Artificial intelligence hasn’t yet triggered the broad job losses many feared — at least not for experienced workers.

That’s the takeaway from a new analysis by J. Scott Davis, an assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, who examined employment and wage trends in industries most exposed to artificial intelligence.

Davis argues the data tell a more nuanced story — one that’s challenging the traditional career ladder, and helping older employees earn a bit more.

Since ChatGPT’s debut in late 2022, overall US employment has risen about 2.5%, according to Davis’ analysis, which uses an AI exposure index developed by researchers and published in the Strategic Management Journal. At the same time, employment in the sectors most exposed to AI has slipped by roughly 1%.

Wages tell a different story. The average weekly pay nationwide has climbed 7.5% since fall 2022. And across the most AI-exposed industries, wages have grown faster, up 8.5%.

If AI were simply replacing workers, both employment and wages would likely be falling, Davis wrote.

Instead, Davis points to a divide between “codified” knowledge — the kind learned from textbooks and in university courses — and “tacit” knowledge gained from hands-on work experience.

“Returns on job experience are increasing in AI-exposed occupations,” Davis wrote. “Young workers with primarily codifiable knowledge and limited experience will likely face challenging job markets.”

Using Bureau of Labor Statistics data, his analysis found that the occupations most exposed to AI tend to offer larger pay premiums for experienced workers.

In roles with less hands-on experience, AI exposure is associated with weaker wage growth, he wrote.

Workers under 25 in AI-exposed industries have also experienced employment declines, according to Davis’ analysis.

“There appears to be less cause for concern about widespread job displacement for older, experienced workers,” he wrote.

A less dire picture… so far

The findings offer a counterpoint to the more apocalyptic predictions about AI’s impact on the labor market.

Last week, Citrini Research published a memo, written from the hypothetical perspective in 2028, that theorized how AI could crush the US jobs market and trigger a broad-based market collapse.

“What if our AI bullishness continues to be right…and what if that’s actually bearish?” the memo asked.

Top executives inside the AI companies are worried about jobs, too.

Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, the company that runs Claude, warned that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level office jobs. OpenAI’s head of product, Olivier Godement, said the life sciences, customer service, and computer engineering industries were all about to get automated. And Boris Cherny, the creator of Claude Code, said that he doesn’t believe the job title “software engineer” will exist next year.

For now, at least, the Dallas Fed paints a different picture of today’s jobs market. It points to less mass displacement and market ruptures — and more power for employees who already have their foot in the door.

Game date, time and location: Tuesday, Mar. 3, 7:30 p.m. EST, Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida

TV: FanDuel Sports Network Sun, YES Network (Brooklyn)

Radio: 104.3 FM (Miami/Ft. Lauderdale), ESPN 106.3 FM, (West Palm Beach), FOX Sports Radio 105.9 FM (Ft. Myers/Naples), 1450 AM (Suart), 97.7 FM (Florida Keys), WAQI 710 AM (Spanish-language broadcast, South Florida), WFAN 101.9 FM/660 AM (Brooklyn)

VITALS: The Miami Heat (32-29) and Brooklyn Nets (15-45) meet for the second of three regular season matchups. Earlier this season, Miami recorded a, 106-95, win in Brooklyn on December 18 and has now won four of the last five overall against the Nets.

It also marks the first of consecutive games against Brooklyn with the teams facing each other again on Thursday. The Heat are 83-61 all-time versus the Nets during the regular season, including 44-26 in home games and 39-35 in road games.

PROJECTED STARTERS

HEAT

G Davion Mitchell

G Tyler Herro

C Bam Adebayo

F Pelle Larsson

F Andrew Wiggins

NETS

G Nolan Traore

G Terance Mann

C Nic Claxton

F Michael Porter Jr.

F Noah Clowney

INJURY REPORT

HEAT

Davion Mitchell: Questionable – Shoulder

Norman Powell: Out – Groin

Nikola Jovic: Out – Back

Trevor Keels: Available – G League

Jahmir Young: Available – G League

Vlad Goldin: Available – G League

Terry Rozier: Out – Not with team

NETS

Nic Claxton: Probable – Thumb

Egor Demin: Out – Foot

QUOTABLE

Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra: “Regardless of the scheme is, I always go back to that, it’s just about committing to doing hard things. We were really moving in the zone, taking away airspace and scrambling to challenge shots at the rim. In a lot of these losses in the last month we’ve just been giving up shots at the rim and threes.”

For more Miami Heat information and conversation, check out Off The Floor.

Alexander Toledo is a contributor to Miami Heat On SI and producer/co-host of the Five on the Floor podcast, covering the Heat and NBA. He can be reached at Twitter: @tropicalblanket

On Monday, the Braves were able to earn another Spring Training victory over the Detroit Tigers. It was a game where the starting pitching depth of the Braves was on full display, as Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz, and Owen Murphy all threw multiple innings. While it is likely unwise to expect big things from any of these three arms this season, they are a part of the “next man up” group for the Braves if injury again impacts the rotation. Each had a solid effort today, a trend that will hopefully continue.