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Trump’s federal layoffs could mean bleak outlook for Washington DC

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Trump’s federal layoffs could mean bleak outlook for Washington DC


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The Trump administration’s sweeping layoffs of federal employees already appear to be pushing up joblessness in Washington, D.C., and an economist projects they’ll tip the city into a recession this year.

The developments are rocking an area of the country that traditionally has served as a bastion of steady employment and economic stability through slowdowns or downturns that have roiled other parts of the country.

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Nationally, layoffs have remained historically low and forecasters expect solid economic growth this year with little chance of recession.

In the week ending Feb. 15, 1,695 Washington, D.C., workers applied for unemployment insurance for the first time, up slightly from 1,682 the previous week and 619 during the comparable week a year ago, according to the Labor Department’s non-seasonally adjusted figures.

During the four weeks since Trump took office, 5,455 District of Columbia employees filed initial jobless claims – a reliable gauge of layoffs – up sharply from 2,014 in the same period in early 2024. It’s not clear what portion of those are government workers.

But nationally, excluding D.C., the number of Americans seeking jobless benefits through the first four weeks of both this year and in 2024 has totaled about 920,000 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, highlighting an unusual surge in the district.

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Last week, a seasonally adjusted 219,000 Americans across the U.S. filed initial claims, up from 214,000 the previous week and underscoring that, overall, layoffs remain low.

Do federal government employees get laid off?

So far, the Trump administration has fired more than 10,000 workers at the departments of Energy, Agriculture, Interior, Health and Human Services and Veterans Affairs as well as at the Internal Revenue Service and the Environmental Protection Agency, among other agencies.

The layoffs come on top of about 75,000 workers who have taken buyouts offered by Trump and White House aide Elon Musk, who have said they’re looking to slash government costs and improve efficiency.

Are all federal employees on probation getting fired?

Administration officials have indicated the cuts would include employees still in their probationary periods as well as others. About 220,000 government employees had less than a year of experience as of March 2024, according to the Office of Personnel Management.

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The layoffs mark the beginning of “large-scale reductions” in the federal workforce, according to an executive order signed by Trump.

Ultimately, about 400,000 federal workers likely will lose their jobs over the next two years, or about 15% of the 2.4 million members of the federal workforce, estimates Adam Kamins, regional economist at Moody’s Analytics. Many of the targeted positions, he said, will be scattered across the country, slightly slowing growth nationally, but an outsized share – nearly 100,000 – will be in Washington. The nation’s capital is home to slightly less than a fifth of the federal workforce, according to Pew Research.

What is a recession in simple terms?

The job cuts are expected to push D.C. into a mild recession, or declining economic output, that lasts from the second quarter of this year to the third quarter of 2026, Kamins said. He predicts the city’s unemployment rate will rise from its current 5.5% to a peak of 6.5% in mid-2026 and its gross domestic product will contract for six straight quarters.

Nationally, forecasters expect the economy to grow a solid 2.2% this year and put recession odds at just 25%, according to those surveyed this month by Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

“This is a very unusual situation for D.C.,” Kamins said. “It typically is one of the least” vulnerable cities to the ups and downs of economic cycles as a result of stable government jobs that don’t depend on the vagaries of consumer demand.

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In fact, under normal circumstances, if Trump’s widening trade war with other countries were to cause a U.S. recession in the next year or two, Washington government jobs could have been viewed as landing spots for laid-off private-sector workers, Kamins said.  

The projected 100,000 federal job cuts will also likely mean thousands more additional job losses as restaurants, retailers and other D.C. businesses that rely on sales to federal workers scale back, Kamins said. That could mean new strains for lower-income residents who work in those occupations. The district’s poverty rate was 14% in 2023, compared to 11.1% for the nation, according to Statista and the U.S. Census Bureau.

“A lot of folks are close to the poverty line,” Kamins said. “It’s just going to exacerbate their situation.”

As employees who work in D.C. but live in Virginia and Maryland receive layoff notices, many will likely reduce their spending, slowing growth in those states but stopping short of nudging the areas into a downturn, Kamins said.

How is the US job market right now?

Meanwhile, government workers who lose their jobs are expected to enter a cooling labor market with fewer opportunities. Many specialize in administration, project management or information technology and there are now relatively few private-sector openings in those fields, said Julia Pollak, chief economist of ZipRecruiter, a leading job search site.

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“This will be very difficult for many of them,” she said.

Professional business services, a sprawling sector populated with 22.7 million lawyers, consultants, office managers and other white-collar workers, has shed 69,000 jobs over the past year, Labor Department figures show.

What career is most in demand right now?

At the same time, employers are struggling to find finance specialists, cybersecurity workers and administrative health care professionals, Pollak said. Federal workers in those fields, she said, could find plenty of job vacancies at higher wages.

Many federal employees will likely have to leave the region to find work, Kamins said, with some pivoting to new occupations. If a new administration seeks to restore the scuttled jobs in four years, it may be difficult to find employees, he said.

Pollak is more sanguine.

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“There are many people who want to serve in the federal government,” she said.



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The Trump administration is suing the District of Columbia over its gun laws – WTOP News

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The Trump administration is suing the District of Columbia over its gun laws – WTOP News


The Trump administration is suing the local government of Washington, D.C., over its gun laws, alleging that restrictions on certain semiautomatic weapons run afoul of Second Amendment rights

FILE – The U.S. Department of Justice building in Washington, Dec. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana, File)(AP/Jose Luis Magana)

The Trump administration is suing the local government of Washington, D.C., over its gun laws, alleging that restrictions on certain semiautomatic weapons run afoul of Second Amendment rights.

The U.S. Department of Justice filed its lawsuit Monday in U.S. District Court in the District of Columbia, naming Washington’s Metropolitan Police Department and outgoing Chief of Police Pamela Smith as defendants and setting up another potentially seismic clash on how broadly the courts interpret individual gun possession rights.

“The United States of America brings this lawsuit to protect the rights that have been guaranteed for 234 years and which the Supreme Court has explicitly reaffirmed several times over the last two decades,” the Justice Department states.

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It’s the second such lawsuit the administration has filed this month: The Justice Department also is suing the U.S. Virgin Islands, alleging the U.S. territory is obstructing and systematically denying American citizens the right to possess and carry guns.

It’s also the latest clash between the District of Columbia and the federal government, which launched an ongoing law enforcement intervention into the nation’s capital over the summer, which was meant to fight crime. The district’s attorney general is challenging the deployment of the National Guard to the city as part of the intervention in court.

In Washington, Metropolitan Police Department spokesman Sean Hickman said the agency does not comment on pending litigation.

The Justice Department asserts that the District is imposing unconstitutional bans on AR-15s and other semiautomatic weapons the administration says are legal to posses under the Supreme Court’s 2008 Heller precedent, which also originated from a dispute over weapons restrictions in the nation’s capital.

In that seminal case, the court ruled that private citizens have an individual right to own and operate weapons “in common use today,” regardless of whether they are part of what Second Amendment text refers to as a “well regulated militia.”

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“There seems to us no doubt, on the basis of both text and history, that the Second Amendment conferred an individual right to keep and bear arms,” the majority reasoned. The justices added a caveat: “Of course, the right was not unlimited, just as the First Amendment’s right of free speech was not.”

The Justice Department argues that the District has gone too far in trying to limit weapons possession under that caveat. Administration lawyers emphasize the Heller reference to weapons “in common use today,” saying it applies to firearms that District of Columbia residents cannot now register. Those restrictions in turn subject residents to criminal penalties for unregistered firearms, the administration asserts.

“Specifically, the District denies law-abiding citizens the ability to register a wide variety of commonly used semi-automatic firearms, such as the Colt AR-15 series rifles, which is among the most popular of firearms in America, and a variety of other semi-automatic rifles and pistols that are in common use,” Justice Department lawyers write.

“D.C’s current semi-automatic firearms prohibition that bans many commonly used pistols, rifles or shotguns is based on little more than cosmetics, appearance, or the ability to attach accessories,” the suit continues, “and fails to take into account whether the prohibited weapon is ‘in common use today’ or that law-abiding citizens may use these weapons for lawful purposes protected by the Second Amendment.”

The Justice Department does not include any individual plaintiffs from Washington, D.C., alleging any violations of their constitutional rights. That’s different from the Heller case, which is named for Dick Heller, a Washingtonian who filed a civil lawsuit challenging the city’s handgun ban in 2003.

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The administration argues in the suit that it has jurisdiction to challenge current District laws under the sweeping federal crime law of 1994.

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© 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, written or redistributed.



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Virginia Lawmakers Raise Safety Concerns Over Aircraft Safety After Fatal D.C. Crash

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Virginia Lawmakers Raise Safety Concerns Over Aircraft Safety After Fatal D.C. Crash


WASHINGTON, D.C. (WAVY) — On Dec. 10, U.S. Reps. Don Beyer, Suhas Subramanyam, James Walkinshaw, Bobby Scott, Jennifer McClellan and Eugene Vindman, members of Virginia’s congressional delegation, issued a statement regarding Section 373 of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026.

The section addresses manned rotary-wing aircraft safety in the wake of the Jan. 29, 2025, midair collision at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport that killed 67 people.

The lawmakers said they share concerns raised by the Families of Flight 5342 and the National Transportation Safety Board over Section 373 of the National Defense Authorization Act, citing safety risks in the airspace around Reagan National Airport following January’s fatal collision.

Congress said the provision allows waivers for training flights that could further congest already crowded airspace.

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Congress stated, “This provision falls short of NTSB’s preliminary safety recommendations and omits changes that are essential to improve visibility, safety and communications between military and civilian aircraft in D.C. airspace. Further action is needed to prevent a repetition of the mistakes that led to this incident. We will continue working as quickly as possible with our colleagues and transportation officials to get this right before any waivers are issued and to ensure air safety in the region.”



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Week Ahead in Washington: December 21

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Week Ahead in Washington: December 21


WASHINGTON (Gray DC) – With Congress in recess and President Donald Trump spending the holidays in Florida, attention has turned to the Epstein files and unresolved healthcare legislation.

The trove of documents partly released Friday has prompted some members of Congress to question whether the Department of Justice followed the law requiring their release, as many files were heavily redacted.

California Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna said Friday night he and Kentucky Republican Rep. Thomas Massie were considering drafting articles of impeachment against Attorney General Pam Bondi for not complying with the law the two authored earlier this year.

Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” some photos were held back at the request of victim advocacy groups as the DOJ looks at whether they need redactions to protect the victims.

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With Congress gone, there remains no solution on healthcare. Enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025.

Despite enough lawmakers signing onto a discharge petition forcing a vote to extend the subsidies, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) sent the House home without holding a vote.

Johnson said the full House will vote on the bill when Congress returns to Washington in early January, after the subsidies have lapsed.

Federal workers will get some extra time off this week. Trump signed an executive order closing federal agencies and offices on both Dec. 24 and 26, in addition to Christmas Day.

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