Austin is no longer the must-move destination it was five years ago. A new forecast from moveBuddha shows a 40 percent drop in move interest since 2019, one of the steepest declines among large American cities. The report analyzed searches for potential movers across 79 cities over the past five years. Using that data, the study predicts Austin will reach an in-to-out move ratio of 0.95 in 2026, meaning more people are expected to leave the city than arrive next year.

Austin spent most of the past decade attracting newcomers at a rapid clip. The study notes it only dipped into negative inflow twice in the last five years and both instances occurred in late 2023. The 2026 projection signals a real shift. Austin is expected to spend the entire year with outbound searches outweighing inbound ones.

Researchers point to softer housing demand and longer listing times as signs the city’s once hot market is now cooling. They describe Austin’s real estate landscape as “sagging under price reductions” and say that change may be contributing to lower moving interest.

While Austin cools, Frisco is headed in the opposite direction. The Collin County city ranks seventh in the nation for predicted inbound moves in 2026 with a projected in to out ratio of 1.29. Frisco has only seen one negative quarter in the past six years and its long term interest trend has ticked slightly upward.

The study highlights Frisco as an example of a mid-sized Sunbelt city that has been growing steadily through years of national swings in moving patterns. The report suggests that momentum is expected to continue into next year.

Fort Worth shows one of the most dramatic turnarounds in the country with a 32.7 percent spike in moving interest since 2019. That increase ranks fifth among all 79 cities in the study. Its predicted ratio for 2026 is 0.97, still slightly negative, but far stronger than Austin and many other large metros.

Researchers point toward Fort Worth’s lower density and extensive trail network as potential draws compared with its larger neighbor. They describe it as offering a familiar region and economy without some of the friction of big city life.

Among the country’s largest cities, Dallas is the only major Texas metro expected to attract more newcomers than lose them in 2026, even though interest in moving there has declined about 19 percent since 2019. The forecast shows Dallas holding onto enough national pull to remain on the positive side of next year’s moving trends, putting it in the same camp as New York, Nashville and Washington, D.C.

Other large Texas cities are expected to land in the opposite category. Houston and San Antonio are both predicted to see more people searching to leave than move in, placing them among the least popular big metros for 2026 despite their size.