 27 people to pick Notre Dame to beat Indiana also have the Fighting Irish toppling the Bulldogs.
|
Fiesta Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
53.3% |
33% |
|
|
36.7% |
48% |
|
|
10.0% |
19% |
This is the least chalky part of the bracket. Most voters like Penn State to beat SMU at home, but our staff is fond of Boise State revitalizing its Cinderella status on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl. Historically, both the Nittany Lions (7-0) and Broncos (3-0) are unbeaten in the Fiesta Bowl. Here, only half of the 22 voters who picked Penn State to beat SMU also picked the Nittany Lions to beat Boise State. In total, Boise State gets 16 votes to win the Fiesta Bowl to Penn State’s 12 and SMU’s two.
Mock’s model disagrees, as it has Penn State beating both SMU and Boise State 48 percent of the time.
Semifinals
|
Cotton Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
66.7% |
32% |
|
|
16.7% |
25% |
|
|
13.3% |
29% |
|
|
3.3% |
5% |
|
|
0.0% |
5% |
|
|
0.0% |
4% |
Whoever emerges from the Oregon-Ohio State-Tennessee trio may end up with a tough draw in the semifinals in the Cotton Bowl against Texas, which would be playing close to home. Still, two-thirds of our staff likes Oregon to win the Cotton Bowl, while just five opted for Ohio State, four chose Texas and one rolled with a surprise run to the national title game by No. 12 seed Clemson.
|
Orange Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
50.0% |
29% |
|
|
40.0% |
20% |
|
|
6.7% |
26% |
|
|
3.3% |
11% |
|
|
0.0% |
8% |
|
|
0.0% |
6% |
Though Mock’s model puts the chances of Georgia, Penn State and Notre Dame advancing to the national title game all between 20 and 29 percent, our staff has mostly rallied around either Georgia or Notre Dame. Georgia got 15 votes to win the Orange Bowl to Notre Dame’s 12, while Penn State got just two and Boise State got one.
National championship
Going undefeated is difficult, but 17 of our 30 voters believe Oregon can run the table for a 15-0 record to become the first new national champion since Florida in 1996. It’s a big step up from the Ducks earning 10.7 percent of our preseason vote and 6.7 percent of the midseason vote.
Only four teams received votes to win the national title in the preseason: Ohio State (57.1 percent), Georgia (28.6 percent), Oregon (10.7 percent) and Alabama (3.6 percent). That number expanded to five by midseason: Texas (50 percent), Ohio State (36.7 percent), Oregon (6.7 percent), Georgia (3.3 percent) and Clemson (3.3 percent).
Now, the field of possible national champions has been narrowed to just 12, but six teams received at least one vote to win it all. Here is a case for each of those six teams:
Oregon: Every other team has a weakness that’s been exposed at some point. The teams that present the biggest threats to Oregon — Ohio State, Texas and Georgia — looked vulnerable the last time they took the field. Oregon’s defense showed some cracks against Penn State, but the Ducks have shown they can win a shootout if they have to. And Dillon Gabriel is the quarterback I’d want if I could pick one Playoff QB to lead a deep run. — Austin Meek
GO DEEPER
Oregon goes unbeaten (with swagger) in first Big Ten season. And the Ducks aren’t finished
Ohio State: Ohio State put together a horrific game plan against Michigan and it cost the Buckeyes dearly. I anticipate Ohio State will play much looser and put a premium on getting the nation’s best set of skill-position players into the right spots and maximizing potential mismatches to its advantage. — Scott Dochterman
GO DEEPER
Will Howard realizes his final chapter at Ohio State has yet to be written
Texas: The Longhorns have the best and deepest roster. For all the attention on the quarterbacks and Texas’ offensive-minded head coach, it’s the defense that has carried the Longhorns: They allow just one point per drive, lowest in the FBS. And when the offense gets going, it makes Texas hard to beat. — Sam Khan Jr.
GO DEEPER
Texas will go as far as Quinn Ewers takes it, for better or worse
Georgia: Georgia is talented, extremely battle tested (six games vs. top-16 teams), and, most importantly, will be at its healthiest all season — except for quarterback Carson Beck, of course. Also, the title game is in Atlanta. — Stewart Mandel
GO DEEPER
A backup QB, of all people, comes to Georgia’s rescue — not detriment
Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s defense will get the job done. I love how this team responded to the loss to Northern Illinois, and that will carry over into the Playoff. The Irish were written off after that loss, and Marcus Freeman’s group showed an impressive determination to move past that. — Daniel Shirley
GO DEEPER
How Notre Dame saved its Playoff expectations after the season’s worst loss
Clemson: Quinn Ewers has not looked 100 percent since September, Arizona State has to fly all the way to Atlanta for its quarterfinal and the winner of the Rose Bowl may be running on fumes by the semis. Ten years of CFP history have taught me that if something good can happen for Clemson in late December, it usually will. Cade Klubnik has been just clutch enough, Bryant Wesco Jr. is on a Justyn Ross-like late-season trajectory and I can’t help but assume Dabo Swinney has the perfect mentality for tournament football. — Eric Single
GO DEEPER
Dabo Swinney guides Clemson back to the Playoff — fool’s gold or proof of concept?
So what matchup will we see for the national championship on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
|
Oregon-Georgia |
10 |
|
Oregon-Notre Dame |
8 |
|
Ohio State-Georgia |
3 |
|
Oregon-Penn State |
2 |
|
Texas-Georgia |
2 |
|
Texas-Notre Dame |
2 |
|
Ohio State-Notre Dame |
2 |
|
Clemson-Boise State |
1 |
Stewart Mandel ranked all 36 possibilities after the bracket was revealed. Our 30 voters came up with eight matchups, with No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia the most common at one-third of the vote. Twenty-seven of the 30 had at least one of Oregon, Ohio State or Georgia, including two who picked Georgia meeting Texas for the third time this season.
Special shout out to our one voter who went for the chaos bracket choice of Clemson vs. Boise State.
(Photo of Jalon Walker and Dillon Gabriel: Tim Warner, Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)
Sports
Bengals team flight delayed more than 5 hours ahead of AFC North battle vs Ravens
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
The Cincinnati Bengals didn’t have a great start to their Thanksgiving Day.
The team’s flight on Wednesday night from Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport was scheduled for 5 p.m. ET, but they weren’t able to get into the air for their trip to Baltimore until 10:32 p.m. ET, according to FlightAware.
As a result, the Bengals, who play their AFC North rival Ravens on Thanksgiving night, didn’t get to their hotel until after midnight.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE SPORTS COVERAGE ON FOXNEWS.COM
Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals looks on prior to an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paycor Stadium on Oct. 16, 2025, in Cincinnati. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
The team was supposed to land in Baltimore at 6:19 p.m. ET, but they technically landed on Thanksgiving, arriving at Baltimore/Washington International Airport at 12:03 a.m.
WLWT in Cincinnati also reported the Bengals had to switch planes, though there was no word on why they were forced to change.
JOE BURROW BRUSHES OFF INJURY CONCERNS RETURNING FOR 3-8 BENGALS AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING SHOWDOWN WITH RAVENS
It wasn’t an ideal situation for the Bengals; however, it could’ve been worse if the flight had been delayed any later. If the game were played earlier in the day, it certainly would have been more of an issue.
The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions had the first game on Thanksgiving Day, while the Dallas Cowboys hosted the Kansas City Chiefs for the 4:25 p.m. ET start.
While the Bengals are 3-8, this is a massive game for the franchise as they welcome back starting quarterback Joe Burrow, who recovered from toe surgery after an injury in Week 2 this season.
Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals looks to pass during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Paycor Stadium on Sept. 14, 2025, in Cincinnati. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Burrow didn’t play this past Sunday despite being a full practice participant, but head coach Zac Taylor made the call with the short week ahead and the Thursday night matchup in mind.
Cincinnati has lost its last four games. However, Burrow hasn’t lost a game since December 2024, going 7-0 in his last seven starts.
Burrow also had qualms about playing the Ravens for the fourth straight year in prime time on the road.
“Maybe we can get one of those in Cincinnati next year, please,” Burrow said back in May.
Bundle FOX One and FOX Nation to stream the entire FOX Nation library, plus live FOX News, Sports, and Entertainment at our lowest price of the year. The offer ends on Jan. 4, 2026. (Fox One; Fox Nation)
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are winners of their last five games after starting the season 1-5 in shocking fashion. They share the AFC North lead with the Pittsburgh Steelers, making this another crucial game for the franchise’s playoff hopes.
Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.
Sports
Will Jayden Maiava and Husan Longstreet remain USC’s top quarterbacks?
During each of his last two Decembers at USC, Lincoln Riley faced a critical decision at quarterback: Pursue a new passer in the portal or trust the one who’s next in line?
In each case, Riley has opted to keep the known quantity. But as his fourth regular season at USC comes to a close Saturday against UCLA, the coach could face a more complicated conundrum at the position this offseason.
Run it back with Jayden Maiava, who statistically has been one of the more accomplished passers in college football this season? Or turn the page to electric five-star freshman Husan Longstreet, who might not be willing to wait much longer for his shot as USC’s starting quarterback?
It’s a question that has confounded many college football coaches during the transfer portal era, as the notion of a top quarterback prospect patiently waiting his turn to be named a starter has become increasingly rare. Of the top dozen quarterbacks in the class of 2024, six have already transferred. From 2023, it’s seven of the top 12. From 2022, it’s eight. And of those who do stay, only a handful were still waiting to start as sophomores.
USC quarterback Jayden Maiava looks for an open receiver during a win over Michigan at the Coliseum on Oct. 11.
(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)
It’s not clear yet if that’ll be the case with Longstreet. But this week, Riley made a clear plea for the young passer’s patience when asked about the challenge of convincing a top prospect to stick around in a reserve role.
“For any player, especially a quarterback, I don’t know if this would be the right time to leave this place,” Riley said. “This thing is getting pretty good. And I think a lot of people recognize that, both in what we have now and what we’re bringing in, where this thing is going.”
Speaking to Longstreet’s situation, Riley pointed to his track record with quarterbacks who waited their turn.
“Other than Jalen Hurts, we haven’t had any quarterback that’s come in and was the guy right away,” Riley said. “Every one of them, all the guys that did all the things, they all had that time. And if you ask them now, maybe then they wanted to be playing of course, the competitor in them. But if you ask them now, they’re all damn happy they had time and it made a big difference. Because when it became their time, they were ready.”
USC quarterback Husan Longstreet scores a touchdown against the Missouri State at the Coliseum on Aug. 30.
(Luke Hales/Getty Images)
Maiava, of course, has been more than just a mere caretaker. After all, he leads the Big Ten in passing yards per game this season (3,174), while also leading USC in rushing touchdowns (6). With Maiava and his cannon arm at the helm, USC’s offense has returned to its right place as one of college football’s most explosive outfits, producing 51 plays of 20-plus yards this season, fourth-most in the nation.
On paper, there’s no reason to think Riley would be eager to replace Maiava, who has rejuvenated both the read-option game and the downfield aspect of his offense since taking over for Miller Moss last season. But the conversation about USC’s future at the position was complicated by the second half of the season, during which Maiava stumbled against stiffer competition.
During the Trojans’ first six games, Maiava appeared to have taken a major step forward. He was completing 72% of his passes, up 12% from the previous year. He was averaging an eye-popping 11 yards per attempt, two yards better than Caleb Williams in his Heisman-winning season. Plus, after vowing to cut down on turnovers, Maiava had only thrown two interceptions over those six games, showcasing a much better grasp of the game and Riley’s offense.
“A very high percentage of our plays, he knows what to do and where to go with the ball,” Riley said. “He’s very comfortable with what we’re doing. Very focused, confident on his reads. That’s why he’s been so efficient all year.”
The strong start garnered serious NFL interest. Pro Football Focus just recently ranked Maiava as the No. 5 draft-eligible quarterback in the upcoming draft. But his second half of the season has begged some questions — not just about whether Maiava is ready to declare for the draft, but whether he’s the right quarterback for Riley to prioritize heading into next season.
Up against three of the nation’s top 11 defenses in pass yards allowed — Oregon, Iowa and Nebraska — Maiava keeps up the same consistency from the season’s first half. His completion rate, through his last five outings, sits just above 59% — lower than it was during his 2024 stint as USC’s starter. Maiava’s turnovers have also tripled during that stretch (6), while he’s averaging more than three yards fewer per attempt (7.64)
Riley said Tuesday that Maiava’s inconsistencies of late were due to the caliber of defenses he’s faced — and circumstances that forced USC’s offense to be aggressive downfield.
“We’ve continued to score points and win games and have one of the best offenses in the country, and he’s been a big part of that,” Riley said. “He’s still learning. He can play better. But he’s continuing to give us chances to win every week.”
USC quarterback Jayden Maiava gestures to teammates during a win over Iowa on Nov. 15.
(Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)
He’ll also have the chance in the coming weeks to consider if he wants to enter the NFL draft.
In the meantime, Longstreet will continue to watch dutifully as the No. 2 quarterback. He’s appeared in four games, completing 13 of 15 passes, on his way to a redshirt season. That time waiting, Riley said, has been essential.
“This has been such a valuable year for him — to serve as a backup quarterback, to learn, to just kind of be there to see all of these things transpire,” Riley said. “These are just things you can’t simulate. It gives you an opportunity to watch these different situations, how they happen, be able to go back, like, ‘What would you do? How would you handle it?’
“The hope is maybe you learn, ‘All right, I wasn’t the one playing, but when I am, I know exactly what I need to do or what I don’t need to do.’ It might be about on the field. It might be about leadership. It might be about a number of different things.”
USC quarterback Husan Longstreet is pushed out of bounds by Illinois’ Miles Scott at Memorial Stadium on Sept. 27 in Champaign, Ill.
(Justin Casterline / Getty Images)
When Longstreet will get a chance to put that knowledge to use remains to be seen. But his teammates at USC have been impressed so far by what they’ve seen from the freshman.
“Husan is a machine, for real,” said freshman Tanook Hines. “He throwing that thing about 80 [yards], then turn around and run 4.3, 4.2.”
Others were even more encouraging of the quarterback they hope stays a part of USC’s plans.
“He’s destined for greatness,” guard Kaylon Miller said of Longstreet. “Every single time I see him out there, I tell him, keep doing your thing. You keep going on the route you are right now, you’re going to be great.”
Sports
Toronto adds Dylan Cease, reinforcing pitching rotation after World Series loss: reports
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
After coming up short in a Game 7 World Series thriller, the Toronto Blue Jays wasted little time making a free agency splash.
According to multiple reports, free agent pitcher Dylan Cease agreed to a $210 million, seven-year contract. Cease has been a reliable arm, making at least 32 starts in each of the last five MLB seasons.
The right-hander posted a 4.55 ERA with the San Diego Padres. He recorded 215 strikeouts and walked 71 batters in 168 innings.
Dylan Cease of the San Diego Padres pitches against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park July 25, 2024, in Washington, D.C. (Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)
Cease spent his first five years with the Chicago White Sox, including a 2022 season in which he went 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA despite leading the majors in walks. He finished second in AL Cy Young Award balloting.
PIRATES STAR PAUL SKENES RECEIVES RECORD PAYDAY AFTER WINNING CY YOUNG AWARD AMID TRADE RUMORS
After one more year in Chicago, he was traded to San Diego in March 2024 and went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA that season, finishing fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting.
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease celebrates after the third out during the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers Sept. 24, 2025, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull, File)
Cease was one of the top free-agent pitchers on the market this offseason and he joins a Blue Jays team that won the American East division this year.
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease winds up to throw against the Washington Nationals July 25, 2024, in Washington, D.C. (AP Photo/John McDonnell)
Toronto’s rotation already features Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and José Berríos. Chris Bassitt and 41-year-old Max Scherzer, the three-time Cy Young Award winner who started Game 7 of the World Series, became free agents this month.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to The Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.
-
World1 week agoFrance and Germany support simplification push for digital rules
-
Science6 days agoWashington state resident dies of new H5N5 form of bird flu
-
News1 week agoHow Every House Member Voted to Release the Epstein Files
-
Politics1 week agoLawmakers warned PennDOT of illegal immigrant-CDL crisis before bust; GOP demands answers from Shapiro
-
World1 week agoPoland to close last Russian consulate over ‘unprecedented act of sabotage’
-
News1 week agoAnalysis: Is Trump a lame duck now? | CNN Politics
-
Business1 week ago
Amazon’s Zoox offers free robotaxi rides in San Francisco
-
Technology1 week agoThe best early Black Friday deals we’ve found so far on laptops, TVs, and more