FOX 5 Storm Team meteorologist Jonathan Stacey is tracking the latest on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine which will likely become Tropical Storm Helene by Tuesday. it is expected to trek north into the Gulf of Mexico. Right now, it is taking aim at the Florida Panhandle as a major hurricane and then the heart of Georgia. Here’s the latest.
ATLANTA – The Southeast is bracing for the threat of a major hurricane which is forecasted to push into the Florida panhandle and through the heart of Georgia by the end of the week.
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While the system will likely weaken to a tropical storm as it reaches metro Atlanta, residents should be weather aware and prepare now for the potential of high winds, heavy rains, deadly lightning, and even a possible tornado.
“At this point, I don’t want you to move anything around, I just want you to have a ‘plan B’ in mind, especially for Thursday and Friday if you have something that involves being outside,” said FOX 5 Storm Team meteorologist Jonathan Stacey.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
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Right now, the weather system is designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, and the National Hurricane Center is expected to name it “Helene” in the coming days.
“It’s one of these kinds of things where it’s a step-by-step process, a day-by-day situation, so it’s really as every day passes, we’ll have more information that can help you better plan,” Stacey said.
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While the strength and intensity of this system remain uncertain, the track forecast continues to suggest the system will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week, bringing the potential for significant impacts to metro Atlanta and north Georgia.
“It could certainly become a major hurricane, which is Category 3,” Brad Reinhart, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, said in a phone interview. “People in the Florida Panhandle and the west coast of Florida certainly need to pay close attention.”
Reinhart said that it’s too early to forecast where it might make landfall. He warned “there’s always some potential” for it to strengthen into a Category 4 storm but added that it might not be the most likely outcome.
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“It’s a pretty aggressive forecast for intensification over the next few days,” he said. “People need to remain on high alert.”
Very warm sea temperatures are forecast to fuel the formation of a tropical storm, which is forecast to quickly strengthen into a hurricane thanks to favorable conditions that include a moist atmosphere, which supports thunderstorm development, and light upper-level winds at more than 10,000 feet, Reinhart said.
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The cluster of storms was located about 105 miles southwest of Grand Cayman on Monday. It had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was moving north-northwest at 7 mph.
Helene’s timing and threat in Atlanta
The potential impact window for the metro Atlanta area is currently projected to begin as early as Wednesday night and extend through Saturday, with the most likely period of concern being Thursday and Friday. However, as forecast models continue to develop, this timeframe will be refined. Keep an eye on the latest updates as the system evolves.
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Given the size and potential track of this system, there are several potential hazards for our region, including heavy rainfall and flash flooding. River flooding may also occur, especially in low-lying or flood-prone areas. Some models show up to six inches of rain with isolated totals as high as 10 inches.
Strong gusts could down trees and power lines, resulting in scattered power outages, and short-lived tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes may also develop as the system moves inland.
It’s important to remember that tropical systems can have widespread effects, with impacts felt far from the center. Don’t focus solely on the storm’s track; conditions can worsen well in advance of the storm’s arrival.
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“At this point, the cone has now shifted back to the west. You’re going to hear me, throughout this entire week, say that a western solution is our worst outcome,” Stacey said. “An eastern solution, for us here in north Georgia, is a better outcome because it will be on the left side of the storm, and we will likely avoid the brunt of the storm’s greatest impacts.”
Stacey says the cone will likely shift as the week progresses and residents should pay close attention.
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Helene will be the eighth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year because of record-warm ocean temperatures. It forecasts 17 to 25 named storms, with four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 24: Spencer Schwellenbach #56 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates during the … [+] seventh inning against the New York Mets at Truist Park on September 24, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images)
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Atlanta Braves right-handed starter Spencer Schwellenbach kept his team in the National League Wild Card race with a huge victory September 24.
Schwellenbach, 24, improved to 8-7, with a fine 3.47 ERA, and 1.07 WHIP in 20 starts for Atlanta.
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Schwellenbach has thrown 116.2 innings in 20 appearances for the Braves.
ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 09: Injured Braves pitcher Spencer Strider watches the game from the dugout … [+] during the Monday evening MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Atlanta Braves on September 9, 2024 at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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Impactful Injuries:
The Braves have endured some very serious injuries this season, and they still have a chance to make the playoffs.
All Star outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. required surgery for a torn Anterior Cruciate Ligament on his left knee. He has missed almost the entire season.
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All star right-handed starter Spencer Strider, considered one of the best pitchers in baseball, has been sidelined since mid-April with elbow surgery that required an internal brace.
And to make matters worse for Atlanta, highly regarded third baseman Austin Riley’s season is over, due to a fractured hand.
Starter Reynaldo Lopez, who was having a very solid season on the mound, has been disabled with shoulder inflammation since September 10.
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MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – AUGUST 27: Spencer Schwellenbach #56 of the Atlanta Braves delivers a pitch … [+] against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field on August 27, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Braves defeated the Twins 8-6 in ten innings. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
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About Spencer Schwellenbach:
The Cleveland Indians selected Spencer Schwellenbach in the 34th round of the 2018 Major League Baseball draft. He did not sign with Cleveland.
Schwellenbach, who attended Heritage High School in Saginaw, Michigan, chose to attend the University of Nebraska, where he spent one season.
Schwellenbach, who also played soccer in high school, was named the Michigan Gatorade Player of the Year, as well as Mr. Baseball in his senior year
Schwellenbach played three years of shortstop in high school, and was a two-way player at Nebraska.
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At Nebraska, Schwellenbach appeared in 18 games on the mound, all in relief. He earned 10 saves.
Schwellenbach earned the John Olerud Award as the best two-way college player.
Schwellenbach was chosen in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft by the Braves.
Atlanta gave Schwellenbach a $1 million signing bonus.
After the draft, Schwellenbach underwent Tommy John surgery, keeping him off the mound in both 2021, and 2022.
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Schwellenbach missed a month of pitching in 2023, with shoulder inflammation.
His injury history dictates care in his use by the Braves staff.
This old scout was fortunate to see Schwellenbach in the 2023 All Star Futures Game in Seattle.
In that game, Schwellenbach threw one inning in relief; yielding one hit, while striking out two.
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ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 07: Spencer Schwellenbach #56 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the … [+] fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Truist Park on September 7 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images)
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Scouting Spencer Schwellenbach:
Even though he was an award winning closer in college, the Braves have always used Schwellenbach as a starting pitcher.
Before his big league debut May 24, 2024, Schwellenbach made 24 minor league starts for Atlanta. He threw 110 minor league innings before he graduated to the Braves rotation.
Schwellenbach has a strong frame at 6-1, 200 pounds. He’s an excellent athlete.
A true power pitcher, Schwellenbach relies on both two-and four-seam fastballs as the foundation of a six-pitch mix.
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According to brooksbaseball.net, Schwellenbach’s four-seamer sits at 96 miles per hour, but he can increase velocity when needed.
Schwellenbach’s sinker has a bit less velocity, sitting at 95 miles per hour.
Schwellenbach also throws a curve, a slider, a cutter, and a split.
One of the best aspects of Schwellenbach’s approach is his ability and desire to use any pitch at any time in the count. And his pitch distribution is very equal. Here are the percentages of Schwellenbach’s pitch use:
Fourseam fastball-37.24%
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Sinking fastball=6.09%
Split (also a form of fastball)=10.77%
Cutter=14.52%
Slider=18.50%
Curve=12.88%
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While he strikes out an average of 9.4 hitters per nine innings, Schwellenbach is only walking 1.8 hitters per nine, showing fine command and control of his arsenal.
Schwellenbach has yielded only 14 home runs in his 116.2 innings, which is outstanding.
Schwellenbach is the fifth starter in a solid Braves rotation that includes:
Chris Sale-LHP
Max Fried-LHP
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Charlie Morton-RHP
Grant Holmes-RHP
Spencer Schwellenback-RHP
Scouting Grade: 55
For this old scout, Spencer Scwellenbach is a Grade 55 starter, which is a better than average performer.
Perhaps due to the Braves pitching injuries, Schwellenbach graduated to the big leagues quickly. However, he has earned the trust his team has placed in him.
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If the Braves do make the playoffs, we may see Spencer Schwellenbach on the roster as pitching depth for a team on a mission.
As rain poured down on Atlanta Wednesday, Major League Baseball announced two pivotal games were postponed due to the wet conditions.
Wednesday’s and Thursday’s New York Mets-Atlanta Braves games, set to take place at the Braves home stadium Truist Park, have been postponed due to “the forecast and the inclement weather.”
The MLB season was supposed to conclude on Sunday but will now extend into next week. The called-off games will be made up on Monday as part of a traditional doubleheader at Truist Park.
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The postponements come as Hurricane Helene nears, along with a cold front leading to a slow-moving line of showers and storms on Wednesday.
The combination will make for “an unprecedented” weather event in North Georgia, according to the National Weather Service.
The series between the two division rivals was seen as one of the most crucial of the 2024 MLB season to determine the final spots in the playoffs.
The Mets are currently a game up on the Braves for a wild card spot. The Braves are a half-game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for the third and final wild card.
The Mets head to Milwaukee to face the Brewers this weekend while the Braves host the Kansas City Royals.
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Monday’s first pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET.
