Prepare for one of many messiest statewide campaigns in latest West Virginia historical past — whether or not or not Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) runs for re-election.

Why it issues: West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) would pose the most important Republican menace Manchin has confronted in his 12–12 months Senate profession.

• Justice, a former Democrat, is inching nearer to a Senate marketing campaign towards Manchin, in response to Republicans acquainted with his pondering. The transfer would give Republicans a powerful alternative to win the red-state seat.
• Justice has a 64% approval ranking within the state, 24 proportion factors larger than Manchin’s, and advised CBS Information he’ll decide this month whether or not he is operating.

If Justice will get in, he faces a main towards Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.V.), a Freedom Caucus member who plans on going after the governor for supporting wasteful spending.

• Mooney defeated former GOP Rep. David McKinley final 12 months in a race that hinged on whether or not West Virginia Republicans favored a lawmaker who may convey federal a refund residence or one who pledged to carry a fiscally conservative line. They selected the latter.

What they’re saying: “I’ve given lots of thought and I’m nonetheless very, very, very significantly contemplating it,” Justice advised Wheeling-area tv station WTRF. “Actually, I’m in all probability leaning that manner.”

Between the strains: If he runs, Justice will face questions on his private funds. A 2019 Fortune journal profile describes the governor as “a person who has a tough time paying the payments”:

Since 2016 courts have ordered Justice and his firms to pay greater than $10 million to greater than a dozen suppliers, employees and authorities entities. Over the identical time, his firms additionally piled up $13 million-plus in tax liens. He claims to have paid off many of those.

By the numbers: Manchin, who has not determined whether or not he’ll run for re-election, raised solely $175,000 within the closing three months of 2022 however nonetheless ended the 12 months with a hefty $9.53 million in his marketing campaign coffers.