Incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee holds a narrow lead over challenger Nida Allam in the Democratic primary for North Carolina’s 4th Congressional district as ballots continue to be counted.

In a race seen as an early test of whether Democratic voters desire generational change within the party, Foushee holds a lead of just over 1,000 votes with 99% of results in so far, according to the Associated Press.

Under state law, provisional votes will be counted in the coming days in a district that includes Durham and Chapel Hill. If the election results end up within a 1% margin, Allam could request a recount.

Successfully ousting an incumbent lawmaker is often extremely difficult and rare. However, there have been recent upsets in races as some voters are calling for new leaders and several sitting members of Congress face primary challengers this cycle.

Allam, a 32-year-old Durham County Commissioner, is running to the left of Foushee, 69, framing her candidacy as part of a broader rejection of longtime Democratic norms.

On the campaign trail, Allam ran on an anti-establishment message, pledging to be a stronger fighter than Foushee in Congress, both in standing up against President Trump’s agenda and when pushing for more ambitious policy.

“North Carolina is a purple state that often gets labeled red, but we’re not a red state,” she told NPR in an interview last month, emphasizing the need to address affordability concerns. “We are a state of working-class folks who just want their elected officials to champion the issues that are impacting them.”

She drew a contrast with the congresswoman on immigration, voicing support for abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Foushee has declined to go that far, advocating instead for ICE to be defunded and for broader reforms to the federal immigration system.

Allam also clashed with Foushee over U.S. policy towards Israel. As a vocal opponent of Israel’s war in Gaza, Allam swore off campaign donations from pro-Israel lobbying groups, such as AIPAC, and repeatedly criticized Foushee for previously accepting such funds.

Though Foushee announced last year that she would not accept AIPAC donations this cycle, she and Allam continued to spar over the broader role of outside spending in the race.

Their matchup comes four years after the candidates first squared off in 2022, when Allam lost to Foushee in what became the most expensive primary in the state’s history, with outside groups spending more than $3.8 million.

However, this year is poised to break that record. Outside groups have reported spending more than $4.4 million on the primary matchup, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

WUNC’s Colin Campbell contributed to this report.

North Carolina is beginning to plan for floods that have not happened yet.

State officials this year advanced the next phase of the state’s Flood Resiliency Blueprint, incorporating updated modeling that factors in heavier rainfall, future development and sea-level rise — a shift away from relying solely on historic data and FEMA’s regulatory maps.

“We can make decisions and plan for that future, not just the exposure to flooding that we see now,” said Stuart Brown, who manages the Flood Resiliency Blueprint for the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality.

For a state that has endured record-breaking rainfall from Hurricane Helene in the mountains to Tropical Storm Chantal in the Triangle, the move reflects a growing recognition: past standards no longer capture present risk.

Beyond outdated flood lines

Multiple North Carolina studies have found that between 43% and 60% of flood damage occurs outside FEMA’s regulatory flood zones. Those maps shape insurance requirements and local zoning decisions, yet they are largely based on historical rainfall data.

“A lot of the regulatory floodplains really haven’t kept up with what we know is happening,” said Elizabeth Losos, executive in residence at Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainability.

Climate data show rainfall intensity in the Triangle has increased by about 21% since 1970. Warmer air holds more moisture, fueling heavier downpours that overwhelm drainage systems designed for a different climate.

“Fixing what we know is flooding right now is good,” Losos said. “It’s better than nothing, but it’s definitely not enough.”

Brown said the blueprint incorporates projections for future precipitation and development — a critical factor in one of the fastest-growing states in the country.

“Development can be an issue for flooding in two categories,” Brown said. “One is when that development is occurring in areas that are flood prone. The other is when that development is done in ways that don’t account for the additional stormwater that will be produced.”

Thousands of projects, limited dollars

Unlike states that rely on massive levee systems, North Carolina’s flood risk is scattered across river basins, coastal plains and rapidly developing suburbs. Brown said resilience here will require thousands of localized projects.

“We were asked by the General Assembly to provide specific, actionable projects,” Brown said. “We want to know what specific geography and what specific action is proposed.”

That planning push comes as federal support for flood research and mitigation is shrinking.

The Trump administration has proposed a roughly 30% cut to NOAA’s 2026 budget, targeting climate research and ocean services that provide the rainfall and coastal data states use to model flood risk. At FEMA, the administration has cut staff by more than 6%, reduced funding for local hazard mitigation projects and added new approval layers for grants.

For North Carolina, that means fewer dollars for buyouts, drainage upgrades and flood control projects — and less federal data to guide long-term planning — just as the state is trying to build a more forward-looking flood strategy.

Brown said North Carolina is trying to “leverage the limited dollars that we have in the state with any federal sources that are available” and embed resilience into routine investments in transportation, water treatment and conservation.

“Funding is always going to be an issue,” Brown said.

The policy gap

Researchers have long argued that resilience investments save money. Studies show every $1 spent on mitigation can yield $4 to $13 in avoided losses.

“The problem is that the policies don’t align the people who pay the cost with the people who get the benefit,” Losos said.

A developer may not directly benefit from downstream flood reduction. A town may shoulder upfront infrastructure costs while insurers, neighboring communities or future taxpayers capture part of the savings.

Without policy changes that align costs and benefits, resilience can remain politically and financially difficult.

“In the most severe cases, there are some communities that will have to eventually abandon if they don’t begin to think about how they can adapt to these conditions,” Losos said.

North Carolina now has updated tools to better measure future flood risk. Whether the state can secure stable federal support — and align its own policies with the risks ahead — will determine how effectively communities prepare for the next storm rather than recover from the last one.

RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina’s primary will be the official starting gun for one of the country’s most closely watched U.S. Senate campaigns, likely pitting former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper against former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley.

Each candidate is the most high-profile contender for their party’s nomination, which should be sealed on Tuesday. Scores of other races also are on the ballot, including for the U.S. House, state legislature and judicial seats.

North Carolina, a traditional battleground where Democrats have been able to hold the governor’s seat even as voters helped send President Donald Trump to the White House, is one of three states kicking off this year’s midterm elections, along with Texas and Arkansas. Tuesday’s slate of primaries comes against the backdrop of the U.S. and Israel attack on Iran.

The war, which began over the weekend, has killed at least six U.S. service members, spiraled into a regional confrontation as Iran retaliated and sent oil and natural gas prices soaring. The president, who campaigned on an isolationist “America First” agenda and went to war without authorization from Congress, faces mounting questions over its rationale and an exit strategy.

North Carolina’s election this year could be crucial for determining which party controls the U.S. Senate, where Republicans currently have the majority. The seat is open because Sen. Thom Tillis decided to retire after clashing with President Donald Trump. Political experts say a typhoon of outside money could make the race the most expensive Senate campaigns in U.S. history, perhaps reaching $1 billion.

Many Democrats see Cooper, who served two terms as governor and has been successful in state politics for decades, as the party’s best shot at victory. Democrats need to pick up four seats to take back control of the Senate, and they view the most likely path as winning in North Carolina, Maine, Alaska and Ohio.

Cooper faces five lesser-known rivals on Tuesday. Other Republicans on the Senate ballot include Navy officer Don Brown and Michele Morrow, who was the party’s nominee for state schools chief in 2024.

Cooper formally entered the race weeks after Tillis announced last summer he wouldn’t seek a third term, as did Whatley, who was buoyed by Trump’s backing when the president’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump declined to enter. The two candidates have been campaigning for months against each other with little focus on intraparty opposition.

Whatley promises to keep pushing Trump’s agenda if elected, one that he says has cut taxes and spending and restored U.S. military might.

“It’s very important for us to have a conservative champion and for President Trump to have an ally in the Senate,” he said while voting early in Gastonia. “We’re going to be fighting for every family and every community in North Carolina.”

Some primary voters say Congress needs Democratic control as a counterweight to Trump and what they consider disastrous policies.

“I think we need to send a message. And I think the more Democrats that show up, and the more independents that show up for this midterm election, and the more seats we can take from the Republicans, the more he might get the message,” said Lisa Frucht, 67, said as she cast a ballot for Cooper at an early voting site north of Raleigh.

Republican voter Gary Grimes, who chose Whatley, said Democratic control of Congress could lead to more impeachment efforts against Trump that ultimately won’t succeed.

“It’ll be a repeat of what they did to Trump in the first term,” said Grimes, 71, “And they can’t see anything except getting Trump, at any cost.”

A Democrat hasn’t won a Senate race in North Carolina since 2008. Meanwhile, Cooper, 68, hasn’t lost a North Carolina election going back to first running for the state House in the mid-1980s, leading to 16 years as attorney general and eight as governor through 2024.

Whatley, 57, previously worked in President George W. Bush’s administration, for then-North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole and as an energy lobbyist.

Cooper and his allies have centered campaign attacks on Whatley’s allegiance to the president and Trump policies, saying he backs higher tariffs and Medicaid spending reductions and must take blame for slow Hurricane Helene recovery aid.

Voting recently in Raleigh, Cooper said he wants to “make sure that I’m a strong, independent senator who can work with this president when I can, stand up to him when I need to and recognize that people are struggling right now.”

Whatley, Trump and other Republicans have blistered Cooper on criminal justice matters, accusing him of promoting soft-on-crime policies while governor. They’ve repeatedly highlighted last August’s fatal stabbing of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on a Charlotte light-rail train. Trump identified Zarutska’s mother in attendance at last week’s State of the Union address.

Cooper told reporters recently that his career is about “prosecuting violent criminals and keeping thousands of them behind bars.”

Tuesday’s election also includes primary elections in all but one of North Carolina’s U.S. House districts. They include a five-candidate GOP primary in the northeastern 1st Congressional District, which is currently represented by Democratic Rep. Don Davis, who faced no primary opposition.

The Republican-controlled General Assembly created last fall a more right-leaning 1st District to join Trump’s multistate redistricting campaign ahead of the 2026 elections to retain the House. Davis won in 2024 by less than 2 percentage points.