Three wins to a national title.
Every game from here out is the biggest in IU football history.
In a national quarterfinal matchup, the No. 1 Hoosiers (13-0) will face No. 9 Alabama (11-3) on Thursday, Jan. 1 at 4 p.m. ET at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. (ESPN). The game marks the first ever meeting of these programs.
Indiana and Alabama could not have more different histories.
Alabama claims 18 national titles and 30 conference championships, while IU has never won a national title and can claim just three league titles. Alabama has the third-most wins in college football history, while the Hoosiers have the second-most losses.
But while the game is a historical mismatch, Indiana will take the field as the favorite.
Most sports books have IU as a 6.5 to 7-point favorite over the Crimson Tide in The Rose Bowl.
In the analytical models, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives No. 1 Indiana a 71.4% chance to beat No. 8 Alabama. ESPN’s SP+ likes No. 2 Indiana over No. 15 Alabama by 13.1 points.
Alabama played five games against teams currently ranked in the CFP Top-25: Two games against Georgia and Oklahoma, and a game against Vanderbilt. The Tide went 3-2 in those games.
FPI says Alabama played the sixth-hardest schedule this season, while IU played the 28th most difficult. Meanwhile IU has the No. 1 strength of record, and Alabama No. 10.
The lone common opponent for Indiana and Alabama is Wisconsin, a team both the Hoosiers and Crimson Tide beat on their respective home fields by 24 points.
Alabama is led by head coach Kalen DeBoer, who is in his second season in charge in Tuscaloosa. DeBoer is 20-7 in his two seasons at Alabama, and 124-19 overall as a head coach. He and former IU quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. led Washington to the national championship game in 2023.
DeBoer is one of several members of the Alabama coaching staff who were once coaches at Indiana.
DeBoer was the IU offensive coordinator in 2019. Crimson Tide quarterbacks coach Nick Sheridan was at IU from 2017-2021 and was offensive coordinator the last two years. Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack was at IU from 2018-2020 and defensive coordinator the last two years. Defensive backs coach Jason Jones was the IU safeties coach from 2020-2022. And strength coach David Ballou is an IU alumnus and was the IU strength coach from 2018-2020.
Alabama is No. 39 nationally in scoring offense, putting up 31.4 points per contest. Indiana is the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense at 10.8 points allowed per game.
The Crimson Tide are No. 13 in scoring defense, allowing just 17.9 an outing. IU is No. 4 in scoring offense at 41.9 points per contest. The most points scored by any team against Alabama this season was 31 by Florida State in a season-opening loss.
6-foot-2 junior quarterback Ty Simpson has completed 64.1 % of his throws for 3,500 yards, with 28 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Including sacks, he has rushed for just 76 yards and two touchdowns this season.
PFF grades Alabama as having the No. 31 offense, the No. 14 defense, and the No. 22 special teams in the country.
The weather shouldn’t be a factor in this game. Rain is rare in Southern California this time of year, and the temperature should be pleasant. The current long-term forecast calls for partly cloudy skies and a high of 67 degrees. We’ll check back on this as the game gets closer.
We will of course have much more on this game in the days to come.
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