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Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins, and why?

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Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction: Who wins, and why?


SEC football is back this weekend as No. 4 Tennessee hits the road a second-straight week in a matchup against Arkansas in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday night. Let’s check in with our latest prediction for the game.

Arkansas is 12 combined points away from being undefeated, holding leads against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, but ultimately losing those games as a result of ill-timed ball security issues and some offensive mistakes, resulting in a 3-2 mark.

Tennessee is angling for an SEC title and more, sitting at 4-0 behind the nation’s No. 1 ranked total defense, 1 of 2 teams to allow under 200 yards per game and under 800 yards total this season.

What can we make of the matchup?

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Here’s what you should watch out for as Arkansas hosts Tennessee in this Week 6 college football game with our updated prediction.

1. Hogs on the ground. Utah transfer back Ja’Quinden Jackson has been key to the Razorbacks’ offense, running for more than 100 yards in his first 3 games, and he leads the SEC with 509 rushing yards and is second with 9 touchdowns. 

Tennessee is 2nd in FBS against the run, allowing just under 51 yards per game on the ground. And while Jackson is 1 of 3 SEC backs to average more than 100 yards per game, his output against conference teams is limited, averaging 56 yards despite playing against 2 of the league’s worst run defense teams.

2. Turnovers. Arkansas has suffered some very badly-timed turnovers this season, as quarterback Taylen Green threw a pick-six that allowed Oklahoma State to mount a comeback, and he threw another pick and then fumbled late in regulation last week. 

The Hogs are 89th in turnover margin and are second-worst in the SEC with 9 giveaways. The Vols have recovered 5 fumbles this season, and have forced 3 takeaways in their last three 3 games away from Rocky Top.

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3. At the line. Stopping the run is Arkansas’ strength on defense thus far behind a decent front seven rotation, ranking 21st in FBS by allowing just 93 yards per game rushing.

Tennessee is 4th nationally with 290 rushing yards per game and lead back Dylan Sampson is averaging more than 112 yards himself and is 1 of 2 backs in the country with 10 rushing touchdowns.

Most analytical models favor the Volunteers against the Razorbacks in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is projected to win the game in the majority 82.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

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That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in the remaining 17.9 percent of sims.

Tennessee is projected to be 14 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More … Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction: What the analytics say

Tennessee is a 13.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 56.5 points for the game.

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And it listed the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -525 and for Arkansas at +400 to win outright.

A decent majority of bets are projecting the Vols will get the better of the Hogs.

About 58 percent of bettors are expecting that Tennessee will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 42 percent of wagers suggest that Arkansas will either win in an upset, or, more likely, will keep the game under two touchdowns.

There isn’t a phase in this game where Tennessee’s defense should be at any major disadvantage, especially when generating pressure from the nucleus of this unit, its elite front seven rotation.

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And while Arkansas has struggled in pass protection during stretches this season, it is a relative strength when blocking for the run, resulting in the team’s strong rushing numbers to date.

The presence of mobile quarterback Taylen Green is a plus, as he can spice up the offense with a battery of scripted and unscripted runs to throw tacklers out of place, even if there are times when he forces a play that results in a turnover.

His scrambles and Jackson’s physical rushing style will find the Vols’ tacklers on the back foot often enough to keep it close, but the Razorbacks do have one marked weakness for UT to exploit.

Arkansas is third-worst in the SEC in pass defense, allowing just under 227 passing yards per game, and that’s despite playing against some substandard passing offenses so far.

Nico Iamaleava and Tennessee’s superb skill threats are another animal, and this feels like the game where Josh Heupel opens up the playbook a little more.

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College Football HQ picks …

More … Tennessee vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Titans QB Fortunate to Keep Job

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Titans QB Fortunate to Keep Job


The Tennessee Titans are 1-3 in the first quarter of the season, and their lone win came in Week 4 on Monday Night Football against the Miami Dolphins.

In the game, Will Levis started, but he threw his sixth interception of the young season on his first drive and was injured on his second drive with a bum shoulder. This led backup Mason Rudolph into the game, where he led the Titans to their first 30-point scoring game in over two years, and more importantly, a win.

Even though Levis crumbled and Rudolph had success, the Titans are going to turn back towards their original starting quarterback when he gets healthy again.

Bleacher Report writer Alex Ballentine says that Levis is lucky to still have the starting job.

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“Will Levis is fortunate to continue as the team’s starting quarterback when he routinely makes questionable decisions and Mason Rudolph led the team to its only win,” Ballentine writes.

It isn’t all a coincidence that the Titans starting performing well when Levis was sidelined. The Titans lead the NFL in turnovers so far this season with nine, and a majority of them have been coughed up as a result of Levis’ poor choices.

Levis is still a young quarterback with only 13 career starts over his first two seasons, so the Titans are being extremely patient with him, especially knowing what he can do with his arm strength.

However, it is going to get to a point where the Titans begin to prioritize winning over development, and unless Levis changes his tune in the next couple of weeks, Tennessee may look to move on to Rudolph to see if his management of the offense in the Dolphins game was a fluke or a sign that he should be the one under center moving forward.

Make sure you bookmark Tennessee Titans on SI for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns and so much more!

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‘That’s a really bad idea’ | Tennessee Attorney General voices strong warning for businesses price gouging victims

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‘That’s a really bad idea’ | Tennessee Attorney General voices strong warning for businesses price gouging victims


KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WVLT) – Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti told WVLT News his office had already received reports of price gouging in the wake of flooding caused by rains from what was once Hurricane Helene.

“The companies that we’ve reached out to by in large have been accommodating. They don’t want to be seen as hurting consumers so it’s all about holding them accountable but we need information to do that,” Skrmetti said.

Skrmetti said water, gas, propane, and lodging were the things his office had been notified were possibly being increased above a reasonable price.

According to a release from the office, price gouging is defined as businesses charging a price that is grossly in excess of the price generally charged for the goods or services.

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The AG’s office listed items that qualify under the law.

“Any essential item effectively is covered. It also covers lodging and gasoline. So all the things that people absolutely need. These are not luxuries, these are things they need to live, to survive,” Skrmetti said. “They are protected and we want to use our enforcement authority in my office to the fullest extent we can to make sure everybody is getting a reasonable deal at a time when they have nothing.”

  • “Repair or construction services,” which means services performed by any person for repairs to residential or commercial property of any type that is damaged as a result of a disaster or terrorist attack;
  • “Emergency supplies,” including water, flashlights, radios, batteries, candles, blankets, soap, diapers, temporary shelters, tape, toiletries, plywood, nails, and hammers;
  • “Medical supplies” including prescription and nonprescription medications, bandages, gauze, isopropyl alcohol, and antibacterial products;
  • “Consumer food items,” which means any article that is used or intended for use for food, drink, confection, or condiment by a person or animal;
  • “Building Materials” which means lumber, construction tools, windows, and anything else used in the building or rebuilding of property;
  • “Gasoline” which means any fuel used to power any motor vehicle or power tool;
  • “Transportation, freight, and storage services,” which means any service that is performed by any company that contracts to move, store, or transport personal or business property or rents equipment for those purposes;
  • “Housing” which means any rental housing leased on a month-to-month term; and
  • “Temporary healthcare staffing provided by a temporary healthcare staffing agency.

He doubled down on his thoughts about businesses finding ways to help their community and voiced strong opposition to those who may take the disaster as a moment to line their pockets.

Skrmetti encouraged consumers to reach out to his office with complaints, saying they looked into putting agents on the ground but aired against doing that out of fear additional people in an already chaotic space would work against recovery efforts.



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Titans Defense Struggling in One Key Area

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Titans Defense Struggling in One Key Area


The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the fewest yards through four games so far in the NFL season, and yet, the team is just 1-3 in the standings.

Sure, the offense has hindered the team a bit, especially in the turnover department, but the defense isn’t forcing turnovers, and that is also an underlying issue the team has to face during the bye week.

“The Titans’ defense didn’t force a turnover until Monday night’s win in Miami and have only forced one this season. Defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson brought an extreme focus on takeaways with him when he took the job. As secondary coach, Wilson’s units helped the Bears tie for second with 18 interceptions last season and the Eagles tie for third with 17 in 2022. Usually, teams produce what they emphasize. Wilson preaches “attacking the ball with aggressiveness” and “populating to the football.” But that hasn’t happened so far. Tennessee’s defense is last in the NFL with a minus-8 turnover ratio,” ESPN insider Turron Davenport writes.

The lack of forcing turnovers has been an issue that defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson has stressed before, but it has yet to be resolved.

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Not having Jeffery Simmons active for the team’s Week 4 win against the Miami Dolphins may have been part of the reason, but other playmakers on the defense have to step up and make bold, aggressive plays.

The one takeaway the Titans have this season came on a poorly-thrown backwards pass from Dolphins quarterback Tyler Huntley that was almost gifted to Tennessee.

If the Titans want to get better on the defensive side of the ball, they simply have to be more aggressive. If they can do that after the bye, more wins could come their way, beginning with their Week 6 battle against the Indianapolis Colts.

Make sure you bookmark Tennessee Titans on SI for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns and so much more!



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