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Trump bet tariffs would bring back American factory jobs. New report says it didn’t work

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Trump bet tariffs would bring back American factory jobs. New report says it didn’t work

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EXCLUSIVE — President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs promise is facing challenges from a new analysis that argues the sweeping trade policy failed to revive manufacturing and instead slowed job creation in the U.S.

The report, obtained first by Fox News Digital, lands months after Trump’s signature economic policies was handed a blow when the Supreme Court struck down sweeping tariffs, and businesses are now seeking billions of dollars in tariff refunds.

Trump’s April 2025 global tariff rollout marked the largest U.S. tariff hike in decades, delivering on a signature economic promise that higher duties would spark a manufacturing renaissance, bring factory jobs back to the United States and reduce Americans’ reliance on foreign goods.

Researchers at the Advancing American Freedom Foundation argue those goals never materialized, and estimate in their report that the tariffs resulted in up to 1 million fewer jobs nationwide than would have been expected under pre-tariff trends.

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TRUMP SAYS US WOULD BE ‘DESTROYED’ WITHOUT TARIFF REVENUE

President Donald Trump speaks during a “Make America Wealthy Again” trade announcement event in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Manufacturing — the industry the tariffs were intended to help — fared particularly poorly, according to the damning report. Researchers estimate the sector lost roughly 75,000 positions during the policy’s first year, or about 6,250 jobs per month.

“We can say with an over 90% confidence level that manufacturing lost jobs because of the tariffs,” Richard Stern, vice president of the Plymouth Institute for Free Enterprise at Advancing American Freedom, told Fox News Digital.

Stern argued the tariffs backfired because many American manufacturers rely on imported components and equipment.

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“Most of the Americans that are importing are American businesses, especially American manufacturers and producers,” he said. “So the tariffs really ended up being a tax on high-end American manufacturing.”

‘WE WERE RIGHT’: HE TOOK TRUMP’S TARIFFS TO THE SUPREME COURT AND WON

Manufacturing was a central focus of President Donald Trump’s 2025 tariff policy and a new analysis examining its economic impact. (Justin Merriman/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

If nothing else, the tariffs proved to be a windfall for Washington.

Duties climbed from $9.6 billion in March 2025 to $23.9 billion by May, according to Treasury data. By the end of the 2025 fiscal year, tariff collections reached $215.2 billion, roughly triple pre-tariff levels.

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In January alone, duties totaled $30.4 billion, up about 242% from $8.9 billion a year earlier. Tariff revenue for the current fiscal year has already reached roughly $230 billion, more than four times the amount collected during the same period last year.

ONE YEAR LATER, TRUMP TARIFFS GENERATED BILLIONS AS REFUNDS TAKE SHAPE

FLOURISH CHART SHOWING TARIFF REVENUE: 29325373

But the report from AAFF, which was founded by former Vice President Mike Pence in 2021, contends the tariffs’ revenue success came at a cost.

Researchers found employment growth weakened across most sectors after the tariffs took effect, with manufacturing and trade-related industries among the hardest hit. Their analysis found a 99.9% probability that job growth slowed following the policy change.

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When reached for comment about the report’s findings, White House spokesman Kush Desai did not address the claims, but instead took a swipe at the group, telling Fox News Digital: “Another useless memo is still not going to make Mike Pence relevant again.” 

AFTER SUPREME COURT BLOW, TRUMP ADMIN LAUNCHES $166B TARIFF REFUND PORTAL

Beyond employment, the report points to higher costs for American households and businesses.

According to the report, about 90% of the tariff burden fell on U.S. importers rather than foreign producers. The authors estimate the average American family paid about $1,000 more in tariff-related costs during 2025.

Researchers estimate Trump’s 2025 tariffs resulted in up to 1 million fewer jobs than would have been expected under pre-tariff economic trends. (Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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While businesses are seeking refunds following the Supreme Court’s ruling, Stern argued that repayment cannot reverse broader economic damage caused during the tariff period.

“You can’t undo the damage. You can’t undo a factory,” Stern said. “There are many that closed in America because they couldn’t get their hands on products used for manufacturing.”

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The report concludes that the tariffs “unlawfully taxed American families, wiped out nearly a million jobs, and were ultimately ruled illegal.”

The findings add a new dimension to the ongoing debate over Trump’s trade agenda, challenging the argument that higher tariffs would revive domestic manufacturing and create American jobs.

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ICE renews hunt for El Chapo’s last two fugitive sons with massive reward

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ICE renews hunt for El Chapo’s last two fugitive sons with massive reward

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“Two down and two to go” blared the new wanted poster targeting the two remaining fugitive sons of infamous Mexican cartel kingpin Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman-Loera, who is serving life-plus-30-years in Colorado’s federal supermax prison.

On Monday, ICE posted a new wanted poster for two members of “Los Chapitos” — Ivan Archivaldo Guzman Salazar and Jesus Alfredo Guzman Salazar, two of El Chapo’s sons with his first wife, Alejandrina Maria Salazar-Hernandez.

After El Chapo’s final capture in 2016, control of the powerful Sinaloa Cartel shifted to Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. Following Zambada’s arrest during the Biden administration, leadership passed to Guzman’s four sons.

MEXICAN SENATOR ACCUSES SHEINBAUM OF SHIELDING ‘NARCO-POLITICIANS’ AFTER US CARTEL INDICTMENT

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Both the Trump administration in the U.S. and the Sheinbaum administration in Mexico have said they are focused on cracking down on cartel’s new leadership.

“Two down and two to go with $10 million reward,” the wanted poster read, with Xs over the faces of the already captured Joaquin Guzman Lopez and Ovidio Guzman Lopez.

The two captured Chapitos are reportedly cooperating with authorities and have not yet been sentenced, but Ivan and Jesus remain “armed and dangerous,” according to ICE.

ICE NABS ACCUSED MS-13 KILLER HIDING IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA SUBURB

El Chapo Guzman arrives in the United States after his capture in Mexico. (AP File)

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The two fugitives are charged with conspiracy to distribute a controlled substance and operating a continuing criminal enterprise.

Two of Guzman’s four sons have already been captured through Operation Take Back America, an initiative seeking the “total elimination of cartels and transnational criminal organizations” in order to protect U.S. communities from violent crime.

U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois Andrew Boutros said in a recent statement that efforts to capture El Chapo’s sons are the latest steps “in our efforts to bring to justice drug lords and other dangerous criminals who poison the American public with illegal and harmful drugs and who otherwise engage in violence and corruption to carry out their and their enterprises’ wide-reaching criminal activities.”

US MILITARY KILLS TWO ALLEGED NARCO-TERRORISTS IN LATEST EASTERN PACIFIC STRIKE ON DRUG-TRAFFICKING VESSEL

Joaquin “Shorty” Guzman, center, is escorted by soldiers during a presentation at the Navy’s airstrip in Mexico City. (Reuters/Edgard Garrido)

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In his plea agreement, Guzman Lopez admitted that he and his cartel associates committed violence against law enforcement officials, rival drug traffickers and members of their own organization to protect the Sinaloa Cartel’s trafficking operations.

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Fox News Digital reached out to ICE and DHS for additional comment and information on the mission to capture the two at-large Chapitos.

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Trump says he disputed U.S. star player’s suspension, calling it ‘stain’ on World Cup

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Trump says he disputed U.S. star player’s suspension, calling it ‘stain’ on World Cup

President Trump said Monday that he called the president of FIFA to dispute a red card that would have barred the American striker Folarin Balogun from playing in Monday’s elimination game with Belgium, acknowledging an extraordinary intervention by a head of state in the sport’s disciplinary process.

“I asked for a review because I didn’t think it was a foul,” Trump told reporters during an event in the Oval Office. “I am good at this stuff. I didn’t think it was a foul. I thought it was two great athletes that crashed into each other and got entangled.”

FIFA subsequently rescinded Balogun’s suspension, the first time the governing body has reversed a red-card penalty during a World Cup in 64 years. Belgium has protested the decision, and a hearing is scheduled for Monday to determine whether Balogun’s reinstatement will stand.

Trump said it would be a “stain” on the World Cup to let the penalty stand, and even called the referee who issued the card “suspect” with a questionable past, though he did not provide evidence to support the accusation.

While many in the United States joined the president in celebrating the reversal, others blasted its adverse impact on the integrity of the sport.

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The Belgium team has protested the penalty reversal, with the country’s soccer federation saying it was “astonished” by the ruling.

“We are not defending the national team or federation. We are defending football,” Belgian coach Rudi Garcia said.

The episode has drawn attention to Trump’s close relationship with Gianni Infantino, the president of FIFA. In December, Infantino presented Trump with the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize, an award the governing body created after Trump was passed over for the Nobel Peace Prize. That decision is now the subject of an ethics complaint, backed by members of the European Parliament, who argue it compromised FIFA’s political neutrality.

Trump appeared to downplay the significance of his call to Infantino.

“I can’t tell him what to do, and I don’t believe he made the decision,” Trump said. “I think it was a committee that made the decision, and they made the right decision, because number one, it wasn’t a foul, and you want to see a game with your best players.”

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But he said it would be “very unfair” and “terrible” to not let Balogun play. He said it would be the equivalent of barring Argentina’s Lionel Messi or Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo — both global superstars — because they “ran” or “bumped” into someone on the field.

“We have to have our best players, and they have to have their best players. And if we win or we lose, it’s fair,” Trump said. “Let’s say we lost [Balogun] and we lose the game — it would be a terrible thing.”

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Trump shares news of ‘crystal clear’ Reflecting Pool, calls for vandalism suspect’s arrest

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Trump shares news of ‘crystal clear’ Reflecting Pool, calls for vandalism suspect’s arrest

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President Donald Trump and his Interior Department are declaring an America 250 victory over algae in the Lincoln Reflecting Pool.

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Trump shared photos on Truth Social on Sunday showing the pool and the reflection of the Washington Monument appearing clear and blue, and made a call out with a “Wanted” poster for vandals.

“The U.S. Park Police is seeking the public’s assistance in identifying the individual in the notice below in connection with a Destruction of Government Property investigation related to the Reflecting Pool,” Trump wrote Sunday on Truth Social.

Trump also shared an Interior Department statement crediting “advanced nanobubbler technology” and National Park Service cleanup work.

FORMER US OLYMPIAN DAVID HEARN INDICTED IN ALLEGED REFLECTING POOL VANDALISM

President Donald Trump is touting the algae cleanup and the prosecution of vandals from the Lincoln Reflecting Pool, with the water proving clear and refective in this July 3 photo. (Finn Gomez/Getty Images)

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“The advanced nanobubbler technology very effectively killed the algae that has plagued every Lincoln Reflecting Pool reopening — most infamously Obama’s reopening — since 1922,” Dei Gratia Minerals founder Greg Wischer, Interior’s deputy assistant secretary for land and minerals management, wrote in a letter shared with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Trump.

“The Reflecting Pool water is crystal clear, and our National Park Service team is now vacuuming up the dead algae resting on the bottom of some parts of the Reflecting Pool — just like the destroyed Iranian Navy resting on the bottom of the Persian Gulf.”

The photos shared by Trump show the Reflecting Pool stretching toward the Washington Monument under blue skies. One image appears to show the pool from the Lincoln Memorial end, while a second closer view shows the Washington Monument reflected in the water.

Trump also shared a U.S. Interior Press social media post hailing the technological success, quoting that Wischer memo.

YOSEMITE, GRAND CANYON LEAD NOTABLE LIST OF NATIONAL PARK CAMPGROUNDS FOR AMERICA’S 250TH

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Pete Folch carries an American flag during a morning run past the Reflecting Pool as the city prepares for July 4th festivities on July 3, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

“The vacuuming is the final maintenance step after refilling the pool, and it will be complete in a few days,” his memo continued. “Already, the section of the Reflecting Pool closest to the Lincoln Memorial has been vacuumed up, and the beautiful American Flag Blue coating on the bottom of the pool can be seen clearly.”

Trump’s Interior Department has praised the technology for overcoming past challenges in keeping the pool clear, including dunking on former President Barack Obama.

“Previous administrations — most notably under Obama — failed to maintain the Reflecting Pool, and after refilling the pool, the water would quickly become murky and thick with massive clumps of algae floating on the surface,” the memo concluded.

INTERNAL EMAILS EXPOSE HOW JULY 4TH BASH IS BEING DERAILED BY DEM-RUN COUNTY: ‘OFFENSIVE’

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Police said the incident happened on Friday at around 3:36 p.m. at the Reflecting Pool on the grounds of the Lincoln Memorial in the nation’s capital. (U.S. Park Police)

“The photos below show how the nanobubbler technology and vacuuming have been incredibly effective, making the water crystal clear with the American Flag Blue coating shining brightly on the bottom of the pool.

“As our National Park Service team noted, the Reflecting Pool is now so ‘blue’ that the Fake News Media, which has been staked out at the Reflecting Pool for weeks, has fled!”

The 6.75 million-gallon pool has been targeted by Trump critics and leftist anti-Trump activists for attacks both verbally and physical, Burgum discussed with ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday.

“The Reflecting Pool has been a big success,” he said. “And we’ve got 340 million people in this country that are celebrating 250. We did have a few vandals, but all that’s going to be repairable, and that’ll all be fixed in the coming weeks as we go forward.”

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People look out at the Reflecting Pool and Washington Monument from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial ahead of July 4 festivities on July 03, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Burgum now believes that the pool might not require a full draining after its “multiple gashes that add up to 350 feet,” he added.

“We don’t know if we need to drain the whole thing or not because, you know, the cutting happened on the edge, and, of course, it slopes from the edge,” according to Burgum.

“We may be able to partially drain it and do the repair. To be able to fix it, we may not have to drain the whole thing, but it could go very quickly.”

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While the media and Trump critics are pointing to added costs of the reflecting pool refurbishment, Burgum pointed to the vandalism causing that.

“We weren’t expecting that we were going to have a small group of people that wanted to try to destroy effectively what is part of the Lincoln Memorial,” Burgum told ABC. “There’s plenty of cameras around the Lincoln statue and around the memorial, but the Reflecting Pool had gone for, you know, decades without vandalism.”

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