Florida Democrats had their best election night in years Tuesday, flipping two legislative seats.

Analysts and politicians point to the combination of strong candidates, low turnout special elections, rising gas prices compounding existing affordability issues and the ongoing conflict in Iran, which helped offset the registration and financial advantages of Republicans.  

Also, historically, an unpopular president heading towards the midterm elections is always tricky for the party in power.

These factors may justify some optimism for the minority party in the state heading into the November election cycle, which could see rematches from Tuesday’s contests.

University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett said at the campaign level Florida Democrats did a good job getting solid candidates who didn’t make mistakes and stuck to the message of affordability.

Also, there is the timing, as historically the sitting president’s party more often loses seats in midterm elections at the congressional and state legislative levels. Jewett added that unpopular presidents lose even more seats, noting that since the 2024 presidential election, Democrats have flipped more than two dozen seats in Republican or battleground states.

“President Trump’s unpopularity cast a long, dark shadow over these Republican candidates in these races,” Jewett said. “And so, even if you had decent candidates, it was just too much of an uphill battle because of President Trump’s unpopularity.”

One of those Democrats who won did so in a district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-lago estate 

Democrat Emily Gregory of Jupiter led by 2.38 percentage points with 33,429 ballots cast in the House District 87 contest along the east coast of Palm Beach County. The district includes the home of President Donald Trump.

Gregory is a Treasure Coast native, a military spouse and mother of three with a master’s degree in public health from Columbia University who operates a small fitness business.

Tampa Democrat Brian Nathan, a U.S. Navy veteran and organizer with the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, was up 0.51 percentage points in the state Senate District 14 contest in Hillsborough County, where 80,016 votes were cast.

The results remain unofficial.

Republican Hilary Holley easily won the third legislative special election, House District 51 in Polk County, by more than 8 percentage points.

In the Tampa State Senate race, Jewett said there was evidence that Republicans seemed to be doing well in early voting, noting GOP candidate Josie Tomkow, a former House member, had good name recognition and funding.  

“But it appears that the Democrats that turn out were strongly unified and (no party affiliation voters) must have gone strongly Democratic as well — and it seems likely that at least some Republicans voted Democratic,” Jewett said.

House Speaker-designate Sam Garrison, R-Fleming Island, who led GOP efforts for the House special elections, issued a statement Tuesday night that Republican Jon Maples ran an “extremely strong campaign” for the Palm Beach County seat, but faced “low Republican turnout due to awkward special election timing,” and also questioned “despicable, dark-money” attacks against the candidate. 

Garrison added, “We will learn from today’s results and see you in November.”

Florida Republican and Democratic party chairs react to the election’s results 

Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power said the party is “proud” of its special election candidates and will continue to “engage, mobilize and lead.”

“Republicans are leading on the issues that matter the most to Floridians — public safety, economic growth, meaningful property tax reform, expanded school choice, and strong environmental stewardship,” Power said in a statement. “Our record isn’t just strong, it is unmatched. With a Republican voter registration advantage of nearly 1.5 million, we are well-positioned and fully energized as we head toward November.”

Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried hopes the result makes Republican lawmakers pause as they approach Gov. Ron DeSantis’ call for a special session to redraw congressional district lines the week of April 20.

“Voters are tired of one-party rule and attempts to steal their votes,” Fried said in a conference call Wednesday with reporters. “They are tired of the skyrocketing costs and the chaos in the news this year.”

Fried also said the state party, which still faces a need to cut into the Republican supermajorities in the Legislature in the fall election, has been on the phones with national Democratic groups that have disengaged from Florida politics the past couple of cycles.