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Austin’s housing market is in trouble

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Austin’s housing market is in trouble


After having pulled through a dramatic home price correction over the past couple of years, the former pandemic boomtown of Austin, Texas, is now navigating even more troubled waters, as buyers scared off by brewing economic uncertainty are failing to show up for the city’s growing housing supply.

“Our market here was showing signs of price stabilization after unprecedented declines, as buyers re-entered the market after the 3 percent interest rate ‘hangover’ finally wore off at the beginning of the year,” Scott Turner, founder of Austin-based Riverside Homes, told Newsweek.

“But the economic uncertainty caused by tariffs and the risk of recession definitely affected their mentality, making them more cautious and leaving housing inventory levels at nearly an all-time high.”

The downtown skyline on April 11, 2023, in Austin, Texas.

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Why It Matters

Between February 2020 and May 2022, the median sale price of a home in Austin jumped by more than 60 percent, according to Redfin data, reaching a peak of $659,500. The increase was mainly a result of the massive influx of out-of-state newcomers sparked by the rise of remote work, which allowed many Americans to relocate to more affordable, more livable cities and turn their back on expensive metropolises.

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But the Austin housing market, which had become one of the most overheated in the country, experienced a significant slowdown after the pandemic, with return-to-office orders affecting the number of people relocating to the Texas capital. With a few notable exceptions, home prices have been consistently falling in the city, year-over-year, since late 2022.

The City’s Boom And Bust

“The story of the Austin housing market is basically the same as the national story, just a bit more dramatic,” Austin-based Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com, told Newsweek.

“Following the peak of the pandemic, there was a major run-up in home prices amid record-low mortgage rates as buyers rushed to snatch up homes.”

Eldon Rude, a longtime housing market analyst based in Austin, told Newsweek: “Texas was one of several Sun Belt states that experienced significant in-migration between 2020 and 2022, which resulted in an imbalance in demand over supply for homes.

“Such strong demand, coupled with extremely low mortgage interest rates, resulted in significant increases in home prices in all of the major metropolitan areas in the state.”

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The median listing price in the city jumped from $369,745 in April 2020 to $625,000 in April 2022, an uptick of 69 percent in just two years. At the same time, inventory plummeted, though it quickly recovered to pre-pandemic levels by 2023.

“Since then, inventory has continued to grow year-over-year, and March 2025 had more active for-sale listings in Austin than any March in our data history,” which dates to March 2017, Berner said.

But buyers are not exactly jumping on the chance of buying a home, even with more options available on the market.

“Just because home prices are coming down and there are more listings, doesn’t mean that prices are affordable. So there’s still a supply problem in cities like Austin,” Turner said. “I think only 25 percent of Austinites can afford to purchase a home at the median home price.”

Rude said: “With interest rates now higher than they were prior to COVID, coupled with a slower economy and less in-migration into the state, there are now fewer buyers in the market, and what buyers there are face affordability challenges given elevated home prices as well as higher mortgage payments.”

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Berner said: “The supply growth has softened prices, and the median listing price in March 2025 was $510,000, down 7.2 percent from March 2024. It has been a slow year, with 12 consecutive months of prices falling year-over-year. The correction has come for Austin sooner and more significantly than the national housing market.”

According to Turner, home prices are now stabilizing after “an unprecedented drop.”

Despite a gloomy outlook for the city’s housing market’s short-term future, Turner said Austin’s economy remains robust.

“Our real estate market is returning to a ‘new normal’ in terms of supply and demand,” he said.

That is—as long as the Trump administration’s tariffs do not massively disrupt the city’s market even further.

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“Austin’s economy outside of real estate is fairly diversified and still strong, but neither Austin nor Texas are immune to the impacts of a recession or tariffs, in the case of home building,” he said.

“It will take time for our market to work through this inventory, but despite Austin’s growth, much of this inventory remains unattainable for most Austinites, particularly with rates where they are, making matters worse.”

The Ripple Effect Of Trump’s Tariffs

Turner said that existing homes currently for sale on the Austin market are not going to be impacted much by the tariffs, but these are still influencing buyer behavior, making them “more cautious.”

For new home construction, on the other hand, “the impact of tariffs cannot be overstated,” Turner said. “Significant cost increases, particularly in Texas, where we are more reliant on imported building supplies, combined with falling prices would be devastating, not just to Austin’s market, but nationwide. If it gets worse, homebuilding could be the first major industry hit by ‘stagflation,’”

It is not only tariffs that are causing concerns among homebuilders in the U.S. and Austin—but uncertainty over whether the president would stick to these tariffs or change his mind.

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“As homebuilders, we can’t easily adjust our business to such sudden changes,” Turner said. “We are getting notices from suppliers every week regarding price increases.”

Berner said that the direct effect of tariffs on the Austin housing market has not yet been felt, “but as an area with strong new construction activity, the tariffs on Canadian lumber especially will work to drive up the cost of newly built homes in the Austin metro.”

In recent years, the economist explained, builders in Austin have excelled at delivering affordable new inventory to the city’s market, and the median price of a new home in Austin is currently lower than the price of existing homes. That is due primarily to where the new inventory is being built, Berner specified, in outlying areas of the metropolitan area.

“This will be jeopardized by tariffs, as builders will be forced to pass on additional costs to new home buyers,” Berner said. “What we will see even sooner is the indirect effect of the tariffs on consumer confidence, dampening demand for home purchases and leading to another slow year of home sales in Austin.

“Unless mortgage rates drop significantly, we anticipate that depressed homebuyer sentiment will lead to continued price depreciation and low volume of home sales in Austin.”

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Lawsuit: Brianna Aguilera’s parents allege underage alcohol service at Austin tailgate contributed to daughter’s death

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Lawsuit: Brianna Aguilera’s parents allege underage alcohol service at Austin tailgate contributed to daughter’s death


The parents of Brianna Aguilera have filed a lawsuit against two organizations, alleging that they served alcohol to their underage daughter which contributed to her death in Austin.

Before Aguilera fell to her death from the Rio 21 Apartments in West Campus, the lawsuit states that she attended a tailgate at the Austin Blacks Rugby Club’s facility, organized by the UT Latin Economics and Business Association.

Both the Austin Blacks Rugby Club and the UT Latin Economics and Business Association were listed as defendants in the lawsuit.

>> What we know about Texas A&M student Brianna Aguilera’s death in Austin

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Even though the lawsuit states Aguilera was “noticeably intoxicated” at the tailgate, her parents argue that the defendants continued to serve her alcohol.

According to court documents, Aguilera allegedly began stumbling at the tailgate and needed help standing at times. At some point, the lawsuit said she fell into the woods and lost her phone.

After leaving the tailgate at approximately 10 p.m., court documents state Aguilera died around two hours later.

The lawsuit also accuses the defendants of negligence and gross negligence for serving alcohol to Aguilera despite her age and allegedly overserving her.

In the suit, Aguilera’s parents demanded a trial by jury and sought at least $1 million plus interest, costs and punitive damages.

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Aguilera’s parents also seek damages for wrongful death, citing the defendants’ alleged misconduct.

Houston-based attorney Tony Buzbee, who’s representing the Aguilera family, commented on the lawsuit in a Tuesday news conference.

Watch the full news conference below:

“Brianna was obviously overserved,” Buzbee said. “Even the police have concluded that she was overserved at that tailgate. She was not 21.”

Buzbee also stated that the Austin Police Department has allegedly told multiple witnesses not to talk with him and Aguilera’s parents.

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“They told the three, the three individuals that were in that apartment that night when this young girl died. They told them, do not speak to Brianna’s mother or her lawyers,” Buzbee said.

He said that the lawsuit could provide a way for the witnesses to eventually come forward with information.

“By filing this lawsuit, not only will we hold accountable an entity or entities that were involved in overserving Brianna and other minors, but we will also be able to subpoena individuals and documents and video and data so we can continue our investigation,” Buzbee said.

KSAT’s sister station, KPRC, has reached out to both the Austin Blacks Rugby Club and the UT Latin Economics and Business Association for comment on the lawsuit. This story will be updated once the organizations provide a statement.


More coverage of this story on KSAT:

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Copyright 2026 by KSAT – All rights reserved.



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Cedar pollen eases, but record heat builds across Central Texas

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Cedar pollen eases, but record heat builds across Central Texas


Although record-breaking heat and spring-like warmth dominated the first few days of the new year, cooler — but still warmer than normal —temperatures settled in to start the first work week of 2026.

The heat will ramp up yet again Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures about 20 degrees above the normal early-January high of 62 degrees. 

Expect a blanket of low stratus clouds and some patchy dense fog Tuesday morning, but skies should begin clearing around lunchtime.

“In the meantime, a surface trough (of low atmospheric pressure)/dry line will push from the southern Edwards Plateau into the I-35 corridor, bringing temperatures into the lower to mid-80s,” meteorologists with the National Weather Service wrote in a forecast discussion Monday. “It is going to be very warm for this time of year, and some daily high temperature records could be broken.”

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Those temperatures could rival record highs at both Austin climate observation sites, Camp Mabry and Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, where the standing record is 84 degrees, set in 1989.

Behind the dry line Tuesday, drier air will move into Central Texas, leading to a slightly cooler start Wednesday under mostly to partly cloudy skies.

Morning temperatures will dip into the 50s around sunrise before climbing into the upper 70s to mid-80s by the afternoon. Those highs would surpass the record of 80 degrees set in 2008 at Camp Mabry.

Temperatures the rest of the week will remain above normal with mostly cloudy mornings but sunny afternoons. 

A cold front is forecast to move across the region later in the week with a slight rain chance Thursday and Friday, but most of the rain will fall north and east of Austin. However, cooler and more seasonable weather is expected this weekend. 

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This past weekend, Austin experienced the highest cedar pollen counts so far this season with a count of 3,200 grains per cubic meter Saturday and a peak of 4,000 grains per cubic meter on Sunday. However, the count dropped to just over 1,000 grams per cubic meter on Monday. Humidity has been on the rise in the past few days, and winds have been much lighter. Those factors have helped “settle” the cedar pollen for the time being. 

Luckily, the winds have turned southerly and are much lighter, so the pollen has settled a bit. A small chance of rain on Thursday and Friday should also help dampen cedar pollen before it becomes airborne. However, above-normal temperatures will allow tree pollen cones to continue opening, setting the stage for another pollen surge when the next breezy cold front arrives.



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Venezuelan oil reboot not expected to spur windfall in Texas

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Venezuelan oil reboot not expected to spur windfall in Texas


With former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro out of power, President Trump said he wants to reboot the oil industry in Venezuela. 

That idea has raised questions about whether it could cause a price spike at the gas pump and a downturn in the Texas oil patch region. 

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Now, a spike at the pump and a production slump in the Texas oil patch may not happen this year, but with oil prices down, a budget crunch for state lawmakers may be waiting when they return to Austin in 2027.

What they’re saying:

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The situation in Venezuela is creating a lot of political uncertainty, but a Texas energy expert said he is not expecting that uncertainty to cause an oil patch crash or a gas pump pike in 2026.

Prices at the pump are low and despite some recent big swings, up and down, analysts say 2026 could see the lowest prices since the pandemic. That prediction has people like Dale Owens cautiously optimistic.

“Things change so drastically nowadays. I mean, look what’s happening with the government, so anything can affect the price. But right now I’m really happy that it’s stable,” said Owens.

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There are big reasons for that local gas price stabilization, and it predates the leadership change in Venezuela, according to Ed Hirs, an Energy Fellow at the University of Houston.

“The first is that the president has asked MBS (Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman) and OPEC nations to continue pumping a pace. Number one. Number two, this helps hamstring the Russian economy and its war effort. And that’s also one of the goals of not only the European Union, but of the Trump administration. And number three, we’ve got the midterm elections coming up,” said Hirs.

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The price of a barrel of oil is expected to increase slightly because of the uncertainty regarding Venezuela. Texas crude oil production, according to an update released Monday, was stable in December, but state data also showed drilling permits for 2025 were at 369 and that’s down from 459 in 2024.

“When President Trump took office, oil was about $80 a barrel, today it’s under $60 a barrel. We are the high-cost producers in the global commodity oil market, and the cost of drilling these wells has gone up by between 5% and 12%, primarily because of Trump’s steel tariffs. Not only does the imported steel now cost a lot more, but domestic producers raise their So the producers in West Texas and across the Permian Basin are getting squeezed by much lower revenues, $20 a barrel less and much higher cost. It’s not a good capital investment for Wall Street,” said Hirs.

Dig deeper:

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The oil industry remains a big part of the Texas economy and the state budget. State lawmakers will return to Austin in 2027 to crunch numbers for a new two-year budget.

“I think they need to be looking at the budget. So the state comptroller needs to be running the numbers now based on lower oil revenues, not only for state lands, for example, for the universities, but for the state tax receipts. And that applies to the counties and cities that rely on these revenues to keep their budgets balanced. It’s going to be lower for longer,” said Hirs. 

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There are also doubts about whether the Texas refineries will get a financial windfall if the Trump Administration is able to reboot the oil industry in Venezuela. There are about six refineries in Texas and Louisiana that can process the heavy crude that is located in Venezuela.

“Well, it might help keep them open. But Lyondell just closed down a 100-plus-year-old heavy crude refinery on the Houston Ship Channel because it just doesn’t make any sense to reinvest in it. And it was going to require $750, $800 million of new capital investment just to keep the plant operating at par,” said Hirs.

What’s next:

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Stocks for several oil companies did increase on Monday. Chevron, at one point, had a 10% stock price surge, mainly because Chevron is the only U.S. company operating in Venezuela. Other energy-related companies also saw an increase, like Exxon, as well as industry suppliers like Baker-Hughes and Halliburton. 

The action on Wall Street came after President Trump said he wants energy producers to pay for the oil production rebuild. Hirs described the administration’s plans as being “naive.”

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Past attempts to rebuild another country’s oil infrastructure seem to back up the doubts raised by Hirs. In 1989, after the Soviet Union collapsed, companies like Exxon went in to rebuild — only to get kicked out later by the Russians. Hirs also noted the rebuilding effort in Iraq, started by President George W. Bush, hasn’t returned production there to pre-war levels. And it’s the same story for Libya, which was done under President Obama.

The Source: Information from interviews conducted by FOX 7 Austin’s Rudy Koski and previous coverage

AustinTexas PoliticsDonald J. Trump
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