Florida
Hurricane center increases odds that tropical system will develop this week to 60%
Storm surge is a killer in hurricanes but can be avoided
FOX Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross explains why storm surge can be higher on the west coast of Florida than the east coast.
The National Hurricane Center increased the chances of a tropical system developing in an area from Hispaniola through the Florida Peninsula to 60% over the next seven days.
While the tropical wave the center is watching is several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands and is being held back by dry Saharan air, forecasters believe it will break free of that restriction as it moves west toward the Caribbean Sea where exceptionally warm waters beckon.
An early Tuesday forecast said a tropical depression could form later this week while the system is near the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.
“Interest in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system,” NHC senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake in his 2 a.m. Tuesday outlook.
More: Hurricane season 2024: More than 1 million new Florida residents may not understand storm prep
The next name on the 2024 hurricane list is Debby, followed by Ernesto and Francine.
National Weather Service meteorologists in Miami are also watching the tropical wave over the central Atlantic Ocean, but said there is a big gap between weather models as far as what its future holds. More “disorganized” solutions favor a western track into the Gulf of Mexico. Models that show the system consolidating and becoming better organized favor it going more easterly with some taking it well east of the Florida Peninsula.
“This makes sense, as a deeper system is more likely to ‘feel’ the temporary weakness in the mid-level ridge which is expected to develop this weekend,” NWS Miami meteorologists wrote in a morning forecast. “All that being said, given the wave is currently quite disorganized and broad with a defined low-level center yet to be established, there is no real compelling reason to side with one cap or the other.”
Also, NWS Miami forecasters emphasized that even if a more organized storm develops, it doesn’t necessarily imply greater impacts to South Florida as the region could be on the drier west side of the system. At the same time, a sloppy system could result in more rainfall.
More: Hurricane Beryl’s rapid intensification has emergency managers mulling survival timelines
While scattered showers are forecast Tuesday and into Wednesday for Palm Beach County, the Palm Beach International is down 3.34 inches of rain for the month of July as of Monday. Just 1.9 inches of rain had fallen through July 29 making this month the 14th driest in records that date back 131 years.
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate and how growth affects South Florida’s environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism; subscribe today.
Florida
Iranian drones in Cuba could threaten South Florida, officials warn
An Iranian-made drone displayed at the Biltmore Hotel served as a stark warning from national security advocates and South Florida officials who say Cuba’s growing military ties with Iran could pose a threat to the United States.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, chairman of the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, joined U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Florida, to highlight concerns about what they say are roughly 300 Iranian drones that have been delivered to Cuba.
Standing alongside one of the drones, Bush described the weapon as among the deadliest battlefield threats faced by American forces in recent years.
“Most loss of life of the U.S. military than any single weapon that exists over the last 15 years,” Bush said.
Gimenez warned that the drones’ capabilities make them particularly concerning because of their ability to carry significant explosive payloads over long distances.
“This particular model, there is about over 100 pounds of explosives,” Gimenez said. “That’s a pretty big bang. That’s why they call them kamikaze drones — they crash into their target and they explode.”
According to Gimenez, the drones can reach speeds of about 115 miles per hour and travel more than 1,000 miles, placing South Florida well within range. He said the aircraft could also reach the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay and other cities throughout the southeastern United States, including Tallahassee and Atlanta.
The congressman said one of the primary concerns is the potential for Iran-style drone warfare tactics, in which large numbers of drones are launched simultaneously to overwhelm air defense systems.
While the United States has sophisticated defense systems capable of intercepting incoming drones, Gimenez noted that a successful strike may require only one, or a handful of aircraft to penetrate those defenses.
The event was organized by United Against Nuclear Iran, which has sought to draw attention to expanding military and strategic cooperation between Iran and countries aligned with its interests, including Cuba.
Supporters of the group’s effort say the growing presence of Iranian military technology in the Western Hemisphere warrants increased attention from policymakers and defense officials.
For South Florida residents, the warning underscores the region’s proximity to Cuba and the continuing role the island nation plays in broader geopolitical tensions involving the United States and its adversaries.
Florida
Video shows man attack Florida deputies in snake-and-gator-infested canal, sheriff says
Body camera video shows a man fighting with Florida deputies who were trying to rescue him from a snake-and-alligator-infested canal, authorities said.
The incident happened July 3 when Flagler County Sheriff’s Office deputies found a man lying on the ground shirtless in front of an elementary school.
The man, 47-year-old Ryan McMinn, who had been then subject of a previous welfare check, fled on foot, the sheriff’s office said.
A short time later, authorities received a call about a man trying to climb on the side of a house in Palm Coast.
Deputies responded and found McMinn near the canal behind the house and when he spotted the deputies, McMinn ran into the canal and started swimming, authorities said.
“What’s your name?” a deputy asks him in the bodycam footage, as McMinn is seen swimming backwards. “You getting tired?”
Officials said McMinn was ordered to get out of the water multiple times but refused, and when he started to show signs of exhaustion, two deputies went into the canal to pull him out.
The video released by the sheriff’s office on Monday shows the deputies wading into the water before a struggle ensues.
Authorities said McMinn tried to grab one deputy’s head to push it under the water, before he tried to grab the neck of the other deputy.
The deputies were able to get control of McMinn and get him safely to shore.
He was hospitalized before he was arrested and booked into jail on two counts of battery on a law enforcement officer.
“Battering a Deputy Sheriff will guarantee you the loss of your freedom and a trip to jail,” Flagler Sheriff Rick Staly said. “These deputies went into the water to rescue this guy, and he responded by fighting them. I commend our deputies for their willingness to get in a canal that usually have snakes and gators and pull this guy to safety before he drowned.”
Florida
Heat alerts expand across Florida as dangerous temperatures return
The Sunshine State closed out the first month of meteorological summer with a mixed-bag of temperatures, as daily thunderstorm activity helped to keep some communities cooler while others reported one of their hottest Junes on record.
The contrasting observations across the state highlights just how localized Florida’s weather can be, with the sometimes cooler than average temperatures occurring just miles away from heat islands.
Clermont, in Central Florida, recorded its warmest June when compared to typical values, finishing about 4 degrees above average for the month. Meanwhile, Pensacola was the coolest major metro area across the state, ending the month approximately 2 degrees below average.
Cooler than average temperatures were largely found along the Panhandle, while Central and South Florida were home to the heat.
Regions that experienced frequent afternoon showers and thunderstorms generally recorded temperatures closer to seasonal averages, while locations that missed out on the rainfall often experienced temperatures that were well above average.
As a whole, warmer readings outweighed the cooler ones during the first month of meteorological summer, allowing the Sunshine State to experience one of its tenth warmest Junes on record.
The arrival of July has done little to change the pattern, with temperatures expected to get even warmer during the next few weeks.
Forecast models show another extended period of above-average temperatures developing this week as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Sunshine State.
The warmer conditions are expected along and north of the Interstate 4 corridor, where afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb into at least the upper 90s.
When combined with the humidity, the heat index could reach between 104 and 110 degrees through most of the state through the remaining days of the workweek and into the weekend.
The heat indices mean that NOAA’s HeatRisk will reach the Major category in many areas with some neighborhoods potentially reaching the Extreme category.
Residents and visitors spending time outdoors are encouraged to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the air conditioning and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest parts of the day.
Forecast guidance suggests that some ridging will remain in place through at least the middle of next week, leading to several days of above normal heat.
Due to the abundance of seeking air, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be hard to come by.
Whether the current pattern persists through the remainder of the month remains uncertain, but the final week of July is climatologically the warmest period of the year, when average afternoon highs reach at least the low to mid-90s.
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