DALLAS (AP) — Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn is trying to hold on for a fifth term in Tuesday’s GOP primary, while Democrats will choose whether to send Rep. Jasmine Crockett or state Rep. James Talarico to a November general election where the party once again hopes it has a chance.

Texas is one of three states kicking off this year’s midterm elections, a slate of primaries that come as the U.S. and Israel are at war with Iran. The war, which began over the weekend, has killed at least six U.S. service members, spiraled into a regional confrontation as Iran retaliated and sent oil and natural gas prices soaring. President Donald Trump, who campaigned on an isolationist “America First” agenda and went to war without authorization from Congress, faces mounting questions over its rationale and an exit strategy.

Tuesday also is the final day of voting in North Carolina and Arkansas in primaries that mark the start of the 2026 midterms, as Democrats look to break the GOP’s hold on Washington and derail Trump.

Cornyn faces a challenge from MAGA favorite Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, and Rep. Wesley Hunt in a contest that’s expected to advance to a May runoff between the top two vote-getters. The three Republicans have campaigned on their ties to Trump, who has not endorsed in the race.

Crockett and Talarico each argue that they are the stronger general election candidate in a state that backed Trump by almost 14 percentage points in 2024 and where a Democrat hasn’t won a statewide race in over 30 years.

Voters also are choosing House candidates using new congressional district boundaries that GOP lawmakers — urged on by Trump — redrew to help elect more Republicans.

Cornyn fights to hold seat, Crockett and Talarico race for Democrats

Cornyn hopes to avoid becoming the first Republican senator in Texas history not to be renominated.

His cool relationship with Trump is part of why Cornyn is vulnerable. He and allied groups have spent $64 million in television advertising alone since July to try stabilize his support.

Paxton began campaigning in earnest only last month but has made national headlines for filing lawsuits against Democratic initiatives. He has remained popular in Texas despite a 2023 impeachment trial on corruption charges, of which he was acquitted, and accusations of marital infidelity by his wife.

Senate GOP leaders, who are backing Cornyn, worry that Paxton’s liabilities would require the party to spend substantially to defend the seat if he is the nominee — money that could be better used elsewhere.

READ MORE: Lawsuit by Trump ally Paxton asserts unproven claim of autism risk from acetaminophen

Paxton has run ads touting his support from Turning Point USA, the group founded by the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk, as well as Kirk’s praise for Paxton before he was assassinated in September.

Hunt’s entry into the race in October made it trickier for any primary candidate to win at least 50%, the threshold needed to avoid a May 26 runoff.

All three Republicans have run ads boasting of their coziness with Trump.

On the Democratic side, the party’s first major contest of 2026 offers a choice between stylistic opposites as it hungers for its first Senate win in Texas since 1988.

Talarico, a seminarian who often references the Bible, has held rallies across the state including in heavily Republican areas. Crockett, who has built a national profile for zinger attacks on Republicans, has focused on turning out Black voters in the Dallas and Houston areas.

Talarico had outspent Crockett on television advertising by more than four to one as of late February. He got a burst of attention last month from CBS’ decision not to air his interview with late-night host Stephen Colbert. Colbert said the network pulled the interview for fear of running afoul of Trump’s FCC. Talarico’s campaign announced it raised $2.5 million in the 24 hours after the interview — which was streamed online — was pulled from TV.

Key House primaries

Texas Republicans’ unusual, mid-decade redistricting was aimed at helping Trump’s party pick up five Democratic-held seats in an effort to avoid losing control of the House. It set up some intraparty conflicts between Democratic incumbents, and what are expected to be some of November’s most competitive races.

In the 34th District, former Rep. Mayra Flores is attempting a comeback. Flores made history in a 2022 special election as the first Republican to win in the Rio Grande Valley in 150 years, but she lost her bid for a full term later that year. She faces Eric Flores, a lawyer endorsed by Trump, for the nomination to run against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez.

In the 23rd District, Rep. Tony Gonzales is considered vulnerable after fellow Republicans called on him to resign over an affair with a staffer who killed herself. He is being challenged by gun manufacturer and YouTube influencer Brandon Herrera, who calls himself “the AK guy.” The district includes Uvalde, site of a deadly 2022 shooting at Robb Elementary School.

Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw is challenged in the 2nd District by GOP state Rep. Steve Toth, who was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz.

Former Major League Baseball star Mark Teixeira is running in District 21, in southwest Texas, for the seat held by Republican Rep. Chip Roy, who is running for state attorney general. Teixeira, a Republican, played for four MLB teams, including the Texas Rangers and the New York Yankees when they won the 2009 World Series.

Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy winner, is running in South Texas’ 15th District against physician Ada Cuellar. The nominee will face two-term Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz.

In the 33rd District, Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson faces former Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker and 2024 Senate nominee. Johnson, a first-term congresswoman, is seen as vulnerable partly because Allred previously represented part of the district, which weaves through the Dallas and Fort Worth areas. He also retains a national fundraising network from his Senate campaign.

And Democratic Rep. Al Green also is fighting to stay in office after his Houston-based 9th District was drawn to be lean Republican. Green, 78, is now running in a newly drawn 18th District against Democratic Rep. Christian Menefee, 37, who won a January special election for the current 18th District. The new one includes two-thirds of Green’s old district.

Abbott and Hinojosa seem bound to face off for governor, while Roy seeks Paxton’s office

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is running for reelection and faces a likely matchup with Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.

Four-term U.S. Rep. Chip Roy is seeking the GOP nomination for state attorney general, with Paxton running for Senate. Roy has been a prominent member of the conservative Freedom Caucus.

North Texans showed up in greater numbers for early voting in the 2026 midterm primary compared to recent election cycles, with the number of early voters surging across the region’s four largest counties: Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton.

A look at voter turnout from 2018, 2022 and 2026 showed the same pattern each time: more people are taking part, and both parties are seeing increases in turnout.

Data showed that Democrats are making noticeable progress in counties that have traditionally leaned Republican. At the same time, voter registration has grown significantly, giving both sides a larger pool of potential voters.

Data from the Texas Secretary of State were used to compile Election Day totals for 2018 and 2022. For the remaining dates, Early Voting totals were derived from the county websites themselves, including Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, and Denton.

What do the numbers show?

The bigger picture

Across all four counties, the numbers point to a clear trend: voter participation is growing on both sides of the political divide. Early voting is especially strong in 2026, driven by population growth, competitive primaries and heightened political interest.

Although Republicans still dominate turnout in Collin and Denton, Democrats’ early‑voting surges, including taking the lead in Tarrant, suggest that the region’s electoral map continues to evolve.

The full impact will come into focus once Election Day results are final, but for now, 2026 is shaping up to be the most energized North Texas primary in at least a decade.

Primary turnout surges as 2.8 million vote early statewide

Ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, Texas is already seeing what voter data experts are calling a historic primary turnout.

During the 10 days of early voting, roughly 2.8 million people have voted so far in either the Republican or Democratic primary. More people have cast ballots than in any other recent midterm primary, and voter data experts say they expect about the same number of people to show up on Election Day.

The surge appears to be tied, in part, to a highly competitive Democratic primary that voter data analysts say is too close to call based on early vote numbers alone.

Garrett Herrin, CEO of Votehub, said the contest remains exceptionally tight.

“I’m not telling you anything you don’t know, right? But the race is razor thin,” Herrin said.

Herrin said early vote patterns do not show one side dominating geographically, making the outcome difficult to predict.

“There isn’t any sort of dramatic geographic imbalance that clearly signals that one side is running away with it. Instead, turnout looks broad and competitive, and that’s what makes it difficult to call based on early vote data alone,” Herrin said.

County-by-county data compiled by Ryan Data suggested the jump in turnout is not being driven mainly by first-time voters. Instead, analysts said it is coming from voters who typically only participate in November elections but now want a say in the primary.

The data shows 13% of GOP primary voters have only voted in November elections. On the Democratic side, that share is much higher — 28% of early voters in the Democratic primary have only voted in November elections.

Derek Ryan, who compiled the data, said that shift is the defining feature of the race so far.

“Now they’ve decided that, ‘Hey, there’s a contested Senate race in the Democratic primary. Maybe now is the time for me to make my voice heard in that race,’” said Ryan.

Ryan’s data also suggests the age breakdown of early voters has not changed much this year. Just 17% of Republican primary voters are under 50. The Democratic primary electorate is younger, with 41% of early voters so far under the age of 50.

This story was originally reported for broadcast by NBC DFW. AI tools helped convert the story into a digital article, and an NBC DFW journalist edited it again before publication.

One of the two victims in the Austin bar shooting early Sunday has been identified as a Texas Tech University student, according to social media posts from his siblings and from a local politician.

Ryder Harrington, 19, was killed in the shooting that unfolded just outside of a popular beer garden in downtown Austin that also left 14 others injured. The suspect, who was fatally shot by officers, had a history of mental illness, sources familiar with the investigation told NBC News.

“Ryder was the best mix of all the Harrington crew,” his brother, Reed Harrington, wrote on Facebook in a post confirming his death. He said the entire family appreciates the condolences they have received.

Authorities have not yet publicly identified the other victims and are still working to determine a motive in the shooting, including whether it was an act of terrorism. The Austin Police Department is set to have a press conference this afternoon.

“It is unfair, to say the least, that my little brother was only given 19 years on this earth,” Reed Harrington wrote. “Watching the man he had become, and seeing all the lives he touched, leaves me certain that this world was robbed of a great future.”

The brother added, “I don’t think life will ever feel normal again. I have no idea what I’m supposed to do, but I know you will always be there to guide me and be my mentor.”

Harrington’s sister, Reagan Harrington, called him her “best friend” in an Instagram post memorializing him, adding, “I can’t believe you aren’t with me right now.”

“Nothing would be enough to express how special you are to me,” Reagan Harrington wrote. “I’m not sure how we’re meant to work through this — all I can think about is seeing you again.”

Ryan Harrington, the fourth of the siblings, also posted about Harrington’s death on Instagram.

“I’m gonna miss my brother,” Ryan Harrington wrote.

Harrington’s death was also confirmed by his fraternity, Beta Theta Pi. According to the chapter’s Instagram post, Harrington was a part of the Fall 2024 pledge class.

“From the moment he joined our brotherhood, he brought a light that was impossible to ignore,” the Beta Theta Pi post read. “Ryder had a rare ability to truly enjoy life to make people laugh, to make moments feel bigger, and to make ordinary days unforgettable.”

Beta Theta Pi will be hosting a candlelight vigil to honor their brother on Monday at 8 p.m., the post said. The chapter also started a GoFundMe to support Harrington’s family.

Speaker of the Texas state House Dustin Burrows posted about Harrington’s passing on X and said that the teen is the brother-in-law of one of his team members.

“From all accounts, Ryder was exactly the kind of young man who made a difference without even trying — full of life, loyal to his friends, proud to be a Red Raider and a Texan, and someone who showed up for the people around him,” Burrows wrote.

He added that he is praying for the Harrington family and “everyone who loved Ryder — the number appears to be countless.”

Two killed in early Sunday shooting

Harrington was one of two victims killed in the shooting that broke out early Sunday morning outside of Buford’s, a popular beer garden in downtown Austin. The other victim has not yet been identified.

Of the 14 injured, three were taken to the hospital in critical condition, said Robert Luckritz, chief of the county’s emergency medical services. Their conditions were not immediately available as of Monday.

The shooter has been identified as 53-year-old Ndiaga Diagne. Officers shot and killed him shortly after the attack, police said.

Diagne was a Senegalese national and a naturalized U.S. citizen living in Pflugerville, Texas, four law enforcement officials told NBC News. At the time of the shooting, he wore a sweatshirt that said “Property of Allah,” and a shirt underneath bearing an Iranian-flag theme.

Diagne appeared to have acted alone and had no ties to the state, according to sources who emphasized that the investigation is in its preliminary stages.

A Homeland Security official told NBC News that Diagne first entered the U.S. on March 13, 2000, on a B-2 tourist visa. He became a lawful permanent resident in 2006 based on marriage to a U.S. citizen and a naturalized citizen in 2013, the official said. He was arrested in 2022 in Texas for a collision with vehicle damage, the official said.

On Sunday, Alex Doran, a special agent with the San Antonio FBI field office, said, “There were indicators that on the subject and in his vehicle that indicate potential nexus to terrorism,” but noted that it is “still too early to make a determination on that.”

Austin Police Chief Lisa Davis said at a news conference Sunday that Diagne may have circled Buford’s in his car before rolling his window down, striking patrons on the bar’s front patio using a pistol.

He then parked the car, got out holding a rifle, and shot people who were walking by, Davis said. Officers encountered the man along West Sixth Street, which is when they shot him.

Buford’s is 2 miles from the heart of the University of Texas at Austin campus and less than a mile from the Texas Capitol Building.

Other Texas officials offered their prayers and condolences for the victims, including Gov. Greg Abbott, who warned anyone who “thinks about using the current conflict in the Middle East to threaten Texans.”

He appeared to be talking about the joint military operations of the U.S. and Israeli governments against Iran, which killed the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.