Tennessee
Real estate outlook for 2025: What Tennessee homebuyers can expect
Homebuyers hold out for interest rate relief
For the first time in six weeks, mortgage rates are leveling off.
Fox – Seattle
After a year of high interest rates, many homeowners and homebuyers are wondering what the market will look like in 2025.
Realtor.com, one of the top real estate listing websites in the United States, released its predictions for how the housing market will look in 2025.
It doesn’t look like mortgage rates will return to the pre-pandemic 4% average any time soon. Thus, it is possible we will see similar trends to 2024 in a lack of homes for sale and home buyers, but that’s not what the organization is predicting for Tennessee and most of the South.
Here’s what Tennesseans can expect in 2025 from the real estate market.
Are housing prices in 2025 expected to increase or decrease?
The organization is predicting that home prices will grow about 3.7% in 2025 as they are predicting mortgage rates to be slightly lower than in 2024 with an average monthly rate of 6.3%.
“Mortgage rates are expected to keep mortgage payments essentially unchanged in 2025 despite continued home price growth,” the analysis wrote.
It’s likely that home sellers will still have the advantage over home buyers in 2025 with limited inventory and strong demands in high traffic areas. However, high interest rates could lead to fewer buyers being able to afford homes.
Buyers should expect a less competitive market than in past years, but it will be one that is still costly from high mortgage rates and home prices.
Will there be more homes sold in 2025 than in 2024?
Homeownership rate is expected to drop by 0.3% between 2024 and 2025 from 65.6% to 65.3%. Despite this, existing home sales are expected to increase 1.5% to 4.07 million. The inventory of existing homes for sale is also expected to be 11.7% higher in 2025 than in 2024.
Much of home buying and selling depends on mortgage rates as seen in September 2024. During this time, mortgage rates dropped to 6.08%. The following month brought the largest number of active homes for sale in the U.S. housing market since December 2019, according to Realtor.com.
What will the Tennessee housing market look like in 2025?
Realtor.com broke its predictions down into metro areas. In last year’s analysis for Tennessee, there were losses in sales growth from 2023 to 2024, but for the 2025 year-over-year stats, there were only increases in sales price. Similarly, price growth is on the rise across the state’s metropolitan areas with a minimum increase of 6.3%.
| Metro | 2025 Sales Growth y/y | 2025 Price Growth y/y |
| Chattanooga | 2.2% | 6.3% |
| Knoxville | 3.7% | 8.3% |
| Memphis | 8.3% | 10.5% |
| Nashville | 4.5% | 8.3% |
What will the rental market look like in 2025?
New multifamily units are being built at an increased rate which pushed the rental vacancy up to 6.9% in 2024, but this doesn’t mean prices on rentals will come down either. The median asking rent in 2025 is expected to be 0.1% lower than in 2024, indicating that affordability will continue to be a challenge for many.
The organization is predicting the South’s lower-cost housing will continue to attract people in 2025 with the lack of change in rental prices. It is predicted the South will continue to see a 1.5% growth in rental stocks, the highest of any regional market.
What are the predictions for first-time homebuyers in 2025?
Unfortunately for first time home buyers, 2025 may not be your year as mortgage rates are not expected to change much next year. In 2024, there was an average mortgage rate of 6.7% for the year, and Realtor.com is predicting a 6.3% average rate in 2025.
In 2024, first-time homebuyers were a record low share of homebuyers, facing high costs for buying relative to renting, historically high home equity among repeat buyers, and a pickup in investor market share.
As the homeownership rate is expected to drop a little, it may not be the year to buy a first home for many.
Tennessee
What Nashville’s top ‘Emerging Trends’ ranking means for the city’s growth | Opinion
People want to move to Nashville and Middle Tennessee, and the region continues to experience rapid growth. But challenges remain, along with the opportunity to shape its development.
How can Nashville area balance low taxes, growth and quality services?
The 14-county region in the Nashville area grew by more than 3,000 people a month from 2010 to 2020. This growth brings opportunities and challenges.
Wochit
The Urban Land Institute and PwC recently released the 47th annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate® report and for the eleventh year, Nashville made the top ten “markets to watch” this year at number six.
Nashvillians don’t need a report to alert them that Nashville and Middle Tennessee continue to grow and develop at an astonishing rate, for an incredibly long run. We see the cranes, carefully make our way through construction zones, meet new neighbors and co-workers, and marvel (and sometimes mutter) at new offices, residential developments, hotels, retail and restaurants.
The challenges that come with Nashville’s continued growth
So, what does the Emerging Trends Report tell us?
First, while Nashville’s growth may appear to be going like gangbusters, there is significant uncertainty facing those who invest in development, as well as the architects, engineers, developers, construction workers, and many others involved in creating new development. The report notes several issues. All of which are present in Nashville, including the following:
- Economic and financial issues, such as interest rates and the cost of capital, concerns about job and income growth, and, of course, inflation.
- Issues specific to development, including the cost and availability of labor; federal, state and local regulations and where they conflict; and increasing operating costs driven by tariffs and inflation.
- Finally, social and political issues impacting development include immigration policy, which affects both the workforce and demand for new development; the cost and availability of housing; and the divide between political parties.
What Nashville and Middle Tennessee have going for them
Second, the report highlights why Nashville again made the top ten — what trends, decisions and investments we have going for us. As the report notes, demand for new homes, offices, industrial and retail spaces is driven by demographics, immigration and domestic migration.
The Sun Belt, and Nashville in particular, continues to be welcoming for jobs and residents. While many Sun Belt cities have seen their 2021-2022 migration slow significantly, Nashville and Middle Tennessee continue to experience strong domestic migration.
Why?
Nashville and Middle Tennessee are known for having both a moderate climate and a welcoming regulatory and tax environment. We boast access to the Southeast and the country. We have a trained workforce and a number of colleges and universities educating the next generation. We’re also known for valuing creativity and being welcoming. For all these reasons and more, we continue to draw new residents, which drives growth.
We know, then, that Nashville and Middle Tennessee continuously rank highly for both investment and development, and we have some ideas on why.
The connection between growth and quality of life
But what does this mean for our city?
Investment, development and growth impact all Nashvillians and Middle Tennesseans. On a very basic level, these are jobs. Jobs in investing, building, using and re-using buildings. Each of these jobs pays our neighbors, who invest their wages back into Nashville through restaurants, stores, services and other local businesses, creating even more jobs.
Growth leads to quality of life, but not only in a physical way.
Do you like the building? Does it feel welcoming? Does it add to the neighborhood?
But growth also improves quality of life as it circulates wages, creates demand for new jobs, and adds to the city’s coffers to buy services such as parks, libraries, fire stations and police departments that we value.
Meanwhile, how we undertake investment, development and growth also impacts each of us. Our city has had recent, sometimes tough, conversations on investing in transportation and transit. We’ve discussed whether to allow new types of housing to address our housing shortage. We’ve considered how to invest in aging infrastructure as we serve current residents and accommodate new residents and businesses.
What Nashville’s ranking really means and the work ahead
As the executive director of ULI Nashville, representing our 1,100+ members in all disciplines related to land use and development, I am thrilled that Nashville once again made the top ten “markets to watch” across the US in the Emerging Trends in Real Estate®. I’m happy about what it signals for our members, especially in a moment like 2025, when there is a lot of uncertainty.
But I am more focused on what the ranking means — what Nashville’s strength means — for how ULI Nashville, our partners and Nashvillians can work together to harness and shape growth in our city.
A high ranking feels validating, but we all know that maintaining this pace of growth — while trying to preserve our welcoming culture, watch out for our neighbors and consider what changes are coming and how we can prepare — is a challenge.
ULI Nashville and its members are here to be partner. We want to connect, inspire and lead. We are bringing our perspective to the tough conversations about how we grow and strengthen Nashville. The Emerging Trends in Real Estate® report is just the beginning. The real work is in conversations on mobility, housing, infrastructure and creating places Nashvillians deserve.
Jennifer Carlat is the executive director of ULI Nashville, A trusted convener, collaborator communicator and educator of best practices on all aspects of city building.
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