Washington, D.C

Trump’s reignited trade war with China clouds IMF, World Bank meetings

Published

6 months ago

October 13, 2025

Trump’s reignited trade war with China clouds IMF, World Bank meetings

WASHINGTON, Oct 13 (Reuters) – Finance chiefs gathering in Washington this week were ready to discuss the global economy’s surprising resilience in the face of Donald Trump’s tariff assaults – until the U.S.-China trade war erupted again with the U.S. president threatening 100% duties on Chinese imports and sending markets into a tailspin.

The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are now certain to be dominated by questions over whether Trump’s vow to retaliate against China’s dramatically expanded export controls on rare earths will plunge the world’s two largest economies back into a full-blown trade war.

A delicate truce crafted by Washington and Beijing over the past five months brought tariffs down from triple-digit levels and prompted upgrades to the IMF’s global growth outlook. Plans for Trump to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month fueled hopes for a further thaw.

But that optimism was shattered on Friday as Trump threatened to cancel the meeting and impose a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese goods, along with other countermeasures.

Souring the mood further was China’s move on Friday to match new U.S. port fees for Chinese-built or owned vessels with its own levies on port calls by ships built or flagged in the U.S. or owned by companies more than 25% owned by U.S.-domiciled investment funds.

The IMF and World Bank meetings will bring more than 10,000 people to Washington, including finance ministers and central bank governors from more than 190 countries.

Martin Muehleisen, a former IMF strategy chief who is now with the Atlantic Council, said Trump’s threats may be posturing for negotiating leverage, but said they will inject volatility into the week’s proceedings.

“Let’s hope that sanity prevails. If Trump goes back to 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, there’s going to be a lot of pain in the markets for him,” Muehleisen said.

Trump’s threat on Friday triggered the biggest U.S. stock sell-off in months at a time when investors and top policymakers were already growing anxious about a frothy stock market fueled by an investment boom in artificial intelligence that some officials fear could hurt future employment.

While China has some leverage over Trump due to its global dominance in rare earths, which are essential for tech manufacturing, Muehleisen said it is not in Beijing’s interest to plunge back into an environment of triple-digit tariffs.

It is unclear whether U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has led U.S.-China trade talks, would meet with any Chinese officials this week in Washington. A Treasury spokesperson declined to comment on Bessent’s bilateral meetings schedule.

GROWTH FORECASTS HOLD UP

Prior to the escalation on Friday’s, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva had touted the global economy’s ability to withstand multiple shocks, from tariff costs and uncertainty to a slowing U.S. job market, rising debt levels and rapid shifts brought on by AI’s rapid adoption.

In a preview of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts due on Tuesday, Georgieva said last week that the global GDP growth rate for 2025 would be only slightly less than the 3.3% for 2024. Based on tariff rates that were lower than initially feared – including the U.S.-China duties – the IMF in July raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast by two-tenths of a percentage point to 3.0%.

“What we are seeing is demonstrable resilience in the world,” Georgieva told Reuters in an interview. “But we are also saying it is a time of exceptional uncertainty, and downside risks are still dominating the forecast. So watch it, don’t get too comfortable.”

G7 FOCUS ON RUSSIA

Finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrial democracies are expected to meet on Wednesday to discuss efforts to step up sanctions pressure on Russia that is aimed at ending Moscow’s war against Ukraine.

A British government source said that finance minister Rachel Reeves wanted to ensure joint action with G7 and European Union countries to cut Russia’s energy revenues and access to overseas assets that comply with international law.

Among these options that G7 ministers will discuss is a European Union plan to use Russian frozen sovereign assets to back a loan of 140 billion euros ($162 billion) to Ukraine.

BESSENT’S AGENDA FOR INSTITUTIONS

The U.S. footprint at the meetings will be large, extending from tariff discussions to Bessent’s calls for the IMF and World Bank to pull back from climate and gender issues to focus on their core missions of financial stability and development.

The meetings will be the public debut for Dan Katz, the IMF’s new No. 2 official. Member countries will be watching to see how Katz, a former investment banker who was Bessent’s chief of staff, carries out the U.S. Treasury chief’s agenda, which also calls for stronger IMF criticism of China’s state-led economic policies.

The U.S. Treasury’s market intervention on behalf of Argentina, the IMF’s largest borrower, also will take center stage at the meetings as Argentina’s right-wing libertarian President Javier Milei will join his ally Trump two blocks away at the White House on Tuesday. The move was welcomed by Georgieva to keep Argentina’s market-based reforms on track.

But Muehleisen, the former IMF official, said the Fund risks being pushed by its largest shareholder to enforce Trump’s geopolitical goals – ratcheting up pressure on China and potentially extending more aid to U.S. allies like Argentina without adequate reforms.

“Is it really still a global, multilateral organization, or is it becoming a bit more of an appendage of the U.S. Treasury?” he said. “This will be an interesting debate.”

Reporting by David Lawder; Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal and David Milliken; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao

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The director of the Congressional Budget Office—known for its gloomy national debt data—is very optimistic that a crisis will be avoided entirely | Fortune

Published

3 hours ago

April 20, 2026

Press Room

The director of the Congressional Budget Office—known for its gloomy national debt data—is very optimistic that a crisis will be avoided entirely | Fortune

Dr Phillip Swagel is an optimist, both by nature and when he looks at the U.S. economy.

This fact is perhaps at odds with what one might assume: Swagel is the director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the nonpartisan agency that offers independent budgetary and economic analysis to Congress.

Very often—an inevitable occupational hazard—the subject of national debt and the interest the U.S. Treasury pays to maintain is its central focus. The numbers are eye-watering: Public debt stands at more than $39 trillion. The interest expense on that borrowing now exceeds $1 trillion a year. Indeed, the latest budget update from the CBO highlights that the government—according to preliminary estimates—paid out nearly $530 billion between October 2025, when the fiscal year starts, and March 2026. This equates to more than $88 billion in interest payments a month, or more than $22 billion a week.

The CBO’s figures are routinely cited by policymakers, think tanks, and lobbyists as alarming evidence that the U.S. needs to find a more sustainable fiscal path or risk dire straits.

Swagel doesn’t subscribe to the notion that the U.S. will face a crisis of its own making. His justification is simple: He was at the Treasury during the 2008 financial crisis, and joined the CBO months before the COVID pandemic began. He has watched as the U.S. economy, seemingly against all odds, has clawed its way out of economic crises before.

That’s not to say Swagel isn’t a staunch advocate of setting the U.S. on a more sustainable fiscal path—rather, he trusts the people in power to do so when the time comes.

Why the optimism?

Among those concerned about national debt are notable names: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is also worried about federal spending and has endorsed a plan floated by Berkshire Hathaway founder Warren Buffett that would render members of Congress ineligible for reelection if they allow deficits to exceed 3% of GDP.

On the other hand, optimistic economists suggest that, despite the value of the debt, it’s not actually an issue: the bond market is holding steady, indicating a reliable market of buyers. Likewise, the U.S.’s own central bank buys huge swaths of the debt, meaning, in the simplest of layman’s terms, the economy can essentially print its own money. There are holes in this argument, not least the fact that Fed chairman nominee Kevin Warsh has suggested he would like to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet and may therefore be less inclined to finance borrowing.

Swagel’s positive outlook doesn’t rely on the argument that a crisis hasn’t happened yet, so therefore it never will: “[My optimism] is rooted in my experience,” Swagel tells Fortune in an exclusive interview in Washington D.C. “First being at Treasury during the financial crisis and seeing very difficult times and the country coming together with an effective response—not saying it’s perfect, lots of controversy—but it was effective.”

“The second thing is policymakers are smart, they’re thoughtful. Interacting with members of Congress makes me optimistic. I know you read about all the squabbles … I’m completely aware of this, but the policymakers that are thinking about these things are thoughtful and effective. Not necessarily always effective at passing legislation, but that’s part of our political system, it was set up to make it difficult ot pass legislation.”

Decisions on the horizon

Swagel’s optimism that Congress will be pushed into action will be tested sooner rather than later, likely at some point in the next six years, he told Fortune. This is partly due to the fact that, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) both Social Security and Medicare will become insolvent within that time period.

“Making progress to address the fiscal trajectory would be a positive for the U.S. economy,” Swagel said. “Credible steps would lead to lower interest rates that would make the subsequent adjustment easier, there is a reward to virtue. It’s a positive thing, we can’t go on [with] the scolding narrative. My sense is that members of Congress understand the fiscal situation, it’s not that everyone single one has looked at our one-pager of numbers and understands the debt to the third decimal point, but they understand something needs to be done.”

“It doesn’t have to be done immediately, but at some point reasonably soon.”

Swagel is of the opinion that bond investors haven’t increased risk premiums not because they’re not worried about a fiscal crisis, but because they have priced in preventative action from Congress—in his mind “a vote of confidence that my optimism is not misplaced.”

“As a country, we face up to these problems. It’s not happening now, I’m not sure it’s going to happen in the rest of this year or even the next year, or the next two years. But we will face up to it, and the market in some sense expects us to, because otherwise interest rates would be higher,” he explained.

The Cheesecake Factory

The role of the CBO, to some extent, is to provide policymakers with their options if and when they do choose to take action on federal deficits. It’s a menu not unlike the Cheesecake Factory, Swagel says: Large, inclusive of a range of modifications and options, and delivered without judgement.

“Right now it’s maybe a pick three, and you’re looking at a six or seven course menu,” joked Caleb Quakenbush, director of fiscal policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, in an interview with Fortune. “The longer you delay, the more you’re gonna have to add to your tab, and those options become more expensive.”

Indeed, economists and analysts aren’t necessarily worried about the absolute level of government debt, rather the debt-to-GDP ratio. Depending on whom you ask, the debt-to-GDP ratio stands at around 122% of GDP at present. This measure demonstrates an economy’s spending versus its growth, and the risk associated with lending to a nation that isn’t growing fast enough to handle its spending. To rebalance that ratio, an economy could either cut spending or increase growth—the latter being by far the less painful option.

The growth option is becoming less feasible, Michael Peterson, CEO of fiscal think tank the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, told Fortune in an exclusive interview: “I think it requires government action because we’ve waited so long. We’ve added so many trillions, and the current deficit is so big at 6% that the level of growth you would need really exceeds what is feasible.

“Growth needs to be a part of it, but it’s sort of a vicious cycle. The longer we delay, the more debt we have, the slower growth is going to be. The more we get this under control, I think the greater optimism there is, interest rates go down, more growth comes from that. It’s sort of a virtuous or vicious cycle depending on your policy response.”

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Washington, D.C

12th Honor Flight Tallahassee returns home from successful trip to Washington D.C.

Published

15 hours ago

April 19, 2026

Press Room

12th Honor Flight Tallahassee returns home from successful trip to Washington D.C.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – Seventy-two veterans took a trip Saturday to our nation’s capital to visit memorials honoring their service in the armed forces.

This year marks the 12th trip to Washington, D.C. for Honor Flight Tallahassee.

Early Saturday morning, veterans and their guardians met to take a charter flight up to D.C.

Throughout the day, veterans were taken to the World War II memorial, as well as the Korean and Vietnam War memorials. The veterans also visited Arlington National Cemetery and the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

More Tallahassee news:

The day ended with a wonderful welcome home celebration.

Our Jacob Murphey, Julia Miller, Taylor Viles, and Grace Temple accompanied the veterans, capturing moments from throughout the day.

The team will have live coverage from Washington, D.C. on Monday to share more from the day’s events.

We will continue to have coverage throughout the month of May, leading up to our Honor Flight special on Memorial Day.

To keep up with the latest news as it develops, follow WCTV on Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Nextdoor and X (Twitter).

Have a news tip or see an error? Write to us here. Please include the article’s headline in your message.

Be the first to see all the biggest headlines by downloading the WCTV News app. Click here to get started.

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Washington, D.C

Storm Team4 Forecast: A chilly, gusty Sunday before a cool start to the week

Published

1 day ago

April 19, 2026

Press Room

Storm Team4 Forecast: A chilly, gusty Sunday before a cool start to the week

4 things to know about the weather:

Chances of rain in the morning
Gusty Sunday
Chilly Monday
Temps will rise again through the work week

Download the NBC Washington app on iOS and Android to check the weather radar on the go.

After a nice and warm Saturday, changes arrive for part two of the weekend.

The first half of your Sunday will have a chance for showers. Winds will pick up with our next system and are expected to gust to about 20-30 mph. Cooler air will settle in, and lows Sunday night fall into the 40s.

Highs temps Monday will reach only into the mid to upper 50s.

However, temperatures will rise through the week, so you won’t need your jackets every day.