Connect with us

Science

How a solar eclipse threw a remote Utah town — and its Navajo workforce — into crisis

Published

on

How a solar eclipse threw a remote Utah town — and its Navajo workforce — into crisis

When Mayor Ann Leppanen learned that the moon would cross in front of the sun above her home on Saturday, she foresaw calamity: a tidal wave of tourists engulfing her tiny town as they pursued the annular eclipse, with its spectacular ring of fire.

The town’s economy has long relied on a modest, steady flow of visitors drawn to its red-rock canyons, coursing San Juan River, and wind-swept solitude. But in January, this hamlet of 250 people began appearing on lists of the best places to view the rare celestial event — the town has almost no light pollution and it was in the precise center of the eclipse’s path. Reservations for hotel rooms and campsites began to climb, and by early September every bed was booked for the weekend.

Leppanen predicted that day-trippers and people camping on public land just outside the city limits would give rise to a crowd far larger than the city had ever seen.

Thousands of people were expected to visit Bluff, Utah, on Saturday to view the solar eclipse.

(Ash Ponders / For The Times)

Advertisement

“If even 1,000 people show up, it will be a disaster,” Leppanen said last month, shaking her head in the small room in the senior center that also serves as the mayor’s office. “I think we’ll have 20,000 — and I don’t think I’m underestimating.”

Leppanen worried that Bluff would run out of everything, even gasoline, and that if anyone was injured, bumper-to-bumper traffic on the highway through town could block an ambulance from arriving in a timely manner.

Compounding her anxiety was a serious labor shortage. Like many towns in the Four Corners region, Bluff has a workforce that is almost entirely Diné, or Navajo. An eclipse is a solemn, sacred occasion for the Navajos: the death of the sun. The devout would remain inside to avoid the sight.

“Growing up, I’ve been told that we’re not supposed to eat or do anything else — that time is just to meditate,” said Nizhoni Spencer, a cook at the Twin Rocks diner. “If you don’t do that, it will affect you no matter what. Because for us Navajos, [the eclipse] is different for us — being Diné, it affects not only physically, but spiritually and emotionally as well.”

Advertisement

Given the sanctity of the event, most employers gave their Navajo employees the choice to remain home, or at least take a work break and remain indoors during the four plus hours of the eclipse.

As the first rays of the sun peeked above the mountains east of the desert, apprehensive locals wondered if they would survive the flood.

:::

Across the country, small, scenic towns like Bluff have had to contend with our growing desire to travel far out into what was once the middle of nowhere.

Tens of thousands were expected to visit for the eclipse in Bluff, Utah
Instagram has inspired Americans to visit rural, hard-to-get-to areas of the country in search of the perfect shot.

(Ash Ponders / For The Times)

Advertisement

Instagram, with its viral shots of canyons and wide-open sky, has turned tens of thousands of people into road-trippers, venturing deep into rural corners of the United States, seeking the perfect shot. And during the pandemic, rural vistas offered a drivable vacation, with plenty of space to social-distance.

The surge in tourism in communities such as Bluff is associated with more than anxiety — it has created an existential crisis of sorts. In addition to practical matters such as zoning and water use, the increase in visitors has prompted questions about ownership and privilege, conservation and public resources. Put simply: Is it antisocial to ask that we keep our lonely places lonely?

Across Utah, tiny towns have had to confront city-sized problems as tourists fill the sidewalks. In Springdale, a gateway to Zion National Park, workers suddenly face long commutes, as the rising cost of housing forces them farther out of town and lines to enter the park back up traffic for hours.

Perhaps no western city better represents the conflict of solitude and tourism than Moab, an outdoors paradise just outside Arches National Park. That conflict is acknowledged in Bluff with a bumper sticker that’s hard to miss around town (including on the mayor’s thermos): “Don’t Moab My Bluff.”

Leppanen says that when she first visited Moab 30 years ago, it was just a “corner of development” with a couple of motels. Fast-forward to 2023, and Moab sees more than 3 million visitors each year. The tourism surge has led to a housing crisis, a water shortage and a traffic mess. Last year, 59% of Moabites polled by the Utah Office of Tourism said they felt that quality of life had declined because of tourism, and 67% thought that it’d had negative effects on the natural environment.

Advertisement

“For me, ‘Don’t Moab My Bluff’ comes down to planning — how do we promote development and tourism without draining our town of resources, or losing our housing supply for residents, if all the homes turn into short-term rentals?” Leppanen said.

A few days before the eclipse, she was interviewed by a reporter for the Salt Lake Tribune, with whom she shared her fears that Bluff would run out of food and gas. The story ran with a stark headline: “Mayor of small town in Utah to eclipse viewers: ‘Don’t try to come here.’ ”

:::

As the moon started inching toward the sun around 8:30 a.m. Saturday, it looked like the town’s warning to tourists had been taken to heart. Although a few thousand eclipse viewers did make their way to the red-sand fields around the town, it was quickly apparent that Bluff had over-prepared. Most of the tourists had instead gone south into the Navajo Reservation, to the geological formations in the Valley of the Gods and Mexican Hat. Before dawn Saturday, southbound traffic to both locations was already backed up for miles.

In Bluff, the sun rose on an anticlimax.

Advertisement
Tens of thousands were expected to visit Bluff, Utah, for the eclipse

Bluff was expecting a tide of tourists. But perhaps because of messaging from the mayor and others, many folks stayed away.

(Ash Ponders / For The Times)

Alicia and Bryan Rollo were among the tourists who did arrive; they drove down from Providence, Utah, with their four children. As the temperature dropped and the land got darker, they stood next to an array of cameras on tripods, waiting to get the right shot.

They both said they were nervous about potential crowds. The family had gone to see a total eclipse in Idaho in 2017 and had spent hours in bumper-to-bumper traffic. “We heard the mayor saying, ‘Don’t come to Bluff, don’t come to Bluff. They’ll be too many people,” Bryan said.

“And we heard that, weeks ago, the road signs in southern Utah were warning about the traffic,” Alicia added.

Advertisement

Bryan said he agreed with the importance of not overcrowding small towns. “It’s a balance,” he said. The family had planned to avoid Bluff and head farther south, but when they passed through the town and the crowds seemed small, they decided to stop.

A few hundred feet away, Spencer stood quietly in the kitchen of Twin Rocks diner. Monica Hatahlie, another Diné worker whom Spencer considers to be a sister, huddled next to her. They tensed up whenever someone opened the doors to the kitchen, and they both stayed in its far-back corner, anxious to avoid the windows.

1 Tens of thousands were expected to visit for the eclipse in Bluff, Utah, US, on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023. But, perhaps do to messaging from the mayor and others, many folks stayed away and much of the preparations businesses made for the anticipated tourists were wasted.

2 Tens of thousands were expected to visit for the eclipse in Bluff, Utah, US, on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023. But, perhaps do to messaging from the mayor and others, many folks stayed away and much of the preparations businesses made for the anticipated tourists were wasted.

3 A view of the eclipse through special glasses.

1. Tens of thousands were expected to visit for the eclipse in Bluff, Utah, US, on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023. But, perhaps do to messaging from the mayor and others, many folks stayed away and much of the preparations businesses made for the anticipated tourists were wasted. (Ash Ponders/Photographer: Ash Ponders/LA Times) 2. Tens of thousands were expected to visit for the eclipse in Bluff, Utah, US, on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023. But, perhaps do to messaging from the mayor and others, many folks stayed away and much of the preparations businesses made for the anticipated tourists were wasted. (Ash Ponders/Photographer: Ash Ponders/LA Times) 3. A view of the eclipse through special glasses. (Ash Ponders/Photographer: Ash Ponders/LA Times)

Advertisement

“Right now, the sun is dying,” Spencer said. “It’s hard because we’re supposed to be at home with our families.”

Spencer said that she avoids even seeing photos of the eclipse online. For months before the ring of fire, traditional Navajos had to dodge posters advertising its arrival. Some Navajo workers at hotels, when asked by tourists where to go to see the eclipse, had to patiently explain that they avoid it.

“It’s really ironic, because there are thousands of people here now, and they’re coming to the very exact place where we have a tribe here with this cultural belief,” Spencer said. She laughed when asked whether she thought an eclipse in Dinétah, the Navajo homeland, should be a government-designated holiday, such as Easter and Christmas. “We’re just so used to being treated that way, for not being acknowledged, that it doesn’t faze us.”

Mike Guymon of Santa Monica brought a Solarama

Mike Guymon of Santa Monica brought a “Solarama” he received in the sixth or seventh grade at the Griffith Observatory to watch the eclipse in Bluff.

(Ash Ponders / For The Times)

Advertisement

At the same time, many of the tourists outside the diner — including the Rollo family — said they’d learned about Navajos’ relationship with the eclipse during their research and were glad to hear Navajo employees didn’t have to work while it was taking place.

:::

About a mile away, at the Bluff Dwellings hotel, owners Spring and Jared Berrett fired up their barbecue. They’d given the hotel’s Navajo restaurant workers the morning off during the eclipse, and they were running the lunch service.

As the moon and the sun began to part, Jared Berrett said that although he supported the town making sure that only a sustainable number of visitors showed up for the eclipse, he felt that there had been an “overcorrection” — now, not enough people had shown up.

“There’s often a bit of tension in small towns between wanting to be able to pay your bills as a business owner, and residents wanting to not have too much influx of inconvenience — you know, people, traffic. I think that played out here,” he said.

Advertisement

Berrett said it’s not hard to understand what his fellow residents are trying to preserve. When asked about what made him decide to move to Bluff 15 years ago, he had a one-word answer: “Solitude.” As their hotel has expanded — the Berretts added a three-story building last year — he says residents worry his business is threatening that solitude. At town meetings, neighbors have voiced their concerns about noise, water use and other effects.

“That’s the Catch-22,” Berrett said. “We still want to find solitude and have our guests find solitude. But, frankly, I think there’s a bit of over-caution among the townspeople in general. We’re so remote that we’re never going to see a huge population — we’re never going to be a Sedona [Arizona], we’re not going to be a Moab.”

Berrett mentioned that the owners of a nearby Canyon Smokehouse had rented an entire refrigerated semi-truck to store brisket and other cuts of meat, in anticipation of huge crowds. Now, without the expected rush, he worried that they might be feeling “a little frantic” — they had made a huge investment, and could risk losing it if tourists didn’t show up.

Interviewed later in the day, the smokehouse’s owner, Erin Nelson, said she’d felt plenty nervous when the restaurant opened to tiny crowds. But by lunchtime, a steady crowd filled most of the tables — many of the customers were road-tripping back north and stopped in town to eat.

“That’s the hardest question we’re answering today,” Nelson said, when asked whether she felt the town’s messaging might have scared off customers. But she also serves as the town manager, and she sympathized with Leppanen’s decision to discourage eclipse tourism.

Advertisement

“I think from her position specifically, she made the right call in her role — her job is to keep residents safe,” Nelson said. “Small towns often walk this line between an economic policy and safety for their residents.”

:::

On Monday, after most of the tourists had packed up, Leppanen said she had no regrets. “I would have rather over-prepared than under-prepared,” she said.

And although she felt the Salt Lake Tribune had taken her “Do not come” message out of context, she said that, as mayor, it was important to balance the good of tourism with the bane of overcrowding.

“That’s the question,” she said. “How do you avoid becoming one of those places that people just love to death?”

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Science

There's a reason you can't stop doomscrolling through L.A.'s fire disaster

Published

on

There's a reason you can't stop doomscrolling through L.A.'s fire disaster

Even for those lucky enough to get out in time, or to live outside the evacuation zones, there has been no escape from the fires in the Los Angeles area this week.

There is hardly a vantage point in the city from which flames or plumes of smoke are not visible, nowhere the scent of burning memories can’t reach.

And on our screens — on seemingly every channel and social media feed and text thread and WhatsApp group — an endless carousel of images documents a level of fear, loss and grief that felt unimaginable here as recently as Tuesday morning.

Even in places of physical safety, many in Los Angeles are finding it difficult to look away from the worst of the destruction online.

Advertisement

“To me it’s more comfortable to doomscroll than to sit and wait,” said Clara Sterling, who evacuated from her home Wednesday. “I would rather know exactly where the fire is going and where it’s headed than not know anything at all.”

A writer and comedian, Sterling is — by her own admission — extremely online. But the nature of this week’s fires make it particularly hard to disengage from news coverage and social media, experts said.

For one, there’s a material difference between scrolling through images of a far-off crisis and staying informed about an active disaster unfolding in your neighborhood, said Casey Fiesler, an associate professor specializing in tech ethics at the University of Colorado Boulder.

“It’s weird to even think of it as ‘doomscrolling,’ ” she said. “When you’re in it, you’re also looking for important information that can be really hard to get.”

When you share an identity with the victims of a traumatic event, you’re more likely both to seek out media coverage of the experience and to feel more distressed by the media you see, said Roxane Cohen Silver, distinguished professor of psychological science at UC Irvine.

Advertisement

For Los Angeles residents, this week’s fires are affecting the people we identify with most intimately: family, friends and community members. They have consumed places and landmarks that feature prominently in fond memories and regular routines.

The ubiquitous images have also fueled painful memories for those who have lived through similar disasters — a group whose numbers have increased as wildfires have grown more frequent in California, Silver said.

This she knows personally: She evacuated from the Laguna Beach fires in 1993, and began a long-term study of that fire’s survivors days after returning to her home.

“Throughout California, throughout the West, throughout communities that have had wildfire experience, we are particularly primed and sensitized to that news,” she said. “And the more we immerse ourselves in that news, the more likely we are to experience distress.”

Absorption in these images of fire and ash can cause trauma of its own, said Jyoti Mishra, an associate professor of psychiatry at UC San Diego who studied the long-term psychological health of survivors of the 2018 Camp fire.

Advertisement

The team identified lingering symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anxiety both among survivors who personally experienced fire-related trauma such as injury or property loss, and — to a smaller but still significant degree — among those who indirectly experienced the trauma as witnesses.

“If you’re witnessing [trauma] in the media, happening on the streets that you’ve lived on and walked on, and you can really put yourself in that place, then it can definitely be impactful,” said Mishra, who’s also co-director of the UC Climate Change and Mental Health Council. “Psychology and neuroscience research has shown that images and videos that generate a sense of personal meaning can have deep emotional impacts.”

The emotional pull of the videos and images on social media make it hard to look away, even as many find the information there much harder to trust.

Like many others, Sterling spent a lot of time online during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Back then, Sterling said, the social media environment felt decidedly different.

“This time around I think I feel less informed about what’s going on because there’s been such a big push toward not fact-checking and getting rid of verified accounts,” she said.

Advertisement

The rise of AI-generated images and photos has added another troubling kink, as Sterling highlighted in a video posted to TikTok early Thursday.

“The Hollywood sign was not on fire last night. Any video or photos that you saw of the Hollywood sign on fire were fake. They were AI generated,” she said, posting from a hotel in San Diego after evacuating.

Hunter Ditch, a producer and voice actor in Lake Balboa, raised similar concerns about the lack of accurate information. Some social media content she’s encountered seemed “very polarizing” or political, and some exaggerated the scope of the disaster or featured complete fabrications, such as that flaming Hollywood sign.

The spread of false information has added another layer of stress, she said. This week, she started turning to other types of app — like the disaster mapping app, Watch Duty — to track the spreading fires and changing evacuation zones.

But that made her wonder: “If I have to check a whole other app for accurate information, then what am I even doing on social media at all?”

Advertisement

Continue Reading

Science

Pink Fire Retardant, a Dramatic Wildfire Weapon, Poses Its Own Dangers

Published

on

Pink Fire Retardant, a Dramatic Wildfire Weapon, Poses Its Own Dangers

From above the raging flames, these planes can unleash immense tankfuls of bright pink fire retardant in just 20 seconds. They have long been considered vital in the battle against wildfires.

But emerging research has shown that the millions of gallons of retardant sprayed on the landscape to tame wildfires each year come with a toxic burden, because they contain heavy metals and other chemicals that are harmful to human health and the environment.

The toxicity presents a stark dilemma. These tankers and their cargo are a powerful tool for taming deadly blazes. Yet as wildfires intensify and become more frequent in an era of climate change, firefighters are using them more often, and in the process releasing more harmful chemicals into the environment.

Some environmental groups have questioned the retardants’ effectiveness and potential for harm. The efficiency of fire retardant has been hard to measure, because it’s one of a barrage of firefighting tactics deployed in a major fire. After the flames are doused, it’s difficult to assign credit.

The frequency and severity of wildfires has grown in recent years, particularly in the western United States. Scientists have also found that fires across the region have become faster moving in recent decades.

Advertisement

There are also the longer-term health effects of exposure to wildfire smoke, which can penetrate the lungs and heart, causing disease. A recent global survey of the health effects of air pollution caused by wildfires found that in the United States, exposure to wildfire smoke had increased by 77 percent since 2002. Globally, wildfire smoke has been estimated to be responsible for up to 675,000 premature deaths per year.

Fire retardants add to those health and environmental burdens because they present “a really, really thorny trade-off,” said Daniel McCurry, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Southern California, who led the recent research on their heavy-metal content.

The United States Forest Service said on Thursday that nine large retardant-spraying planes, as well as 20 water-dropping helicopters, were being deployed to fight the Southern California fires, which have displaced tens of thousands of people. Several “water scooper” amphibious planes, capable of skimming the surface of the sea or other body of water to fill their tanks, are also being used.

Two large DC-10 aircraft, dubbed “Very Large Airtankers” and capable of delivering up to 9,400 gallons of retardant, were also set to join the fleet imminently, said Stanton Florea, a spokesman for the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, which coordinates national wildland firefighting efforts across the West.

Sprayed ahead of the fire, the retardants coat vegetation and prevent oxygen from allowing it to burn, Mr. Florea said. (Red dye is added so firefighters can see the retardant against the landscape.) And the retardant, typically made of salts like ammonium polyphosphate, “lasts longer. It doesn’t evaporate, like dropping water,” he said.

Advertisement

The new research from Dr. McCurry and his colleagues found, however, that at least four different types of heavy metals in a common type of retardant used by firefighters exceeded California’s requirements for hazardous waste.

Federal data shows that more than 440 million gallons of retardant were applied to federal, state, and private land between 2009 and 2021. Using that figure, the researchers estimated that between 2009 and 2021, more than 400 tons of heavy metals were released into the environment from fire suppression, a third of that in Southern California.

Both the federal government and the retardant’s manufacturer, Perimeter Solutions, have disputed that analysis, saying the researchers had evaluated a different version of the retardant. Dan Green, a spokesman for Perimeter, said retardants used for aerial firefighting had passed “extensive testing to confirm they meet strict standards for aquatic and mammalian safety.”

Still, the findings help explain why concentrations of heavy metals tend to surge in rivers and streams after wildfires, sometimes by hundreds of times. And as scrutiny of fire suppressants has grown, the Forestry Service has set buffer zones surrounding lakes and rivers, though its own data shows retardant still inadvertently drifts into those waters.

In 2022, the environmental nonprofit Forest Service Employees for Environmental Ethics sued the government in federal court in Montana, demanding that the Forest Service obtain a permit under the Clean Water Act to cover accidental spraying into waterways.

Advertisement

The judge ruled that the agency did indeed need to obtain a permit. But it allowed retardant use to continue to protect lives and property.

Continue Reading

Science

2024 Brought the World to a Dangerous Warming Threshold. Now What?

Published

on

2024 Brought the World to a Dangerous Warming Threshold. Now What?

Source: Copernicus/ECMWF

Note: Temperature anomalies relative to 1850-1900 averages.

At the stroke of midnight on Dec. 31, Earth finished up its hottest year in recorded history, scientists said on Friday. The previous hottest year was 2023. And the next one will be upon us before long: By continuing to burn huge amounts of coal, oil and gas, humankind has all but guaranteed it.

The planet’s record-high average temperature last year reflected the weekslong, 104-degree-Fahrenheit spring heat waves that shuttered schools in Bangladesh and India. It reflected the effects of the bathtub-warm ocean waters that supercharged hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and cyclones in the Philippines. And it reflected the roasting summer and fall conditions that primed Los Angeles this week for the most destructive wildfires in its history.

Advertisement

“We are facing a very new climate and new challenges, challenges that our society is not prepared for,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union monitoring agency.

But even within this progression of warmer years and ever-intensifying risks to homes, communities and the environment, 2024 stood out in another unwelcome way. According to Copernicus, it was the first year in which global temperatures averaged more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above those the planet experienced at the start of the industrial age.

For the past decade, the world has sought to avoid crossing this dangerous threshold. Nations enshrined the goal in the 2015 Paris agreement to fight climate change. “Keep 1.5 alive” was the mantra at United Nations summits.

Yet here we are. Global temperatures will fluctuate somewhat, as they always do, which is why scientists often look at warming averaged over longer periods, not just a single year.

But even by that standard, staying below 1.5 degrees looks increasingly unattainable, according to researchers who have run the numbers. Globally, despite hundreds of billions of dollars invested in clean-energy technologies, carbon dioxide emissions hit a record in 2024 and show no signs of dropping.

Advertisement

One recent study published in the journal Nature concluded that the absolute best humanity can now hope for is around 1.6 degrees of warming. To achieve it, nations would need to start slashing emissions at a pace that would strain political, social and economic feasibility.

But what if we’d started earlier?

“It was guaranteed we’d get to this point where the gap between reality and the trajectory we needed for 1.5 degrees was so big it was ridiculous,” said David Victor, a professor of public policy at the University of California, San Diego.

The question now is what, if anything, should replace 1.5 as a lodestar for nations’ climate aspirations.

“These top-level goals are at best a compass,” Dr. Victor said. “They’re a reminder that if we don’t do more, we’re in for significant climate impacts.”

Advertisement

The 1.5-degree threshold was never the difference between safety and ruin, between hope and despair. It was a number negotiated by governments trying to answer a big question: What’s the highest global temperature increase — and the associated level of dangers, whether heat waves or wildfires or melting glaciers — that our societies should strive to avoid?

The result, as codified in the Paris agreement, was that nations would aspire to hold warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius while “pursuing efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees.

Even at the time, some experts called the latter goal unrealistic, because it required such deep and rapid emissions cuts. Still, the United States, the European Union and other governments adopted it as a guidepost for climate policy.

Christoph Bertram, an associate research professor at the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability, said the urgency of the 1.5 target spurred companies of all kinds — automakers, cement manufacturers, electric utilities — to start thinking hard about what it would mean to zero out their emissions by midcentury. “I do think that has led to some serious action,” Dr. Bertram said.

But the high aspiration of the 1.5 target also exposed deep fault lines among nations.

Advertisement

China and India never backed the goal, since it required them to curb their use of coal, gas and oil at a pace they said would hamstring their development. Rich countries that were struggling to cut their own emissions began choking off funding in the developing world for fossil-fuel projects that were economically beneficial. Some low-income countries felt it was deeply unfair to ask them to sacrifice for the climate given that it was wealthy nations — and not them — that had produced most of the greenhouse gases now warming the world.

“The 1.5-degree target has created a lot of tension between rich and poor countries,” said Vijaya Ramachandran, director for energy and development at the Breakthrough Institute, an environmental research organization.

Costa Samaras, an environmental-engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University, compared the warming goals to health officials’ guidelines on, say, cholesterol. “We don’t set health targets on what’s realistic or what’s possible,” Dr. Samaras said. “We say, ‘This is what’s good for you. This is how you’re going to not get sick.’”

“If we were going to say, ‘Well, 1.5 is likely out of the question, let’s put it to 1.75,’ it gives people a false sense of assurance that 1.5 was not that important,” said Dr. Samaras, who helped shape U.S. climate policy from 2021 to 2024 in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. “It’s hugely important.”

Scientists convened by the United Nations have concluded that restricting warming to 1.5 degrees instead of 2 would spare tens of millions of people from being exposed to life-threatening heat waves, water shortages and coastal flooding. It might mean the difference between a world that has coral reefs and Arctic sea ice in the summer, and one that doesn’t.

Advertisement

Each tiny increment of additional warming, whether it’s 1.6 degrees versus 1.5, or 1.7 versus 1.6, increases the risks. “Even if the world overshoots 1.5 degrees, and the chances of this happening are increasing every day, we must keep striving” to bring emissions to zero as soon as possible, said Inger Anderson, the executive director of the United Nations Environment Program.

Officially, the sun has not yet set on the 1.5 target. The Paris agreement remains in force, even as President-elect Donald J. Trump vows to withdraw the United States from it for a second time. At U.N. climate negotiations, talk of 1.5 has become more muted compared with years past. But it has hardly gone away.

“With appropriate measures, 1.5 Celsius is still achievable,” Cedric Schuster, the minister of natural resources and environment for the Pacific island nation of Samoa, said at last year’s summit in Azerbaijan. Countries should “rise to the occasion with new, highly ambitious” policies, he said.

To Dr. Victor of U.C. San Diego, it is strange but all too predictable that governments keep speaking this way about what appears to be an unachievable aim. “No major political leader who wants to be taken seriously on climate wants to stick their neck out and say, ‘1.5 degrees isn’t feasible. Let’s talk about more realistic goals,’” he said.

Still, the world will eventually need to have that discussion, Dr. Victor said. And it’s unclear how it will go.

Advertisement

“It could be constructive, where we start asking, ‘How much warming are we really in for? And how do we deal with that?’” he said. “Or it could look very toxic, with a bunch of political finger pointing.”

Methodology

The second chart shows pathways for reducing carbon emissions that would have a 66 percent chance of limiting global warming this century to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average.

Continue Reading

Trending