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Can China Reverse Its Population Decline? Just Ask Sweden.

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Can China Reverse Its Population Decline? Just Ask Sweden.

China’s inhabitants has begun to say no, a demographic turning level for the nation that has world implications. Consultants had lengthy anticipated this second, nevertheless it arrived in 2022 a number of years sooner than anticipated, prompting hand-wringing amongst economists over the long-term impacts given the nation’s immense financial heft and its position because the world’s producer.

With 850,000 fewer births than deaths final 12 months, no less than in response to the nation’s official report, China joined an increasing set of countries with shrinking populations brought on by years of falling fertility and sometimes little and even detrimental web migration, a gaggle that features Italy, Greece and Russia, together with swaths of Japanese and Southern Europe and a number of other Asian nations like South Korea and Japan.

Even locations that haven’t begun to lose inhabitants, reminiscent of Australia, France and Britain, have been grappling with demographic decline for years as life expectancy will increase and ladies have fewer youngsters.

Historical past suggests that after a rustic crosses the brink of detrimental inhabitants development, there may be little that its authorities can do to reverse it. And as a rustic’s inhabitants grows extra top-heavy, a smaller, youthful technology bears the growing prices of caring for a bigger, older one.

Though China’s birthrate has fallen considerably during the last 5 many years, it was lengthy a rustic with a comparatively younger inhabitants, which meant it may stand up to these low charges for a very long time earlier than beginning to see inhabitants losses. Like many developed international locations, China’s older inhabitants is now swelling — a consequence of its earlier growth — leaving it able much like that of many rich nations: in want of extra younger folks.

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Nations such because the U.S. and Germany have been capable of depend on sturdy immigration, even with comparatively low birthrates. However for international locations with detrimental web migration, reminiscent of China, extra folks requires extra infants.

“The excellent news is that the Chinese language authorities is totally conscious of the issue,” mentioned Yong Cai, a sociologist on the College of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, who makes a speciality of Chinese language demographics. “The unhealthy information is, empirically talking, that there’s little or no they will do about it.”

That’s as a result of the playbook for reinforcing nationwide birthrates is a fairly skinny one. Most initiatives that encourage households to have extra youngsters are costly, and the outcomes are sometimes restricted. Choices embody money incentives for having infants, beneficiant parental depart insurance policies and free or backed youngster care.   

20 years in the past, Australia tried a “child bonus” program that paid the equal of almost 6,000 U.S. {dollars} a baby at its peak. On the time the marketing campaign began in 2004, the nation’s fertility price was round 1.8 youngsters per girl. (For many developed nations, a fertility price of two.1 is the minimal wanted for the inhabitants to stay regular with out immigration.) By 2008, the speed had risen to a excessive of round 2, however by 2020, six years after this system had ended, it was at 1.6 — decrease than when the money funds had been first launched.

By one estimate, the initiative led to a further 24,000 births.

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Dr. Liz Allen, a demographer at the Australian Nationwide College, mentioned that this system was largely ineffective and that publicly funded paternity depart and youngster care would have been a simpler use of taxpayer cash. “Authorities intervention to extend fertility charges is finest centered on addressing the problems that stop folks from having their desired household measurement,” she mentioned.

Consultants say the simplest initiatives handle social welfare, employment coverage and different underlying financial points. France, Germany and Nordic international locations like Sweden and Denmark have had notable success in arresting the decline in birthrates, typically by means of government-funded youngster care or beneficiant parental depart insurance policies.

However even the success of these efforts has had limits, with no nation capable of attain a sustained return to the two.1 substitute price. (The U.S. price fell under 2.1 within the Seventies, slowly rose again as much as the substitute price by 2007, then collapsed once more after the Nice Recession, to a present stage slightly below 1.7.)

“You’re not going to reverse the development, however when you throw within the kitchen sink and make childbearing extra engaging,  you might be able to stop the inhabitants from falling off a cliff,” mentioned John Bongaarts, a demographer on the Inhabitants Council, a analysis establishment in New York.

Sweden is usually cited as a mannequin for growing fertility charges, because of a government-boosted bounce in its birthrate. After introducing 9 months of parental depart within the Seventies and implementing a “velocity premium” in 1980 (which incentivized moms to have a number of youngsters inside a set interval), Sweden noticed fertility rise from round 1.6 early within the decade to a peak simply above the substitute price by 1990. (The nation has since elevated its parental depart to 16 months, among the many highest on the planet.)

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After that uptick, nevertheless, Sweden’s birthrate fell by means of the ’90s. During the last 50 years, its fertility price has fluctuated considerably, rising roughly in tandem with financial booms. And whereas the nation nonetheless has one of many highest fertility charges among the many most superior economies, over the previous decade it has adopted a trajectory much like that of most developed nations: down.

Current analysis suggests a cause Sweden’s fertility spikes had been solely momentary: Households rushed to have youngsters they had been already planning to have. Stuart Gietel-Basten, a demographer on the Hong Kong College of Science and Know-how, mentioned monetary incentives seldom improve the general variety of youngsters born, however as an alternative encourage households to reap the benefits of advantages that won’t final. The spikes, he added, can have unexpected penalties. “When you could have 50,000 youngsters born one 12 months, 100,000 the subsequent, after which 50,000 the 12 months after that, it’s actually unhealthy for planning and training,” he mentioned.

Few international locations have embraced pronatalist insurance policies as vigorously as Hungary, whose right-wing populist chief, Viktor Orban, is dedicating 5 p.c of the nation’s G.D.P. towards growing birthrates. The federal government encourages procreation by means of beneficiant loans that change into items upon the beginning of a number of youngsters, tax forgiveness for moms who’ve three youngsters, and free fertility remedies.

Across the time these efforts started underneath Mr. Orban in 2010, Hungary’s fertility price was simply over 1.2, among the many lowest in Europe. Over the 2010s, that price climbed to round 1.6 — a modest enchancment at a excessive value.

It stays to be seen how far China will go to stem its decline in inhabitants, which was set in movement when the nation’s fertility price started to plummet many years in the past. That drop started even earlier than the nation’s household planning insurance policies limiting most households to a single youngster, launched in 1979. Those that defied the foundations had been punished with fines and even compelled abortions.

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The official finish of Beijing’s one-child coverage in 2016, nevertheless, has not led to an increase in births, regardless of money incentives and tax cuts for fogeys. The nation’s fertility price rose barely round that point, however has fallen since, in response to information from the United Nations: from round 1.7 youngsters per girl, on par with Australia and Britain, to round 1.2, among the many lowest on the planet. That latest drop could possibly be a results of unreliable information from China or a technical impact of delays in childbearing, nevertheless it probably additionally displays a mixture of varied pressures which have mounted within the nation over time.

Though they’re now allowed to, many younger Chinese language should not fascinated about having massive households. Vastly extra younger Chinese language persons are enrolling in increased training, marrying later and having youngsters later. Raised in single-child households, some have come to see small households as regular. However the greater obstacle to having a second or third youngster is monetary, in response to Lauren A. Johnston, an economist on the College of Sydney who research Chinese language demographics. She mentioned many dad and mom cite the excessive value of housing and training as the primary impediment to having extra youngsters. “Folks can’t afford to purchase house for themselves, not to mention for 2 youngsters,” she mentioned.

China’s authorities may ease the burden on younger households by means of housing subsidies, prolonged parental depart and elevated funding for training and pensions, specialists say. Different coverage modifications, like reforming the nation’s restrictive family registration system and elevating the official retirement age — feminine blue-collar employees should retire at 50, for instance — may enhance the nation’s working-age inhabitants, assuaging a few of the financial pressure that comes with inhabitants decline.

Although the Chinese language are unlikely to seek out extra success than the Swedes in recovering a excessive fertility price, “there may be low-hanging fruit that may permit them to squeeze extra productiveness and better labor drive participation from the inhabitants,” mentioned Gerard DiPippo, a senior fellow on the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research.

All this factors to a Chinese language inhabitants, at present 1.4 billion, that’s prone to proceed shrinking. In distinction to economists who’ve forged China’s inhabitants decline as a grim signal for world development, many demographers have been extra sanguine, noting the advantages of a smaller inhabitants.

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John Wilmoth, director of the Inhabitants Division on the United Nations, mentioned that after many years of exponential development through which the world’s inhabitants doubled to greater than seven billion between 1970 to 2014, the doom-and-gloom assessments about declining fertility charges and depopulation are typically overstated. Japan has been battling inhabitants decline for the reason that Seventies, he famous, nevertheless it stays one of many world’s largest economies. “It has not been the catastrophe that folks imagined,” Mr. Wilmoth mentioned. “Japan shouldn’t be in a dying spiral.”

Worldwide, fertility stays above the substitute price, which implies that permitting extra immigration will proceed to be an possibility for a lot of developed nations, even people who traditionally haven’t relied on it: Earlier than the pandemic, web migration into Japan, whereas comparatively low, had been growing steadily.

With out immigration, pragmatic and noncoercive measures that encourage dad and mom to have households whereas pursuing careers — in addition to insurance policies that permit folks of their 60s and 70s to maintain working — are the important thing to managing detrimental inhabitants development, Mr. Wilmoth mentioned. “Inhabitants stabilization is total a superb factor,” he mentioned. “All societies have to adapt to having older populations. What actually issues is the velocity of change, and how briskly we get from right here to there.”

 

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Judge halts ban on syringe programs as El Dorado County legal battle continues

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Judge halts ban on syringe programs as El Dorado County legal battle continues

El Dorado County cannot enforce its ban on programs that hand out clean syringes as a legal battle continues between the county and the California Department of Public Health, a Superior Court judge has ruled.

Judge Gary S. Slossberg granted a preliminary injunction to prevent El Dorado County from enforcing an ordinance that makes it unlawful to operate syringe programs in its unincorporated areas.

The judge said he was not weighing in on the heated arguments for or against syringe programs, which provide sterile needles to people who use drugs, but whether the Department of Public Health had a “reasonable probability” of prevailing in its argument that the county ordinance clashes with state law.

Friday’s decision does not end the courtroom dispute over whether the ban passed by the El Dorado County Board of Supervisors was preempted by state law, as public health officials have argued, or opposing claims by county officials that the syringe program was improperly approved by the state. Slossberg said Friday that the preliminary injunction is meant to remain in place pending a later trial.

The Department of Public Health filed suit against El Dorado County and its county seat of Placerville this year contending that their bans on syringe programs defied the state health and safety code.

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The state health department first authorized the nonprofit Sierra Harm Reduction Coalition to operate a syringe program in the county four years ago. State officials have long endorsed such programs as a proven way to prevent HIV and hepatitis C from running rampant as people share contaminated syringes.

California law gives the public health agency the power to approve syringe programs anywhere that deadly or disabling infections might spread through used needles, “notwithstanding any other law.”

Local bans on syringe programs have nonetheless sprung up across California as city and county officials argue that handing out free syringes does more harm than good. El Dorado County leaders passed their rule in December, which was followed in February by a similar ordinance in Placerville.

The lawsuit lodged by the California Department of Public Health drew objections from El Dorado County leaders: Earlier this year, Dist. Atty. Vern Pierson called it “madness” and argued that California officials were “seeking to impose the normalization of hardcore drug use.”

In a cross-complaint filed against the Department of Public Health, the county said that the syringe program approved by the state had caused “profound nuisance and public safety impacts,” including a “drastic increase in discarded needles,” and that overdoses had risen since it started.

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The county said in a legal filing that since the ban went into effect, “there has been a reduction of syringe waste, decreased incidents of public nuisance, and a resulting reduction of the burdens on law enforcement.”

It also accused the public health department of failing to follow state requirements when it approved the syringe program.

The judge did not weigh in on the cross-complaint lodged by El Dorado County at the Friday hearing. In a court filing, California officials said studies show that syringe programs provide important resources for needle disposal and play a crucial role in preventing overdoses. They credited the Sierra Harm Reduction Coalition with handing out thousands of boxes of Narcan, a brand of naloxone, a medication that reverses the effects of an opioid overdose.

The Department of Public Health argued in a legal filing that stopping the syringe program would be likely to ramp up HIV and hepatitis C infections among people who use drugs, increasing state costs for their care; lead to more deaths from drug overdoses; and reduce access to options for syringe disposal, among other harmful effects.

Because of the bans, “our most vulnerable, stigmatized, and marginalized community members are actively being denied lifesaving interventions,” Sierra Harm Reduction Coalition interim executive director Shilo Jama said in a court filing.

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Slossberg said that although he was preventing the El Dorado County ordinance from being enforced, the county might have other mechanisms to address nuisance issues that were not addressed by the decision.

Pierson, the district attorney, said in a statement Friday that “we will propose narrowing the ordinance” in response to comments made by the judge.

The California Department of Public Health said in a statement that it was “pleased with the court’s decision that upholds that state’s role in protecting the public’s health while this case proceeds.”

The Friday ruling applies only to the ordinance passed by El Dorado County. Attorney Mona Ebrahimi, who represents the city of Placerville, said a hearing involving the city had been postponed.

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This one thing may derail your shot at healthy aging, scientists say

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This one thing may derail your shot at healthy aging, scientists say

Before you settle in to binge the new season of “The Bear” or watch Team USA go for the gold at the Paris Olympics, think twice about the amount of time you spend on the couch in front of the TV. Your future self may thank you.

A new study by Harvard researchers links the popular pastime of sitting and watching television to the likelihood of reaching one’s senior years in a state of good health: the more time spent doing the former, the lower the odds of achieving the latter.

The problem doesn’t seem to be with sitting in general. After controlling for a variety of risk factors such as diet quality and smoking history, the researchers found no relationship between time spent in a chair at work and the chances of aging well. Ditto for sitting in cars or at home doing something besides watching TV, such as reading, eating meals or paying bills.

Yet for every additional two hours spent in front of the boob tube, a person’s chance of meeting the researchers’ definition of healthy aging declined by 12%, according to their study published this week in JAMA Network Open.

That does not bode well for the United States, where 62% of adults between the ages of 20 and 64 say they watch TV for at least two hours a day, as do 84% of senior citizens.

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The findings are based on data from more than 45,000 women who participated in the Nurses Heath Study. All of them were at least 50 years old and had no major chronic diseases back in 1992, when they answered a slew of questions about their health and what they did all day.

For instance, the nurses were asked how much time they spent standing or walking around at work or at home. They were asked about various types of exercise, including jogging, swimming laps, playing tennis and doing yoga. They were asked if they mowed their own lawns.

And they were asked how many hours they spent doing all kinds of sitting.

A couple watches a movie on TV at their home in Norwalk while sharing a bowl of popcorn.

(Francine Orr / Los Angeles Times)

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You might not be surprised to learn that the most popular type of sitting was sitting while watching television. More than half of the women — 53% — said they watched between six and 20 hours of TV a week. (The median among this group was around 15.4 hours per week.) Another 15% of the women said they watched between 21 and 40 hours of TV each week, and 2% watched even more.

The nurses were tracked for 20 years or until they died, whichever came first. By the end of the study period, 41% of them were still free of 11 major health conditions, including cancer, diabetes, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and multiple sclerosis. In addition, 44% of the nurses were in good mental health, 52% had no memory impairments and 16% had no physical impairments.

Only 8.6% of the women met all four of those criteria, which was what it took to achieve healthy aging.

On the whole, the women who watched more TV tended to be older, were more likely to be smokers or drinkers, consumed more calories and had higher body mass index scores than women who watched less TV. The more devoted TV watchers were also more likely to have high blood pressure and high cholesterol.

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Once the researchers accounted for these and a host of other differences, they found that the women who spent an hour or less each week sitting in front of the TV were the most likely to achieve healthy aging. Compared to them, women who watched TV for two to five hours per week were 9% less likely to be healthy agers; those who watched for six to 20 hours per week were 19% less likely; those who watched for 21 to 40 hours per week were 40% less likely; and those who watched for at least 41 hours a week were 45% less likely.

The researchers also found that replacing TV time with pretty much anything else — including sleep, for women who got no more than seven hours of shut eye per night — would increase their odds of healthy aging. The more vigorous the new activity, the bigger the boost.

Although the actual percentage of women who succeeded in healthy aging was low, the study authors estimated that another 61% of the women could have joined that rarefied group if they had done four things:

  • Spent at least three hours per day engaged in light physical activity at work.
  • Invested at least 30 minutes a day in moderate to vigorous physical activity.
  • Kept their weight in the normal range instead of being overweight or obese.
  • Limited their TV-watching time to less than three hours a day.

The study didn’t show that excess TV time caused any of the nurses to miss out on healthy aging, only that there was a significant inverse correlation between the two. Still, there’s good reason to suspect that their favorite sedentary behavior bore at least some of the responsibility.

Previous studies have linked prolonged sitting — especially while watching television — to a variety of health problems, including diseases like breast cancer, colorectal cancer, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and early death. (That particular study found that compared to sitting for less than three hours a day, sitting for at least twice that long was associated with a 17% increased risk of premature death for men and a 34% increased risk of premature death for women.)

But the researchers from Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health have taken things a step further, said Dr. I-Min Lee, an epidemiologist at Brigham & Women’s Hospital in Boston who studies how physical activity can prevent chronic diseases and extend life.

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“This study expands what we know because it looked at ‘healthy aging,’” said Lee, who was not involved in the study. “‘Health’ is not just the absence of disease; it includes dimensions of physical and mental health, function and well-being.”

All of the study subjects were women, but the biological mechanisms are likely to apply to men as well, Lee said. Even so, it would be good to actually test this relationship in men, as well as in people from a wider range of racial and ethnic backgrounds, she said. (The group of women in the original Nurses Health Study was overwhelmingly white.)

The youngest of the Baby Boomers are now turning 60, and the proportion of the U.S. population that’s at least 65 is projected to increase from roughly 17% today to nearly 21% in 2050, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

“Population aging is an important public health issue,” the study authors wrote, and strategies to promote healthy aging “are urgently needed.”

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Column: The abortion pill is safe. Is your uterus?

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Column: The abortion pill is safe. Is your uterus?

Huge sigh of relief.

In a ruling that I happily admit surprised me, the Supreme Court on Thursday affirmed the obvious: Women should have the right to safe medication abortions.

But ladies, our uteri are not safe yet.

For now, in a unanimous decision, the justices have tossed a case that would have prevented the drug mifepristone from being used by women seeking to end pregnancies.

So mify, as the drug is commonly called, is safe. But this is far from the end of the MAGA war on women.

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Let’s be clear on this: The ruling wasn’t actually about the drug. It was about the folks who brought the suit, a bunch of doctors who really didn’t have much of a reason to keep millions of women from accessing care other than they didn’t like the care those women wanted.

That’s not actually a reason to sue, even by Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas standards.

So this ruling is about “standing” and the fact that these docs didn’t have it. Already, antiabortion activists are lining up other cases with defendants whose legal footing is much more solid.

And the Supreme Court is hardly the only front in this war for women’s rights. Here’s three other ways the far-right wants to control female bodies:

First, “fetal personhood” has bubbled up as a scary push by the religious right.

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Alito hinted at this concept in the Dobbs ruling, which knocked out Roe vs. Wade, when he referred to an embryo as an “unborn human being.”

In Alabama, we saw this take greater life recently when state Supreme Court judges ruled that embryos created during in vitro fertilization should be considered protected human life (though the state Legislature for now has protected the procedure).

And this week, the Southern Baptist Conference, which speaks for more than 10 million Protestant Americans, announced it would now opposes IVF on those embryos-are-life grounds.

If courts do recognize the idea of fetal personhood, it would pave the way for abortion to be considered not just illegal, but murder. It would also give a state the right to police pregnant women in any way it deems necessary to protect the “unborn child.”

We are already seeing some states attempting to prosecute women for abortions under strict new abortion laws and dozens of states (such as Kansas) either have outright legal language broadly giving fetuses rights or language that edges right up to it. We are closer to this than you think.

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The second front on the war on women is contraception.

Though it seems insane and inane to most of us to forbid women from taking the pill or an emergency medication in the immediate aftermath of intercourse to prevent pregnancy, some folks do want to ban it as a form of abortion.

There is a logic to it. If all abortion is illegal, then anything affecting the embryo after conception is off limits.

Finally, there’s former President Trump.

I’ve written before about the Comstock Act, an obscure and angry old law that many speculated the Supreme Court justices might dredge up in this mifepristone case.

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That law (which is on the books, but not enforced) theoretically makes it illegal to mail anything that could be used in an abortion — so not just the medication. Hard-liners could argue that anything shipped to an abortion clinic to help it operate could be verboten, even latex gloves.

MAGA types are already floating the frightening notion that if Trump were elected, he could simply bypass courts and Congress and order his Department of Justice to enforce the Comstock Act — ending abortion access without technically ending abortion access.

This week, Trump send a recorded message to the Danbury Institute, an ultraconservative organization that has advocated for abortion to be prosecuted as homicide and called it “child sacrifice.”

He didn’t mention abortion, but there’s this:

“These are gonna be your years, because you’re gonna make a comeback like just about no other group,” he said. “I know what’s happening, I know where you’re coming from and where you’re going, and I’ll be with you side by side.”

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So while Thursday’s ruling is a welcome win in the fight to keep women equal, it’s a victorious battle.

The war continues.

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