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Notebook: Opportunity in Atlanta's rotation, a sleeper in Anaheim and a better way to play fantasy baseball

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Notebook: Opportunity in Atlanta's rotation, a sleeper in Anaheim and a better way to play fantasy baseball


Please indulge me while I turn into an old man right before your eyes and complain to you without being prompted.

I think there are better ways to play fantasy baseball that we haven’t tapped into yet. Those ideas can be pushed aside until October or November — we’ll need a few logs for the fire then anyway.

Most of my friends and family don’t play fantasy baseball, but curiosity occasionally leads them to question some of the things about the hobby. The most frequently asked question:

“Why do you have pickups on the weekend, doesn’t everyone else have things to do?”

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The best answer I can give in 2024, as I approach 20 years of writing and talking about fantasy sports for a living, is that it’s just always been done this way, and that reason is even less satisfying to say than it is to hear.

I assume that many other people who play this game have something they enjoy doing, or at least some obligations to their friends and loved ones to be present during the weekend. Heck, I’ve even heard speeches from NFBC Hall of Fame inductees, thanking their families for the time they had to spend working on free-agent bidding instead of spending those hours together.

My old boss from the RotoWire years, Peter Schoenke, was the first person I saw make this plea a decade ago. If he hasn’t been able to generate movement on this front, maybe this is just shouting into the void.

“It’s time for Sunday night pickups to go away!”

The alternative is simple. Run weekly pickups on Thursday nights, which works out great since Thursday night is not a weekend night, and like Sunday night, it’s not a particularly busy night for games. Plus, all 30 teams are scheduled to play each week on Fridays, offering a clean weekly lineup deadline day outside of the first two weeks of the season when Friday can be left open in the MLB schedule as a built-in makeup date for postponements.

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Thursday is for pickups, and the weekend is just the weekend, in all of the best ways.

Imagine thinking about how much you want to spend trying to add Colton Cowser in a 12-team league before the weekend, instead of on Sunday afternoon while you’re driving back from a birthday party, a soccer tournament, a dance recital, or a trampoline park.

I’ll end my simple plea on this note. I realize getting your league(s) to change can be very difficult. This is merely tweaking the schedule, rather than updating scoring categories, expanding or shrinking rosters, or re-writing the constitution in your dynasty league, and when you look back at the changes that have been made to your league over time, you often wonder why your league ever chose to do it the old way.

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Here’s a quick look at the topics we discussed on the show this week.

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Monday

The new week began with a recap of a bad weekend in baseball on the injury front with Spencer Strider (UCL sprain), Shane Bieber (Tommy John surgery), Luis Robert Jr. (hip flexor strain), and Trevor Story (dislocated shoulder) facing lengthy absences.

  • As the Braves try to manage the absence of Strider, Bryce Elder is on regular rest the same day as Allan Winans, who was optioned to Triple-A after getting the turn in Strider’s place. Despite getting hit a bit in spring training, Elder had a 12:0 K:BB and showed improved numbers in Eno’s Stuff+ model. The longer-term eyes remain on AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, but Elder was an All-Star last season before a second-half fade and might be a nice “one-week early” stash with a two-start week approaching during the week of April 22.
  • Injuries have piled up quickly on the White Sox’s position players. The loss of Robert, Eloy Jiménez, and Yoán Moncada have helped drop the team’s run scored projection from BP’s PECOTA to 658 this season (29th in the league). Those absences will almost certainly have a negative impact on the run production of the remaining rosterable bats — most notably, Andrew Vaughn — at least until Bryan Ramos and Colson Montgomery enter the picture later this season.
  • As a longer-term trend of rising pitching injuries continues, should we consider reducing the number of pitchers in active lineups, adding IL spots, or making other modifications to roster rules in future seasons?

Tuesday

After focusing on the “who” from the weekend injuries, The 3-0 Show Reunion Tour focused on the variety of reasons “why” baseball is struggling to keep pitchers healthy. Spoiler: there is plenty of blame to go around.

  • Beyond pitching injuries, we discussed the Pirates’ fast start and examined why things might be a bit different this time around after a 20-9 start through the end of April resulted in a 76-86 record in 2023. Paul Skenes is working in shorter outings thus far at Triple-A Indianapolis, where he’s turned in six scoreless frames with an 11:1 K:BB in his first two starts.
  • How aggressively will the Marlins look to the future with their top two pitchers down following Tommy John surgery? Jazz Chisholm Jr. would be a very interesting fit for a lot of contending teams, but he won’t reach free agency until the end of the 2026 season. Jesús Luzardo is also three seasons away from free agency, but the league-wide need for pitching will drive plenty of interest. How many currently healthy players on the Marlins roster will be on their next playoff team?

Thursday

Jackson Holliday’s highly-anticipated debut with the Orioles took place Wednesday, leading us into our first Project Prospect of 2024, before looking at a few potential waiver wire pickups, and answering a handful of mailbag questions.

  • After Thursday’s episode was recorded, the criminal complaint against Ippei Mizuhara was posted to Twitter by Meghann Cuniff. It’s a doozy, and offers answers to many of the questions that surfaced when this story first broke during the Seoul Series in Korea.
  • Holliday debuted with the Orioles on Wednesday, leading us to wonder how his projections from The BAT X stack up to other middle infielders for the rest of 2024. With a 99 wRC+ built around a .257/.330/.378 ROS line (eight homers, 10 steals), Holliday’s numbers don’t jump off the page at first glance, but as we have discussed on the show over the years, prospect projections are often underwhelming. A quick spin with the FanGraphs Auction Calculator spits out fringe Top 40 middle infielder value for the rest of the season, but the “Would You Rather?” redraft toss-ups belong somewhere in the range of Jeremy Peña (fringe Top 20 MI) based on the possibility that Holliday exceeds expectations over the course of his rookie season.
  • We also discussed the early struggles of Ceddanne Rafaela, who agreed to an eight-year extension with the Red Sox earlier this week. The extension reduces the chances of a lengthy demotion to Triple-A even if his early struggles persist, and Rafaela’s defense at a major position of need (center field) will afford him a lot of opportunities to reduce the chase and swing-and-miss that has been a part of his profile since debuting with Boston late last season.
  • José Soriano is rostered in just 2% of NFBC Main Event leagues. He’s getting a shot in the Angels’ rotation while Chase Silseth (elbow inflammation) is on the IL. Soriano had Tommy John surgery in February of 2020 and again in June of 2021, so his workload will likely be managed carefully if he’s able to stake his claim for a permanent spot as a starter.

Friday

Join the Live Hive at 1p ET/10a PT on our YouTube channel!

  • This week, we’ll discuss making early adjustments, look back at one of the most ridiculous homers Trevor May allowed and offer up a game plan for pitching to Mookie Betts.

(Top photo of Bryce elder: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports)





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Atlanta, GA

Atlanta Braves News: Top 30 Prospects, Starting Pitching Depth, More

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Atlanta Braves News: Top 30 Prospects, Starting Pitching Depth, More


On Monday, the Braves were able to earn another Spring Training victory over the Detroit Tigers. It was a game where the starting pitching depth of the Braves was on full display, as Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz, and Owen Murphy all threw multiple innings. While it is likely unwise to expect big things from any of these three arms this season, they are a part of the “next man up” group for the Braves if injury again impacts the rotation. Each had a solid effort today, a trend that will hopefully continue.



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Atlanta, GA

Luke Kornet calls on Atlanta Hawks to cancel ‘Magic City Monday’ promo

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Luke Kornet calls on Atlanta Hawks to cancel ‘Magic City Monday’ promo


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An NBA player from an opposing team has called on the Atlanta Hawks to cancel their upcoming game promotion that revolves around celebrating a well-known local gentleman’s club.

San Antonio Spurs center Luke Kornet asked the Hawks to reconsider their “Magic City Monday” plans for a March 16 game against the Orlando Magic in a letter posted to Medium on Monday, March 2. Atlanta’s ownership group and front office recently touted the one-night collaboration as an ode to an “iconic cultural institution,” citing Magic City’s role and impact in Atlanta’s Black communities and hip-hop culture in the announcement.

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But Kornet wrote that “the Hawks failed to acknowledge that this place is, as the business itself boasts, ‘Atlanta’s premier strip club.’ “

“The NBA should desire to protect and esteem women, many of whom work diligently every day to make this the best basketball league in the world,” Kornet continued. “We should promote an atmosphere that is protective and respectful of the daughters, wives, sisters, mothers, and partners that we know and love.

“Allowing this night to go forward without protest would reflect poorly on us as an NBA community, specifically in being complicit in the potential objectification and mistreatment of women in our society.”

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Magic City Kitchen is also slated to serve two versions of its “world famous” lemon pepper wings – Louwill Lemon Pepper BBQ – at the March 16 game. The flavor is named after three-time NBA Sixth Man of the Year-winner, Lou Williams. Rapper T.I. is scheduled to perform at halftime and limited edition Magic City merchandise will be available to purchase at the game.

Magic City celebrated 40 years with a five-part STARZ docuseries, ‘Magic City: An American Fantasy,’ that was produced by Hawks principal owner Jami Gertz and Atlanta native Jermaine Dupri. Magic City founder Michael “Mr. Magic” Barney and T.I. are scheduled to record a live podcast from inside Atlanta’s State Farm Arena before the game.

Kornet, 30, hopes the Hawks and NBA officials listen to him instead.

“I’d like to encourage the league, its owners, employees and fans to hold the Atlanta Hawks to a higher standard of what they find worthy of promoting,” Kornet wrote. “I and others throughout the league were surprised by and object to the Hawks’ decision. We desire to provide an environment where fans of all ages can safely come and enjoy the game of basketball and where we can celebrate the history and culture of communities in good conscience. The celebration of a strip club is not conduct aligned with that vision.”

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Luke Kornet stats

Kornet is averaging a career-best 7.1 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.9 assists in his first season with the Spurs. This is the sixth team he’s played for in his nine NBA seasons, with his previous four years spent on the Boston Celtics.



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Atlanta, GA

Blazers Outclassed in Every Aspect By Atlanta

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Blazers Outclassed in Every Aspect By Atlanta


The Portland Trail Blazers put up an absolute stinker on Sunday, getting destroyed by the .500 Atlanta Hawks, 135-101. It was a soul-destroying loss. Jrue Holiday and Donovan Clingan have at least some reason to hold their heads high, with Holiday putting up 23 points on 56.3% shooting and Clingan getting a 15 point/15 rebound double-double. Otherwise you have to squint pretty hard to take away anything positive for the Blazers.

Here are a few observations from the game:

First Quarter Disaster Class

Not a whole lot went right for the Blazers in the first quarter other than Jrue Holiday’s 14 points in the frame. No other Blazer could manage more than three points. At the other end of the court, the Hawks were getting to the free throw line with ease, taking 15 freebies against only two for the Blazers. Atlanta found it easy to get wide-open shots too. Simple penetrate-and-kick was the order of the day, and it was shockingly successful. Five turnovers for Portland didn’t help either. With everything going wrong, the refs added to the misery, ignoring some laughably physical play for a steal at one end, while whistling Vit Krejci for a block on a clear charge on the other. Poor whistles led to frustration, with Clingan losing the plot a bit and picking up his third foul in the quarter out of frustration. Finishing down 19 at the end of the first quarter is no way to win a basketball game, yet somehow it could have been worse. With a bit over a minute to go, the Blazers had been down 24. Credit for not giving up I guess, but… yeesh.

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Okongwu was terrific. At one point in the 2nd quarter, he had 20 points on 77.8% shooting from the field and 75% shooting from deep. Not bad for a 6’10” center. He was always open in the corner. Every time down the court. If Atlanta had wanted to make feeding him a priority, Okongwu might have finished with 60. Instead, they ignored the obvious and gave every Hawk who took the court plenty of touches and shots. It’s hard to argue with a 34-point win, but it really should have been a 40-point lead at halftime if the Hawks had pressed their advantage.

Henderson’s Three-Point Shot

It’s still early days for Henderson’s 25-26 season, but he’s shown good things coming back from injury. His strength and first step are encouraging. His three-point shooting, however, has been a real problem. For a team that was already at or around the worst three-point percentage in the NBA before Henderson took the court, the last thing they needed was him to come in and shoot 24% for the season. In this game he attempted 4 of them, making one. Two of his misses were so ugly that Atlanta fans were embarrassed for him. Without a functional shot from range, he’s just not showing enough to win the starting job.

Three Quarters of Garbage Time

One way to look at this game is to give the Blazers credit for keeping it pretty even for most of the game after the soul-crushing first quarter. You could also give Portland credit for finding their way to the arena today. This game was decided early and nothing the Blazers did the rest of the way gave anybody a sense that they could mount a comeback. That’s pretty discouraging.

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Nice Shooting Percentage From Krejci, But…

75% shooting from the field and 66% from three for Krejci? Yes, please! Three total shots from deep and five overall in a game when they needed points? No, no, no. Krejci seemed like a brilliant pickup for the Blazers, what with him shooting over 40% from three the last three season in Atlanta. He just hasn’t had the kind of impact we all imagined so far. It’s still early in his Blazer career, but the 31.7% that Krejci is shooting from beyond the arc for the Blazers isn’t what anyone had in mind. Today he made his first three shots, with two of them from deep. Would this be the game that could get him on track? Unfortunately he’d only take one more three-pointer the rest of the game. It’s incredible that they wouldn’t at least try to lean into him a bit more when he looked like he might be poised to break out of his Blazers’ shooting slump.

The Blazers will get two days off before taking on the apparently lottery-bound Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday. A Portland win would probably suit both clubs just fine.



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