Science
Column: Measles is again on the march across the world, thanks to anti-vaxxers such as RFK Jr.
Forecasting the future is difficult. But here’s an easy prediction: The anti-vaccination movement in the U.S. and globally is going to result in the deaths of more children.
This grim portent comes to us courtesy of UNICEF, which is reporting that 30,601 confirmed cases of measles have been reported in Europe and Central Asia this year through Dec.5.
That’s up from 909 cases in those regions in 2022, or an increase of 3,266%.
There is no clearer sign of a breakdown in immunization coverage than an increase in cases of measles.
— Regina De Dominicis, UNICEF
UNICEF expects the final annual tally to be considerably higher, because the measles rate nearly doubled in October and November, marking a longer-term surge.
“There is no clearer sign of a breakdown in immunization coverage than an increase in cases of measles,” says Regina De Dominicis, UNICEF’s regional director for Europe and Central Asia.
In the United States, measles has remained more or less under control since the 2019 spike to 1,274 cases: 41 cases reported so far this year, down from 121 in 2022.
The 2019 surge was attributed to pockets of unvaccinated people spreading the virus. A spike also appeared in 2014, when more than half the 667 cases were attributed to unvaccinated Amish communities in Ohio.
That epidemiological pattern is what should give you qualms about what lies ahead for the U.S. That’s because the anti-vaccine movement is in full cry across the country, fueled by right-wing ideology and the presidential campaign, such as it is, of prominent anti-vaccine agitator Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
One factor spurring the spread of anti-vaccine propaganda is the politicization of the COVID-19 vaccines. One leading public health advocate has called that phenomenon an “accelerant” for the anti-vaccine movement, which likens it to a can of gasoline in the hands of an arsonist.
For anti-vaxxers, it has been only a short step from opposition to COVID vaccine mandates to opposition to all childhood immunization mandates. This has often borne the banner of “health freedom,” the idea being that individuals should have the untrammeled right to decide for themselves what to put or not put in their bodies.
That may be marginally defensible when it concerns individuals’ decisions to eat or drink themselves to death, but obviously vaccination is in a different category: A vaccine defends not only patients themselves, but everyone around them — fellow pupils, teachers, family members, strangers with whom they come into contact.
Vaccination works best when it reaches coverage of about 95% of a population, producing what is sometimes described as “herd immunity,” in which a disease is so well suppressed that even the few unvaccinated members are protected.
It doesn’t take a very large decline in vaccine coverage to spur a surge in disease incidence. Consider the record in Britain. Through 1997, about 91% of British schoolchildren had received the measles/mumps/rubella (MMR) vaccine.
In 1998, the Lancet, a then-respected British medical journal, published a notorious article claiming a link between the MMR vaccine and autism, and by 2004 the vaccine uptake had fallen to 80%. Measles cases soon surged from an average of about 100 a year through 2005 to 1,280 in 2008 and 1,920 in 2012. By then the vaccination rate had begun to recover, but as of last year it was still below 90%.
That article, by the way, was fully retracted by the Lancet in 2010 and its principal author, Andrew Wakefield, stripped of his medical license. He has since surfaced in the U.S. as a star of the domestic anti-vaccine movement, rubbing shoulders with Kennedy and his gang.
Kennedy’s entry into the political fray poses a particular peril to public health because political reporters, who may be tasked with interviewing him on policy, may be ill-equipped to challenge the fire hose of misinformation and disinformation he dispenses with cocksure certainty.
When a reporter gets it right, compliments are warranted, so let’s examine an interview that CNN’s Kasie Hunt conducted with Kennedy on Dec. 15. Hunt came armed. When she quoted Kennedy as saying “there is no vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective,” he responded, “I never said that.”
Hunt cut Kennedy off on the spot, and ran a clip from an interview in which he said, yep: “There is no vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective.”
Kennedy mumbled and bumbled for a moment or two, then confessed to a “bad choice of words” and eventually retreated to his oft-repeated assertion that none of the vaccines currently recommended for children “have ever been tested in a pre-licensing safety study.”
Unfortunately, at that point, Kennedy had Hunt at a disadvantage. His assertion was carefully phrased to sound as though the Food and Drug Administration waved through all the childhood vaccines without a second thought. In other statements, Kennedy has made clear that he means that the vaccines have not been subjected to placebo-controlled randomized, double-blinded trials. This is the core of Kennedy’s claim that he’s not “anti-vaccine,” but merely an advocate for “vaccine safety.”
As I’ve written before, this is misleading to the point of being a flagrant lie.
The truth is that the FDA doesn’t allow vaccines on the market unless they’ve been safety-tested. When a vaccine is introduced as a treatment for a disease for which no safe and effective vaccine exists, it’s subjected to one of those randomized, placebo-controlled trials.
Once it’s approved, however, that standard for later generations of the same vaccine is different. As explained by vaccine specialist Paul Offit of Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, subjecting those vaccines to placebo-controlled testing, say by injecting them with water or a saline solution instead of the vaccine, would be unethical, because it would require depriving half of the subjects of a known treatment.
The vaccines currently recommended for children are later-generation versions of shots that were placebo-tested. So are the COVID-19 vaccine boosters on the market today.
Offit points to what may be the most famous randomized trial in history, the 1954 test of Jonas Salk’s polio vaccine, in which about 200,000 first- and second-graders got the vaccine and 200,000 got salt water. Offit tells us that Salk didn’t want to structure the trial that way because polio was paralyzing 50,000 American kids a year and killing 1,500, and he felt it was wrong to deprive 200,000 of protection.
In the event, 16 of the child subjects died of polio during the study, all in the placebo group, and 36 were paralyzed, 34 of them in the placebo group. They gave their lives and health for nothing. Even today, when a clinical trial establishes that a treatment is safe and effective, it’s often halted early, so the placebo patients can get the treatment without waiting.
Hunt let this claim by Kennedy slide, perhaps because she couldn’t be prepared in advance for all the lies he was ready to spin out. But the claim was part of his known arsenal, so perhaps she should have been ready.
“With RFK Jr. running for President,” says veteran pseudoscience debunker David Gorski, “being ready with clips to bring home the evidence are not enough.” Reporters on the Kennedy beat must develop “a deep knowledge of the antivaccine claims that he’s been making since at least 2005 and then using that knowledge every time he tries to deny being antivaccine.” By his recknoning, “Kasie Hunt did way better than average with RFK Jr., but journalists need to do better still.”
Fighting back against the anti-vaccine propaganda spewed out by Kennedy and his cohort has never been as desperately crucial as it is today.
Thanks to the sustained assault on vaccination and science waged by right-wingers devoted to burnishing their own partisan bona fides rather than working in the public interest, vaccine coverage of kindergarten children has been declining since 2019 and remains well below the 95% target, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The share of children with a non-medical exemption from vaccination, such as a parent’s purported religious or moral objections, reached 3% in the 2022-23 school year, “the highest exemption rate ever reported in the United States,” the CDC reports.
In Florida, that hotbed of anti-science folderol purveyed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and his handpicked surgeon general, the anti-vaccine charlatan Joseph Ladapo, school vaccine rates for non-COVID diseases fell in 2022 to the lowest level in 10 years. Its rate fell again this year, by an appalling 0.6 percentage points to 4.5%, the 12th worst in the nation.
States with responsible leaders respond to trends that threaten public health to that degree. After California’s 2010 outbreak of whooping cough (pertussis) — 9,120 cases, the most since 1947, the majority among unvaccinated children — the Legislature eliminated almost all non-medical exemptions for childhood immunization. California’s exemption rate of 0.2% in 2022-23 was the third best in the nation, after West Virginia and New York.
Can vaccine-resisters be reached with a rational counter-argument? One would think so. They tend not to be low-income, low-information residents — two of the most-vaccinated states are West Virginia and Mississippi.
Rather, they tend to come from more affluent, educated families, the sort of people who think they’re so smart they can decide healthcare policies for themselves, no matter how complex the issue.
In this respect, however, they’re just being stupid — and irresponsible. They should be receptive to reason. Let’s hope that it doesn’t take outbreaks of dangerous diseases like measles in their school districts to open their eyes.
Science
There's a reason you can't stop doomscrolling through L.A.'s fire disaster
Even for those lucky enough to get out in time, or to live outside the evacuation zones, there has been no escape from the fires in the Los Angeles area this week.
There is hardly a vantage point in the city from which flames or plumes of smoke are not visible, nowhere the scent of burning memories can’t reach.
And on our screens — on seemingly every channel and social media feed and text thread and WhatsApp group — an endless carousel of images documents a level of fear, loss and grief that felt unimaginable here as recently as Tuesday morning.
Even in places of physical safety, many in Los Angeles are finding it difficult to look away from the worst of the destruction online.
“To me it’s more comfortable to doomscroll than to sit and wait,” said Clara Sterling, who evacuated from her home Wednesday. “I would rather know exactly where the fire is going and where it’s headed than not know anything at all.”
A writer and comedian, Sterling is — by her own admission — extremely online. But the nature of this week’s fires make it particularly hard to disengage from news coverage and social media, experts said.
For one, there’s a material difference between scrolling through images of a far-off crisis and staying informed about an active disaster unfolding in your neighborhood, said Casey Fiesler, an associate professor specializing in tech ethics at the University of Colorado Boulder.
“It’s weird to even think of it as ‘doomscrolling,’ ” she said. “When you’re in it, you’re also looking for important information that can be really hard to get.”
When you share an identity with the victims of a traumatic event, you’re more likely both to seek out media coverage of the experience and to feel more distressed by the media you see, said Roxane Cohen Silver, distinguished professor of psychological science at UC Irvine.
For Los Angeles residents, this week’s fires are affecting the people we identify with most intimately: family, friends and community members. They have consumed places and landmarks that feature prominently in fond memories and regular routines.
The ubiquitous images have also fueled painful memories for those who have lived through similar disasters — a group whose numbers have increased as wildfires have grown more frequent in California, Silver said.
This she knows personally: She evacuated from the Laguna Beach fires in 1993, and began a long-term study of that fire’s survivors days after returning to her home.
“Throughout California, throughout the West, throughout communities that have had wildfire experience, we are particularly primed and sensitized to that news,” she said. “And the more we immerse ourselves in that news, the more likely we are to experience distress.”
Absorption in these images of fire and ash can cause trauma of its own, said Jyoti Mishra, an associate professor of psychiatry at UC San Diego who studied the long-term psychological health of survivors of the 2018 Camp fire.
The team identified lingering symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anxiety both among survivors who personally experienced fire-related trauma such as injury or property loss, and — to a smaller but still significant degree — among those who indirectly experienced the trauma as witnesses.
“If you’re witnessing [trauma] in the media, happening on the streets that you’ve lived on and walked on, and you can really put yourself in that place, then it can definitely be impactful,” said Mishra, who’s also co-director of the UC Climate Change and Mental Health Council. “Psychology and neuroscience research has shown that images and videos that generate a sense of personal meaning can have deep emotional impacts.”
The emotional pull of the videos and images on social media make it hard to look away, even as many find the information there much harder to trust.
Like many others, Sterling spent a lot of time online during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Back then, Sterling said, the social media environment felt decidedly different.
“This time around I think I feel less informed about what’s going on because there’s been such a big push toward not fact-checking and getting rid of verified accounts,” she said.
The rise of AI-generated images and photos has added another troubling kink, as Sterling highlighted in a video posted to TikTok early Thursday.
“The Hollywood sign was not on fire last night. Any video or photos that you saw of the Hollywood sign on fire were fake. They were AI generated,” she said, posting from a hotel in San Diego after evacuating.
Hunter Ditch, a producer and voice actor in Lake Balboa, raised similar concerns about the lack of accurate information. Some social media content she’s encountered seemed “very polarizing” or political, and some exaggerated the scope of the disaster or featured complete fabrications, such as that flaming Hollywood sign.
The spread of false information has added another layer of stress, she said. This week, she started turning to other types of app — like the disaster mapping app, Watch Duty — to track the spreading fires and changing evacuation zones.
But that made her wonder: “If I have to check a whole other app for accurate information, then what am I even doing on social media at all?”
Science
Pink Fire Retardant, a Dramatic Wildfire Weapon, Poses Its Own Dangers
From above the raging flames, these planes can unleash immense tankfuls of bright pink fire retardant in just 20 seconds. They have long been considered vital in the battle against wildfires.
But emerging research has shown that the millions of gallons of retardant sprayed on the landscape to tame wildfires each year come with a toxic burden, because they contain heavy metals and other chemicals that are harmful to human health and the environment.
The toxicity presents a stark dilemma. These tankers and their cargo are a powerful tool for taming deadly blazes. Yet as wildfires intensify and become more frequent in an era of climate change, firefighters are using them more often, and in the process releasing more harmful chemicals into the environment.
Some environmental groups have questioned the retardants’ effectiveness and potential for harm. The efficiency of fire retardant has been hard to measure, because it’s one of a barrage of firefighting tactics deployed in a major fire. After the flames are doused, it’s difficult to assign credit.
The frequency and severity of wildfires has grown in recent years, particularly in the western United States. Scientists have also found that fires across the region have become faster moving in recent decades.
There are also the longer-term health effects of exposure to wildfire smoke, which can penetrate the lungs and heart, causing disease. A recent global survey of the health effects of air pollution caused by wildfires found that in the United States, exposure to wildfire smoke had increased by 77 percent since 2002. Globally, wildfire smoke has been estimated to be responsible for up to 675,000 premature deaths per year.
Fire retardants add to those health and environmental burdens because they present “a really, really thorny trade-off,” said Daniel McCurry, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Southern California, who led the recent research on their heavy-metal content.
The United States Forest Service said on Thursday that nine large retardant-spraying planes, as well as 20 water-dropping helicopters, were being deployed to fight the Southern California fires, which have displaced tens of thousands of people. Several “water scooper” amphibious planes, capable of skimming the surface of the sea or other body of water to fill their tanks, are also being used.
Two large DC-10 aircraft, dubbed “Very Large Airtankers” and capable of delivering up to 9,400 gallons of retardant, were also set to join the fleet imminently, said Stanton Florea, a spokesman for the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, which coordinates national wildland firefighting efforts across the West.
Sprayed ahead of the fire, the retardants coat vegetation and prevent oxygen from allowing it to burn, Mr. Florea said. (Red dye is added so firefighters can see the retardant against the landscape.) And the retardant, typically made of salts like ammonium polyphosphate, “lasts longer. It doesn’t evaporate, like dropping water,” he said.
The new research from Dr. McCurry and his colleagues found, however, that at least four different types of heavy metals in a common type of retardant used by firefighters exceeded California’s requirements for hazardous waste.
Federal data shows that more than 440 million gallons of retardant were applied to federal, state, and private land between 2009 and 2021. Using that figure, the researchers estimated that between 2009 and 2021, more than 400 tons of heavy metals were released into the environment from fire suppression, a third of that in Southern California.
Both the federal government and the retardant’s manufacturer, Perimeter Solutions, have disputed that analysis, saying the researchers had evaluated a different version of the retardant. Dan Green, a spokesman for Perimeter, said retardants used for aerial firefighting had passed “extensive testing to confirm they meet strict standards for aquatic and mammalian safety.”
Still, the findings help explain why concentrations of heavy metals tend to surge in rivers and streams after wildfires, sometimes by hundreds of times. And as scrutiny of fire suppressants has grown, the Forestry Service has set buffer zones surrounding lakes and rivers, though its own data shows retardant still inadvertently drifts into those waters.
In 2022, the environmental nonprofit Forest Service Employees for Environmental Ethics sued the government in federal court in Montana, demanding that the Forest Service obtain a permit under the Clean Water Act to cover accidental spraying into waterways.
The judge ruled that the agency did indeed need to obtain a permit. But it allowed retardant use to continue to protect lives and property.
Science
2024 Brought the World to a Dangerous Warming Threshold. Now What?
At the stroke of midnight on Dec. 31, Earth finished up its hottest year in recorded history, scientists said on Friday. The previous hottest year was 2023. And the next one will be upon us before long: By continuing to burn huge amounts of coal, oil and gas, humankind has all but guaranteed it.
The planet’s record-high average temperature last year reflected the weekslong, 104-degree-Fahrenheit spring heat waves that shuttered schools in Bangladesh and India. It reflected the effects of the bathtub-warm ocean waters that supercharged hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and cyclones in the Philippines. And it reflected the roasting summer and fall conditions that primed Los Angeles this week for the most destructive wildfires in its history.
“We are facing a very new climate and new challenges, challenges that our society is not prepared for,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union monitoring agency.
But even within this progression of warmer years and ever-intensifying risks to homes, communities and the environment, 2024 stood out in another unwelcome way. According to Copernicus, it was the first year in which global temperatures averaged more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above those the planet experienced at the start of the industrial age.
For the past decade, the world has sought to avoid crossing this dangerous threshold. Nations enshrined the goal in the 2015 Paris agreement to fight climate change. “Keep 1.5 alive” was the mantra at United Nations summits.
Yet here we are. Global temperatures will fluctuate somewhat, as they always do, which is why scientists often look at warming averaged over longer periods, not just a single year.
But even by that standard, staying below 1.5 degrees looks increasingly unattainable, according to researchers who have run the numbers. Globally, despite hundreds of billions of dollars invested in clean-energy technologies, carbon dioxide emissions hit a record in 2024 and show no signs of dropping.
One recent study published in the journal Nature concluded that the absolute best humanity can now hope for is around 1.6 degrees of warming. To achieve it, nations would need to start slashing emissions at a pace that would strain political, social and economic feasibility.
But what if we’d started earlier?
“It was guaranteed we’d get to this point where the gap between reality and the trajectory we needed for 1.5 degrees was so big it was ridiculous,” said David Victor, a professor of public policy at the University of California, San Diego.
The question now is what, if anything, should replace 1.5 as a lodestar for nations’ climate aspirations.
“These top-level goals are at best a compass,” Dr. Victor said. “They’re a reminder that if we don’t do more, we’re in for significant climate impacts.”
The 1.5-degree threshold was never the difference between safety and ruin, between hope and despair. It was a number negotiated by governments trying to answer a big question: What’s the highest global temperature increase — and the associated level of dangers, whether heat waves or wildfires or melting glaciers — that our societies should strive to avoid?
The result, as codified in the Paris agreement, was that nations would aspire to hold warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius while “pursuing efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees.
Even at the time, some experts called the latter goal unrealistic, because it required such deep and rapid emissions cuts. Still, the United States, the European Union and other governments adopted it as a guidepost for climate policy.
Christoph Bertram, an associate research professor at the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability, said the urgency of the 1.5 target spurred companies of all kinds — automakers, cement manufacturers, electric utilities — to start thinking hard about what it would mean to zero out their emissions by midcentury. “I do think that has led to some serious action,” Dr. Bertram said.
But the high aspiration of the 1.5 target also exposed deep fault lines among nations.
China and India never backed the goal, since it required them to curb their use of coal, gas and oil at a pace they said would hamstring their development. Rich countries that were struggling to cut their own emissions began choking off funding in the developing world for fossil-fuel projects that were economically beneficial. Some low-income countries felt it was deeply unfair to ask them to sacrifice for the climate given that it was wealthy nations — and not them — that had produced most of the greenhouse gases now warming the world.
“The 1.5-degree target has created a lot of tension between rich and poor countries,” said Vijaya Ramachandran, director for energy and development at the Breakthrough Institute, an environmental research organization.
Costa Samaras, an environmental-engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University, compared the warming goals to health officials’ guidelines on, say, cholesterol. “We don’t set health targets on what’s realistic or what’s possible,” Dr. Samaras said. “We say, ‘This is what’s good for you. This is how you’re going to not get sick.’”
“If we were going to say, ‘Well, 1.5 is likely out of the question, let’s put it to 1.75,’ it gives people a false sense of assurance that 1.5 was not that important,” said Dr. Samaras, who helped shape U.S. climate policy from 2021 to 2024 in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. “It’s hugely important.”
Scientists convened by the United Nations have concluded that restricting warming to 1.5 degrees instead of 2 would spare tens of millions of people from being exposed to life-threatening heat waves, water shortages and coastal flooding. It might mean the difference between a world that has coral reefs and Arctic sea ice in the summer, and one that doesn’t.
Each tiny increment of additional warming, whether it’s 1.6 degrees versus 1.5, or 1.7 versus 1.6, increases the risks. “Even if the world overshoots 1.5 degrees, and the chances of this happening are increasing every day, we must keep striving” to bring emissions to zero as soon as possible, said Inger Anderson, the executive director of the United Nations Environment Program.
Officially, the sun has not yet set on the 1.5 target. The Paris agreement remains in force, even as President-elect Donald J. Trump vows to withdraw the United States from it for a second time. At U.N. climate negotiations, talk of 1.5 has become more muted compared with years past. But it has hardly gone away.
“With appropriate measures, 1.5 Celsius is still achievable,” Cedric Schuster, the minister of natural resources and environment for the Pacific island nation of Samoa, said at last year’s summit in Azerbaijan. Countries should “rise to the occasion with new, highly ambitious” policies, he said.
To Dr. Victor of U.C. San Diego, it is strange but all too predictable that governments keep speaking this way about what appears to be an unachievable aim. “No major political leader who wants to be taken seriously on climate wants to stick their neck out and say, ‘1.5 degrees isn’t feasible. Let’s talk about more realistic goals,’” he said.
Still, the world will eventually need to have that discussion, Dr. Victor said. And it’s unclear how it will go.
“It could be constructive, where we start asking, ‘How much warming are we really in for? And how do we deal with that?’” he said. “Or it could look very toxic, with a bunch of political finger pointing.”
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