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Atrium, Novant, other hospital systems get millions in property tax breaks 

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Atrium, Novant, other hospital systems get millions in property tax breaks 


By Michelle Crouch

Co-published with the Charlotte Ledger

Yearly, Terry Taylor-Allen and her husband, William, pay property taxes on their bungalow in Charlotte’s Dilworth neighborhood. Though the invoice has skyrocketed since they moved in 30 years in the past, they know the cash helps faculties, police and different vital providers. 

The proprietor of the homes subsequent door, in the meantime, don’t pay a cent on these properties. 

That’s as a result of the homes on both aspect of them are owned by The Charlotte-Mecklenburg Hospital Authority, a governmental entity in any other case often called Atrium Well being. 

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As a result of it’s a hospital authority, Atrium — which had $8.9 billion in income in 2021 — doesn’t should pay taxes on property it owns in Charlotte and throughout the area. 

That’s true even when the land isn’t used for medical functions. 

Actually, one tax-exempt Atrium property in Cornelius is house to a PDQ Tenders rooster restaurant. You’ll pay taxes whenever you purchase the rooster tenders, however Atrium doesn’t pay taxes on the land the restaurant sits on.  

Charlotte’s different well being care big, Novant Well being, additionally will get important tax exemptions. As a result of it’s a nonprofit hospital and never a public one, it will get a tax break solely on property it might present it’s utilizing for its charitable function.

“If you concentrate on the cumulative whole of all the things (the hospitals) have taken off the tax rolls over time, that’s a Godzilla quantity,” stated Taylor-Allen, who lives on Fountain View subsequent to the positioning the place Atrium’s Carolinas Medical Middle is increasing. “Take into consideration all the college wants and the way a lot that cash might assist low-income individuals who don’t have well being care, housing or meals.” 

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As Mecklenburg County officers talk about a potential tax improve this 12 months, a Charlotte Ledger/N.C. Well being Information evaluation reveals that the 2 hospitals now personal properties assessed at greater than $2.4 billion — however which is tax-exempt — in Mecklenburg County alone. That’s primarily based on 2022 assessed values; it’s doubtless value extra primarily based on the 2023 values not too long ago mailed out. 

If Atrium and Novant had been totally taxed in 2022, they might have been Mecklenburg County’s fourth- and fifth-largest property taxpayers, respectively, after solely Duke Vitality, Wells Fargo and Financial institution of America. And they’d have contributed a further $23 million to town and county tax base, in line with calculations utilizing 2022 assessed values and tax charges. 

That’s sufficient to pay the salaries of 527 entry-level lecturers in Charlotte-Mecklenburg Colleges or 494 new law enforcement officials in Charlotte. In simply three years, it might pay for an elementary college on the CMS college bond checklist. 

“Wow. In the event that they’re getting that type of tax exemption, they should be held to a better customary,” stated Mecklenburg County Commissioner Elaine Powell. “They proceed to learn from tax exemptions though they’ve thousands and thousands banked away. It’s obscene.” 

After listening to the outcomes of the Ledger/N.C. Well being Information evaluation, Mecklenburg County Commissioner Susan Rodriguez-McDowell stated she requested county employees for a evaluation of hospital exemptions — particularly these on property not used for affected person care. 

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For his or her half, Atrium and Novant stated in emailed responses that they contribute a considerable quantity to the neighborhood, together with thousands and thousands in free and backed care. As well as, Atrium stated that it pays property taxes it’s not required to pay:

Because it pertains to taxes, it’s value noting that Atrium Well being truly goes above and past, on this regard. Whereas we’re technically exempt from all property taxes, Atrium Well being often pays thousands and thousands of {dollars} in property taxes — voluntarily. 

Estimated $1.8 billion in tax breaks statewide

The Charlotte Ledger/N.C. Well being Information evaluation exhibits that nonprofit and public hospitals personal exempt property assessed at $6.3 billion in North Carolina’s 5 most populous counties. If the hospitals had been totally taxed, these counties might gather a further $69 million in property taxes. 

Along with property tax exemptions, hospitals have their earnings taxes waived, obtain thousands and thousands in native and state sales-tax refunds and may elevate cash by way of tax-free bonds. Nonprofit and public North Carolina hospitals obtained an estimated $1.8 billion in tax breaks in 2019–20, in line with calculations by Johns Hopkins College researchers achieved for the N.C. state treasurer’s workplace. 

Tax exemptions had been granted to hospitals nationwide greater than a century in the past as a manner to make sure that they might keep open and proceed to serve the poor. The IRS says charitable hospitals can qualify for tax exemption so long as they function for public reasonably than personal curiosity and supply neighborhood advantages. 

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Three forms of N.C. hospitals

  • For-profit: Pay property taxes like another company. Instance: HCA Healthcare, which bought Asheville-based Mission Well being in 2019
  • Nonprofit: Can apply for property tax exemptions on property they use for his or her charitable function. Instance: Most giant N.C. well being care programs, together with Novant Well being, Duke Well being and Cone Well being
  • Hospital authorities: Authorities entities initially created to serve the poor. As items of presidency, any actual and private property they personal is exempt from taxation, and they don’t want to use for exemptions. Instance: The Charlotte-Mecklenburg Hospital Authority doing enterprise as Atrium Well being

As well being care programs have grown into multi-billion-dollar enterprises, nevertheless, a rising variety of critics in North Carolina and elsewhere say they more and more resemble for-profit firms and may do extra to justify their tax-exempt standing. 

In the event you embrace its earnings from Atrium Well being Wake Forest Baptist, Atrium’s whole income in 2021 was $12.9 billion, in line with audited monetary statements. In 2022, Atrium mixed with Advocate Aurora to turn into the nation’s fifth largest hospital system, with mixed annual revenues of $27 billion.

Novant had working revenues of $7.4 billion in 2021, in line with audited monetary statements. 

Atrium CEO Gene Woods took house $9.8 million in 2021, whereas Novant CEO Carl Armato’s whole compensation was $4.5 million. Novant and the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Hospital Authority had about $800 million every in reserves in 2021, monetary statements present. 

“They’re capable of reap large earnings, add to their multimillion-dollar reserves and pay their executives thousands and thousands of {dollars}, and but we nonetheless have an enormous want for extra neighborhood entry to well being care,” stated Rodriguez-McDowell, the county commissioner. 

“Are they actually giving the general public profit that they need to? I personally don’t see it.”  

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Rodriguez-McDowell and Powell had been the one native elected officers to vote no final 12 months when Atrium requested for and obtained $75 million in public funding for an “innovation district” that may home Charlotte’s first medical college. (The difficult settlement requires town and county to reimburse Atrium with 90 p.c of recent property taxes from growth generated by the mission. The district will probably be largely taxable, a metropolis spokesman stated.) 

County commissioners chairman George Dunlap, who appoints members to the hospital authority’s board, stated he believes the hospitals justify their exemptions with all they do.

“Each hospitals are an amazing profit to our neighborhood, particularly when you think about that a number of counties don’t have even one hospital,” he stated. “In addition they put so much into the neighborhood by supporting organizations and applications that profit the residents of Mecklenburg County.” 

Hospitals level to thousands and thousands in neighborhood profit 

In response to questions on tax exemptions, Atrium and Novant stated they’ve invested billions to assist the communities they serve.

In an announcement, Atrium stated it offered $875 million in neighborhood advantages in Mecklenburg County alone in 2021, a part of a complete of $2.46 billion throughout the system. The well being system stated neighborhood profit made up 19.1 p.c of its working bills in 2021.

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Atrium emphasised its “beneficiant charity care coverage,” which gives free care to uninsured sufferers with incomes as much as 200 p.c of the federal poverty stage. The hospital additionally famous that it generates different tax income for the state and the financial system as an entire:

As North Carolina’s largest employer, we have now almost a $5 billion payroll supporting our teammates dwelling within the state — and nearly half of that’s simply Mecklenburg County. In consequence, our greater than 58,000 teammates are utilizing these funds to pay their very own private earnings, property and gross sales taxes, along with the $190 million in annual payroll taxes we pay. (Learn Atrium’s full assertion right here.) 

In written responses to questions, Novant put its neighborhood profit at $464.4 million within the Charlotte market (together with the counties round Mecklenburg) and $1.1 billion systemwide. 

Novant additionally highlighted its monetary help coverage — “some of the beneficiant in North Carolina” — which it stated gives free care or care at a diminished value to uninsured sufferers who’ve a family earnings of as much as 300 p.c of the federal poverty stage. “Which means that an uninsured household of 4 making lower than $90,000 per 12 months is eligible for a one hundred pc write-off,” Novant stated. 

Novant added that it’s “actively addressing the deep and complicated social elements which have lengthy influenced entry to care and well being outcomes by investing in strategic partnerships with neighborhood organizations, together with native libraries, housing organizations, meals banks, minority-owned companies and extra.” (Learn Novant’s full assertion right here.) 

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Critics query calculations

Critics say hospitals calculate neighborhood profit in a manner that’s inflated and consists of objects that shouldn’t be counted as a result of they’ve little impact on area people well being wants.  

For instance, 75 p.c of Novant’s and 57 p.c of Atrium’s neighborhood profit whole is what they name Medicaid and Medicare “shortfall.” That’s the distinction between what the hospitals say is the price of take care of Medicaid and Medicare sufferers and the way a lot they obtain from the federal government to deal with these sufferers. Right here’s Atrium making that time: 

In lots of regards, we’re “value takers” versus “value makers” because it pertains to quantities the federal government pays for well being care providers…” As labor, tools, provides and inflation proceed to drive well being care prices greater, the hole between Medicare and Medicaid funds from the federal government and prices incurred to ship the standard care we offer has grown within the post-pandemic inflationary setting. Well being programs should take what’s given them and can’t negotiate the reimbursement charges with the federal government.

Novant stated calculation of neighborhood profit is outlined by the IRS, not well being programs, and the federal company’s methodology “acknowledges that the losses incurred by serving Medicare and Medicaid sufferers correspond to neighborhood profit goals.”   

The issue, in line with some well being coverage consultants, is that the IRS doesn’t say how hospitals ought to outline shortfall, so hospitals can base it on their costs. That might imply the upper they set their costs, the upper the worth of the care they’ll say they’re donating, though only a few individuals pay these listed costs. Some researchers have additionally famous that authorities reimbursement charges are speculated to be near the associated fee required to ship care.

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N.C. Treasurer Dale Folwell, whose workplace has printed a sequence of reviews vital of the state’s hospitals, stated “there’s completely no sunshine and no accountability” in relation to what hospitals report they’re giving again to their communities. 

“For these billions of {dollars} of tax advantages, nobody on the federal or state stage is wanting over this,” he stated. “Nobody is asking the questions.”

Folwell, a Republican, final month introduced he’s working for governor in 2024. Some hospital leaders quietly complain that he’s criticizing giant well being care firms to additional his political ambitions. 

A report printed by Folwell’s workplace and Johns Hopkins researchers discovered that the charity care offered by the vast majority of North Carolina’s giant hospitals equals lower than 60 p.c of the estimated worth of their tax breaks. 

Folwell additionally pointed to research that present North Carolina is without doubt one of the most costly states nationwide for well being care, and he criticized hospitals for suing sufferers to gather medical debt. 

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Nearly 20 p.c of households in Mecklenburg County have medical debt in collections, in contrast with a nationwide common of 13 p.c, in line with knowledge compiled by The City Institute. 

Hospital development comes at a value

Like different giant well being care programs, Atrium and Novant have been on a shopping for and constructing spree in latest many years. It’s a part of a nationwide development of hospitals increasing and consolidating. 

As hospitals gobble up land and property, these parcels come off the tax rolls. 

Tax information present Atrium, appearing as The Charlotte-Mecklenburg Hospital Authority, has added 93 acres in Mecklenburg County over the previous decade, bringing its whole actual property holdings within the county to about 460 acres. 

In the event you’ve pushed across the county, you’ve most likely seen a few of its development firsthand: the brand new, eight-story tower at Atrium Well being Pineville, a brand new emergency division within the Mountain Island Lake space and new medical plazas in Huntersville and Midtown — to call just a few examples. As well as, a number of multimillion-dollar initiatives are underway, together with building of town’s first medical college and the addition of a $893 million, 12-story mattress tower on Atrium’s important Charlotte campus.

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In Iredell County, authorities officers are bracing for the fallout after Novant Well being not too long ago introduced plans to buy two for-profit hospitals there. One was the county’s seventh largest taxpayer. 

The 2 services contributed $883,111 in metropolis and county property taxes in 2022, stated Iredell County Tax Assessor Fran Elliott. As soon as Novant applies for exemptions, native funds writers will both have to chop that quantity from their budgets or gather extra from different taxpayers.

“That’s going to kick us,” Elliott stated. 

Nonprofit hospitals should show charitable use

Below N.C. Statute 105-278.8, property owned by a nonprofit hospital like Novant can keep away from taxes whether it is “truly and completely used for charitable hospital functions.” 

Meaning nonprofit hospitals will be requested to pay taxes for vacant land, however as soon as they construct a facility that’s offering medical providers on the positioning, they’ll apply for an exemption. 

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Over time, tax officers throughout the state have often battled with nonprofit hospitals about whether or not a selected use helps a hospital’s charitable functions, stated Christopher McLaughlin, a professor of public legislation and authorities on the UNC Faculty of Authorities who research tax exemptions.

In a single case that went to court docket, Moses H. Cone Memorial Hospital in Greensboro was capable of get an exemption for a daycare middle, arguing that it wanted the middle to recruit and retain certified workers.

Ought to they qualify as nonprofits?

In recent times, tax officers nationwide are extra typically questioning the primary a part of the equation: whether or not hospitals ought to qualify as nonprofits in any respect.  

In a single latest case, a Pennsylvania court docket dominated in February that 4 hospitals there shouldn’t be exempt from native property taxes as a result of they didn’t show they had been working as purely public charities. In its resolution, the court docket famous that diverting cash to workers by way of “eye popping” extreme salaries and fringe advantages was proof of a revenue motive.

Ge Bai, an accounting and well being coverage professor on the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Faculty of Public Well being who labored on the treasurer’s charity care report, expects the Pennsylvania case to have a “rippling impact.” 

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“It units a precedent for different native and state governments which might be inquisitive about pursuing extra accountability from nonprofit hospitals, particularly people who have collected plenty of wealth and revenue and have questionable supply of charity care or neighborhood profit,” Bai stated. 

UNC’s McLaughlin stated N.C. tax officers ought to ask hospitals to show they do in actual fact qualify for exemptions as a nonprofit. 

“Similar to people have to indicate their federal tax return from final 12 months to qualify for the aged or disabled homestead exclusion, it appears to me that we should always maintain nonprofit hospitals to the identical customary and say, ‘Present me your financials,’” he stated. “That will imply sharing financials and particulars of their operations so the county could make an applicable dedication to find out if their practices are in actual fact nonprofit.”

When Atrium bought the positioning of this rooster tenders restaurant in 2020, Mecklenburg was denied $9,200 and Cornelius misplaced $3,300 in annual tax income. The well being system plans to construct a 200,000-square-foot hospital, Atrium Well being Lake Norman, on the property.
Credit score: Michelle Smolowitz

Atrium’s particular standing 

For hospital authorities like Atrium, it doesn’t matter if a property is getting used for a charitable function or not. Below state statute, hospital authorities — like different governmental entities — merely should personal the parcel.

“As soon as they show they personal it, it’s achieved,” McLaughlin stated. 

That enables Atrium to obtain computerized exemptions on any property it owns, together with vacant land, 20-plus properties it owns in Dilworth and the land with the rooster restaurant — all websites that is perhaps questioned in the event that they had been owned by a nonprofit hospital as an alternative of a public one. 

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(Atrium makes use of the properties to deal with college students or residents enrolled in Atrium Well being applications or as administrative workplaces, a spokesman stated. And it’s planning to construct a 200,000-square-foot hospital, Atrium Well being Lake Norman, on the rooster restaurant website.) 

“If the Hospital Authority requests {that a} parcel owned by them turn into exempt, the County marks it as exempt, per N.C. statute. No additional clarification is required,” a Mecklenburg County spokesman defined in an e mail. 

As well as, as a result of N.C. legislation lets county hospital authorities broaden inside 10 miles of the county line, the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Hospital Authority (Atrium) additionally avoids thousands and thousands of {dollars} of taxes in Union, Cabarrus, Gaston and Lincoln counties. Some is vacant land the authority has held for years that will doubtless be taxed if it was as an alternative owned by a nonprofit hospital or a personal proprietor.

In Cabarrus County, for instance, the authority owns property valued in 2022 at $416.4 million, together with $11.7 million in vacant land. Atrium prevented $5.1 million in property taxes there final 12 months, our evaluation exhibits. 

As Atrium identified, nevertheless, it doesn’t take full benefit of the privilege afforded by the statute. 

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In its assertion, Atrium stated it has traditionally paid voluntary taxes “on properties that aren’t a part of a well being care facility or its surrounding campus.” 

The Ledger/N.C. Well being Information discovered that Atrium, appearing because the hospital authority, paid not less than $840,000 taxes in 2022 on 36 Mecklenburg properties it owns that might be exempt, in line with county tax information. These parcels embrace the Penguin Drive-in restaurant on East Boulevard, a CVS pharmacy on Johnston Highway and two strip facilities with Harris Teeter shops.

Atrium claimed in its assertion that its voluntary funds quantity to almost 30 p.c of what its whole Mecklenburg tax invoice would doubtless be if it had been totally taxed. Nonetheless, our calculations utilizing a database of Atrium properties offered by the tax workplace confirmed a smaller proportion: 5 p.c. 

A hospital spokesman stated there are two doubtless causes for the discrepancy: First, Atrium owns property beneath names that “will not be simply recognizable as being owned by the hospital system.” As well as, its calculations embrace taxes it pays by way of rental agreements with different landowners, whereas the Ledger/N.C. Well being Information evaluation included solely parcels that Atrium owns. 

When first requested about properties that Atrium paid taxes on, Mecklenburg County Tax Assessor Ken Joyner stated he didn’t know if hospital leaders had been willingly paying these taxes to be a very good citizen or in the event that they had been merely unaware these properties might be exempt. 

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After the interview, the tax workplace stated in a follow-up e mail that Atrium had since requested for exemptions on the three particular properties that the Ledger/N.C. Well being Information inquired about, together with one on Mount Holly-Huntersville Highway with a Harris Teeter. 

For that one, Atrium desires to keep away from taxes on the land, however “particularly requested that the retail portion be taxed,” the tax workplace stated.

Atrium uncommon amongst hospital authorities

There are eight different hospital authorities in North Carolina, in line with registrations filed with the N.C. Secretary of State. None has expanded the way in which The Charlotte-Mecklenburg Hospital Authority has.

Michael High-quality, a well being care legal professional primarily based in Louisville, Kentucky, who follows property tax exemption legislation, stated hospital authorities had been initially created by native governments to supply medical take care of the poor. Even immediately, they are usually in rural and low-income city areas, he stated, and most concentrate on serving the neediest sufferers. 

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“For a hospital authority to develop and broaden the way in which Atrium has, that’s uncommon,” High-quality stated. “Sooner or later, one thing received them on the trail to being the Pac-Man as an alternative of the pellet. That most likely comes from very succesful administration and the regulatory benefits of being a quasi-governmental entity — I’m certain that has contributed to their success and development.”

High-quality stated legal guidelines governing hospital authorities differ significantly from state to state. It’s not clear what number of different states provide tax breaks for property that’s vacant or getting used for a non-medical function.

“If I had been Novant, I might be making individuals conscious of this discrepancy,” High-quality stated. “I might be having conversations in Raleigh.”  

Some governments ask hospitals to pony up

Some state and native governments throughout the nation have enacted laws asking hospitals and different nonprofits to do extra in trade for his or her tax breaks. 

Illinois, Oregon, Utah and Nevada all require hospitals to satisfy particular necessities in trade for his or her tax exemptions, in line with the Nationwide Academy for State Well being Coverage. The Oregon legislation, for instance, units minimal neighborhood profit spending ranges for every nonprofit hospital within the state, requires hospitals to supply monetary help to these with incomes as much as 400 p.c of the federal poverty stage and creates new medical debt protections for sufferers. 

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Different jurisdictions ask hospitals to make funds in lieu of taxes to assist cowl their prices of offering providers. 

Boston, for instance, asks its largest tax-exempt organizations to contribute that equal 25 p.c of what they might pay in property taxes if their property was taxable. Though town permits nonprofits to use neighborhood profit credit for as much as half of the assessed fee, town nonetheless obtained a further $35 million from these funds.

In New Jersey, after a tax court docket decided that trendy hospitals didn’t meet the standards for tax exemption in 2021, lawmakers required hospitals to start paying their native governments $3 per day for every hospital mattress and $300 per day for every satellite tv for pc emergency care facility.  

There may be not less than one instance of a fee in lieu of taxes in North Carolina: The town of Durham collects a $400,000 fee from Duke College to assist cowl the price of fireplace safety, in line with town’s chief monetary officer, Tim Flora.

Attempting for change in North Carolina 

Folwell, served within the N.C. Home from 2005 to 2013, stated he tried a number of occasions over time to push by way of payments to cap hospital gross sales tax refunds or that requested extra of hospitals in return for his or her tax exemptions. 

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Every time, well being care programs fought the modifications, he stated. 

Extra not too long ago, Folwell has been holding information conferences to assist a invoice launched in each N.C. legislative chambers this 12 months referred to as the Medical Debt De-Weaponization Act. 

Amongst different provisions, it might cap most rates of interest on medical debt, restrict aggressive techniques to gather medical debt and require hospitals to supply free care to these whose family earnings is at or beneath 200 p.c of the federal poverty stage. 

The objective is straightforward, Folwell stated: “For hospitals to start out providing a stage of charity care equal to the billions of {dollars} of tax profit that they get from this neighborhood and this state.”

HOSPITAL PROPERTY TAX EXEMPTIONS

The Charlotte Ledger/N.C. Well being Information analyzed county databases of exempt hospital property to find out how a lot the hospitals would pay in property taxes in every county in the event that they weren’t exempt. These numbers don’t embrace enterprise private property owned by the hospitals, which might add thousands and thousands extra to the worth of their exemptions.

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Table shows assessed value of exempt hospital-owned properties in Mecklenburg, Wake, Forsyth, Guilford, Cumberland, Cabarrus, Union, Lincoln and Gaston Counties, where property taxes are not collected.
*Guilford County Tax Assessor Ben Chavis stated that is doubtless an underrepresentation as a result of his workplace doesn’t spend plenty of time assessing exempt property, because it’s not taxable. Credit score: Charlotte Ledger/ NC Well being Information

Mecklenburg County

Credit score: Charlotte Ledger/ NC Well being Information

This text is a part of a partnership between The Charlotte Ledger and North Carolina Well being Information to provide authentic well being care reporting targeted on the Charlotte space. For extra data, or to assist this effort with a tax-free reward, click on right here.

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WATCH: Steamy and Stormy in North Carolina on Friday, Heat Advisory in the eastern Triad

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WATCH: Steamy and Stormy in North Carolina on Friday, Heat Advisory in the eastern Triad


Friday, August 2: High humidity remains Friday with highs reaching into the 90s and feels like temperatures expected near 100 degrees. A Heat Advisory for the heat index reaching between 105 to 107 degrees is in effect from 11 a.m. Friday until 8 p.m. in the easter Piedmont Triad. Spotty to scattered storms may also bring a severe threat for the afternoon. Storms that do become severe may bring damaging wind and hail.



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Body of 20-year-old North Carolina man recovered after 400-foot fall at Grand Canyon National Park

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Body of 20-year-old North Carolina man recovered after 400-foot fall at Grand Canyon National Park


GRAND CANYON NATIONAL PARK, Ariz. — The body of a North Carolina man who fell 400 feet (122 meters) near a scenic viewpoint on the South Rim of Grand Canyon National Park has been recovered, authorities said Thursday.

Park rangers said they received a report about a park visitor falling from the Pipe Creek Vista around 10:30 a.m. Wednesday. They said the body of Abel Joseph Mejia, 20, of Hickory, was later recovered about a quarter-mile from the overlook.

Park officials said Mejia accidentally fell when he was near the edge of the rim. The National Park Service and the Coconino County medical examiner’s office are investigating.

Authorities said park staff encourages visitors to stay on designated trails and walkways, keep a safe distance of at least 6 feet (1.8 meters) from the edge of the rim and stay behind railings and fences at overlooks.

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‘Very competitive’: Inside the Kamala Harris campaign’s plan to flip NC, defy history

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‘Very competitive’: Inside the Kamala Harris campaign’s plan to flip NC, defy history


Kamala Harris’ new presidential campaign views North Carolina not just as a potential bonus prize on the electoral map this fall, but the possible linchpin in her path to victory against her Republican rival, former President Donald Trump.

Democrats started spending money early on in a state they insisted they could win in the presidential contest. Now senior campaign advisers tell McClatchy that Harris’ replacement of President Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee has not only scrambled the race, but the map as well, raising the odds that Americans will be waiting Election Night on the results from North Carolina and Arizona — not just Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — to learn who has won the White House.

A senior campaign official said that North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper’s decision on Monday night, publicly withdrawing himself from consideration to join the ticket as Harris’ vice president, had no impact on the calculus driving their strategy in the state.

That strategy, officials said, has been fueled instead by internal data focused on the kinds of new voters moving into the state, modeling the electorate and their propensity to vote, and examining special election and off-year election results — data that holds regardless of Cooper’s choice and that campaign officials believe is far more predictive than head-to-head polling conducted months in advance.

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Vice President Kamala Harris arrives for a rally during a campaign stop at Westover High School on Thursday, July 18, 2024 in Fayetteville, N.C.

Vice President Kamala Harris arrives for a rally during a campaign stop at Westover High School on Thursday, July 18, 2024 in Fayetteville, N.C.

And all of that data is telling Harris’ advisers that North Carolina’s fast-changing electorate will make for a “very competitive” race in November, the official added.

“I don’t really view it as a Blue Wall path, or a Southern path, or a Western path. I don’t think that’s how people should think about this. There are seven or-so states, all of which have been extremely close cycle after cycle,” Dan Kanninen, battleground state director for the Harris campaign, said in an interview.

“They’ve been effectively toss-ups,” Kanninen added. “So I think all seven of those are gonna be close. The difference is, we have built an infrastructure designed to win a close race. The Trump campaign has not.”

DATA DRIVING CONFIDENCE

The Biden campaign — now transformed into the Harris campaign — has made frequent stops in North Carolina. Harris will make her eighth visit of the year and her first as a presidential candidate to the state next week, and will bring her yet-to-be-announced running mate to Raleigh with her.

On paper, Harris faces an uphill battle in a state that has gone for a Democratic candidate for president only twice in the last 50 years: for Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Barack Obama in 2008.

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Since the last presidential election, North Carolina Republicans have grown their registration numbers by 156,000, while Democrats have shed 126,000 registrants, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections – numbers that on their face appear to challenge Harris in her quest to exceed Biden’s 2020 performance, when he lost the state to Trump by 1.3% of the vote, or 74,000 votes, his narrowest loss that year.

That is just the continuation of a long trend that began in 2016, when Democrats held a voter advantage of nearly 645,000 over Republicans, said Matt Mercer, communications director for the North Carolina Republican Party.

“If you want to talk about the impact that Donald Trump has had in North Carolina,” Mercer said, “it’s Democrats shedding half a million voters to either Republicans or unaffiliated voters. That is a stark repudiation of a party that essentially controlled North Carolina for a century.”

But the Harris campaign told McClatchy and N&O their data indicates voter trends across the state are working in their favor, with 57% of newly registered voters in North Carolina since 2020 being millennial age or younger, 34% identifying as Black, Hispanic, Asian American or Pacific Islander, and 38.7% being registered as unaffiliated with either party — three cohorts that are increasingly breaking for Harris in their polling.

Campaign leadership is drilling down at the county level on which districts saw Nikki Haley — Trump’s strongest and most moderate challenger in the Republican primary — overperform her statewide total, with 25% or more of the GOP vote, including in New Hanover, typically seen as a state bellwether, and Union, an historically conservative area.

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Even still, Kanninen said registration numbers don’t necessarily predict “the electorate that will show up in the fall,” noting the campaign is planning an aggressive push to maximize the state’s one-stop voting system, where residents can turn up at a polling site both to register and vote at the same time.

“What I will tell you is that the on-the-ground enthusiasm that we see in North Carolina has been incredibly strong — maybe historic — in the past week, and we’ve had a campaign that’s been built to capitalize that, in a way the Trump campaign has simply been absent,” Kanninen said. He pointed to a gathering to train volunteers in Greenville days after Harris entered the race that drew nearly 100 people — a relatively sizable crowd in a small city that surprised the campaign.

While both Hillary Clinton, the 2016 Democratic nominee, and Biden both ultimately invested in North Carolina, neither did so until much later in the election cycle, Kanninen noted, placing those campaigns further behind in building the infrastructure he said would be needed to win. The Biden-Harris campaign has been investing in the state since February.

Building out early has allowed the campaign to reach out to a key voting bloc — rural Black voters — earlier than they would have otherwise, and also begin their effort to “cut the margins” of Trump’s support among moderate Republicans and “middle partisans” in rural counties, Kanninen said.

“We put into place infrastructure early — leadership teams on the ground in February and March, building robust teams throughout the spring, now to the point of having 150 staff in North Carolina that will get much, much bigger before the end of the summer,” Kanninen said. “We’re at scale, and building to a greater scale, so that when people start paying much closer attention after the convention and beyond, we’ll have the people, the resources, the volunteers to capitalize on that and drive it, which really matters in a close race.”

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ROBINSON ‘MADE POSSIBLE’ BY TRUMP

Confident that the data supports a potential victory, Harris’ campaign has settled on a clear strategy in the state: tying Trump to the Republican candidate for governor, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

North Carolinians have a long history of “ticket-splitting,” choosing candidates of different parties down ballot. But Kanninen argued that Robinson was a creature of Trump’s making, indelibly tied to the former president.

“I don’t think it’s a one-off that Mark Robinson exists in a vacuum from Donald Trump. I think he is made possible by Donald Trump,” Kanninen said.

“Donald Trump endorsed him, and vice versa. He spoke at the convention,” Kanninen added. “And I think there’s no escaping the fact that the sort of politics you see from Robinson looks, feels and sounds just like Donald Trump. And I think that will be on the ballot.”

The Harris campaign believes that Robinson’s record — calling LGBTQ+ Americans “filth,” stating he would not compromise on abortion restrictions and quoting Hitler on social media — will prove toxic to moderate Republicans, Republican women and independents, recreating the coalition that challenged Trump and supported Haley in the GOP primary.

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“Those voters are really turned off by that sort of toxic MAGA rhetoric, and Mark Robinson is a direct throughline to Donald Trump. They see that as a sort of MAGA ticket, so to speak,” Kanninen said. “I think that is a winning playbook for people who are new to the state, but do not ascribe to those kinds of politics.”

Mercer said the state Republican Party is prepared for the attacks. “It’s a campaign, right? Both sides do their best to work to define their opponent,” he said.

But the Trump campaign does appear to be taking threats to its hold on North Carolina seriously, taking out a television ad buy in the state starting Thursday.

“I think you’re always looking at solidifying your position,” Mercer said of the ad buy, “and, despite having a strong position, you don’t want to get complacent, either. So it’s treating it with the appropriate levels of concern.”

Neither side is expressing exuberant confidence. Kanninen, for his part, acknowledged the race for the state would come down to the wire.

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“There’s some political gravity that I think is true in a place like North Carolina, or in some of the other core battlegrounds,” he added. “They’ve been really close races, they’re destined to be really close races.”

McClatchyDC reporter David Catanese contributed reporting.



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