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‘On the razor’s edge’: How North Carolina could decide the US presidency

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‘On the razor’s edge’: How North Carolina could decide the US presidency


About 20 years ago, in the early 2000s, Paul Shumaker’s party began experiencing a troubling trend.

Shumaker, a Republican operative with a classic Carolinian drawl, laid it out for Al Jazeera in stark terms: Republican registration started declining, while the number of “unaffiliated” voters gradually rose.

“Now there are no liberal Republicans left, and there are fewer moderate Republicans, too,” Shumaker said.

He shared data showing how both major parties, Republicans and Democrats, have, in total, invested more than $147m in the state over the last 10 years — but even that couldn’t stop an “explosion” of unaffiliated voters, who are now the clear majority.

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Of the 8.5 million voters in North Carolina this year, approximately 38 percent are registered as “unaffiliated”. That dwarfs the 32 percent who identify as Democrat and the 30 percent who say they’re Republican.

This explosion of “unaffiliated” voters dovetails with larger demographic trends showing Americans bucking traditional party labels, adding to the unpredictability of elections.

However, that doesn’t mean “unaffiliated” voters will opt for a third-party candidate. Surveys have shown that the majority of independent voters do, in fact, “lean” consistently towards either the Republican side or the Democrats.

Which is to say, they’re very much up for grabs — and in demand — by the two major parties.

“Neither party can win without building a coalition for unaffiliated voters,” Shumaker said.

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Republicans, he explained, need to appeal to unaffiliated voters in the suburbs and cities — two areas Democrats are expected to win.

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris waves to the crowd at a campaign rally in Greenville, North Carolina, on October 13 [Jonathan Drake/Reuters]

Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping to use “unaffiliated” voters to compensate for losses in their base. More than 2.4 million people in North Carolina registered as Democrat as of October 26 — down from more than 2.6 million at around the same point in the 2020 election cycle.

Party strategists like Jackson hope to make up the loss by appealing to voters in left-wing strongholds — typically urban centres — while holding ground in rural areas.

After all, North Carolina has the largest rural population in the US after Texas.

“People often say you have to lose by less in the rural areas, but that’s not true: You just have to stop the bleeding,” Jackson said. “If Kamala Harris holds [outgoing President] Joe Biden’s margins, she could have a shot.”

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Mac McCorkle, a Democratic political consultant with a cheery, amiable aura, refers to unaffiliated voters as “precious” to his party. He believes only a small number of voters will decide whether North Carolina backs Harris or Trump.

“It’s not like 20 percent of the electorate can go either way,” he said. “We’re talking about a race that’ll be decided by one, two, three percent.”



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North Carolina

North Carolina has a long ballot – spend some time schooling yourself • NC Newsline

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North Carolina has a long ballot – spend some time schooling yourself • NC Newsline


If you’re one of the millions of North Carolinians who’ve yet to vote in this year’s election, there’s still ample time as early voting runs through this Saturday. Even if you still need to register, you can do so and vote
at the same time at any early voting site in your home county.

Those who wait till Election Day, must vote at their local precinct and already be registered.

Whenever you go, remember to bring a photo ID. The state Board of Elections website has information on how to get one for free if you don’t have one.

And here’s another thing to remember: the ballot this year is long. My Wake County ballot had 28 contests at the federal, state, and local levels.

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And while you don’t have to vote in every race, you’re doing yourself and our community a disservice if you don’t. There’s a fine nonpartisan guide at ncvoterguide.org that can get you up to speed.

The bottom line: Voting is a civic duty for all good citizens. Take a few minutes ncvoterguide.org to prepare and to do your part.

For NC Newsline, I’m Rob Schofield.



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Helene damage in western North Carolina leading to increased wildfire risk

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Helene damage in western North Carolina leading to increased wildfire risk


Powerful winds from Helene knocked down large swaths of trees in western North Carolina, creating an environment susceptible to wildfires.

Helene wreaked havoc on the Tar Heel State in late September, producing historic floods and winds exceeding 100 mph.

Tens of thousands of trees fell and set the stage for a potentially dangerous situation for residents still dealing with destruction caused last month.

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North Carolina State University Professor of Forest Ecology Robert Scheller said this tree mortality resulted in tree debris, such as leaves and branches, that can dry up and become fuel for a wildfire.

“Any fire is limited by the amount of fuels to feed it,” Scheller said to FOX Weather. “Specifically, a wildfire needs that small material to really spread.”

NORTH CAROLINA CHRISTMAS TREE INDUSTRY RECOVERS FROM HELENE AS HOPE FOR HOLIDAY SUPPLY REMAINS STRONG

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He noted that different types of trees have variable flammability. Pine trees are perhaps the most flammable type of tree, as pine needles have high levels of flammable resins.

Oak trees, he said, are likely the second-most flammable, adding that oak trees are the trees that dominate western North Carolina.

With so much fuel for kindling from the downed trees, western North Carolina is poised to have an increased wildfire risk.

To mitigate this risk, officials may attempt to put in fuel breaks, or areas that serve as barriers in the landscape to prevent a fire from easily spreading.

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However, taking that approach in western North Carolina would be challenging, given the rugged terrain of the area and the devastated infrastructure.

One alternative solution involves implementing burn bans, according to Scheller.

“We have to be careful,” he said. “Things are really dry right now, only getting drier. Where we need to be really careful is, on windy days, is to have a complete burn ban throughout that area.”

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Scheller noted that the next few months may help lessen the risk of wildfires, as fuel from blown-down trees becomes wet with snow and then begins to decay.

However, taking action sooner rather than later, especially during these dry conditions, is critical.



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NASA images reveal eerie “ghost forests” spreading in North Carolina

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NASA images reveal eerie “ghost forests” spreading in North Carolina


Pictures of spooky “ghost forests” in North Carolina have been snapped from space, and a comparison of NASA images show how the bald cypress forests are being killed off.

In 2024, the forests along the coastline of North Carolina’s Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula have grown increasingly brown, compared to the verdant green of the same region in 2005.

Ghost forests are coastal woodlands where trees have died due to rising sea levels, leading to saltwater intrusion and erosion. The salty water of the sea contaminates the groundwater that these forests rely on, affecting the soil chemistry and tree health, slowly killing the forests near the coast, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Eventually, the dead trees fall over and decompose, but while they’re still standing, they appear eerily zombielike against the healthy surrounding landscape.

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“The closer a forest is to sea level, the greater the risk of tree death and the detection of ghost forests,” Xi Yang, an environmental scientist at the University of Virginia told NASA Earth Observatory.

These ghost forests are popping up around North Carolina and the East Coast, affecting a vast number of tree species from cypress to pines. The area affected by these dying trees is increasing rapidly, with a 2021 paper finding that 11 percent of forested land in North Carolina’s largest coastal wildlife refuge became ghost forest between 1985 and 2019.

“The formation of this ghost forest transition state peaked prominently between 2011 and 2012, following Hurricane Irene and a 5-year drought, with 4,500 ± 990 hectares of ghost forest forming during that year alone,” researchers wrote in the 2021 paper, published in the journal Ecological Applications.

ghost forest
Close-up image of the ghost forest. These are a result of seawater killing coastal trees.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

This increase in ghost forest coverage is due to increasing sea levels worldwide, caused by spiking global temperatures and melting polar ice caps. Along the U.S. East Coast in particular, sea level rise appears to be being exacerbated by land subsidence, with North Carolina’s sea level rising three times faster than the worldwide average, at between 3 mm and 4 mm per year.

“The sinking on the East Coast is driven by several factors from natural to anthropogenic processes. The major natural processes are glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and natural sediment compaction. The major anthropogenic factor is fluid withdrawal from the ground. These factors contribute to the sinking of the coast,” Leonard Ohenhen, previously a Ph.D. student at Virginia Tech, told Newsweek.

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Forests along the coast serve as natural buffers, protecting inland areas from storm surges and erosion, meaning that their loss increases the vulnerability of coastal communities. Additionally, the increase in ghost forests in the bald cypress forests of North Carolina is killing off some of the oldest living trees in the eastern U.S.

“You can also see the effects of climate change collide with human development in Landsat images like this,” Duke University ecologist Emily Bernhardt told NASA Earth Observatory.

“Marshes shift locations over time as sea levels rise, but there’s nowhere for cypress forests to go. They’re already hemmed in by farmland or other development, so these iconic wetlands are getting squeezed and dying off in mass mortality events instead.”

References

Ury, E. A., Yang, X., Wright, J. P., & Bernhardt, E. S. (2021). Rapid deforestation of a coastal landscape driven by sea‐level rise and extreme events. Ecological Applications, 31(5). https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2339

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