North Carolina
Poll: Lawfare backfiring on Biden in North Carolina, Trump stays strong
RALEIGH, N.C., June 18, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Former President Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden in the Tarheel state, as efforts to convict and possibly imprison the former President appear to be backfiring on N.C. Democrats, according to a new poll of 600 likely general election voters conducted by Spry Strategies from June 7 – June 11. Spry employs a hybrid method that combines multiple data collection methods: IVR, Live Landline & Online Mobile. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results are weighted. Some percentages in crosstab reports for this poll may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Trump leads Biden in a head-to-head matchup by 4% with 48% indicating they will vote for Trump with 44 % indicating they plan to vote for Biden. 8.5% are undecided. Trump’s lead expands when independent Robert F. Kennedy is included with 45% indicating they will support Trump, 37% favoring Biden and 8% Kennedy. The Kennedy campaign has submitted signatures in effort to qualify for the North Carolina ballot and the signature drive is under review by the Democratic party-controlled North Carolina Board of Elections.
The Spry results are similar to other recent polls. Currently, Trump is leading in the Real Clear Politics avg of NC polls by 5.3%. Biden has not led a public North Carolina poll since March of 2023.
57% of North Carolina voters disapprove of the job President Biden is doing, with half of all NC voters strongly disapproving.
Asked to reflect on Mr. Trump’s time as President, 52% of voters indicated they approve of the job he did as President while 46% disapprove.
Interesting that of the Trump supporters, 79% say they voted for Trump in 2016 and/or 2020. However, 14% said they recently became a Trump supporter “because of the sad state of the nation under Joe Biden. 1.6% of Trump supporters said they were “anti-Trump until the weaponization of the Justice system” was used against him.
Biden weak with his own party
Trump is commanding a full 85% of Republicans while Biden is only winning 71% of self-identified Democrats.
Trump support among African Americans, and youth rises
Joe Biden is currently attracting less than half of African American voters (49%) with Trump attracting 23% and RFK 20%.
“Former President Trump continues to show historic strength with African-Americans, who normally fall into the Democratic camp,” said Spry Strategies President, Ryan Burrell. “We know this not only because of our survey results along with others, but the recent actions of the Biden campaign clearly show they are worried about this problematic trend. Trump’s incredible support in NC with African Americans could help Mark Robinson, and Mark Robinson may be responsible for some of the Trump’s historic support with this crucial demographic.”
Biden continues to struggle with key age groups. The only age group Biden is currently winning is the youth vote. (18-34)
Biden leads Trump 38% to 34%, a historically small margin for Democrats. RFKJ is pulling 15%.
Trump leads every other age group.
35-54 — Trump 50%, Biden 33%, RFK 9%
55-64 — Trump 49%, Biden 36%, RFK 3%
65-Up — Trump 44%, Biden 41%, RFK 3%
When voters were asked whether “their families economic security and personal safety was better under Biden or Trump,” half of voters said Trump while only 35% said Biden. 10% of Democrats say that their situation was better under Trump. Half of independent/unaffiliated voters say life was better under Trump while only 1/3 say life has been better under Biden. 29% of African Americans say life was better under Trump and a whopping 80% of Hispanics agree.
On Trump’s New York criminal trial 56% of voters believe the guilty verdict along with the other charges against Trump are politically motivated, while 40% disagree. Of the people who believe the charges are political, a whopping 85% blame Biden and the Department of Justice. Half of voters say the criminal conviction will not make any difference in how they vote with slightly more voters saying the conviction makes them less likely to vote for Trump (27%) as opposed to more likely to vote for him (23%).
“Trump remains in strong position in North Carolina, perhaps as strong as he has ever been,” said Burrell. “As this point in 2020 the Real Clear Politics average was Biden +1, and today it is Trump 5.3%. It is worth noting that Trump exceeded his mid-June avg of +1 in 2016, winning by 3.7% and in 2020 actual winning North Carolina by 1.3% will training in the RCP avg by 1 point.”
For down-ballot North Carolina Republicans, a strong showing by Trump will be key to other statewide victories. The Spry survey showed 43% of North Carolina voters favoring Republican Mark Robinson, with 39% favoring Democrat Josh Stein. 13% remain undecided.
45% of North Carolina voters view Mr. Robinson favorably while 42% see him unfavorably. Mr. Stein is also viewed favorably by 45% of voters but only 23% view him as unfavorable.
Two other key statewide races for Lt. Governor and State Supreme Court are statically tied. Republican Hal Weatherman leads Democrat Rachel Hunt by less than a point with roughly 38% of voters supporting each candidate with a huge 21% undecided. Similarly, Democrat Allison Riggs leads Republican Jefferson Griffin for North Carolina Supreme Court 39% to 37%.
However, Republicans are leading the congressional generic ballot by 8 points 48% to 40%.
“The central question at this point is can Republicans solidify support down the ballot,” said Burrell. “Recent history shows that 3-5% of North Carolina voters will support Trump and Democratic statewide candidates. If Trump can hold or increase his lead to 5% or better, Republicans will have a strong showing. If Biden can close the gap to a couple of points, both parties will have some victories to crow about.”
Trump continues to be closer to North Carolina voters on the topic of illegal immigration. When asked, “Would you support mass deportation of immigrants who entered the country illegally,” 62% of North Carolina voters are in support, while only 33% disagree. 90% of Republicans are in support as are 58% of unaffiliated voters along with 36% of Democrats.
“I think this shows that Biden’s extreme open border policies are grating on the American people’s compassion for immigration. I think voters of all parties see a complete lack of hope that the border situation will improve, and the American people are concerned about the waves of able-bodied males coming in unvetted, from 137 plus counties around the world. They remember the securest border in decades under Trump.”
About Spry Strategies:
Spry Strategies is a Tennessee based polling and consulting firm specializing hybrid-method polling, data modeling, live landline and cellphone advocacy calls, MMS/video messaging and consulting for businesses, governments, political campaigns, political action committees, advocacy groups and nonprofits. We utilize breakthrough research technology with the world’s first multi-mode survey platform and have executed our polling and other services in 38 states with a heavy focus in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Texas, and our home state of Tennessee.
Ryan Burrell
President Spry Strategies ryan@spryresearch.com |
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North Carolina
Another house collapses into ocean along North Carolina’s Outer Banks; 3rd this year
RODANTHE, N.C. (WBTV) – One month after a home in North Carolina’s Outer Banks went viral for collapsing into the Atlantic Ocean, another house came crashing down.
The latest home fell into the ocean along G.A. Kohler Court in Rodanthe, the Cape Hatteras National Seashore said. Nobody was inside, but a second home was damaged by the collapse.
Officials said Friday’s collapse happened early in the morning, littering the shoreline with debris. Because of the debris, Seashore officials are urging visitors to avoid the beach near where the home came down.
“Dangerous debris may be present on the beach and in the water to the north and south of the collapse site, which will likely lead to temporary beach closures for public safety,” the Seashore said in a news release.
Officials said a debris removal company will begin cleaning up Friday, and the National Park Service may assist.
Friday’s collapse was the eighth on Seashore beaches over the past four years. Two others were reported in 2024. The first happened on Ocean Drive in May, while the other went viral after collapsing along Corbina Drive in August.
Nobody was hurt in any of the collapses.
The National Park Service said the daily effects of winds, waves and tides, along with rising seas and storms, have played a part in contributing to coastal erosion impacts. Because of that erosion, many homes and buildings have been left on open beachfront or in intertidal areas. More information on the collapses and their causes can be found here.
House collapses into ocean as swell from Hurricane Ernesto impacts Atlantic coast
Copyright 2024 WBTV. All rights reserved.
North Carolina
How Kamala Harris Hopes to Take North Carolina Back for the Democrats
At 10 A.M. on the Tuesday after Labor Day, the traditional start of the final sprint to Election Day, ten people in the eastern North Carolina town of Wilson sat in folding chairs, typing numbers into their phones and waiting to see if anyone answered. Many didn’t, and some who did had little time for what the callers were offering. The pitch was for the campaign of Kamala Harris, who, until two months ago, was the largely undefined understudy to an unpopular President. “O.K., so you’re definitely a strong Trump supporter?” Ruth Thorne, a volunteer, said into her phone. The woman on the other end said yes. Thorne resumed her pitch, but the woman hung up. “She said we’re going to Hell,” Thorne reported, “and ‘I’m not going to listen to your bullshit.’ ” But earlier, as the negative responses had piled up, Jill Ortman-Fouse, a regional organizing director for the Harris campaign, had reassured her, saying, “Every so often, you get a win.”
It’s the occasional wins that are driving the Harris campaign to pour money into an effort to attract voters in rural areas of North Carolina, part of a national strategy to mobilize neglected pockets of Democrats and peel away Republican and independent voters in battleground states. Simply the fact that so many volunteers were willing to work the phones on a Tuesday morning, beyond the cities and the suburbs where Democrats have drawn their greatest strength in the state, inspires a quiet confidence in the Harris camp that the effort might work. Twenty minutes into the session, Thorne, who retired from a corporate-lending job in New York and moved to Wilson eighteen months ago, ended a call, smiled, and said, “She’s at work, but she’s going to vote for Kamala.”
In a race that, according to current state polls, could go either way, the potential payoff for Harris is large. Not only is the effort pushing Donald Trump to spend time and money in a state where he once felt sure of victory; there is also the fact that a Harris win there, capturing sixteen electoral votes, would make it highly probable that she would win the Presidency. As a Harris staff member put it in a training Webinar for about fifty volunteers last month, “There is really no way that Donald Trump can make it to the White House if Democrats win North Carolina.”
Barack Obama, who won North Carolina in 2008 by a scant fourteen thousand votes, is the only Democrat to win the state since Jimmy Carter did it, in 1976, and Obama failed to repeat the victory in 2012. North Carolina also happens to be the only one of the seven battleground states that Trump won in 2020. But optimists note that Democrats have held the governor’s mansion for twenty-seven of the past thirty-one years, and that this year’s G.O.P. gubernatorial candidate is Mark Robinson, who has described homosexuality as “filth,” while saying that abortion “is about killing the child because you weren’t responsible enough to keep your skirt down.” Trump endorsed Robinson this year, explaining to a crowd in Greensboro that he told him, “I think you’re better than Martin Luther King. I think you’re Martin Luther King times two.” (On Thursday, CNN reported a host of offensive and lewd comments that Robinson allegedly made some years ago on a porn site, including calling King a “huckster” and a “maggot.” Robinson denied making the remarks.)
Supporters upbeat about Harris’s chances also point out that Joe Biden lost to Trump by just seventy-four thousand votes out of more than five million cast. “If you’re talking about a half point among white non-college voters, and you pick up a third of a point with Black mobilization, and you slightly overperform with suburban voters, which is very likely, that’s winning and losing in North Carolina,” Michael Halle, a senior organizer in Obama’s campaigns in North Carolina, told me. He admires the Harris campaign’s emphasis on hiring local organizers who know their communities, and he thinks that it’s wise to avoid talking about gender, race, and polarizing cultural themes in favor of discussing values and practical issues that make voters say, “It seems like she’s talking to me about that.”
There is no clearer sign that Harris believes North Carolina is in play than her decision to hold her first post-debate rallies in Charlotte and Greensboro, Democratic strongholds where she hopes to run up the score. “It’s going to be a very tight race until the end, and we are the underdogs,” she said in Charlotte, before a crowd of about seventy-five hundred people, urging her supporters to press ahead and “fight.” A few hours later, in front of seventeen thousand supporters at the Greensboro Coliseum, she touted her proposals to give tax breaks to the parents of newborns and to people starting small businesses, while mocking Trump’s comment that, nine years after first calling for the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, he only has “concepts of a plan.”
North Carolina has the country’s second-largest rural population, behind Texas. East of Raleigh’s Democratic precincts, where the increasingly rural territory turns light blue and then red, lie Nash County and Wilson County (with a combined population of about a hundred and seventy-five thousand). Each went narrowly for Biden during the Covid-hampered election of 2020, when Democrats did little in-person campaigning until the final days. David Berrios oversaw the North Carolina Democratic Party’s ground game. One of his biggest regrets, he told me, was the failure to make a broad statewide push for rural voters who might have tipped the state to Biden.
Matt Hildreth, the Harris campaign’s new national rural-outreach director, has spent the past dozen years leading Rural Organizing, a progressive nonprofit that develops strategies for communities where Republicans have repeatedly triumphed. “Sometimes I think we have had a message that’s too narrow,” he told me, pointing out that millions of Democrats of all races and ethnicities live in rural America. “There has been a temptation to run campaigns based on stereotypes. Agriculture is a cornerstone of the economy, but most people work in education, in health care, in manufacturing.” How can Harris win people over? “First, we need to show up,” he said. He added that the messenger is almost as important as the message, which means recruiting local organizers. “People in these areas know who is gettable. They know what messages work.”
The Harris campaign now has more than two hundred and thirty paid staff members in North Carolina, including at least a hundred and seventy assigned to twenty-six field offices around the state. One person who has noticed their activities is Thom Tillis, the Republican senator, who told Semafor, “What we’re seeing in North Carolina that we haven’t seen for a time, though, is a really well organized ground game by the Democrats.” Among the rural counties where the campaign has opened offices is Nash, where the popular Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, spent summers working on his family’s tobacco farm and later raised his own family. When organizers launched an office in Wilson County, after Harris entered the race, sixty volunteers showed up.
On the day I visited, amid memorabilia from past campaigns, including an old bumper sticker reading “Gimme Jimmy. Vote Democratic,” Thorne and the other volunteers were making phone calls. They wore T-shirts in pastel colors that read “Vote.” They had been given scripts and talking points that described Harris as a loyal partner to Joe Biden who has helped produce millions of jobs and lower drug costs while investing in roads and bridges. The sheets suggested ways to reply if a voter they reached raised character, abortion, January 6th, or the economy. There was also an entire page of pointers on Project 2025, covering topics from book banning and Head Start to abortion pills. Nancy Hawley, the former president of Democratic Women of Wilson County, started a call by describing Harris as a proven leader, a “protector of our American freedoms,” and someone who worked side by side with Biden to deliver large sums for infrastructure. The verdict? “She said that she and her husband would have to talk about it. She said, ‘He may vote for one, and I may vote for another.’ And I wanted to say, ‘Yay! Halfway there!’ ”
North Carolina
After Mark Robinson's alleged comments on porn forum surfaces, what happens if he exits race?
RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) — Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson has vowed to stay in the North Carolina governor’s race, and has called the CNN report ‘”tabloid trash,” but as he faces growing pressure to exit, what would happen next if he were to withdraw?
The North Carolina State Board of Elections said absentee voting is set to begin in North Carolina on Friday, September 20 “with ballots being sent out to military and overseas voters.”
According to state law, Robinson must formally withdraw from the gubernatorial race by 11:59 p.m. EST on Thursday.
- If a written request to withdraw from Robinson is received, the State GOP executive committee has the option to select a replacement nominee.
- If the party selects a replacement and certifies that name to the State Board, and ballots have been printed, then it would need to be determined whether reprinting the ballots with the replacement nominee’s name is practical.
- If ballots cannot be reprinted, a vote cast for the candidate whose name is printed on the ballot is required to be counted as a vote for the replacement nominee selected.
The controversy comes a week after the state board of elections announced the new dates for absentee ballots. Previously ballots were set to begin distribution earlier this month before the NC Court of Appeals ordered the removal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s name from state ballots.
Robinson has said he plans to stay in the governor’s race and has not changed his position.
ALSO SEE: North Carolina Democrats, Republicans react to latest Mark Robinson scandal
On Thursday, CNN claimed that Robinson – under a username he frequently used online — made several inflammatory comments on a message board of a pornography website more than a decade ago, including one comment where he allegedly referred to himself as a “black NAZI!” and another where he reportedly wrote that slavery wasn’t all bad.
ABC News has not independently confirmed this reporting or the online username alleged to be linked to Robinson.
RELATED: Mark Robinson called himself ‘black NAZI!’ in posts on porn message board, CNN reports
Featured video is from a previous report
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