North Carolina
North Carolina vs. VCU prediction: March Madness 2026 pick, odds, best bet for Round of 64
The North Carolina Tar Heels open the NCAA Tournament against the VCU Rams, one of the trendiest upset bets in the field.
According to BetMGM’s John Ewing, the Rams are the most-bet underdog to win outright among the 16 games on Thursday at +125 on the moneyline.
UNC enters this game as a 2.5-point favorite despite being the No. 6 seed in the South region. BYU, which will face Texas, is the only other team seeded sixth or higher with such a close spread.
This game is also being played in Greenville, SC, a little more than a three-hour drive from Chapel Hill. That drive would be about twice as long for VCU fans coming from Richmond, VA.
North Carolina vs. VCU prediction, best bet
Careful observers of college hoops know why VCU is getting so much love from the public ahead of March Madness.
UNC freshman Caleb Wilson won’t be available after breaking his thumb in practice; he was already missing in action with a left hand injury that happened in February. Wilson led North Carolina in points (19.8), rebounds (9.4), assists (2.7), steals (1.5) and blocks (1.4) and is likely going to be a top-three pick in this year’s NBA Draft.
Replacing all that production is nearly impossible, but UNC kept itself afloat, going 5-3 since he was sidelined. Knowing that he won’t return will certainly be on his teammates’ minds with the spotlight on them in Round 1.
The Rams, meanwhile, have been a well-oiled machine with a 16-1 record since early January. Their season-long metrics are impressive: 49th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 35th in 3-point percentage. They have good shooters in their rotation and size up front with 6-foot-11 Lazar Djokovic.
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The Tar Heels also have size with 7-footer Henri Veesaar, who can score inside and is shooting 42 percent from beyond the arc. He’ll be a matchup problem for the Rams all game in pick-and-roll situations and can open up outside shots when he dives to the rim on those plays.
I also think UNC has the intangibles to avoid a potential upset. They are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country and they don’t turn the ball over, which are two keys to limiting extra possessions.
The hype around VCU is understandable, but I think bettors are undervaluing the rest of this UNC team. Yes Wilson’s absence lowers the Tar Heels’ ceiling, but they have still performed well without him.
I’m fading the public and riding with UNC to cover the 2.5-point spread here.
The Pick: UNC -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
The North Carolina Tar Heels will be a young program across the board next season, with well over two dozen freshmen and numerous additions from the transfer portal this offseason. Expectations for the 2026 season are lowered dramatically after a disastrous first season for head coach Bill Belichick, though those expectations could help the Tar Heels fly under the radar.
As the Tar Heels approach the end of spring ball, it is time to look at the veterans of the team—the ones who have the experience to lead, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Let’s look at three underrated seniors for the 2026 football season.
Ade Willie, Cornerback
Willie joins the Tar Heels program after four years with Michigan State, as the former 4-star player in the 2022 recruiting class gets an opportunity to not only provide depth to the secondary, but potentially start Week 0 against TCU.
Willie played in over 30 games with the Spartans and brings experience in the secondary at cornerback and safety, along with quality length and closing speed to the football. For a defense that needs players to step up, the redshirt senior from IMG Academy will be asked to do so.
Isaiah Johnson, Defensive Lineman
The defensive line is beginning to look like one of the Tar Heels’ strengths for the 2026 season. Johnson, a former transfer from Arizona, enters his redshirt senior year looking to add another year of production after 40 tackles and two sacks this past season.
North Carolina has an impressive group of starters with Malkart Abou-Jaoude, Leroy Jackson, and incoming transfer Jaylen Harvey. Johnson adds value to the group as a run defender with the ability to penetrate the pocket. While not discussed as a key player, Johnson’s name will be used plenty during the regular season as a potential standout for the program’s defensive front.
Coleman Bryson, Safety
Bryson was a reserve player for the Tar Heels’ secondary last season as a big nickel defender in the rotation. Heading into his redshirt senior year, the former Minnesota Gopher is looking to become a full-time starter in the secondary.
It wasn’t long ago when Bryson was making plays as the 2022 Pinstripe Bowl Defensive MVP. His special teams abilities were valuable for North Carolina last season, and he flashed at times in coverage against tight ends, including a pass breakup in the season-opener against TCU. The Waynesville, North Carolina, native could be a key defender on the back-seven in 2026.
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Friends and family members gathered in Washington state on Saturday, remembering former Miss North Carolina Carrie Everett, who died on Easter Sunday. Another memorial service is planned in North Carolina next month.
Web Editor : Sydney Ross
Posted
Virginia 3, North Carolina 0 | First Quarter
Virginia 3, North Carolina 0 | Q1 8:19
After a faceoff win by Henry Metz, Brendan Millon finds Truitt Sunderland to give the Hoos a 3-0 lead. Timeout North Carolina.
Virginia 2, North Carolina 0 | Q1 9:00
Brendan Millon gets the scoring started for the Cavaliers with a question mark style goal. On the defensive end, Jake Marek opens the game with three early saves with his third save setting up a transition goal by Tommy Snyder.
Virginia vs North Carolina pregame notes
UVA owns a 59-33 advantage since the series began in 1938.
The 59 wins are UVA’s most against any opponent in program history (followed by 51 against Duke).
In Chapel Hill last year, the Tar Heels defeated the Cavaliers 18-9, snapping UVA’s six-game series win streak.
UVA has won nine of the last 11 meetings, dating back to 2018.
The Hoos have won the last two meetings with Carolina at Klöckner Stadium, 11-4 in 2022 and 14-6 in 2024.
The Tar Heels’ four goals in 2022 marked the fewest goals in a game under Joe Breschi, who was named UNC’s head coach in 2006.
The last time the Tar Heels knocked off the Cavaliers at Klöckner was a 16-13 decision during the first of three games between the two teams in 2021.
Later that year, UVA claimed back-to-back meetings against the Heels, including in the NCAA semifinals on the way to capturing the 2021 national title over Maryland.
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