The Atlanta Hawks are wrapping up their six game road trip tonight in Phoenix with a matchup against the Suns. It has not been the best road trip for the Hawks, as they have gone 2-3 on it, but they have been playing most of the trip without star forward Jalen Johnson. That is going to continue tonight as the Hawks will be without Johnson for the third straight game and the fourth time in the last five games. It has not been pretty for the Hawks without Johnson, but they are going to be facing one of the most disappointing teams in the league tonight.

Phoenix came into the season with title hopes and after a hot start, it looked like the hire of former Hakws coach Mike Budenholzer was paying off for the Suns. It has not gone well though. This team is currently outside of the top ten in the Western Conference, Bradley Beal is now coming off the bench, and Devin Booker is not playing up to his usual All-NBA level. This team has talent, but they have not shown it on a night-to-night basis, as evidenced from their loss to Charlotte on Tuesday. Even without Johnson, the Hawks have a chance tonight due to the Sun’s inconsistency.

Coming into tonight’s game, the Hawks are 6th in the NBA in PPG, 14th in FG%, 17th in 3PA, 19th in 3P%, 5th in FTA, 24th in turnovers, and 6th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 15th in points per 100 possessions, 18th in effective field goal percentage, 19th in turnover percentage, 8th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 9th in free throw rate.

Currently, the Hawks rank 28th in PPG allowed, 22nd in field goal percentage allowed, 30th in three-point attempts allowed, and 30th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Phoenix comes into this game ranked 17th in PPG, 12th in FG%, 14th in 3PA, 7th in 3p%, 11th in free throw attempts per game, 25th in rebounding, and 10th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Suns are 13th in points per 100 possessions, 10th in effective field goal%, 13th in turnover percentage, 27th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 6th in free throw rate.

Defensively, Phoenix ranks 19th in PPG allowed, 14th in FG% allowed, 15th in 3PA allowed, and 21st in 3P% allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Phoenix is 23rd in points allowed per 100 possessions and 15th in effective field goal% allowed.

With Johnson out tonight, it is going to be on the shoulders of Trae Young to try and lift the Hawks to a win. Young had another 20-point, 20-assist game on Tuesday vs Utah, finishing with 24 points and 20 assists. Phoenix will likely try to guard him with rookie Ryan Dunn, who is a very solid defender, but Young is a different test entirely.

Dyson Daniels was overshadowed a bit by Young’s performance and game-winning shot, but Daniels flirted with a triple-double on Tuesday night. Daniels scored 16 points, had seven assists, and six rebounds on 7-12 shooting. He can be the lead guard and playmaker whenever Young goes to the bench and has done a decent job of that. Daniels will also be tasked with guarding Booker tonight (which is not an easy task) and trying to limit his scoring.

Zaccharie Risacher had one of his better performances this season on Tuesday night vs Utah. He scored 14 points on 6-14 from the field and pulled in six rebounds. With Johnson out, it might be Risacher guarding Kevin Durant tonight, though the Hawks could use Vit Krejci to do that.

Krejci had a solid game for Atlanta on Tuesday, scoring 13 points and shooting 3-4 from three and I would expect him to get the start with Johnson out again.

Clint Capela had a monster game on Tuesday, shooting 9-11 from the field and scoring 18 points. He finished at the rim well and also had three blocks and Phoenix is not a good rebounding team. If the Hawks win, I would bet that Capela is very key in making that happen. With Onyeka Okongwu questionable and Larry Nance still out, it might be the first time for Dominick Barlow to play an actual role on this team as the backup to Capela. If Okongwu plays, Barlow is unlikely to see minutes.

The bench will be led by De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Garrison Matthews (as well as whoever is the backup center). Until the fourth quarter, Bogdanovic and Matthews were having a poor shooting night, but Bogdanovic nailed two big shots to keep the Hawks in the game. Combined, they shot 4-15 from three and it is tough for Atlanta to win when two of their best shooters shoot like that. Hunter bounced back from a pair of rough games and scored 17 points and hit four of his seven three-point attempts against the Jazz. The bench will have a huge role tonight in helping the Hawks to earn a victory.

How the Hawks are able to guard Durant might be the biggest mismatch in the game. Durant is close to unguardable, but the Hawks don’t really have a great option in the starting lineup and I would expect to see Hunter get a lot of minutes on him when he comes off the bench. Atlanta could not guard Lauri Markkanen on Tuesday due to his size and shooting combination and they could struggle with Durant for the same reason.

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Suns are 6.5 point favorites tonight and the total is set at 238.5.

This is going to be a tough matchup for the Hawks without Jalen Johnson. The Hawks struggle to replace his versatile skillset when he is out and that is going to be a problem tonight against Durant and the Suns. Phoenix is inconsistent and can lose on any given night, but I like them to squeak by the Hawks tonight.

Final Score: Suns 120, Hawks 115 (Hawks +6.5 and Under)

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