The National Hurricane Center increased the chances of a tropical system developing in an area from Hispaniola through the Florida Peninsula to 60% over the next seven days.

While the tropical wave the center is watching is several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands and is being held back by dry Saharan air, forecasters believe it will break free of that restriction as it moves west toward the Caribbean Sea where exceptionally warm waters beckon.

An early Tuesday forecast said a tropical depression could form later this week while the system is near the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.

“Interest in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system,” NHC senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake in his 2 a.m. Tuesday outlook.

More: Hurricane season 2024: More than 1 million new Florida residents may not understand storm prep

The next name on the 2024 hurricane list is Debby, followed by Ernesto and Francine.

National Weather Service meteorologists in Miami are also watching the tropical wave over the central Atlantic Ocean, but said there is a big gap between weather models as far as what its future holds. More “disorganized” solutions favor a western track into the Gulf of Mexico. Models that show the system consolidating and becoming better organized favor it going more easterly with some taking it well east of the Florida Peninsula.

“This makes sense, as a deeper system is more likely to ‘feel’ the temporary weakness in the mid-level ridge which is expected to develop this weekend,” NWS Miami meteorologists wrote in a morning forecast. “All that being said, given the wave is currently quite disorganized and broad with a defined low-level center yet to be established, there is no real compelling reason to side with one cap or the other.”

Also, NWS Miami forecasters emphasized that even if a more organized storm develops, it doesn’t necessarily imply greater impacts to South Florida as the region could be on the drier west side of the system. At the same time, a sloppy system could result in more rainfall.

More: Hurricane Beryl’s rapid intensification has emergency managers mulling survival timelines

While scattered showers are forecast Tuesday and into Wednesday for Palm Beach County, the Palm Beach International is down 3.34 inches of rain for the month of July as of Monday. Just 1.9 inches of rain had fallen through July 29 making this month the 14th driest in records that date back 131 years.

Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate and how growth affects South Florida’s environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism; subscribe today.

The survey of likely Florida voters from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows Donald Trump ahead of Harris by a robust 7-point margin, 49% to 42%.

Vice President Kamala Harris may have energized Florida’s Democratic base, but a poll released Tuesday morning suggests her candidacy hasn’t yet changed voter preferences in the state.

The survey of likely Florida voters from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows Donald Trump ahead of Harris by a robust 7-point margin, 49% to 42%.

“It’s not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by three points in 2020,” Michael Binder, a UNF political science professor and the polling lab’s director, said in a prepared statement. “With Harris just entering the race, enthusiasm amongst her supporters has livened up what was once thought to be an easy win for Trump in Florida.”

The poll is the first survey of the state electorate since President Joe Biden opted to not seek the party’s nomination in August at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. In the past week or so, Harris has quickly moved to lock up Biden’s delegates and unite the party behind her, while reportedly raising more than $200 million.

Presidential campaign 2024: Harris volunteers pack Delray office to get out the vote for the VP

Florida Democrats insist they will put ‘Florida in play’

Her candidacy has unleashed a wave of enthusiasm, Florida Democrats say, that has led to more than 11,000 new volunteers to step forward to help the Harris campaign. This past weekend saw phone banks and other activities across the state marking 100 days of campaign blitzing until Nov. 5.

Congressman Maxwell Frost, an Orlando Democrat and member of Harris’ national advisory board, insisted it’s not “just a talking point” in claiming that Florida is “already a state that is in play.”

“Look, here in Florida, we saw unprecedented actions from volunteers from across the entire state, in blue counties and in red counties,” Frost said. “So much energy. People are excited to get out there and vote for the vice president to be the next President of the United States.”

Hurris surging: Kamala Harris campaign deployed 1,400 Florida volunteers during ‘Weekend of Action’

Frost said the campaign will stress that Floridians’ votes “matter” and will highlight a record including climate crisis measures and noteworthy strides in reducing Black and Latino unemployment while bolstering fortunes for minority businesses.

Congresswoman Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach said there’s been “an overwhelming groundswell of support” across the country, in Florida and in Palm Beach County, Trump’s home county.

Frankel noted that in the United States, one-third of women of reproductive age now live in states with abortion bans, including 4 million in Florida. She said the state’s new restrictions are leading to dangerous miscarriages and 68,000 forced pregnancies.

“Even his neighbors don’t want Donald Trump’s extreme Project 2025 agenda, and that includes a nationwide abortion ban,” she said.

“Listen, Floridians want the freedom to make their own health care decisions,” Frankel added, saying Harris would sign the Women’s Health Protection Act to secure access to legal abortions across the United States. “Women want to be in charge of when or whether to start or grow a family.”

UNF poll found closer U.S. Senate race, wide support for constitutional amendments

The poll, however, pointed to a much narrower gap between U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, who is seeking re-election, and one of his potential Democratic rivals, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The GOP incumbent topped the former Democratic congresswoman from Miami by just 4 percentage points, 47% to 43%.

That lead was just inside the margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.

Two high-profile constitutional amendments on the November ballot appear to enjoy the electorate’s favor.

Some 64% said they were a “yes” vote on Amendment 3, which would legalize adult recreational marijuana use, with just 31% saying no. Support for Amendment 4 to protect access to abortions polled even higher — 69% saying yes to only 23% saying no.

Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at afins@pbpost.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.

CNN
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A federal judge has permanently blocked the restrictions Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Republican lawmakers placed on handling race-related issues in workplace training – part of the controversial Individual Freedom Act, better known as the “Stop WOKE Act.”

The act was one of several bills the Republican governor signed in 2022 as part of his war on “woke ideology.” It was intended to prevent teachings or mandatory workplace activities that suggest a person is privileged or oppressed based on their race, color, sex or national origin.

On Friday, Chief US District Judge Mark Walker issued a two-page order granting a permanent injunction against the law’s workplace training provisions. The order says the law “violates free speech rights under the First and Fourteenth Amendments to the US Constitution.”

Walker first issued the preliminary injunction to block the state from enforcing prohibitions on mandatory workplace activities and trainings in August 2022, saying the act “discriminates on the basis of viewpoint in violation of the First Amendment and is impermissibly vague in violation of the Fourteenth Amendment.”

The judge’s Friday order came after a federal appeals court in March upheld the injunction, agreeing part of the law infringed on employers’ free speech rights.

At the time, DeSantis’ office issued a statement disagreeing with the ruling, describing it as upholding the idea that “companies have a right to indoctrinate their employees with racist and discriminatory ideologies.”

The challenge to the law was brought in June 2022 by several Florida businesses, represented by Protect Democracy, which describes itself as a “nonpartisan, anti-authoritarianism group.”

“(This is) a powerful reminder that the First Amendment cannot be warped to serve the interests of elected officials,” Shalini Goel Agarwal, counsel for Protect Democracy, said in a post on X on Friday. “Censoring business owners from speaking in favor of ideas that politicians don’t like is a move ripped straight from the authoritarian playbook.”

DeSantis has championed the “Stop WOKE Act” as standing up against what he called “indoctrination.” He frequently referred to the law during his unsuccessful run for president, with the slogan that Florida was where “woke goes to die.”

The term has turned into a polarizing word in the US political climate, describing awareness – particularly about history, oppression and social justice issues – for some, while being a pejorative used to denounce progressive action and certain teachings about race for others.

DeSantis did not oppose the motion to make the March ruling permanent, but during a news conference Monday in Tampa, he reiterated Florida’s right to provide protections for employees.

“If they are doing woke training, which is basically discriminating against folks on the basis of race, you have the right to opt out of that. It’s not a question of what the company can say,” he said. “They can say whatever they want.”