Two-time ACC Defensive Player of the Year Reece Beekman and first-team All-ACC defensive selection Ryan Dunn aren’t walking through that door for Virginia this season. Albeit stockpiling transfers this offseason, Coach Tony Bennett is staring down a roster bereft of individual defensive stars and one with limited experience in the vaunted Pack Line Defense. 

The data-driven website KenPom puts out yearly rankings based upon measures such as offensive and defensive ratings, luck, and adjusted tempo. According to the site, the ‘Hoos have notched an impressive nine appearances in the top-10 of overall defensive ratings since 2012. Alarmingly, however, is the sharp dip in the post-COVID era; finishes of 36th, 59th, and 25th occurred in 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23, respectively. Last year’s roster did bounce back with a seventh-overall ranking in KenPom’s defensive ratings, thanks in large part to the contributions of Beekman, Dunn, and transfer center Jordan Minor’s emergence halfway through the season.

Now, the 2021-22 and 2023-24 seasons, which culminated in double-digit losses, an NIT appearance and a 26-point play-in defeat, vary significantly in their offensive and defensive outputs. The former finished 85th and 59th overall in offensive and defensive ratings, respectively, while the latter’s numbers show 200th and 7th — a massive discrepancy. With the Cavaliers losing the three aforementioned pieces on defense, the offense might be expected to shoulder a heavy burden to offset a roster without much Pack Line experience (hopefully, rumors are true surrounding Bennett’s desire to change some offensive schemes).

Nonetheless, here are some ‘Hoos who could pick up the slack.

Reliable Defensive Pieces: junior guard Isaac McKneely, senior guard Jalen Warley

*DBPR, according to EvanMiya, another data-backed college basketball site, “reflects the defensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court. This rating incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the defensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the offensive strength of the opponent’s players on the floor.”

McKneely isn’t Beekman, but he’s a steady guard who has played in the Pack Line throughout college and high school (at Poca High in Poca, WV). Courtesy of EvanMiya, McKneely posted a .98 DBPR* last season — good for fifth out of eight Cavaliers graded by the site — and a .86 in 2022-23 — sixth out of eighth. I’d argue that McKneely passes the eye test as a fluid and smart defender occasionally undersized in some matchups, yet his metrics suggest that improvement will be needed quickly to compensate for Beekman’s absence. 

A senior transfer from in-conference foe Florida State, guard Jalen Warley projects to be a high-quality fit in Bennett’s scheme despite his offensive shortcomings. The senior from Philadelphia outranked all fellow Seminoles two seasons ago with a DBPR of 1.16 followed by a fourth-best 1.85 mark in 2023-24. These numbers appear to be low; however, Florida State’s roster two years ago, having finished the season 9-23, featured five players with a negative DBPR. The team DBPR average increased by 0.93 after a 17-16 record in 2023-24, a sizable jump.

At 6’7, a player like Warley fits a mold closer to a Ryan Dunn or a Braxton Key than he does a McKneely or Beekman, and thus possesses more versatility when it comes to guarding the 1-4. Blanketing the opponent’s best guard might not fall to McKneely, as anticipated, but to a lengthier defender with a penchant for disrupting passing lanes and providing sound help defense. Assuming Bennett squeezes the defensive potential out of an already-impressive on-ball defender in Warley, there’s reason to believe that the defense will recover from its losses. 

If there’s one player to watch for the ‘Hoos defensively, it’s the Florida State transfer.

Potential Defensive Breakouts: freshman center Anthony Robinson, sophomore guard Dai Dai Ames

I’ve heard nothing but palpable buzz surrounding the redshirt center this offseason. Despite having such a limited read on a player who hasn’t yet touched the court, it’s clear that Robinson has gained several pounds of muscle over the course of his redshirt season and may be thrust into the rotation earlier than expected. Robinson could, in time, fill the role of a Darion Atkins-type player for Bennett: a strong rebounder, interior defender, and player whose importance to the roster can’t be reduced to a box score summary. At 6’10,” 238 lbs., the redshirt isn’t far off from Atkins’ measurables before his senior season in 2014-15 — 6’8,’’ 240 lbs. One can hope that Robinson replicates Atkins’ underrated career in Charlottesville, one in which he garnered an ACC Defensive Player of the Year honor and noticeably improved following his junior season. 

While Virginia’s transfer class isn’t defensively-loaded outside of Warley, sophomore transfer Dai Dai Ames has shown flashes as an on-ball defender. The ex-Kansas State guard registered a measly 1.14 DBPR last season — good for sixth out of seven Wildcats — yet also took on tougher on-ball assignments with 5’11’’ backcourt mate Tylor Perry limited defensively. If Ames takes the point guard job from Warley or freshman Christian Bliss, he’ll have less pressure to take on matchups against larger shooting guards or even wings, so long as Warley, McKneely, or a bigger guard such as Andrew Rohde or Taine Murray are on the floor. There’s a reason why Bennett brought in Ames, a crafty playmaker whose toughness will be key.

While the defensive personnel is thin, the Pack Line will endure. The individual stardom might be lacking without Beekman and Dunn in the fold, yet Bennett will find a way through on that end of the floor. He always does.

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