The race for Virginia’s governorship is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched political contests nationwide this year, with historical potential and big names ready to face off. In 2025, only the commonwealth and New Jersey will hold gubernatorial elections, with both races rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political report. 

With a narrow Republican majority governorships nationwide, elections in Virginia and New Jersey could shift the balance of power. Virginia, in particular, features two high-profile contenders: Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, and former U.S. Rep Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat. Both are seasoned officials, and their candidacies could make history as the state’s first woman governor.  

Jessica Taylor, a Cook Political Report analyst, highlighted the historic and political dynamics at play. She noted that Virginia often elects a governor from the party opposite the sitting president, a trend that could favor Spanberger after Republican Donald Trump’s reelection last year.  

“That would certainly bode well for Spanberger,” Taylor said, referencing Republican President Donald Trump’s victory in 2024. “But Youngkin is popular, and so can Earle-Sears build on that?” she added, referring to Virginia’s incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin, also a Republican.

Taylor also noted that while former Vice President Kamala Harris carried Virginia’s electoral college votes, Trump’s performance in the state has improved compared to his previous campaigns. 

She highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the impact of Trump’s second term on Virginia’s gubernatorial race, particularly in Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia. The region, home to many federal workers, could be affected by potential  federal job cuts under Trump’s administration, which could influence voter turnout and preferences. 

Virginia’s political landscape has shifted dramatically in recent years. The 2017 “Blue Wave” ushered in a surge of Democrats to the state legislature, resulting in a Democratic trifecta by the 2019 elections under former Gov. Ralph Northam. The momentum continued into the 2018 congressional midterms, where Democrats around the nation, including Virginia, achieved significant gains, largely in response to Trump. 

However, political tides turned in 2021. President Joe Biden’s election in 2020 coincided with the rise of a “parents’ rights” movement centered in Northern Virginia, propelling Republicans Youngkin and Earle-Sears to statewide victories. Their wins briefly flipped the House of Delegates to the GOP,  signaling a new phase in Virginia politics. 

Earle-Sears, who could make history as Virginia’s first woman governor, second Black governor and its first immigrant-born governor, has a notable political journey. In 2002, she flipped a Democratic-leaning House of Delegates district, serving one term before unsuccessfully challenging U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott, D-Newport-News, in 2004. Although unsuccessful, she later sought Virginia’s U.S. Senate nomination in 2018. 

She took a hiatus from politics for several years to focus on family, particularly caring for her late granddaughters during her late daughter’s struggles with mental health. Earle-Sears chronicled these personal and professional experiences in a 2023 memoir detailing her childhood, military service, and political career. 

Democrat Spanberger, a former Central Intelligence Agency officer, made her political debut in 2018 by flipping a Republican-held congressional seat. Over three terms in Congress she established a reputation as one of its most bipartisan members. 

The Cook Political Report’s Taylor credits Spanberger with being seasoned, citing her consistent ability to defended a highly competitive district. Since announcing her gubernatorial bid last year and opting not to seek re-election in Congress, she has focused on building her ground game, traveling across Virginia and connecting with voters.

Spanberger could face a primary challenge by Scott, who has floated a run. Supported by prominent Democrats like Sen. Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth, Scott is deeply entrenched with Black voters in Virginia’s coastal regions. As the ranking member of the House Education and Workforce Committee and the state’s first Black member of Congress since Reconstruction, he would bring significant influence to the race.

Another potential wildcard is former 5th District Republican Rep. Denver Riggleman, who has hinted at running as an independent. Riggleman served one term in Congress before losing his seat to Republican Bob Good after officiating a same-sex marriage. Since leaving Congress, he has taken on high-profile roles, including serving as an advisor to the committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Candidates looking to compete in the June primaries have until April 3 to file their paperwork.