North Carolina
Poll: Lawfare backfiring on Biden in North Carolina, Trump stays strong
RALEIGH, N.C., June 18, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Former President Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden in the Tarheel state, as efforts to convict and possibly imprison the former President appear to be backfiring on N.C. Democrats, according to a new poll of 600 likely general election voters conducted by Spry Strategies from June 7 – June 11. Spry employs a hybrid method that combines multiple data collection methods: IVR, Live Landline & Online Mobile. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results are weighted. Some percentages in crosstab reports for this poll may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Trump leads Biden in a head-to-head matchup by 4% with 48% indicating they will vote for Trump with 44 % indicating they plan to vote for Biden. 8.5% are undecided. Trump’s lead expands when independent Robert F. Kennedy is included with 45% indicating they will support Trump, 37% favoring Biden and 8% Kennedy. The Kennedy campaign has submitted signatures in effort to qualify for the North Carolina ballot and the signature drive is under review by the Democratic party-controlled North Carolina Board of Elections.
The Spry results are similar to other recent polls. Currently, Trump is leading in the Real Clear Politics avg of NC polls by 5.3%. Biden has not led a public North Carolina poll since March of 2023.
57% of North Carolina voters disapprove of the job President Biden is doing, with half of all NC voters strongly disapproving.
Asked to reflect on Mr. Trump’s time as President, 52% of voters indicated they approve of the job he did as President while 46% disapprove.
Interesting that of the Trump supporters, 79% say they voted for Trump in 2016 and/or 2020. However, 14% said they recently became a Trump supporter “because of the sad state of the nation under Joe Biden. 1.6% of Trump supporters said they were “anti-Trump until the weaponization of the Justice system” was used against him.
Biden weak with his own party
Trump is commanding a full 85% of Republicans while Biden is only winning 71% of self-identified Democrats.
Trump support among African Americans, and youth rises
Joe Biden is currently attracting less than half of African American voters (49%) with Trump attracting 23% and RFK 20%.
“Former President Trump continues to show historic strength with African-Americans, who normally fall into the Democratic camp,” said Spry Strategies President, Ryan Burrell. “We know this not only because of our survey results along with others, but the recent actions of the Biden campaign clearly show they are worried about this problematic trend. Trump’s incredible support in NC with African Americans could help Mark Robinson, and Mark Robinson may be responsible for some of the Trump’s historic support with this crucial demographic.”
Biden continues to struggle with key age groups. The only age group Biden is currently winning is the youth vote. (18-34)
Biden leads Trump 38% to 34%, a historically small margin for Democrats. RFKJ is pulling 15%.
Trump leads every other age group.
35-54 — Trump 50%, Biden 33%, RFK 9%
55-64 — Trump 49%, Biden 36%, RFK 3%
65-Up — Trump 44%, Biden 41%, RFK 3%
When voters were asked whether “their families economic security and personal safety was better under Biden or Trump,” half of voters said Trump while only 35% said Biden. 10% of Democrats say that their situation was better under Trump. Half of independent/unaffiliated voters say life was better under Trump while only 1/3 say life has been better under Biden. 29% of African Americans say life was better under Trump and a whopping 80% of Hispanics agree.
On Trump’s New York criminal trial 56% of voters believe the guilty verdict along with the other charges against Trump are politically motivated, while 40% disagree. Of the people who believe the charges are political, a whopping 85% blame Biden and the Department of Justice. Half of voters say the criminal conviction will not make any difference in how they vote with slightly more voters saying the conviction makes them less likely to vote for Trump (27%) as opposed to more likely to vote for him (23%).
“Trump remains in strong position in North Carolina, perhaps as strong as he has ever been,” said Burrell. “As this point in 2020 the Real Clear Politics average was Biden +1, and today it is Trump 5.3%. It is worth noting that Trump exceeded his mid-June avg of +1 in 2016, winning by 3.7% and in 2020 actual winning North Carolina by 1.3% will training in the RCP avg by 1 point.”
For down-ballot North Carolina Republicans, a strong showing by Trump will be key to other statewide victories. The Spry survey showed 43% of North Carolina voters favoring Republican Mark Robinson, with 39% favoring Democrat Josh Stein. 13% remain undecided.
45% of North Carolina voters view Mr. Robinson favorably while 42% see him unfavorably. Mr. Stein is also viewed favorably by 45% of voters but only 23% view him as unfavorable.
Two other key statewide races for Lt. Governor and State Supreme Court are statically tied. Republican Hal Weatherman leads Democrat Rachel Hunt by less than a point with roughly 38% of voters supporting each candidate with a huge 21% undecided. Similarly, Democrat Allison Riggs leads Republican Jefferson Griffin for North Carolina Supreme Court 39% to 37%.
However, Republicans are leading the congressional generic ballot by 8 points 48% to 40%.
“The central question at this point is can Republicans solidify support down the ballot,” said Burrell. “Recent history shows that 3-5% of North Carolina voters will support Trump and Democratic statewide candidates. If Trump can hold or increase his lead to 5% or better, Republicans will have a strong showing. If Biden can close the gap to a couple of points, both parties will have some victories to crow about.”
Trump continues to be closer to North Carolina voters on the topic of illegal immigration. When asked, “Would you support mass deportation of immigrants who entered the country illegally,” 62% of North Carolina voters are in support, while only 33% disagree. 90% of Republicans are in support as are 58% of unaffiliated voters along with 36% of Democrats.
“I think this shows that Biden’s extreme open border policies are grating on the American people’s compassion for immigration. I think voters of all parties see a complete lack of hope that the border situation will improve, and the American people are concerned about the waves of able-bodied males coming in unvetted, from 137 plus counties around the world. They remember the securest border in decades under Trump.”
About Spry Strategies:
Spry Strategies is a Tennessee based polling and consulting firm specializing hybrid-method polling, data modeling, live landline and cellphone advocacy calls, MMS/video messaging and consulting for businesses, governments, political campaigns, political action committees, advocacy groups and nonprofits. We utilize breakthrough research technology with the world’s first multi-mode survey platform and have executed our polling and other services in 38 states with a heavy focus in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Texas, and our home state of Tennessee.
| Ryan Burrell
President Spry Strategies ryan@spryresearch.com |
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North Carolina
Former staffer claims sexual harassment in ethics complaint against NC insurance commissioner
A Forsyth County woman has filed an ethics complaint against North Carolina Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey, alleging that the official sent her what she called inappropriate text messages for years while she worked in the Department of Insurance.
Causey, meanwhile, says he would welcome an investigation into the allegations, telling WRAL News in an interview this week: “The truth will come out.”
Former regulatory analyst April Taylor filed the complaint last week with the State Ethics Commission. The DOI said Wednesday it has received a copy of the complaint.
Taylor is alleging sexual harassment. She also claims Causey campaigned on state time and misused a state vehicle.
Taylor alleged last month that Causey sent her a series of inappropriate text messages during her nine years at the department. She made the allegations in an article published by The News & Observer.
On Wednesday, Taylor shared images of the text messages with WRAL. She characterized her relationship with Causey as “friendly,” citing family ties dating back before she worked there. But the messages reflect a more complicated dynamic.
“Just don’t let me catch you in the room alone,” reads one message.
“I might jump your bones. Watch out!!!” reads another.
The messages made her uncomfortable, she told WRAL News, adding: “At the time, I didn’t know how to respond.”
Taylor told state investigators that she has many more text messages and screenshots to prove Causey was campaigning on state time while at a department office in Archdale. She also said Causey used a state vehicle for personal use, including to attend her great-aunt’s wedding in 2025.
“Although Causey and I had a friendship,” Taylor said in her filing, “he crossed the line many times, leaving me feeling uncomfortable and violated.”
She said she first attempted to raise the concerns
– unrelated to the text messages
– about Causey to the Office of the State Auditor, related to his official capacity as the state’s Insurance Commissioner. She alleged that the auditor’s office expressed little interest in investigating. A spokesperson for State Auditor Dave Boliek challenged her narrative, saying her complaint “draws incorrect conclusions.”
In her complaint, Taylor said: “I am willing to take a polygraph exam and testify before legislatures. Evidence will be furnished upon request.”
In her role as an analyst at the department, Taylor’s job led to frequent communication with Causey.
Taylor, who resides between Greensboro and Winston-Salem, allowed WRAL to read through text messages exchanged with Causey over the years.
Much of the communication observed appeared friendly or work-related. But Taylor says some texts went too far – particularly those that commented on her appearance.
WRAL asked Causey about Taylor’s allegations. He declined to comment, saying it was a personnel matter. He added that he was open to an investigation into the initial allegations.
“We want to make sure everything is clear and transparent,” Causey said, “because we certainly have nothing to hide to the public, to the lawmakers, or to any of my fellow elected officials.”
Causey acknowledged to the N&O that he sent work-related texts to Taylor. But he told the newspaper that he didn’t recall sending comments related to her appearance. Taylor disputes that.
“Throughout the years, I thought they were inappropriate,” Taylor said. “I felt uncomfortable. I responded with laughing emojis because I didn’t know how to respond. What am I supposed to do, respond with mad faces? He may look at it as a form of rejection.”
Taylor said she was in an appointed position. “He could have let me go for any reason,” she said.
Asked why she didn’t push back against the messages, Taylor said: “I just didn’t want to make the situation uncomfortable. Just wanted to laugh it off.”
Several messages sent by Taylor to Causey were flattering in nature, including heart and smiling emojis, as well as references to Causey as a “handsome” man. “I felt the laughing emoji was my way of trying to shut it down,” she said.
A spokesperson for the department declined to comment on the allegations.
“Commissioner Causey and NCDOI will fully comply with any requests by the N.C. State Ethics Commission regarding this or any other matter,” Barry Smith a DOI spokesman, said in a statement.
North Carolina
‘Bonsai in the Blue Ridge’ exhibit brings dozens of displays to North Carolina Arboretum
ASHEVILLE, N.C. (WLOS) — The North Carolina Arboretum will host a bonanza of bonsai this week with “Bonsai in the Blue Ridge,” a limited-time exhibition of more than 50 living sculptures as part of the American Bonsai Society’s Learning Seminar 2026.
Between June 4-7, arboretum visitors can explore the exhibits for a $5 admission fee, along with the arboretum’s regular parking fee. A press release from the arboretum said there will also be opportunities to register for seminars, workshops and tours led by bonsai artists for an additional cost.
GROWING YOUR GARDEN? PLENTY OF PLANTS FOR PURCHASE AT THE ARBORETUM’S SPRING SALE
“The American Bonsai Society brings together people who share a passion for bonsai. Through world-class publications and events such as the Learning Seminars, ABS promotes and educates, sharing techniques that showcase North American artistic expression and encouraging the use of plant species that grow well in the United States, Canada, and Mexico,” ABS Convention Chair Scott Barboza said in a written statement.
FILE IMAGE of a bonsai plant that is part of the North Carolina Arboretum’s Bonsai Exhibition Garden. (Photo: North Carolina Arboretum)
Bonsai is the ancient art of shaping trees over time to create miniature living sculptures. The North Carolina Arboretum is no stranger to the art, having established the Bonsai Exhibition Garden in 2005, which showcases up to 50 specimens of traditional Asian bonsai subjects, tropical plants, American species and plants native to the Blue Ridge region.
IKEBANA INTERNATIONAL ASHEVILLE STAGES FLORAL DESIGN EXHIBITION AT NC ARBORETUM
“Bonsai in the Blue Ridge” takes place 5 to 7 p.m. Thursday, June 4, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Friday and Saturday, June 5 and 6, and 9 a.m. to noon Sunday, June 7.
BE THE FIRST TO COMMENT
See a full schedule of events for this week’s seminar at americanbonsaisociety.org.
The Greenville Police Department joined community leaders in Pitt County this week to promote safe firearm storage as part of North Carolina’s annual NC S.A.F.E. Week of Action, the Greenville Police Department said.
In a statement, the Greenville Police Department thanked NC S.A.F.E. and the North Carolina Department of Public Safety for the opportunity to help educate residents about responsible firearm storage practices.
We want to thank NC S.A.F.E. and the North Carolina Department of Public Safety for allowing us to help relay to the community the importance of safely securing firearms so that we can avoid tragedies in the future!
The local event follows Gov. Josh Stein’s proclamation recognizing June 1-7 as NC S.A.F.E. Week of Action.
According to Gov. Stein’s office, the campaign aims to encourage gun owners to securely store firearms and make safety resources more widely available across North Carolina.
An unlocked gun is a tragedy waiting to happen, and too often, it does,” said Governor Josh Stein. “NC S.A.F.E Week is a reminder to all of us about the measures we can all take to keep ourselves and the people we love safe.
Safe firearm storage is one of the simplest steps we can take to prevent tragedies before they happen,” said North Carolina Department of Public Safety Deputy Secretary William Lassiter Lassiter. “NC S.A.F.E. is increasing awareness around secure firearm storage and making safety resources more accessible to help reduce preventable injuries and build safer communities throughout our state.
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