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Film Forecast ‘23: Virginia at Miami

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Film Forecast ‘23: Virginia at Miami


The Miami Hurricanes ended their two game losing streak with a big upset win over the Clemson Tigers. Miami is now 5-2 (1-2 in the ACC) heading into a home matchup against UVA. The Cavaliers are 2-5 (1-2 in the ACC). UVA is coming off of a big upset win of their own, a 31-27 victory over the UNC Tar Heels.

The big question heading into Saturday, October 28th at 3:30pm (eastern) on the ACC Network is whether or not The U’s starting quarterback, Tyler Van Dyke, will be healthy enough to suit up for the ‘Canes.


The Doppler

Per Bill Connelly’s SP+, The Hurricanes are the 23rd best team in FBS, while UVA is 80th. The Hurricanes 25th ranked offense will face UVA’s 58th ranked defense. The Hoos 98th ranked offense will have to figure out how to score against Miami’s 21st ranked defense. The Hurricanes also have a clear edge in the kicking game- Miami’s kicking is 4th, UVA’s is 67th.

In points per game, Miami is 17th in FBS with 34.3 PPG while UVA is 86th with 23 PPG. THe Hoos are 113th in points per game allowed on defense with 34.2 per game. Miami is 33rd and allowing 21.2 PPG.

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The ‘Canes clearly have the more efficient offense. Miami is 18th in points per play compared to UVA being 94th. Miami is also 13th in yards per play while the Hoos are 104th.

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Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Both teams are sloppy with a bad turnover margin per game and penalties per game. Miami is 77th in turnover margin with -0.2 per game, while Virginia is 100th in FBS with -0.5. The Hurricanes are still sloppy in penalties, too. Miami is 120th with 7.7 penalties per game, the Cavaliers are 97th with 6.8.

Kicking info Andres Borregales has been clutch making 12-of-13 field goals and 27-of-28 extra points this season. KR Brashard Smith is averaging 33.9 yards per return with a score and Dylan Joyce has picked up where Lou Hedley left off as punter.

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UVA’s kicker, Will Bettridge, is 8-of-9 on FG’s and 100% on PAT’s. UVA’s punter Daniel Starks is averaging 43.5 yards per punt, but the Hoos have a mediocre return game.

I would expect a sloppy game with a few dumb turnovers and a lot of dumb penalties. I’m putting the yellow flag over/under at 15. Against UNC- UVA committed two turnovers and were flagged six times for 40-yards. But the Hoos defense held Drake Maye’s offense to 4-of-13 on 3rd down and 0-for-2 on 4th down.


UVA Offense

UVA has gone back and forth with their QB’s, but it seems like Tony Muskett is the guy moving forward. Mustkett finished with 6.9 yards per attempt, one touchdown and one interception against UNC. Muskett also rushed for 66 yards on 5.5 yards per carry (including two sacks).

The Cavaliers use a two running back system with Perris Jones and Mike Hollis. The duo rushed for 4.8 and 4.4 yards per carry, respectively. Hollis added three touchdowns on the ground.

Malik Washington was Muskett’s go-to guy with 12 receptions but only for 9.6 yards per catch. Washington did catch UVA’s only receiving touchdown on the day. UVA’s explosive plays also came from Sackett Wood Jr. Wood Jr. averaged 20.7 yards per grab on three receptions.

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UVA’s offensive line allowed two sacks and five TFL’s to UNC’s defense. UVA runs the NCAA Offense as it’s often called- basically “what most teams are doing.” 11 personnel, RPO tags, screens, some Air Raid concepts mixed with West Coast concepts.


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AboveSlide RPO off zone and hitting the wide open flat. This worries me about Miami with the slower inside linebackers on the field (LB Mauigoa and Corey Flagg).


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Above– Hollins is looking healthy again. Inside Zone with a pretty cut off the defender and into the end zone. Miami has to bring their A+ tackling game from the DB’s this week.


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Above– The same play that I think would work for Miami will work against them. Any delayed wheel forcing DB’s to communicate and switch or having Lance Guidry stick the LB/DB (maybe even a DE) on a TE or RB in man up the numbers is dangerous.


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Above– The reoccurring theme during the UVA-UNC game was grit. The Hoos are gritty and have put it together lately. A pair of close losses before back-to-back wins. They’re improving slowly but surely.


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Above– It’s BAIN TIME. Muskett isn’t impervious to bad mistakes. Rueben Bain Jr. has a magnet for the QB and the football. Expect Bain to come away with a sack and potentially a forced fumble vs. UVA.


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Above– This is the kind of play Miami has to take advantage of. Kam Kinchens picked off Cade Klubnik and it was good to see him on the field, healthy, and ball hawking one again.


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Above– The theme of Grit is back. Washington with the reception and hard fought yards after catch for his lone touchdown. Again- Miami DB’s need to bring their best tackling game into this one vs. UVA between Hollis at the 3rd level, Muskett scrambling, and Washington over the middle on Mesh here.


UVA Defense

The Cavaliers defense stepped up big against Drake Maye, holding the star QB to 27 points and two touchdowns with an interception. Maye averaged only 7.7 yards per attempt but did score once on the ground.

RB Omarion Hampton “got his” with 112 yards on 5.9 yards per carry. Tez Walker caught 11 balls for 13.3 yards per catch and one TD. Bryson Nesbitt averaged 31 yards per catch with a touchdown of his own.

The UVA defense sacked Maye twice, picked up three TFL’s and four PBU’s on the day.

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Above– So what’s open vs. UVA? I want to see more of Jacolby George, Brashard Smith, and Riley Williams up the seam. Get over the LB and between 2-high safeties. QB has to have great ball placement though or it’s a another INT in the end zone for Miami.

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Above– My “what’s open” from the SOTU twitter, the wheel route. Miami has to use more wheel routes. Xavier Restrepo is great at running them. Let Colbie Young and George run the posts inside to attack the safety and create OODA Loop window dressing to get the inside WR or TE free.

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Above– I realize the depth isn’t there for Miami on the O-Line but you still have to pull some more. If Don Chaney is out, and Henry Parrish isn’t getting burn (anyone with any info?), I guess it’s up to Chris Johnson, maybe Mark Fletcher (is he healthy?!), and Ajay Allen to get the job done. A puller will help them in space.

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AboveRPO and play-action passes with the slide tag for the TE are always deadly. Miami needs more of that with Elijah Arroyo healthy again.

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Above– Van Dyke’s leg is beat up and Emory Williams doesn’t look like the second coming of Johnny Manziel on the ground- but damn Miami needs a little bit of read option inside the +5 to keep defensive linemen honest.


The Forecast

Don’t forget, I’ll be on the SOTU account for the “Live X” of the game (live Tweet?). I hope I can be as fast and furious as Cam on the keyboard to keep up with the game and the ACCN stream on the ESPN App.

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The ESPN win expectancy leans to a 91.5% number towards the Hurricanes. The Canyonero Keys to Victory for Miami from the summer were:

1- Guidry be Guidry. Send pressure and play less REALLY off coverage. UVA doesn’t have the weapons that Clemson has, and Miami needs pressure to offset being poor in coverage. Wood Jr. and Jones have explosive potential, but it’s not from a bunch of guys like UNC or FSU seems to have.

2- Score some damn points. Depends on how well Williams plays in his second start, or how healthy Van Dyke is after sitting out against Clemson with an injury. If it’s Williams I can see him performing better against a much slower, less confusing defense. If it’s Van Dyke he has to show he’s not rusty after a week off.

3- Bounce back after a loss. Stay focused after a big upset win. Originally I marked the Clemson game as a loss, and wanted to see a big bounce back game. Now I’m saying don’t let the upset hangover leak into UVA week. Come out as focused as you did against CU.

Summer Prediction: Miami by 7. Updated prediction: Miami by 10.

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Virginia Lottery Mega Millions, Pick 3 Night results for Nov. 26, 2024

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Virginia Lottery Mega Millions, Pick 3 Night results for Nov. 26, 2024


The Virginia Lottery offers multiple draw games for those aiming to win big. Here’s a look at Nov. 26, 2024, results for each game:

Mega Millions

Mega Millions drawings take place every week on Tuesday and Friday at 11 p.m.

05-22-24-39-42, Mega Ball: 03, Megaplier: 3

Check Mega Millions payouts and previous drawings here.

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Pick 3

DAY drawing at 1:59 p.m. NIGHT drawing at 11 p.m. each day.

Night: 7-3-0, FB: 2

Day: 7-2-1, FB: 5

Check Pick 3 payouts and previous drawings here.

Pick 4

DAY drawing at 1:59 p.m. NIGHT drawing at 11 p.m. each day.

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Night: 1-6-6-8, FB: 5

Day: 7-4-5-8, FB: 4

Check Pick 4 payouts and previous drawings here.

Pick 5

DAY drawing at 1:59 p.m. NIGHT drawing at 11 p.m. each day.

Night: 0-5-4-9-9, FB: 2

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Day: 6-9-5-3-2, FB: 0

Check Pick 5 payouts and previous drawings here.

Cash4Life

Drawing everyday at 9 p.m.

04-11-13-30-39, Cash Ball: 02

Check Cash4Life payouts and previous drawings here.

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Cash Pop

Drawing times: Coffee Break 9 a.m.; Lunch Break 12 p.m.; Rush Hour 5 p.m.; Prime Time 9 p.m.; After Hours 11:59 p.m.

Coffee Break: 04

After Hours: 05

Prime Time: 06

Rush Hour: 09

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Lunch Break: 12

Check Cash Pop payouts and previous drawings here.

Cash 5

Drawing every day at 11 p.m.

12-22-31-38-44

Check Cash 5 payouts and previous drawings here.

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Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results

This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by a Center for Community Journalism (CCJ) editor. You can send feedback using this form.



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Virginia Basketball Holds Off Manhattan 74-65 | Key Takeaways

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Virginia Basketball Holds Off Manhattan 74-65 | Key Takeaways


Virginia (4-2) got back in the win column with a 74-65 victory over Manhattan (3-3) on Tuesday night at John Paul Jones Arena. Here are our five quick takeaways from the Cavaliers’ win over the Jaspers.

Virginia was in serious need of a win after suffering those two humbling losses to Tennessee and St. John’s in The Bahamas. But a convincing and comfortable victory would have been even better and for a while, it seemed like the Cavaliers were on their way to doing just that. UVA led by as many as 15 points in the first half and opened up a 16-point advantage midway through the second half. But rather than putting the game away, Virginia let Manhattan hang around and the visiting Jaspers were in a situation where they were fouling to stop the clock in the final minutes, narrowing the deficit to as little as six points. A win is a win, but this was far from a confidence-boosting performance.

Virginia went with a new starting lineup on Tuesday night, as Andrew Rohde replaced TJ Power. Rohde has been playing very well recently, particularly with his resurgent outside shot, while Power came into this game shooting 25% from beyond the arc this season.

Power initially responded well to the benching, swishing a corner three shortly after he first entered the game, hitting the deck for a loose ball, and coming up with a steal to stop a Manhattan fastbreak. But he wound up playing only six minutes, fewest among Cavaliers who saw the floor in the game. That does not bode well for the Duke transfer.

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Read Val’s Plus/Minus breakdown of the game here.

Rohde, on the other hand, had another solid game and was perhaps the top performer for the Hoos on Tuesday night. Though he missed his only three-pointer, which was a desperation off-balanced heave at the end of the shot clock, Rohde finished with a season-high 14 points, two assists (with one turnover), two rebounds, and four steals. Rohde showed excellent feel for the game, getting exactly where he wanted to go and exhibiting some nice touch on a couple of floaters plus a short jumper off the glass. If Rohde is playing like this and his three-point shot continues to be there, this could be a big season for the former St. Thomas transfer.

The main reason why this game continued to be close deep into the second half is because UVA’s defense frequently broke down and gave up open shots to Manhattan, particularly from the perimeter. The Jaspers shot 11/26 (42.3%) from beyond the arc and and seven different players knocked down a three. A couple of those Manhattan triples were well-contested, but the vast majority of them were wide-open. That’s very concerning and shows that this Virginia defense, with its many new faces, is still very much a work in progress.

Virginia’s offense was pretty well neutralized by Tennessee and St. John’s in The Bahamas. Tuesday night against Manhattan was a small step in the right direction, but there’s still a lot of room for improvement.

Let’s start with the good. Five different Cavaliers scored in double figures, including a game-high 18 points from Isaac McKneely, who hit three of his four three-point attempts and went 5/6 from the free throw line. We still think McKneely needs to shoot way more, but we’ll leave that alone for now. Dai Dai Ames scored 10 points and dished out five assists, but fouled out of the game. Blake Buchanan made his first four shots and finished with 11 points and five boards. Cofie made five of his seven shots and finished with 10 points and five boards. The best part of the game was that Virginia had 15 assists on 29 made baskets and turned the ball over only eight times, a vast improvement over the team’s turnover issues in The Bahamas.

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Virginia outscored Manhattan 42-22 in the paint. That looks like a good stat, but it’s also an inevitable stat because of UVA’s size advantage over the Jaspers, whose tallest player in the rotation is 6’8″. Still, Manhattan snared 10 offensive rebounds and scored 11 second-chance points. In The Bahamas, UVA was dominated on the glass and was simply outmatched from a physicality and athleticism standpoint. Nothing we saw from the Cavaliers on Tuesday night did anything to alleviate those concerns.

Up next, Virginia remains at home for another (supposed) tune-up game against Holy Cross on Friday at 4pm at John Paul Jones Arena.

Virginia vs. Manhattan Live Updates | NCAA Men’s Basketball

UVA Basketball: Ten Things We Learned About Virginia in The Bahamas

Virginia Basketball Falls to St. John’s 80-55 | Key Takeaways

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Virginia vs. Manhattan Live Updates | NCAA Men’s Basketball

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Virginia vs. Manhattan Live Updates | NCAA Men’s Basketball


Virginia (3-2) is set to host Manhattan (3-2) on Tuesday night at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia. Follow along with score updates, play-by-play, and live analysis for the game in the thread below. Updates will be posted at each timeout in reverse chronological order with the most recent updates at the top of the article. Refresh the page for updates.

As we await our 7pm tip between Virginia and Manhattan on the ACC Network, read a full preview of the game here: Virginia Basketball vs. Manhattan Game Preview, Score Prediction

Virginia has posted its starting five for tonight’s game:
– Dai Dai Ames
– Isaac McKneely
– Andrew Rohde
– Elijah Saunders
– Blake Buchanan

Notably, TJ Power has been replaced by Andrew Rohde in the starting lineup after starting the first five games of the season. Power is shooting 25% from three (4/16), while Rohde is currently shooting 50% from beyond the arc (7/14).

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  • Virginia and Manhattan will meet on Tuesday night for just the second time ever and first time since March 19th, 1993, when the Cavaliers defeated the Jaspers 78-66 in the first round of the 1993 NCAA Tournament.
  • UVA is 9-0 against current members of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.
  • Virginia’s last game against a MAAC team was back in 2012, when the Cavaliers defeated Fairfield 54-45 at John Paul Jones Arena.
  • UVA is 2-0 at John Paul Jones Arena this season and 3-0 against unranked opponents this season.

Read more Virginia men’s basketball news and content in the links below:

UVA Basketball: Ten Things We Learned About Virginia in The Bahamas

Virginia Basketball Falls to St. John’s 80-55 | Key Takeaways

The Plus/Minus: Virginia Gets Skunked by Tennessee in The Bahamas

Virginia Basketball Falls to Tennessee 64-42 | Key Takeaways



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