CHARLESTON COUNTY, S.C. (WCIV) — A special election in Tennessee may serve as a bellwether for the future of South Carolina’s most competitive congressional district heading into 2026.

Like several elections held this year, the Tennessee special election for the U.S. House shifted toward the Democratic Party when compared to the 2024 election. Matt Van Epps, a President Donald Trump-backed Republican, won by nine percentage points in a district the president carried by 22 points last fall. It marked a 13-point swing toward the Democrats, who were in the wilderness for months following Trump’s return to Washington.

In South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, widely considered an R+6, according to the Cook Political Report, it presents a unique opportunity for the party that held the seat from 2019 to 2021.

“The lesson from New Jersey, Virginia and now Tennessee is unmistakable,” said Mac Deford, one of the Democrats running for the party’s nomination in the district. “When Democrats center the issues that matter most to working families, we win.”

READ MORE | “Republican candidate Matt Van Epps wins Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.”

Similar to Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election, an incumbent will not be on the ballot. U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace has started her campaign for governor of South Carolina, leaving the seat up for grabs.

Several candidates have already jumped into the race. Republicans include Dorchester County Councilmember Jay Byars; Beaufort County Councilmember Logan Cunningham; Republican state Rep. Mark Smith of Mount Pleasant; Air Force veteran Alex Pelbath; former doctor Sam McCown; and Justin Myers, a Navy veteran.

Deford and Mayra Rivera-Vazquez are the two Democrats who have declared they are running thus far.

Working in favor of Democrats is Trump’s broad disapproval among the American electorate. The president’s approval rating sits at 36%, the lowest of his second term, while disapproval has risen to 60%, according to a new Gallup poll.

READ MORE | “Trump claims Tennessee Republicans’ win is ‘great night’ for GOP.”

Additionally, the president’s party almost always loses ground in midterm House elections, as has happened in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections stretching back to 1938.

“The Democratic Party is organizing and connecting with a big coalition of voters who are now looking for real solutions on the issues,” Rivera-Vazquez said. “The fact that Tennessee was competitive is a good example that the same thing can happen in our district. This is a good opportunity for us. The Republican Congress has abdicated its responsibility. You see the results in these elections.”

In Tennessee, the 13-point swing toward Democrats was actually the smallest of the five congressional special elections held this year outside a major election day. Arizona’s 7th Congressional District swung 17 points. Virginia’s 11th Congressional District shifted 16. In both of those elections, a Democrat won.

Florida’s 1st Congressional District saw a 23-point swing, and Florida’s 6th Congressional District moved 16 points toward Democrats.

The generic ballot shows Democrats sitting at +5, according to polling averages from RealClear Polling.

Each election is different, but if the trend continues, South Carolina Democrats appear bullish on reclaiming a seat that hasn’t really been competitive since the boundaries were redrawn.

“What happened in Tennessee makes it clear: Democrats are on offense and Republicans are on the ropes,” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in a statement. “Democrats are all gas and no brakes as we head into next year.”

LANDRUM, S.C. (FOX Carolina) – A critical scholarship program for over 50,000 children across South Carolina was cut on Dec. 1 as the South Carolina Department of Social Services (DSS) temporarily paused applications to their Working Families Child Care Scholarship Program.

The pause is leaving some parents begging leaders to see past the paperwork and understand the human impact.

“I just hope the people who are in control of all this can actually look at who it is affecting. It’s not just money given out, it’s not just a number, it’s real, live human people,” said Kayla Stivers, a parent affected by the pause.

Single mother Stivers said the Working Families Childcare Scholarship has changed her life. She has two children, works full-time time and goes to school.

“This is my livelihood. It’s my friends’ livelihood,” Stivers said. “I want to give the absolute best for my children as I possibly can, and this voucher helps.”

The recent pause in the childcare scholarship will soon leave her and her children without this assistance.

“Right now, I’m at the point where I have to start thinking about what I’m going to cut come February. If it’s going to be the sports that they’re in, it’s going to affect them majorly,” Stivers said.

DSS did not say how long they are pausing new applications, only that it is temporary. The department said the federal funding they have been using for the vouchers ran out last year and the government shutdown delayed additional funding they are still receiving.

Miss Tammy’s Little Learning Center said a majority of children they care for use this state scholarship program. They are anticipating 66% of their families will lose the scholarship in the coming months.

“Families are stressed. It’s going to affect not just families, it’s going to affect the childcare industry, it’s going to affect the working industry. It’s going to be a major ordeal,” said Thomas Compton, region director for Miss Tammy’s Little Learning Center.

The Spartanburg County First Steps Program called Quality Counts explained the pause on this funding is also impacting dozens of childcare centers across the county and could leave a ripple effect impacting children, parents and businesses.

“The only way to help prevent this is to get the people in power to talk about this and be aware of it and to know the facts,” said Cathleen Cullen, assistant director of Spartanburg County First Steps Quality Counts Program.

DSS has requested $20 million in state funds for 2026 through 2027 for this issue, but there is no word yet on where those funds stand.

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