What a distinction a month makes.

To completely comprehend Alabama baseball’s current nosedive it is best to rewind again to April 15. The Crimson Tide was ranked No. 24 within the nation and had simply handed No. 1 Tennessee its first SEC loss with a 6-3 Friday-night victory in Knoxville. Overlook making a second straight NCAA Match, there have been murmurs amongst probably the most hopeful corners of the Alabama fanbase that the Crimson Tide had an out of doors likelihood of internet hosting a regional.

Since then, Alabama’s NCAA Match probabilities have plummeted because it has tumbled down the convention standings. The Crimson Tide has misplaced its final 5 SEC sequence and is simply 2-11 in league play since its upset over Tennessee. Now Alabama enters the ultimate week of the common season nonetheless seeking to safe a spot as one of many 12 groups on this 12 months’s SEC Match.

Final week, Baseball America listed Alabama because the third group within the “Subsequent 4 Out” of its NCAA Match projection. That was earlier than the Crimson Tide dropped each of its video games at Auburn over the weekend. Alabama (27-24, 10-16 within the SEC) heads into the week ranked No. 53 when it comes to RPI and can want a late-season run to play itself into the match subject.

The Crimson Tide will conclude regular-season play by internet hosting No. 7 Arkansas for a three-game sequence starting on Thursday at 6 p.m. CT inside Sewell-Thomas Stadium. Recreation 2 is ready for Friday at 7 p.m. with the 2 groups wrapping up the sequence on Saturday at 1 p.m.

Right here’s a have a look at the place Alabama’s postseason probabilities stand for the time being.

What Alabama must clinch SEC Match

Earlier than Alabama may even take into consideration the NCAA Match, it must first safe a berth within the SEC Match. In the meanwhile, that’s nonetheless not a assure.

Alabama enters the ultimate week of the common season in eleventh place within the SEC standings. After seeing its recreation in opposition to Auburn referred to as off attributable to climate, the Crimson Tide sits at 10-16 in convention play, a half recreation forward of twelfth place Kentucky (10-17), a recreation and a half forward of thirteenth place Mississippi State (9-18) and two and a half video games forward of final place Missouri (8-19).

Alabama can clinch the SEC Match with two wins over Arkansas this weekend. A single win over the Razorbacks would be sure that the Crimson Tide finishes larger than Missouri. Nevertheless, in that state of affairs, Alabama would nonetheless be liable to lacking out on the convention match if Mississippi State had been to comb No. 1 Tennessee and Kentucky had been to win no less than two out of three video games in opposition to No. 19 Auburn.

Alabama can nonetheless make the SEC Match whether it is swept by Arkansas. In that case, the Crimson Tide would wish two of the three issues to occur.

— Auburn sweeps Kentucky.

— Georgia wins no less than one recreation in opposition to Missouri.

— Tennessee wins no less than one recreation in opposition to Mississippi State.

The very best-case state of affairs for Alabama this week

It’s arduous to think about a slumping Alabama group sweeping Arkansas for the time being, but when it does the Crimson Tide may climb as excessive as eighth place within the SEC standings. Right here’s a have a look at the best-case state of affairs for Alabama this week.

— Alabama sweeps Arkansas.

— Texas A&M sweeps Ole Miss.

— The South Carolina at Florida sequence finishes something however 2-1 in favor of the Gamecocks.

If Alabama sweeps Arkansas and Ole Miss is swept by Texas A&M, the Crimson Tide would end with a 13-16 convention file, a half recreation forward of the Rebels, who would fall to 13-17 in convention play.

The state of affairs with the sequence between South Carolina and Florida is a little more difficult.

If the Gators win two or extra video games, Alabama’s hypothetical sweep over Arkansas would permit the Crimson Tide to move South Carolina, which might fall to 13-17 with two losses or 12-18 with three losses. In the meantime, if Alabama and South Carolina each pull off sweeps, the Crimson Tide’s 13-16 convention file would narrowly edge out the Gators, who would fall to 13-17.

If South Carolina was to win two out of three video games in opposition to Florida, the Gamecocks and Gators would each find yourself at 14-16, placing them out of attain for the Crimson Tide.

Alabama’s NCAA match probabilities

Assuming Alabama does earn a spot within the SEC Match, the Crimson Tide’s subsequent purpose can be qualifying for an NCAA regional. Proper now, that seems to be fairly the mountain for Brad Bohannan and his bunch to climb.

The NCAA Match is made up of 64 groups with 31 computerized bids awarded to convention champions and 33 at-large choices determined by the NCAA Division I Baseball Committee.

The best means for the Crimson Tide to punch its ticket can be to win the SEC Match in Hoover, Ala., subsequent week. The Crimson Tide’s highway to engaging in that feat would start on Could 24 when it must win a single-elimination recreation earlier than coming into the double-elimination portion of the match. From there, Alabama would wish no less than 4 extra wins as a way to win the title.

Alabama may additionally attain the NCAA Match as an at-large choice relying on the way it ends its season.

First issues first, Alabama must win its sequence in opposition to Arkansas to keep away from ending the common season with six straight SEC sequence defeats.

Assuming the Crimson Tide takes two out of three from the Razorbacks, it could nonetheless probably want two or three wins within the SEC Match to maintain its regional hopes alive. Two wins in opposition to Arkansas adopted by three within the SEC Match would put Alabama at 32-26 on the season with a slew of current respectable wins. For perspective, Alabama made the NCAA Match with a 31-24 file final season.