AUGUSTA, Ga. (WRDW/WAGT) – An impactful winter weather event is possible for the CSRA this weekend.

The First Alert weather team has issued a First Alert for Saturday through Monday as freezing rain and sleet move into the area, creating hazardous conditions for travel and potential impacts to power lines.

WINTER STORM WATCHES have been issued for all CSRA counties near and north of I-20 from 7 AM Saturday until 10 AM Monday.

A watch is issued when conditions look favorable for a winter storm to occur within the next 48 hours.

What to Expect This Week

Through Friday: Temperatures will remain mild through the end of the week. Today will be a typical winter day with highs in the upper 50s to 60 and a slight chance of a few showers (30% chance of rain).

First Alert: Saturday through Monday ice event

The main concern arrives Saturday as a winter storm system moves into the region. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for most of the CSRA starting Saturday morning and lasting into Monday. Here’s what you need to know:

Saturday: Temperatures will start in the low 40s Saturday morning – but will drop below freezing in the afternoon and evening. This is when freezing rain and sleet will begin to develop.

Saturday Night into Sunday Morning: Freezing rain and sleet will continue as temperatures remain below freezing. Ice accumulations of up to 0.25 inches are expected for areas along and north of the I-20 corridor, with the possibility of higher totals in the northern CSRA. North of I-20 has the potential to see up to 0.50″ of ice. Low temperatures early Sunday morning will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Sunday: Temperatures will gradually warm into the mid-40s Sunday afternoon. As temperatures climb above freezing, freezing rain will transition to regular rain. Precipitation could continue into Sunday night before clearing out.

Monday: Expect dry conditions to return. However, temperatures will drop to near freezing by early Monday morning.

What this means for you

Ice accumulation on roads, sidewalks, and power lines could create dangerous travel conditions and potential power outages. If you must travel during this event, use extreme caution and allow extra time for your commute. Consider postponing non-essential travel Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

Stock up on essentials before the weekend, check on your heating systems, and bring in any outdoor items that could be damaged by ice. Keep flashlights and batteries on hand in case of power interruptions.

How to prepare

The time to prepare is now. Here’s what you should do before Saturday:

• Stock up on essentials. Fill your gas tank, grab groceries, and get any medications filled before the storm arrives.
• Charge all devices. Phones, laptops, tablets, and power banks should all be fully charged. You may lose power for an extended period.
• Gather emergency supplies. Have flashlights, extra batteries, blankets, a first aid kit, and non-perishable food on hand.
• Prepare your home. Bring in outdoor items that could be damaged, trim dead branches from trees, and check that your heating system is working properly.
• Have a backup plan. Know where you can go if you lose power or heat. Identify a friend or family member’s home that could serve as a shelter if needed.

Stay Updated

First Alert Weather is closely monitoring this system. Download the First Alert Weather App for live updates, radar, and push alerts. Stay tuned to our newscasts for the latest timing and accumulation forecasts as we get closer to the weekend.

Looking ahead

The region will stay dry Monday through Wednesday next week. Temperatures will be cold, with morning lows near 20 degrees Tuesday and in the mid-20s Wednesday morning before gradually moderating.

Deep dive – Forecast this weekend

The setup

A significant winter storm is taking shape for this weekend, and the atmospheric conditions are quite unusual for our region. Here’s what’s happening behind the scenes:

Upper atmosphere pattern

A cutoff low pressure system currently near the Southwest U.S. is expected to phase with an upper-level trough digging into the central United States. This pattern shift is creating a more favorable track for a surface low to move across the Southeast, though it will track slightly north of some previous model guidance. While this northern track means warmer surface temperatures overall, the region is still experiencing anomalously cold air for this time of year — a critical ingredient for winter precipitation.

Cold air damming (CAD)

The key to this event is a process called “cold air damming.” Strong high pressure will move into the eastern U.S. late this week, allowing cold air to get trapped on the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains. This cold air will remain locked in place over the CSRA through the weekend, creating subfreezing surface temperatures despite the system’s northern track. The strength and duration of this cold air damming will ultimately determine whether we see freezing rain, sleet, or a mix of both.

Moisture transport

The atmospheric river of moisture heading toward the Southeast is exceptionally strong. Integrated water vapor transport values are at the 99th percentile of climatology — meaning this is an unusually moist air mass for our region. Combined with the anomalously cold near-surface temperatures (also at the 99th percentile on the cold end), this event is operating at the fringes of what’s climatologically typical for the CSRA.

Timing and precipitation type uncertainty

Precipitation is expected to begin as early as Saturday morning with increasing chances continuing through Sunday. The critical question is: How long will the cold air damming hold?

This is where the forecast becomes tricky. The Southeast frequently experiences this type of setup, and it typically comes with significant uncertainty — especially this far out. The dominant precipitation types are expected to be sleet and freezing rain, with possible intermittent periods of snow or rain mixed in. However, if the cold air boundary weakens, areas further south could see the precipitation transition to rain.

Why this is significant

The combination of exceptional moisture transport and extreme cold air creates the potential for moderate to high total precipitation amounts. In areas where cold air damming persists, we could see significant accumulations of freezing rain or sleet. The highest confidence in wintry precipitation impacts is near the NC/SC border, where subfreezing temperatures are more likely to hold throughout the event.

The potential impacts are real: hazardous travel conditions and power outages are possible, particularly in areas that receive the most significant ice accumulations.

Bottom line

This is a weather event operating at the extremes of our regional climatology. The atmospheric setup is unusual, the moisture is exceptional, and the cold air is extreme. While there are inherent uncertainties in the exact track and precipitation type, the potential for significant winter weather impacts this weekend is high enough to warrant close monitoring and preparation.

Stay weather-aware: Download the WRDW First Alert Weather App to get the latest forecast updates, severe weather alerts, and radar right in the palm of your hand.

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