North Carolina
Poll: Lawfare backfiring on Biden in North Carolina, Trump stays strong
RALEIGH, N.C., June 18, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Former President Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden in the Tarheel state, as efforts to convict and possibly imprison the former President appear to be backfiring on N.C. Democrats, according to a new poll of 600 likely general election voters conducted by Spry Strategies from June 7 – June 11. Spry employs a hybrid method that combines multiple data collection methods: IVR, Live Landline & Online Mobile. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results are weighted. Some percentages in crosstab reports for this poll may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Trump leads Biden in a head-to-head matchup by 4% with 48% indicating they will vote for Trump with 44 % indicating they plan to vote for Biden. 8.5% are undecided. Trump’s lead expands when independent Robert F. Kennedy is included with 45% indicating they will support Trump, 37% favoring Biden and 8% Kennedy. The Kennedy campaign has submitted signatures in effort to qualify for the North Carolina ballot and the signature drive is under review by the Democratic party-controlled North Carolina Board of Elections.
The Spry results are similar to other recent polls. Currently, Trump is leading in the Real Clear Politics avg of NC polls by 5.3%. Biden has not led a public North Carolina poll since March of 2023.
57% of North Carolina voters disapprove of the job President Biden is doing, with half of all NC voters strongly disapproving.
Asked to reflect on Mr. Trump’s time as President, 52% of voters indicated they approve of the job he did as President while 46% disapprove.
Interesting that of the Trump supporters, 79% say they voted for Trump in 2016 and/or 2020. However, 14% said they recently became a Trump supporter “because of the sad state of the nation under Joe Biden. 1.6% of Trump supporters said they were “anti-Trump until the weaponization of the Justice system” was used against him.
Biden weak with his own party
Trump is commanding a full 85% of Republicans while Biden is only winning 71% of self-identified Democrats.
Trump support among African Americans, and youth rises
Joe Biden is currently attracting less than half of African American voters (49%) with Trump attracting 23% and RFK 20%.
“Former President Trump continues to show historic strength with African-Americans, who normally fall into the Democratic camp,” said Spry Strategies President, Ryan Burrell. “We know this not only because of our survey results along with others, but the recent actions of the Biden campaign clearly show they are worried about this problematic trend. Trump’s incredible support in NC with African Americans could help Mark Robinson, and Mark Robinson may be responsible for some of the Trump’s historic support with this crucial demographic.”
Biden continues to struggle with key age groups. The only age group Biden is currently winning is the youth vote. (18-34)
Biden leads Trump 38% to 34%, a historically small margin for Democrats. RFKJ is pulling 15%.
Trump leads every other age group.
35-54 — Trump 50%, Biden 33%, RFK 9%
55-64 — Trump 49%, Biden 36%, RFK 3%
65-Up — Trump 44%, Biden 41%, RFK 3%
When voters were asked whether “their families economic security and personal safety was better under Biden or Trump,” half of voters said Trump while only 35% said Biden. 10% of Democrats say that their situation was better under Trump. Half of independent/unaffiliated voters say life was better under Trump while only 1/3 say life has been better under Biden. 29% of African Americans say life was better under Trump and a whopping 80% of Hispanics agree.
On Trump’s New York criminal trial 56% of voters believe the guilty verdict along with the other charges against Trump are politically motivated, while 40% disagree. Of the people who believe the charges are political, a whopping 85% blame Biden and the Department of Justice. Half of voters say the criminal conviction will not make any difference in how they vote with slightly more voters saying the conviction makes them less likely to vote for Trump (27%) as opposed to more likely to vote for him (23%).
“Trump remains in strong position in North Carolina, perhaps as strong as he has ever been,” said Burrell. “As this point in 2020 the Real Clear Politics average was Biden +1, and today it is Trump 5.3%. It is worth noting that Trump exceeded his mid-June avg of +1 in 2016, winning by 3.7% and in 2020 actual winning North Carolina by 1.3% will training in the RCP avg by 1 point.”
For down-ballot North Carolina Republicans, a strong showing by Trump will be key to other statewide victories. The Spry survey showed 43% of North Carolina voters favoring Republican Mark Robinson, with 39% favoring Democrat Josh Stein. 13% remain undecided.
45% of North Carolina voters view Mr. Robinson favorably while 42% see him unfavorably. Mr. Stein is also viewed favorably by 45% of voters but only 23% view him as unfavorable.
Two other key statewide races for Lt. Governor and State Supreme Court are statically tied. Republican Hal Weatherman leads Democrat Rachel Hunt by less than a point with roughly 38% of voters supporting each candidate with a huge 21% undecided. Similarly, Democrat Allison Riggs leads Republican Jefferson Griffin for North Carolina Supreme Court 39% to 37%.
However, Republicans are leading the congressional generic ballot by 8 points 48% to 40%.
“The central question at this point is can Republicans solidify support down the ballot,” said Burrell. “Recent history shows that 3-5% of North Carolina voters will support Trump and Democratic statewide candidates. If Trump can hold or increase his lead to 5% or better, Republicans will have a strong showing. If Biden can close the gap to a couple of points, both parties will have some victories to crow about.”
Trump continues to be closer to North Carolina voters on the topic of illegal immigration. When asked, “Would you support mass deportation of immigrants who entered the country illegally,” 62% of North Carolina voters are in support, while only 33% disagree. 90% of Republicans are in support as are 58% of unaffiliated voters along with 36% of Democrats.
“I think this shows that Biden’s extreme open border policies are grating on the American people’s compassion for immigration. I think voters of all parties see a complete lack of hope that the border situation will improve, and the American people are concerned about the waves of able-bodied males coming in unvetted, from 137 plus counties around the world. They remember the securest border in decades under Trump.”
About Spry Strategies:
Spry Strategies is a Tennessee based polling and consulting firm specializing hybrid-method polling, data modeling, live landline and cellphone advocacy calls, MMS/video messaging and consulting for businesses, governments, political campaigns, political action committees, advocacy groups and nonprofits. We utilize breakthrough research technology with the world’s first multi-mode survey platform and have executed our polling and other services in 38 states with a heavy focus in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Texas, and our home state of Tennessee.
| Ryan Burrell
President Spry Strategies ryan@spryresearch.com |
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North Carolina
Lowering U.S. and NC Flags to Half-Staff in Honor of North Carolina Rep. Mike Clampitt
Governor Josh Stein today ordered all U.S. and North Carolina flags at state facilities be lowered to half-staff from sunrise to sunset on Saturday, April 4 in honor of North Carolina State House Representative Mike Clampitt, who died on Wednesday, March 18, after a long battle with cancer.
Before his passing, Rep. Clampitt was serving his fourth term and recently won the GOP primary to run for a fifth term in office. A native of Swain County, Rep. Clampitt represented North Carolina’s 119th District including Transylvania, Jackson and Swain Counties. Services for Rep. Clampitt will be held in Cullowhee, North Carolina on April 4.
“Before I was sworn in as Governor, Representative Mike Clampitt was one of the first people I called as we worked to rebuild western NC after Hurricane Helene,” said Governor Josh Stein. “He was a steadfast public servant for his community in WNC, and today I am saddened by the news of his passing. May his memory be a blessing.”
Individuals, businesses, schools, municipalities, counties, and other government subdivisions are also
encouraged to fly flags at half-staff for the time indicated.
North Carolina flag announcements are issued in accordance with regulations outlined in the U.S. Flag Code.
Click for the NC State Government Flag Guide.
Sign up for the North Carolina Flag Alert list.
North Carolina
Abandoned building ordinance proposed to reduce fire and squatter concerns in Asheville
ASHEVILLE, N.C. (WLOS) — Asheville city leaders are set to consider a stricter ordinance aimed at tackling ongoing problems with abandoned buildings, as neighbors continue to report squatters and fires inside vacant properties.
On Tuesday, April 14, the Asheville City Council will vote on a proposal that would give code enforcement staff expanded authority to secure buildings that are structurally sound but still considered unsafe or a public nuisance. Securing would include putting up fencing or boarding up a property to keep squatters out.
Staff says they currently have a running list of about 30 residential and commercial properties they would target if the ordinance is approved.
COMMUNITY RAISES SAFETY CONCERNS OVER ABANDONED HOUSE IN THE RIVER ARTS DISTRICT
City officials shared photos highlighting the issue. One image showed a burned abandoned home on South French Broad Avenue from March 16. Just four days later, another photo showed the same site cleared — an outcome staff says they want to replicate to eliminate fire risks and unauthorized occupancy.
Another property on Booker Street in South Asheville, photographed in 2023, also shows signs of fire damage. Staff says they have continued monitoring that location, but are limited in what they can do under current rules.
APRIL 1, 2026 – An abandoned home in Asheville, North Carolina. (Photo: WLOS Staff)
Neighbors living near these properties say the conditions are concerning. Steve Ehly, who lives across from one abandoned home in West Asheville, supports giving compliance staff more authority to act.
“It’s run down. I don’t know that anyone’s been staying there,” Ehly said. “I’d like to see some improvement. The tax assessments and such just went up. There’s groundhogs living under there, and they’ve come over — I’ve had to set traps.”
PROPOSED ASHEVILLE ORDINANCE AIMS TO TRANSFORM ABANDONED STRUCTURES AMID SAFETY CONCERNS
Vacant buildings along Tunnel Road, including commercial buildings and vacant retail space at Innsbruck Mall, are also on the city’s radar.
Compliance coordinator Chris O’Brien said there’s a gap in the city’s current enforcement tools. As it stands, the city cannot issue violations for abandoned buildings if they are still structurally sound, even if they pose safety concerns.
APRIL 1, 2026 – An abandoned business in Asheville, North Carolina. (Photo: WLOS Staff)
“Our hope is we can create a safe site for the public, whether that means the buildings are boarded up or fully fenced,” O’Brien said.
At the former Mountaineer Inn on Tunnel Road, city crews have completed some exterior cleanup per a judge’s order allowing it. However, city staff says they lack the authority to take further action.
CITY BEGINS CLEANUP OF DEFUNCT MOUNTAINEER INN
News 13 has learned the city has now issued a “Notice of Violation” to the property owners, Radify Asheville LLC, for having an unsafe structure. The owners have 90 days to address the issue. If they fail to comply, the city could step in and board up the property.
Some residents say stronger measures are overdue. In the Montford neighborhood, homeowner James Liner said he supports a tougher ordinance.
“We’re seeing more and more homeless people coming here, and some of them have been in some of these houses,” Liner said. “They need to be either boarded up or fenced around.”
City council members are expected to vote on the proposed ordinance on April 14. Staff says they believe it will pass, noting the council is aware of the safety risks tied to these properties.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s electoral future may hinge on rural Black voters who feel ignored by Democrats
NASHVILLE, N.C. (AP) — Ricky Brinkley has lived in rural North Carolina nearly all of his 65 years, and he likes it “out in the county,” past the street lights and bustle of the small towns that carpet the landscape.
But the former truck driver can feel left out when elections roll around in this battleground state.
“People don’t come out like they should and ask you how you feel about things,” Brinkley said while he manned the counter at his daughter’s beauty supply store down the street from the Nashville courthouse. “You want somebody to vote, but you don’t want to do nothing to get the vote. No, it don’t work that way.”
Brinkley is among the rural Black residents who Democrats have often failed to mobilize as they try to dent Republican advantages here. It’s an urgent demographic puzzle for the party, which is normally strong with Black voters but tends to fall short in rural areas.
Success could help former Gov. Roy Cooper win a hotly contested U.S. Senate race this year and tilt the balance of power in Washington. It could also reshape presidential elections, providing Democrats with a wider path to the White House.
“People want to look at the word ‘rural’ in North Carolina and equate it to the word ‘white,’” said state party chair Anderson Clayton, a 28-year-old who won her job three years ago promising to expand the party beyond cities. “In my vision of a Democratic Party, when you talk about reaching out to rural voters, you are talking about rural Black voters.”
The Rev. James Gailliard, a former state lawmaker who leads a large Black congregation in Rocky Mount, put it even more bluntly.
“You don’t win this state in Durham,” Gailliard said. “You win it in the east.”
It’s about more than Cooper’s Senate bid
North Carolina is known for the university-heavy Research Triangle that includes Durham, Raleigh and Chapel Hill, along with Charlotte’s banking hub. But it also includes large swaths of small towns and rural areas where Democrats have lost ground in recent decades.
That’s not just because of white voters realigning with Republicans. It’s also because Black voters who lean Democratic don’t vote as often as their urban counterparts. Those rural Black voters are concentrated east of the triangle, extending along winding state highways through small towns, flatlands and farmland toward the Atlantic coastline.
Cooper, 68, won two terms as governor and four terms as state attorney general. However, Republicans control the state courts and the legislature, and they’ve redrawn the congressional map to expand their advantage in the U.S. House. Donald Trump carried the state for Republicans all three times he ran for the White House.
A native of rural Nash County, Cooper already in recent months held roundtable sessions with Black farmers, business owners and civic leaders in eastern North Carolina, along with students from North Carolina A&T University, a historically Black school that draws students from across the state. His campaign promises a statewide organizing effort before November.
Gailliard wants a more intentional effort
But Gailliard wants more.
The founding pastor at Word Tabernacle Church, Gailliard was among the Black state lawmakers who lost seats after Republican-led redistricting. He said regaining ground will require neighborhood-level organizing and investment from national Democrats, something he struggled to get from Kamala Harris’ 2024 presidential campaign.
“I couldn’t get any traction,” Gailliard recalled. “I begged them to bring her to Rocky Mount. I said, ‘Listen, Rocky Mount is the gateway to the East. If we crack Rocky Mount, we’ve cracked the East.’ Could not convince them to come. Two weeks later, guess who’s in Rocky Mount? Donald Trump.”
The Harris campaign sent former President Bill Clinton to the area instead.
Gailliard said Cooper needs people like him to get elected.
“Roy is a great friend, and I’m gonna run my butt off to help him in every way, but I’m not banking on his coattails,” Gailliard said. “I’m going to do the opposite. I’m going to grow coattails for him.”
The state party tries to fill gaps
Clayton, the state party chair, said the national party and its donors haven’t prioritized North Carolina early enough in recent cycles.
She said she’s relied mostly on local money to finance 25 full-time staffers, more than three times what the state party had heading into the 2022 midterms.
Bertie County Democratic chairwoman Camille Taylor, whose hometown of Powellsville has fewer than 200 residents, said she’s felt the shift.
She speaks regularly with a field organizer in nearby Greenville, the city closest to the northeastern counties with large proportions of Black residents. But she said it’s especially difficult to persuade rural voters to care about voting beyond the presidency, even though she tells them “these are the races and the people that you’re going to interact with more.”
Democrats have recruited candidates in all 170 legislative districts — two are Democratic-aligned independents — and every U.S. House district. State Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls, a noted civil rights attorney and Black woman, is running statewide for reelection.
Gailliard said he’s identified a few hundred nonprofits, neighborhood associations and other groups that can do issue-orientated work in his district as the election approaches. He wants to match each of them to specific precincts, routing money for them to reach voters and persuade them to vote.
He wants volunteers to get training from Democratic and left-leaning organizations rather than have the outsiders themselves knocking on rural Black voters’ doors.
“We can’t have 21-year-old recent college graduates from Utah knocking doors at $22 an hour in the hood,” Gailliard said. “That just does not work. They’re not a trusted messenger.”
Marginal voting changes add up
About 2 in 10 North Carolina voters in the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections were Black, according to AP VoteCast, as well as in the 2022 Senate election.
Roughly 4 in 10 Black voters in North Carolina’s last presidential election said they live in small towns or rural communities, similar to the share who said they live in the suburbs. Only about one-quarter reported living in urban areas.
Small shifts in persuasion matter, particularly when races are close. In 2008, Barack Obama became the last Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina, by a margin of just 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million votes cast.
Voter turnout between the 2020 and 2024 elections declined more in North Carolina counties that have larger Black populations.
Counties where Black voters make up about 30% to 40% of the electorate saw the biggest drop, with turnout falling by more than 3 percentage points. Counties with smaller Black populations saw more modest declines of about 1 percentage point. Overall, turnout remains higher in counties with fewer Black voters.
An old Cooper schoolmate just wants to be asked
Gailliard said Democrats cannot underestimate how much it means for someone to simply get asked for their vote.
“Black and rural voters are not transactional,” he said. “They are relational.”
Back in Nashville at the beauty supply store, Brinkley agreed.
“You get to be a big wheel, and you can forget where you came from,” Brinkley said. “I ain’t gonna say Roy forgot. He’s a hometown guy, so to speak, but I don’t expect to see him out here walking.”
Brinkley made it clear that if he votes, it would be for Cooper and other Democrats — but only if he votes.
“I could. I could. I may vote,” he said. “There’s just so much going on.”
___ Sweedler reported from Washington. Associated Press journalist Linley Sanders in Washington contributed to this report.
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