As public schools in North Texas begin a new school year, they are also adjusting to a new reality.

While the region boasts greater economic strength and is planning infrastructure for a growing population in the next decade, educators are seeing a different story — persistently lower student enrollment with all signs pointing to this as our future.

Richardson ISD has a student population of about 37,000 and is among the most diverse in North Texas. But it is already closing some elementary schools this year and is projecting a decrease of roughly 3,600 students over the next five years. Irving ISD lost about 4,000 students in the last decade. Dallas ISD, the largest school district in the region, lost about 18,000 students from 2012 to 2023.

Well, of course, you might think: Families are moving to Collin County for the schools. That’s true to a degree, but dig into the enrollment numbers and you find that Collin County suburbs are facing similar issues. There are just fewer children, and especially young children in these central parts of our region.

Plano is already facing enrollment decline. Frisco, the city where people move for the schools, is seeing a flattening of the curve in student population growth.

Over the past 12 years, Plano ISD has seen enrollment decrease by 7,750 students, a district spokesperson said. District trustees voted earlier this year to close four schools. And although Frisco ISD isn’t facing declining enrollment or school closures, the pearl of North Texas districts hasn’t been experiencing the explosive growth it saw over the last decade or so. Between 2024 and 2030, the district is projecting slower growth.

We can expect the trend to be steeper in Dallas. Between 2012 and 2022, the population of children under 5 years old in Dallas County decreased by 9.5%, and the number of children under 9 years old went down by 3%, census data shows.

North Texas public schools are adjusting to this new reality at a moment when traditional public schools are facing more competition and political pressure. Independent school districts are dealing with budget constraints. Meanwhile, a push for private school vouchers in Austin is gathering strength.

Many complex factors are involved in the enrollment numbers schools are seeing. But the major underlying cause is this — birth rates are declining.

But what about immigration, you might ask. A key demographic driving lower birth rates is Hispanics. In Texas, this trend began during the 2008 recession, Texas State Demographer Lloyd Potter told us.

“Hispanics, not only in Texas, but nationwide, are now a multigenerational population,” Potter said. “The Latino population is more likely to gain educational attainment, and more likely to enter the labor force later compared to their parents and grandparents. This results in delayed childbirth.”

In other words, don’t count on immigration to resolve the demographic decline that is affecting schools. North Texas is growing, but even with huge numbers of immigrant families living within the district boundaries of Dallas, Richardson and Plano ISDs, we are losing kids.

It’s important to stress that changing demographics are not the whole story. The pandemic, for example, had a profound effect on public school enrollment. Housing prices and school quality are also important factors.

Since 2019, the year before the pandemic, Dallas County school districts have lost 4% of their students, according to an analysis by the Commit Partnership, an education nonprofit.

In the same period, charter school enrollment grew by 10%, and the private school share of students in the county continues to grow. Nationwide, there is also a turn to homeschooling. Texas accounted for 6% of the total homeschool enrollment in 2024, up from 3% in 2023, according to a census analysis.

It’s unlikely, though, that even with children pulling off to charter, private and home schools, that this can account for the much lower traditional public school enrollment we are seeing. And that’s the demographic problem.

That means more school closures and consolidations are coming, even as public schools are having to compete harder for the kids they get. Superintendents and school boards are aware of this, and many are adjusting well, our view.

We stand by this statement: Dallas ISD is one of, if not the most, innovative urban school districts in the country. For years, the district has been taking important steps to continue to attract new students despite facing ongoing enrollment declines.

DISD, as well as other Dallas County districts, are now focused on implementing high-quality instructional materials — better standard curricula and actual books and workbooks — that we think are going to show better outcomes for all students. We already know there is far more school choice within DISD and inner-ring suburban districts so that parents don’t have to rely on a single neighborhood school that might not serve their child.

There are also a lot of bright spots outside of DISD, like Garland and Cedar Hill ISDs. Garland made consistent progress in algebra in the last few years, and Cedar Hill showed an above-average performance in reading and math in the latest STAAR scores.

All of this is good news for our local schools. But the administrators of these schools know that change is coming, and in many cases has already arrived.

The children just aren’t here the way they were. And there may be no changing that.

We welcome your thoughts in a letter to the editor. See the guidelines and submit your letter here. If you have problems with the form, you can submit via email at letters@dallasnews.com

When it comes to surprises, the Texas Rangers have been one of the biggest. And not in a good way.

The reigning World Series champions are mired in another rut and there are few signs, if any, that the Rangers can make a move with the season slowly slipping away.

Many of the issues for Texas can be tied to pitching and injuries, but the staggering lack of offense could be the main culprit in the season-long malaise.

MLB.com recently listed the 12 biggest surprises of the season, with the Rangers and Atlanta Braves checking in together for their “run-of-the-mill run production.”

The website pointed out that the Rangers went into the week ranked eighth in the American League in runs. Texas led the league last season.

The Rangers weren’t quite as prolific as the Braves last year, but they seemingly had more upside, with rookies Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter added to a club that scored 881 runs last year. Alas, those two didn’t pop as planned, Adolis Garcia has had his worst season since becoming a regular and Marcus Semien has not been as dynamic.

– MLB.com

The Rangers (56-67) have only one extra-base hit in the first two games of the current series with the Minnesota Twins – Semien’s home run in Friday’s 4-3 loss. Overall, Texas has dropped five of six games, eight of 10, and nine of 12 to fall a season-high 11 games below .500 for the first time since the end of the 2022 campaign (68-94).

Catch up with Rangers on SI on Facebook and X. 

North Texas delegates to the Democratic National Convention tell political reporter Jack Fink the message they want to hear from Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Republican North Texas Congressman Roger Williams explains what he believes is a key economic argument for former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance.  Texas Representatives Brian Harrison and Mihaela Plesa discuss the ongoing school choice battle between Democrats and most Republicans in the Texas House. A controversial new policy at the State Fair over guns ends up with the Texas Attorney General threatening legal action against the City of Dallas. Jack Fink covers these stories and more in the latest edition of Eye on Politics (original air date: August 18, 2024). 

Democratic National Convention 

Delegates from across North Texas and elsewhere are convention-bound. They’re gathering in Chicago for the start of the Democratic National Convention on August 19. 

Here’s what you can expect:

• Citing a source, CBS News reports President Biden and former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will speak Monday night. 
• Former President Barack Obama will speak Tuesday night, while on Wednesday night, former President Bill Clinton will address delegates before Vice Presidential nominee, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. 
• On Thursday night, Vice President Kamala Harris will accept her party’s nomination. 

The Vice Presidential candidates have agreed to a debate. Republican Ohio Senator JD Vance and Democratic Governor Tim Walz will square off October 1st on CBS News. 

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will face off in their first debate September 10th. Another debate between Trump and Harris may take place in October. 

In the six battleground states the Real Clear Politics average of polls has tightened. 

In Arizona, former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Harris by point eight percentage points. Trump’s biggest lead comes in Nevada – where he’s up by 3.5% points. In Georgia, Trump is only up by 0.6% points. Harris leads in Wisconsin by 1% point. Her biggest gain over Trump is in Michigan where she’s up by 2.1% points. In Pennsylvania, it’s close to a tie, where Trump is up by 0.2% points. 

Jack spoke with four delegates from Dallas County who are heading to the convention: Carmen Ayala, Kathy Nealy, Tony Pham, and Jeff Strater. They discussed the messages they would like to hear from Harris and Walz at the convention.

Watch Jack’s conversation with the DNC Delegates below:

Congressman Roger Williams on Trump-Vance message

The Trump-Vance campaign is renewing its focus on inflation, affordability, and border security. 

They continue to criticize Harris for not holding a news conference or doing a formal, sit-down interview. 

Jack spoke with North Texas Congressman Roger Williams, R-25th Congressional District, who chairs the Small Business Committee, about the presidential race. 

Watch Jack’s interview with Congressman Williams below: 

School Choice battle

The controversial policy of taxpayer-funded education savings accounts, ESA’s, or vouchers returned to the Texas Capitol last week. 

The House Public Education Committee held hearings on this and other issues. 

State Representative Brian Harrison, R-Waxahachie strongly favors taxpayer-funded education savings accounts. “I want every parent to have education freedom because I believe every child deserves a quality education and the best way to do that, Texas should make up for being late to school choice by being bold. I want us to have a truly universal education savings account program so that every family has the opportunity to make a choice for their kid.” 

State Representative Mihaela Plesa, D-Plano, disagrees and says some rural Republicans in the Texas House will still join Democrats to try to block any legislation. “They continuously bring up that these voucher scams do not do anything to promote their districts and their schools. One of my colleagues pointed out that he represents almost 19 counties. I might be mistaken, but somewhere around 19 counties. Not one private school in any of those counties.”  

While lawmakers held a hearing, bills will start being filed in November for the next legislative session that begins in January.

State Fair fight over gun policy 

 A legal fight is brewing involving the State Fair of Texas over its new gun free policy. 

The Texas Attorney General sent the city of Dallas a letter last week threatening to sue over the new policy for this year’s event that won’t allow people who have permits to carry concealed firearms to bring them into the State Fair of Texas. 

In a statement, AG Ken Paxton said the policy, “that infringes on LTC holders’ Second Amendment rights is unlawful. Dallas has 15 days to fix the issue, otherwise I will see them in court.” 

The Fair begins September 27. 

Leaders of the fair made the decision in part because there was a shooting there last year that injured three people. 

The only exceptions to the new rule are for active police officers and certain retired officers. 

Some 70 Republican state lawmakers signed a letter and sent it to the State Fair’s Board of Directors urging them to change the policy. 

Representative Harrison was one of them. “Even if the State Fair’s intentions were pure there, it’s just a purely misguided policy. So, I very much hope they overturn it. Look, I’m proud to represent hundreds of thousands of Texans who believe in the Constitution. They believe in the Second Amendment, and they want their families to be protected. The good news is those things go together hand in glove. Even if the State Fair’s purported objective is to maximize safety, what they’ve done is to reduce safety.” 

Representative Plesa supports the State Fair’s new policy. “When I see my colleague sign on to, a letter, you know, condemning the State Fair of Texas for trying to keep their community safe after they saw gun violence in Fair Park, that’s crazy to me. I think that’s why most people are ready for commonsense gun legislation, making sure that people have to do a background check that we don’t have a situation where three people were injured last year.” 

Watch Jack’s interview with Representative Plesa below: 

Watch Jack’s interview with Representative Harrison below: 

City budgets 

Two of the largest cities in North Texas, Dallas and Fort Worth, have proposed budgets for next year. 

In Dallas, Interim City Manager Kimberly Bizor Tolbert proposed a $1.9 billion dollar general fund budget, which is up by more than $65 million dollars from this year’s budget. 

Some highlights include: the largest single year reduction in the property tax rate. It would lower the rate from 73.57 cents per $100 valuation to 70.47 cents per $100 valuation. 

The proposal would also increase the property tax exemption for those 65 and older and the disabled, from $139,400 to $153,400. The city would also hire 250 police recruits and add 63 firefighters and four paramedics. 

In Fort Worth, City Manager David Cooke has proposed a nearly $1.1 billion dollar general fund budget for next year, up $49 million from this year’s budget. 

Cooke said in his proposal that the city’s population could pass the one million mark next year. His budget would increase the property tax rate by half a cent from 67.25 cents per $100 valuation to 67.73 cents per $100 valuation.

In a July interview with Mayor Mattie Parker, she discussed whether Fort Worth could surpass the cities of Austin and Jacksonville in population, and a key element to make that happen. She also discussed the presidential race and U.S. Senate race in Texas.

Watch Jack’s interview with Mayor Parker below: