West Virginia (5-5, 4-3) will close out the home portion of their 2024 campaign next Saturday when they play host to the UCF Knights (4-6, 2-5).

Although the Mountaineers appear to be the better team on paper, the sportsbooks don’t like their chances in this matchup with one of the newer members of the Big 12.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, UCF is currently a 2.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 64.5.

I always say they don’t build those massive, fancy buildings in the desert for nothing. However, I struggle to see how the Mountaineers are the underdog in this game. As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if this eventually flips to WVU as the favorite, or at least down to a pick’em.

The Knights are going to rely on its ground game, and that’s the one thing the Mountaineers have done well all year on the defensive side of the ball. UCF doesn’t throw the ball a whole lot, and I expect that even against a soft pass defense, Gus Malzahn will be stubborn and rely on the ground game to get the job done.

Plus, it’s also senior day for West Virginia. The season has not gone the way anyone had anticipated it, but they still have a chance to end the year on a strong note by winning these final two games and taking whichever bowl game they get invited to play in.

Quarterback Garrett Greene has gone through on-field struggles and injuries all year long, causing the fanbase to want redshirt sophomore Nicco Marchiol to take over the reins of the offense, who has won each of his two starts. Even if West Virginia’s last two games were on the road, I don’t believe Neal Brown would make a switch. He seems content with riding out the rest of the season with his senior.

With it being Greene’s final game, you’d have to think he’s going to go out a winner. Whether he actually does or not remains to be seen, but when you stack these two teams side by side and look at the situation, I think it favors the Mountaineers.

West Virginia is 4-6 against the spread this season.

The total has gone OVER in four of West Virginia’s last five games.

The Mountaineers are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games played at home.

Eight of West Virginia’s last 10 Big 12 Conference game have gone OVER the total.

The total has gone OVER in each of West Virginia’s last five games played in the month of November.

UCF is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games played.

The total has gone OVER in eight of UCF’s last ten games.

The Knights have won nine of their last twelve games played in the month of November.

UCF has lost four of its last five games played on the road.

UCF has lost six of its last seven games straight up.

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West Virginia won’t have wide receiver Traylon Ray for the remainder of the season.

Ray was injured with 5:41 remaining in the third quarter against Baylor and he was carted off the field with a leg injury after hauling in 3 catches for 22 yards and a touchdown. The sophomore entered the game as the leading receiver for the Mountaineers with 25 catches for 404 yards and 3 scores.

The injury will cost him the final two regular season games and a potential bowl match up.

“Yeah, he won’t be back this year. Yeah, he will not be back. It’s bad. He’ll recover. He’ll be fine, but he won’t play this year,” head coach Neal Brown said.

The injury is one that will affect West Virginia in a variety of ways as Ray was one of the most reliable pass catchers on the roster and was especially adept at winning against man coverage. It also made things difficult in the moment because of the nature of how it unfolded.

“It not only hurt us because he was winning a lot, but it hurt us emotionally. We had some guys that really struggled with that because it was visible on the field what the injury was and our skill groups really close and that emotionally that was tough to overcome,” Brown said.

That was evident when the entire offense came over to the cart to see Ray.

It was something similar to what the Mountaineers dealt with after Trey Lathan was injured against TCU last season but the game continued and the players had to regroup quickly.

“I think the guys did a pretty good job of kind of flushing that and then, you know, just kind of trying to go make plays and do their jobs for No. 7,” quarterback Garrett Greene said.

The Mountaineers have two games remaining and will need other pass catchers to step in his absence. That will likely come in the form of transfer wide receiver Justin Robinson who has played well at times on top of potentially welcoming back another transfer in Jaden Bray who has missed time due to injury.

Both of those players are going to be asked to step into a bigger role beside Hudson Clement.

“I think that’s the one that really has to step up. I hope we get Jaden Bray back this week. If we can get him back that’ll help,” Brown said.

Following Saturday evening’s loss to Baylor, the West Virginia Mountaineers are virtually out of the Big 12 Conference title race.

They’re still mathematically alive, thanks to Kansas pulling off yet another upset, taking down undefeated BYU. That being said, they need approximately 87 things to go their way, in addition to winning the final two games of the year against UCF and Texas Tech, to punch a ticket to Dallas.

*Whispers* It’s not happening.

It’s year six of this regime, and they’re struggling to make it to win six. Being content with just getting bowl-eligible this deep into a tenure is not acceptable. Coaches can have a down year every now and then, even six years in, but you have to have shown something in the past that shows you’re capable of winning. This staff has yet to do that.

I went back and looked at last year’s schedule a little deeper and found that the six teams that West Virginia beat had a combined Big 12 record of 16-38. The four league wins they have this year have a combined record of 7-19. Only one of those ten wins (Texas Tech last year) came against a team with a winning record in Big 12 play. Teams with a pulse, they can’t beat. That’s a problem.

I’m not here to put Neal Brown on blast, although it may seem that way. All I’m saying is something has got to change. This program, this state, deserves better. If it’s continuing on with Neal Brown, then there needs to be new faces that populate the coaching staff, better decisions made in the transfer portal, and better scouting of high school prospects. NIL is a big piece of this, too, and they must find a way to be more competitive in that space.

I’m aware that after each of the Mountaineers’ last three or four losses, my Sunday morning columns have talked about the job security of the head ball coach to a certain degree. I don’t believe in pressuring someone to make a change after every single loss; I really don’t. The only reason it has been a main point of these weekly stories is because of the nature of each loss and how this team continues to fall short of expectations.

Why is it that players can’t take the next step and bring some star power to this team? Aside from Zach Frazier and Wyatt Milum, WVU hasn’t had pro-level talent that they recruited out of high school and developed. There used to be four or five of those guys every year in previous regimes.

Why is it that Garrett Greene hasn’t turned into one of the top quarterbacks in the Big 12? Why has CJ Donaldson not evolved into one of the top backs in the league? Why is someone like Justin Robinson not putting up big numbers? Could you imagine what type of numbers he would have put up in a Dana Holgorsen offense? They say his biggest issue is playing away from the ball. Okay? Then throw it to him. That’s his number one job anyway, isn’t it?

Development has been a big problem with this staff at the skill spots on offense and everywhere on defense. And when you’re a program that is lined with big pockets to use in the transfer portal or high-end recruits, development is the one thing you have to ace.

Will Wren Baker make a change? I don’t know. But the longer this goes, the more stale the product becomes to the fanbase and, eventually, to the players being recruited to West Virginia. I’m not sitting in Baker’s chair, but once again, all I know is the people of West Virginia deserve better. What that looks like and who returns the program to relevance is for Baker to figure out.

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