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Tennessee population could hit 8 million in two decades. What it could mean for the state’s biggest cities

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Tennessee population could hit 8 million in two decades. What it could mean for the state’s biggest cities


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Tennessee’s population is expected to reach nearly 8 million in less than two decades. According to the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee is expected to be home to 7.94 million residents by 2040 — that’s a 13% increase from the 2022 population of 7.05 million, for which data is most recently available.

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Between 2020 and 2030, Tennessee is projected to experience an annual population growth rate of 0.82%, an increase of approximately 600,000 people. According to the data, that’s 35,000 more people than were added between 2010 and 2020. A period of steady but smaller population gains will follow and is expected to continue through 2070, when the population is expected to reach 9,250,000.

“At the state level, the amount of population growth during the 2020s will feel similar to the gains we saw last decade,” said Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and co-author of the findings. “But as the baby boom generation reaches the later stages of life, a rising number of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population increases.”

Per university research, older adults are expected to experience the highest population increase of all the age groups. The Volunteer State is also expected to grow more racially and ethnically diverse.

Here’s how else Tennessee is expected to grow at both the local and state level.

Which Tennessee cities grew the most? See how population shifted according to the U.S. Census

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A growing population of older adults

By 2040, almost 20% of the state’s population is expected to be aged 65 and older. According to research, that’s a 17% increase and a growth of 306,000 people from 2022. By 2040, people between 65-74 (815,120) will be the dominant age group among older adults, following behind will be people between 75-84 (506,795) and finally people 85 and over (204,895).

According to Harris, a growing population of older adults will not only affect the health care system, but will also increase the need for more housing, transportation and other types of personal care throughout the decades.

Age groups younger than 65 are also expected to grow, however, those populations will grow at a much smaller rate. For example, populations between 25-52 are expected to grow by 11%, while populations under 20 are expected to grow just by 2%.

A more racially and ethnically diverse Tennessee

More than half of the state’s projected population growth can be attributed to Hispanics, Black or African Americans or people who are of other races or more than one race.

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The largest increase will be among Hispanics, who will see an increase from approximately 450,000 in 2022to 754,000 over the next 20 years — a 6.4% increase. By 2040, the Hispanic population is expected to make up 10% of Tennessee residents. Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native American populations will see a similar increase, growing from 307,00 to 470,000 by 2040.

While populations of Black and white Tennesseans are expected to grow as well, the share of the state’s population that is white or Black will decrease. The Black population will decrease from 16.4% to 15.4% and the white population will decrease from 73% to 69% by 2040.

How will the Nashville area population change compared to other Tennessee cities?

The Nashville Metro Statistical Area, which includes Davidson, Murfreesboro and Franklin, is projected to see a 28% growth rate in 2040, bringing the total population to 2,642,779.

The Knoxville area will experience an 11% increase in 2040 bringing its total population to 1,038,122. The Chattanooga area is projected to experience a 13% increase in 2040, bringing the total population 474,768. On the other hand, the Memphis area is projected to experience a 3.4% decrease in population, lowering its 2040 population to 986, 741.

Methodology

The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research developed its population estimates using a cohort component model. Projections were conducted at the county level for each combination of race, sex and age, using internal data well as from the United States Census Bureau and the Tennessee Department of Health.

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In order to determine individual areas’ population by race, sex and age for each year, information about birth rates, deathr rates and net migration was factored.

To learn more about the methodology, visit tnsdc.utk.edu.

Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana



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How much have Tennessee gas prices risen amid war in Iran?

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How much have Tennessee gas prices risen amid war in Iran?


Gas prices on March 5 have gone up 27 cents in both the U.S., and in Tennessee compared to one week ago, which likely relates to the war in Iran, according to AAA – The Auto Club Group.

The national average for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is $3.25. Tennessee’s average on March 5 is $2.84, according to AAA.

The last time the national average made a similar weekly jump was back in March of 2022 during the start of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, AAA said.

“Oil prices are rising largely due to growing instability in a region that is essential to global energy markets,” AAA spokesperson Megan Cooper said. “Although the U.S. does not import oil from Iran, the country remains a major producer, supplying nations such as China and India. Any potential disruption to Iranian oil infrastructure can influence global supply expectations.”

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Middle Tennessee county averages include:

  • Davidson County: $2.90
  • Williamson County: $3.12
  • Rutherford County: $2.87
  • Wilson County: $2.88
  • Sumner County: $2.89
  • Robertson County: $2.90
  • Cheatham County: $2.92
  • Maury County: $2.85.

Crude oil pricing correlates to about 60% of what consumers pay at the pump, Cooper said. Recent global tensions tied to the conflict with Iran are adding upward pressure on crude oil prices, according to AAA. 

Also, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical connection for the Persian Gulf to open waters as a shipping lane for crude oil. Because oil is traded globally, a shortfall in one region can impact prices throughout the world.

Tennessee and the southeast portion of the U.S. consistently rank among the least expensive markets for fuel. Proximity to refineries and pipeline infrastructure are major reasons for less expensive gas, according to AAA.

Tennessee is currently the fourth least expensive market in the U.S. for gas. The last time Tennessee’s average was over $3 per gallon for regular unleaded gas was August 2024.

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Refineries are also starting the process of producing summer-blend gasoline. which contains additives to help reduce evaporation during warmer months and adds to the cost. Gas demand generally increases with the spring break season and the expectation of more road trips.

Disclaimer: This story was created by reporter Andy Humbles at ahumbles@tennessean.com, with the assistance of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Journalists were involved in every step of information gathering, review, editing and publishing.

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Tennessee Football 2028 In-State CB Target Jermaine Cobbins Talks Recruitment

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Tennessee Football 2028 In-State CB Target Jermaine Cobbins Talks Recruitment


One of the nation’s fast-rising 7v7 events made it back to the Atlanta area as The Sevens 7v7 tournament was held at Peachtree Ridge High School over the weekend.

Many of the top organizations across the country registered and entered the tournament such as Hustle INC, C1N, NPA, 24K Cold Hearts, and Fast Houston.

The amount of star power each brand displayed with many of the top athletes from all of the country was insane to fathom.

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One of the nation’s coveted 2028 cornerbacks was in attendance as Jermaine Cobbins and NPA showed up on a mission.

NPA earned the number 1 seed during pool play on the first day of the event. The team fell just short of the championship game, but the players went down swinging.

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Vols on SI caught up with Cobbins to discuss any recruiting updates, and to shed light on an off-field story that deserves some attention.

Jermaine Cobbins Update

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2028 Springfield (TN) cornerback Jermaine Cobbins | Dale Dowden- Vols on SI

“The recruitment is going great,” Cobbins said.

“You know, a lot of teams are showing love,” Cobbins continued. Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M were a few schools mentioned to be showing a lot of love to the Tennessee native.

Cobbins has plans to get on the road once dead period is over.

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March 2- Auburn
March 6- USC (potentially)
March 13- Alabama
March 17- Georgia
March 19- Tennessee
March 21- Vanderbilt

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As Cobbins is wrapping up his sophomore year and on his way to becoming a junior, the pace will pick up as schools will come on stronger as some will fall back. The talented defender has to check boxes of his on while spending time with each school.

“The main thing I’ll be looking for is probably how much love are they going to be showing, their background (track record), and how the coaches coach,” Cobbins explained.

With a visit to Rocky Top in a few weeks looming, this will be the first time Cobbins has made it to Tennessee since the staff changes on the defense.

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Cobbins had a relationship with Coach Michael Hunter Jr., who joined the Volunteers staff for a very short time before taking an opportunity in the NFL.

“Me and the corners coach had a great relationship, he came (to UT) but he left out for the NFL, so kudos to him. Love that for him. I’ve met Coach Poindexter. He’s a great coach,” Cobbins said.

The coaching staff at Tennessee stands out to the Springfield (TN) student-athlete as, “they coach at a high level.” Cobbins would go on to describe how the Vols pulling in great talent truly has an impact because you get to practice against some talented players day in and day out.

Cobbins Gives Back

Cobbins recently had the opportunity to give back to the next generation, and it was no surprise to see this act carried out, so Vols on SI had to ask about this act of kindness before concluding the interview.

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“That was very important (to me), you know. It just really made me feel good inside. I always love giving back to the little kids, especially from my hometown,” Cobbins said with a smile.

Cobbins understands the small-town life, and how such a simple gesture can make a huge difference. Talent aside, this is an A+ young man.

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Vanderbilt Basketball Guard Leaves Program Ahead of Tennessee Matchup – Knoxville Today

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Vanderbilt Basketball Guard Leaves Program Ahead of Tennessee Matchup – Knoxville Today


Published on Mar. 4, 2026

Vanderbilt basketball guard Frankie Collins is leaving the program, head coach Mark Byington announced on Tuesday night. The news comes just days before the Commodores are set to face off against Tennessee in the regular season finale, with the Volunteers looking to clinch a top-four seed and double-bye in the SEC Tournament.

Why it matters

Collins was Vanderbilt’s most highly touted transfer last offseason, but injuries limited him to just nine games this season. His departure leaves the Commodores shorthanded heading into a crucial matchup against their in-state rival Tennessee, who are seeking to complete a regular season sweep.

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The details

The 6-foot-1 guard averaged 7.8 points, 4.7 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game this season, but suffered a meniscus injury in December that sidelined him for the majority of the year. With the emergence of sophomore point guard Tyler Tanner and Oklahoma transfer Duke Miles, Collins never quite found his footing in the Vanderbilt lineup.

  • Frankie Collins left the Vanderbilt program on Tuesday, March 4, 2026.
  • Vanderbilt is scheduled to face Tennessee on Saturday, March 8, 2026.

The players

Frankie Collins

A 6-foot-1 guard who was Vanderbilt’s most highly touted transfer last offseason, coming to Nashville after spending the 2024-25 season at TCU and the three prior years at Arizona State and Michigan.

Mark Byington

The head coach of the Vanderbilt Commodores basketball team.

Tyler Tanner

The sophomore point guard who emerged as a key player for Vanderbilt this season.

Duke Miles

An Oklahoma transfer shooting guard who joined the Vanderbilt roster this season.

Rick Barnes

The head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers basketball team.

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What they’re saying

“Frankie has left Nashville, and he’s not gonna be on the team. It’s gonna be good for both sides of it. We wish him well. So we’ll roll with the guys we got.”

— Mark Byington, Head Coach, Vanderbilt Commodores (rockytopinsider.com)

What’s next

With a victory over Vanderbilt, Tennessee will clinch a top four-seed and a double-bye in next week’s SEC Tournament. Vanderbilt could potentially earn a double-bye themselves with a win and a little extra help.

The takeaway

The loss of Frankie Collins leaves Vanderbilt shorthanded heading into a crucial matchup against in-state rival Tennessee, who are seeking to complete a regular season sweep. The Commodores will have to rely on the emergence of players like Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles to try and pull off the upset and keep their own postseason hopes alive.

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