Science
A transgender psychologist reckons with how to support a new generation of trans teens
Day after day, emails pour into Erica Anderson’s inbox from dad and mom struggling to help their youngsters popping out as transgender.
“He’s been depressed and anxious for the reason that pandemic started, and over the previous few days he has shared with me that he’s fairly certain he’s trans,” stated one message a few 17-year-old.
“I’m very nervous that my youngster is being pressured into eager to take [puberty] blockers, ‘as a result of that’s the subsequent step,’ ” stated one other. “We’re supportive and have helped them to socially transition, however the medical half one way or the other for her at 13 doesn’t appear proper.”
“How will we resolve whether or not an adolescent within the throes of a lot turmoil could make such a medically consequential, irreversible choice?” one other stated a few 15-year-old’s pleas for testosterone injections.
The dad and mom come to Anderson, 71, partially as a result of she herself is transgender. Anderson additionally stands out as a result of she is without doubt one of the few medical psychologists specializing in transgender youth to publicly query the sharp rise in adolescents popping out as trans or nonbinary.
She has helped lots of of teenagers transition. However she has additionally come to consider that some kids figuring out as trans are falling beneath the affect of their friends and social media and that some clinicians are failing to topic minors to rigorous psychological well being evaluations earlier than recommending hormones or surgical procedures.
“I feel it’s gone too far,” stated Anderson, who till just lately led the U.S. skilled society on the forefront of transgender care. “For some time, we had been all blissful that society was turning into extra accepting and extra households than ever had been embracing kids that had been gender variant. Now it’s received to the purpose the place there are children presenting at clinics whose dad and mom say, ‘This simply doesn’t make sense.’ ”
Her skepticism — and her willingness to talk on to the general public — places her on the heart of America’s tradition battle over trans youngsters.
Laws to ban gender-affirming medical interventions for anyone beneath 18 has been handed or launched in additional than a dozen conservative states. In February, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who has described gender surgical procedures as “youngster abuse,” instructed state officers to prosecute dad and mom who enable their youngsters to medically transition — a directive that Anderson condemned as “horrifying.”
On the opposite aspect, trans activists need to tear down obstacles to transitioning, with some accusing Anderson of getting deserted them.
“From the very starting of the historical past of psychology, cisgendered, heterosexual psychologists made this grand notion that trans and queer folks had been loopy and couldn’t make selections for themselves,” stated D. Ojeda, senior nationwide organizer on the Nationwide Middle for Transgender Equality in Washington.
Anderson sees herself within the center.
“The folks on the proper … and on the left don’t see themselves as excessive,” she stated. “However these of us who see all of the nuance can see that it is a false binary: Let all of it occur with out a methodology or don’t let any cross. Each are mistaken.”
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Anderson’s personal gender journey was painstakingly gradual.
Born in 1951, she grew up within the conservative Minnesota city of Edina, the primary of three kids of an promoting government and a schoolteacher-turned-housewife. Not like some trans folks, she has no downside sharing her start identify, Eric, or pictures from that point.
Anderson had by no means heard the phrase “transgender” when, at 12, she imagined being a lady, or at 14, sneaked right into a sister’s room to attempt on her garments.
An avid Boy Scout and church youth chief, Anderson was attracted to ladies and match simply into the rhythms of highschool life — courting, taking part in on the basketball group, serving as class president. However nothing might eradicate the ideas of being a lady — not going to college, not getting married, not turning into a father.
At the same time as Anderson started to grasp that she was transgender, she was stricken by the concept that transitioning would destroy her household and her profession as a psychologist. She additionally nervous that at 6-foot-1 with a low voice, she would by no means cross as a lady.
Attitudes about transgender folks had been evolving within the medical group, however stigma was rife. When Anderson, at 45, lastly plucked up the braveness to go to an endocrinologist, the physician shook her head and refused to prescribe hormones. Anderson walked away feeling deeply ashamed.
In the long run, it took Anderson greater than half a century to — in her phrases — “turn out to be a lady.”
At 58, she started hormone therapy to develop breasts and widen her hips. She discovered a health care provider who had pioneered new methods in facial feminization surgical procedure to shave down her jaw, sculpt her nostril and plump her lips. She legally modified her identify, received a brand new job and moved to California. At 61, she had surgical procedure to take away her penis and assemble a vagina, clitoris and labia.
It was daunting to start out courting as an older trans lady — Anderson’s spouse made it clear she wouldn’t be with a lady and so they finally divorced. However Anderson was thrilled to navigate the world as her true self.
She embraced a public position specializing in gender, becoming a member of the sector’s nationwide and worldwide associations of consultants whereas devoting a lot of her non-public observe to working with teenagers with gender points.
Usually, that meant writing letters of help to get them puberty blockers or hormones.
“You don’t fairly understand this but,” she generally joked when she was attending to know a brand new affected person. “However I’m your new greatest good friend.”
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The primary U.S. gender clinic devoted to youth opened in Massachusetts in 2007. Right this moment there are greater than 60.
In 2017, federal well being researchers surveyed highschool college students in 19 college districts and discovered that 1.8% recognized as transgender — 2½ instances the most effective estimate made 5 years earlier.
Clearly, the decline in social stigma has allowed extra teenagers to return out.
Anderson, although, started to wonder if that was the complete story. About 2016, when she started working with the Youngster and Adolescent Gender Middle at UC San Francisco Benioff Youngsters’s Hospital, she seen a rising group of transgender youth: adolescents who had not appeared to query their gender a lot, or in any respect, earlier than puberty.
Some drifted from one identification to the opposite: gender-questioning, trans, nonbinary, homosexual. And plenty of of their instances had been sophisticated by nervousness, despair, autism, bipolar dysfunction or different psychological well being circumstances that predated their want to transition.
“A good variety of youngsters are moving into it as a result of it’s stylish,” she instructed the Washington Submit in 2018. “I feel in our haste to be supportive, we’re lacking that factor.”
On the similar time, she was cautious to not overstate her level.
“I can guarantee you, transgender identification just isn’t one thing one catches,” she stated in an interview the next yr after being elected the primary transgender president of the U.S. arm of the World Skilled Assn. for Transgender Well being, or WPATH.
As hundreds of thousands of youngsters throughout the U.S. went into quarantine in 2020, Anderson discovered herself assembly increasingly dad and mom who had been startled when their kids got here out as trans. The UC San Francisco adolescent gender heart the place she labored noticed a complete of 373 new sufferers final yr — up from 162 in 2019.
The teenagers tended to inform comparable tales: They had been in on-line college, had a number of time on their arms and had been spending extra time on social media. TikTok, Instagram and YouTube, and even video video games, allowed teenagers to craft digital identities that they might then check out in the true world.
On-line, a stream of transgender influencers and activists instructed teenagers that in the event that they felt uncomfortable with their our bodies, or didn’t slot in, possibly they had been trans. Some coached youngsters on bind their breasts, change their identify and pronouns at college, push their dad and mom for testosterone.
“To flatly say there couldn’t be any social affect in formation of gender identification flies within the face of actuality,” Anderson stated. “Youngsters affect one another.”
In 4 many years as a psychologist, Anderson had witnessed waves of adolescents develop consuming problems and repressed reminiscence syndrome. Analysis means that peer affect and social tendencies performed a key position. Was gender identification actually the one sphere of adolescent improvement immune from social affect?
“What occurs when the right storm — of social isolation, exponentially elevated consumption of social media, the recognition of different identities — impacts the precise improvement of particular person youngsters?” Anderson stated. “We’re crusing in uncharted seas.”
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In early 2021, Anderson logged right into a Zoom assembly with a group of consultants at UC San Francisco to satisfy a brand new affected person and his household.
He was 13, and about two months earlier he had began figuring out as male. In keeping with his dad and mom, it wasn’t till puberty that he had proven any signal of misery over gender.
A pediatrician had already put him on testosterone, despite the fact that he had not met with a psychologist.
“Why is that this child on testosterone so precipitously?” Anderson requested her colleagues.
It didn’t take lengthy for the group to conform to discontinue the hormone and supply a referral to a gender specialist.
Quite a few research present that transgender teenagers are extra possible than their friends to expertise despair and nervousness and that gender-affirming care can assist relieve these issues.
However questions stay about weigh the advantages of medical interventions in opposition to the dangers, which embrace sterility, decreased bone density and different doubtlessly everlasting uncomfortable side effects.
Most research demonstrating the advantages deal with teenagers who went via intensive psychological well being evaluations or adults who presently establish as transgender. Neither group could also be consultant of teenagers searching for care in the present day — very similar to the universe of people that apply to varsity differs from the universe of those that graduate.
No one comprehensively tracks how typically adolescents within the U.S. obtain gender-affirming medical interventions, and what few statistics exist on how typically those that transition go on to remorse the choice are extremely contested.
Most consultants agree that teenagers ought to get an analysis earlier than receiving medical interventions. The controversy inside the discipline is over how rigorous it must be and whether or not psychological well being professionals must be concerned.
In December, WPATH proposed new requirements of take care of transgender youth: minimal ages of 14 for hormone remedy, 15 for chest masculinization and 17 for genital surgical procedures — and solely after complete assessments displaying sufferers meet the “diagnostic standards of gender incongruence” and show “persistent” gender incongruence or nonconformity for “a number of years.”
Not like Anderson, some healthcare suppliers see the proposal as a setback as a result of they are saying it provides roadblocks in contrast with the present pointers, that are greater than a decade previous.
They recommend that youngsters could be trusted simply as a lot as adults in the case of figuring out their gender identification, and level out that the newest proposed pointers for adults eradicate any requirement for psychological well being assessments.
“Being trans or gender various just isn’t a psychological sickness, and obligatory psychotherapy just isn’t the usual of care within the gender-affirming medical mannequin,” stated Dr. AJ Eckert, medical director of the Gender and Life-Affirming Medication Program on the Anchor Well being Initiative in Stamford, Conn., and the state’s first out nonbinary trans physician.
“Forcing transgender and gender various youth via intensive assessments whereas their cis friends are affirmed of their identification with out query conveys to [them] that they aren’t ‘regular,’ ” they stated.
Eckert additionally dismissed the concept that peer strain is driving some teenagers to establish as trans: “Is it stylish to be one of the marginalized and susceptible teams?”
In Eckert’s program, a affected person learns about therapy choices throughout a one-hour consumption interview. Remedy just isn’t required.
For Anderson, a member of the American Psychological Assn. committee that’s writing pointers for transgender healthcare, suppliers who pursue medical therapy for youngsters with out rigorous analysis threat committing malpractice. She stated clinicians mustn’t dismiss instances like that of Keira Bell, who sued Britain’s solely youth gender clinic, claiming that after “a collection of superficial conversations” with social staff she was prescribed puberty blockers at 16 and underwent a mastectomy at 20 — solely to remorse the choice and later resume life as a lady.
“Giving over to hormones on demand will end in many extra instances of poor outcomes and lots of extra disenchanted youngsters and fogeys who one way or the other got here to consider that giving youngsters hormones would remedy their different psychological issues,” Anderson stated. “It gained’t.”
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Anderson’s web site guarantees to “assist you turn out to be your genuine self” and her Twitter bio proclaims “Working for a radically inclusive world for _all_ transgender folks.”
Some instances, she says, are comparatively easy. After a yr of weekly conversations with Liz, a 15-year-old who had no psychological well being points and had lengthy questioned her gender earlier than she got here out as a woman, Anderson wrote a letter of help this yr for a puberty blocker implant and estrogen patches.
Many instances are extra sophisticated. Take Cody, a 16-year-old with tousled pink hair and a excessive, lilting voice, who identifies as trans male.
He and his dad and mom allowed The Instances to watch a latest Zoom session with Anderson, their second one-on-one assembly. She started by asking him what phrases he used to explain his gender.
“That’s onerous,” he stated. “The best way I describe it’s vaguely summary … I’m a man, however barely to the left.”
“OK,” Anderson stated. “Nicely, orient us. Proper and left — what’s that?”
“Oh, to the left simply means barely not,” Cody stated. “In case you take, like, a traditional man? After which simply form of take away slightly little bit of the man half, however you don’t go wherever.”
Cody has ADHD and expressed suicidal ideas through the pandemic. His dad and mom got here to Anderson on the finish of final yr after he stated he needed to go on hormones. They weren’t able to conform to any irreversible bodily modifications till he spent extra time exploring his gender identification.
After his first session with Anderson, he complained to his mother that he felt interrogated.
However Anderson begins from the premise that questions are the important thing to understanding.
In her view, gender-affirming care just isn’t accepting all the things a teen says at face worth, however partaking with the affected person in an empathetic, open-minded method. She thinks of it as one thing of a detective recreation — listening to the youngsters and fogeys and piecing collectively the historical past.
So Anderson stored on asking questions.
What did Cody imply, she requested, when he referred to his gender as summary?
“Not one or the opposite,” he stated. “But in addition in, like, a number of different dimensions.”
“A number of the folks I’m pals with expertise gender extra as like a selected vibe fairly than a bodily class,” he went on. “One good friend says that their gender is similar vibe as a raccoon. They’re not saying that their gender is a raccoon. They’re saying that their gender has the identical, like, chaotic, dumpster vibes as raccoons.”
“Dumpster?” Anderson requested. “What would the human model of that be like?”
“There isn’t one; it’s simply the identical chaotic vitality that their gender has,” Cody stated. “Which is why it’s, like, very onerous to elucidate. It’s simply form of like a dialect — a strategy to speak about gender that simply form of builds up inside teams.”
Anderson doesn’t presume to grasp how everybody who identifies as transgender thinks. Whereas she embraces a considerably typical feminine identification — modern blond hair, manicured crimson nails, a glittery pink iPhone — many teenagers domesticate extra esoteric concepts of gender.
Some really feel uncomfortable as women however don’t establish with cisgender males. Many go for androgynous seems: dishevelled pants, hoodies, brief hair. Typically they need high surgical procedure however should not fascinated about hormones. Or they need simply sufficient testosterone to decrease their voice however not sufficient to develop physique hair. Some, she believes, assemble gender identities so idiosyncratic that they battle to develop shared which means.
After asking Cody extra about his historical past of gender misery, his chats along with his dad and mom and what may ease his discomfort, she organized to satisfy him the next week.
It might possible take months of exploration or longer to resolve whether or not Cody was prepared for hormone remedy.
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In an period when nearly any remark about medical therapy for trans youngsters can result in accusations of kid abuse or transphobia, many clinicians are cautious of talking to the media.
Not Anderson. Six years in the past, she got here out as trans to 2 million folks on a well-liked Swedish actuality TV present and was shocked to seek out not simply acceptance however invites to debate transgender healthcare with politicians and reporters. She determined that speaking to the media was a significant method of elevating understanding.
In October, as her two-year tenure as president of the U.S. arm of WPATH was nearing its finish, Anderson granted an interview to Abigail Shrier, creator of the contentious 2020 ebook “Irreversible Injury: The Transgender Craze Seducing Our Daughters.” Anderson instructed her that too many clinicians had been dashing teenagers into medicalization and that “sloppy healthcare work” would end in “extra younger adults who will remorse having gone via this course of.”
She was not the one main trans healthcare determine to publicly specific such issues. Dr. Marci Bowers, a vaginoplasty specialist from Burlingame, Calif., who had simply been elected president of WPATH, instructed Shrier that she nervous concerning the dangers of puberty blockers for youngsters within the early levels of puberty and steered that a few of her friends needed to stifle dissenting views “to maintain out anybody who doesn’t completely purchase the occasion line that all the things must be affirming.”
The story, revealed on Substack, ricocheted throughout social media. Many clinicians had been shocked that Anderson and Bowers spoke to Shrier, a former Wall Road Journal columnist who’s considered by activists as anti-trans.
WPATH and its American department, USPATH, quickly launched a assertion saying they welcomed scientific dialogue amongst consultants on medical therapy for transgender youth, however that they “oppose using the lay press, both neutral or of any political slant or viewpoint, as a discussion board for the scientific debate of those points, or the politicization of those points in any method.”
The USPATH board established a 30-day moratorium on talking to the information media — a transfer Anderson interpreted as a “not very thinly veiled effort” to silence her.
“I’ve made the case for a extra open posture to the press and the general public,” she stated in a letter saying her resignation from the board. “We have to interact them in supporting our work and the requirements of care.”
In an interview, Dr. Madeline Deutsch, the brand new president of USPATH, dismissed Anderson’s issues as a “tempest in a teapot.”
“Most consultants on this space agree there needs to be some form of evaluation,” stated Deutsch, who can also be transgender. “We simply must type out what that’s.”
Anderson didn’t elevate her issues at board conferences earlier than she spoke to the media. If she had, Deutsch stated, “it’s one thing that the board would completely have taken critically,” noting that it had since arrange a activity drive to have a look at youth evaluation.
Anderson stated the USPATH board was “not geared up” to take care of the problem, as a result of the one different member who specialised in youth was Dr. Johanna Olson-Kennedy, a pediatrician at Youngsters’s Hospital in Los Angeles who has voiced skepticism of psychological assessments for youth.
For Deutsch, debating the potential dangers of medical therapy within the media risked weaponization by conservatives.
“The reality is that the overwhelming majority of children who current for hormone remedy and begin hormone remedy keep on hormone remedy, and it improves their lives,” Deutsch stated. “We have to cease throwing out the child with the bathwater.”
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Over the previous couple of months, some European nations have reversed course and urged extra warning.
In February, well being authorities in Sweden, a pioneer in trans healthcare, stated that “unsure science,” rising numbers of people that remorse transitioning and potential uncomfortable side effects prompted the nation to limit utilizing hormone therapies for most individuals beneath 18.
France’s Nationwide Academy of Medication additionally suggested warning in using blockers or hormones for youth, citing potential uncomfortable side effects. “The danger of over-diagnosis is actual, as evidenced by the rising variety of younger adults wishing to ‘detransition,’ ” the academy stated.
Irrespective of how carefully Anderson follows the rules for trans care, she worries she might make the mistaken name.
Each time she logs on to satisfy a shopper, she thinks of all of the harms she might inflict — by inaction, by not being supportive sufficient, by dashing somebody via the method.
Some activists have accused her of pretending to be an ally whereas justifying bigotry that restricts entry to medical providers.
“You’re killing kids along with your hate,” one nameless critic wrote on Twitter.
Final fall, Anderson left UC San Francisco to deal with her non-public observe. Since then she has written quite a few op-eds and given varied interviews. She has organized transgender ladies’s luxurious retreats within the Mexican Riviera and on-line seminars for fogeys of transgender youngsters. However she can also be angling for a brand new profession as a tv host — filming a pilot for a present through which she hopes to coach the general public about various identities and convey “some form of sanity to a extremely polarized atmosphere.”
Greater than a decade after Anderson transitioned, she just isn’t in contact together with her ex-wife, however she has a cheerful relationship with each her grownup kids. After courting women and men, she has a girlfriend. She feels extra accepted as a trans lady now than she ever imagined potential.
However she generally wonders whether or not she ought to give up working with trans youth.
“I’ve these non-public ideas: ‘This has gone too far. It’s going to worsen. I don’t need any a part of it,’ ” she stated. “I fear that individuals will accuse me of setting the prepare in movement, as a part of those that advocated the affirmative strategy to gender in youth, despite the fact that that’s not an affordable account of what occurred.”
For now, Anderson continues to boost questions in her observe and within the media.
In doing so, she follows the recommendation she provides teenagers whose pals inform them “Don’t doubt it. You’re trans.”
“I’ve a dictum: When doubtful, doubt,” she stated. “Questioning is an efficient factor. How are you going to seek out out if you’re lockstep with no matter conclusion you come to first?”
Science
2024 Brought the World to a Dangerous Warming Threshold. Now What?
At the stroke of midnight on Dec. 31, Earth finished up its hottest year in recorded history, scientists said on Friday. The previous hottest year was 2023. And the next one will be upon us before long: By continuing to burn huge amounts of coal, oil and gas, humankind has all but guaranteed it.
The planet’s record-high average temperature last year reflected the weekslong, 104-degree-Fahrenheit spring heat waves that shuttered schools in Bangladesh and India. It reflected the effects of the bathtub-warm ocean waters that supercharged hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and cyclones in the Philippines. And it reflected the roasting summer and fall conditions that primed Los Angeles this week for the most destructive wildfires in its history.
“We are facing a very new climate and new challenges, challenges that our society is not prepared for,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union monitoring agency.
But even within this progression of warmer years and ever-intensifying risks to homes, communities and the environment, 2024 stood out in another unwelcome way. According to Copernicus, it was the first year in which global temperatures averaged more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above those the planet experienced at the start of the industrial age.
For the past decade, the world has sought to avoid crossing this dangerous threshold. Nations enshrined the goal in the 2015 Paris agreement to fight climate change. “Keep 1.5 alive” was the mantra at United Nations summits.
Yet here we are. Global temperatures will fluctuate somewhat, as they always do, which is why scientists often look at warming averaged over longer periods, not just a single year.
But even by that standard, staying below 1.5 degrees looks increasingly unattainable, according to researchers who have run the numbers. Globally, despite hundreds of billions of dollars invested in clean-energy technologies, carbon dioxide emissions hit a record in 2024 and show no signs of dropping.
One recent study published in the journal Nature concluded that the absolute best humanity can now hope for is around 1.6 degrees of warming. To achieve it, nations would need to start slashing emissions at a pace that would strain political, social and economic feasibility.
But what if we’d started earlier?
“It was guaranteed we’d get to this point where the gap between reality and the trajectory we needed for 1.5 degrees was so big it was ridiculous,” said David Victor, a professor of public policy at the University of California, San Diego.
The question now is what, if anything, should replace 1.5 as a lodestar for nations’ climate aspirations.
“These top-level goals are at best a compass,” Dr. Victor said. “They’re a reminder that if we don’t do more, we’re in for significant climate impacts.”
The 1.5-degree threshold was never the difference between safety and ruin, between hope and despair. It was a number negotiated by governments trying to answer a big question: What’s the highest global temperature increase — and the associated level of dangers, whether heat waves or wildfires or melting glaciers — that our societies should strive to avoid?
The result, as codified in the Paris agreement, was that nations would aspire to hold warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius while “pursuing efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees.
Even at the time, some experts called the latter goal unrealistic, because it required such deep and rapid emissions cuts. Still, the United States, the European Union and other governments adopted it as a guidepost for climate policy.
Christoph Bertram, an associate research professor at the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability, said the urgency of the 1.5 target spurred companies of all kinds — automakers, cement manufacturers, electric utilities — to start thinking hard about what it would mean to zero out their emissions by midcentury. “I do think that has led to some serious action,” Dr. Bertram said.
But the high aspiration of the 1.5 target also exposed deep fault lines among nations.
China and India never backed the goal, since it required them to curb their use of coal, gas and oil at a pace they said would hamstring their development. Rich countries that were struggling to cut their own emissions began choking off funding in the developing world for fossil-fuel projects that were economically beneficial. Some low-income countries felt it was deeply unfair to ask them to sacrifice for the climate given that it was wealthy nations — and not them — that had produced most of the greenhouse gases now warming the world.
“The 1.5-degree target has created a lot of tension between rich and poor countries,” said Vijaya Ramachandran, director for energy and development at the Breakthrough Institute, an environmental research organization.
Costa Samaras, an environmental-engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University, compared the warming goals to health officials’ guidelines on, say, cholesterol. “We don’t set health targets on what’s realistic or what’s possible,” Dr. Samaras said. “We say, ‘This is what’s good for you. This is how you’re going to not get sick.’”
“If we were going to say, ‘Well, 1.5 is likely out of the question, let’s put it to 1.75,’ it gives people a false sense of assurance that 1.5 was not that important,” said Dr. Samaras, who helped shape U.S. climate policy from 2021 to 2024 in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. “It’s hugely important.”
Scientists convened by the United Nations have concluded that restricting warming to 1.5 degrees instead of 2 would spare tens of millions of people from being exposed to life-threatening heat waves, water shortages and coastal flooding. It might mean the difference between a world that has coral reefs and Arctic sea ice in the summer, and one that doesn’t.
Each tiny increment of additional warming, whether it’s 1.6 degrees versus 1.5, or 1.7 versus 1.6, increases the risks. “Even if the world overshoots 1.5 degrees, and the chances of this happening are increasing every day, we must keep striving” to bring emissions to zero as soon as possible, said Inger Anderson, the executive director of the United Nations Environment Program.
Officially, the sun has not yet set on the 1.5 target. The Paris agreement remains in force, even as President-elect Donald J. Trump vows to withdraw the United States from it for a second time. At U.N. climate negotiations, talk of 1.5 has become more muted compared with years past. But it has hardly gone away.
“With appropriate measures, 1.5 Celsius is still achievable,” Cedric Schuster, the minister of natural resources and environment for the Pacific island nation of Samoa, said at last year’s summit in Azerbaijan. Countries should “rise to the occasion with new, highly ambitious” policies, he said.
To Dr. Victor of U.C. San Diego, it is strange but all too predictable that governments keep speaking this way about what appears to be an unachievable aim. “No major political leader who wants to be taken seriously on climate wants to stick their neck out and say, ‘1.5 degrees isn’t feasible. Let’s talk about more realistic goals,’” he said.
Still, the world will eventually need to have that discussion, Dr. Victor said. And it’s unclear how it will go.
“It could be constructive, where we start asking, ‘How much warming are we really in for? And how do we deal with that?’” he said. “Or it could look very toxic, with a bunch of political finger pointing.”
Science
U.S. Efforts to Cut Emissions Stalled in 2024 as Power Demand Surged
America’s efforts to cut its climate change pollution stalled in 2024, with greenhouse gas emissions dropping just a fraction, 0.2 percent, compared to the year before, according to estimates published Thursday by the Rhodium Group, a research firm.
Despite continued rapid growth in solar and wind power, emissions levels stayed relatively flat last year because demand for electricity surged nationwide, which led to a spike in the amount of natural gas burned by power plants.
The fact that emissions didn’t decline much means the United States is even further off-track from hitting President Biden’s goal of slashing greenhouse gases 50 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Scientists say all major economies would have to cut their emissions deeply this decade to keep global warming at relatively low levels.
Since 2005, United States emissions have fallen roughly 20 percent, a significant drop at a time when the economy has also expanded. But to meet its climate goals, U.S. emissions would need to decline nearly 10 times as fast each year as they’ve fallen over the past decade. That seems increasingly unlikely, experts say, especially since President-elect Donald J. Trump has promised to dismantle Mr. Biden’s climate policies and promote the production of fossil fuels, the burning of which generates greenhouse gases.
“On the one hand, it is notable that we’ve now seen two years in a row where the U.S. economy grew but emissions went down,” said Ben King, an associate director at the Rhodium Group. “But it’s far from enough to achieve our climate targets.”
The biggest reason that U.S. emissions have fallen in recent years is that electric utilities have been retiring their older, dirtier coal-fired power plants and replacing them with cheaper and less-polluting natural gas, wind and solar power. That trend mostly continued last year, with a few unexpected ups and downs.
The nation’s demand for electricity, which has stayed more or less flat for two decades, suddenly jumped by roughly 3 percent in 2024, in large part because scorching heat during the summer caused many Americans to crank up their air-conditioners. A smaller factor was that tech companies have been building more energy-hungry data centers in states like Virginia and Texas.
While power companies installed large numbers of wind turbines, solar panels and batteries last year to meet rising demand, natural gas use also rose to record highs, while coal use declined only slightly. The net result was that emissions from the power sector increased an estimated 0.2 percent, according to the Rhodium Group.
At the same time, transportation, the nation’s largest source of greenhouse gases, saw an 0.8 percent rise in emissions last year. Gasoline and jet fuel consumption both increased as Americans continued to drive and fly more after the pandemic. Nearly 10 percent of new car sales in 2024 were less-polluting electric vehicles, but those models still make up a small fraction of total cars on the road and have yet to put a major dent in transportation emissions.
On the flip side, emissions from America’s industrial sector — which includes steel, cement and chemicals — fell by 1.8 percent in 2024. Some of that may have been the result of lost output, as two hurricanes and a strike at the nation’s ports disrupted some factory activity in the fall, Mr. King said.
“It’s a reminder that there’s always some bumpiness in emissions,” Mr. King said. “It’s not just a question of how many electric vehicles are on the road or how much solar we’ve installed. A big portion of our economy still relies on fossil fuels.”
One of the most striking findings in this year’s data was that emissions from oil and gas operations dropped roughly 3.7 percent in 2024. Even though the United States produced record amounts of oil and near-record amounts of natural gas last year, many companies appear to have curbed leaks of methane, which is the main ingredient in natural gas and which can seep into the atmosphere and contribute significantly to global warming.
Over the past few years, the Biden administration and several states have adopted new regulations that require oil and gas producers to detect and fix methane leaks. Many companies also have financial incentives to capture methane to sell rather than vent it into the air.
Between 2014 and 2024, U.S. companies appear to have reduced the amount of methane that escaped, per each cubic feet of gas they produced, by 40 percent, according to the Rhodium Group.
Several experts have estimated that greenhouse gases generated in the United States could start dropping sharply in the years ahead if many clean energy policies stay in place, particularly the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act that pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into low-carbon energy technologies such as electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear reactors, green hydrogen and batteries.
While Mr. Trump has pledged to scrap many of Mr. Biden’s subsidies and tax credits for electric vehicles and low-carbon energy, it remains to be seen whether Congress will agree.
That law has not yet had a major impact on the country’s emissions, said Mr. King, since it takes time for new factories to open and power plants to get built. But, he said, data shows that low-carbon energy and transportation now make up fully 5 percent of total U.S. private investment.
“That’s a leading indicator that things are changing quickly,” he said.
Science
How to protect yourself from the smoke caused by L.A. wildfires
You don’t have to live close to a wildfire to be affected by its smoke. With severe winds fanning the fires in and around Pacific Palisades, the Pasadena foothills and Simi Valley, huge swaths of the Southland are contending with dangerous air quality.
Wildfire smoke can irritate your eyes, nose, throat and lungs. The soot may contain all kinds of dangerous pollutants, including some that may cause cancer. The tiniest particles in smoke can travel deep into your lungs or even enter your bloodstream.
Conditions like these aren’t good for anyone, but they’re particularly bad for people in vulnerable groups, including children, those with asthma or other respiratory conditions, people with heart disease and those who are pregnant.
Here’s what you should know to keep yourself safe.
Stay indoors
Minimize your exposure to unhealthy air by staying inside and keeping your doors and windows shut.
If you have a central heating and air conditioning system, you can keep your indoor air clean by turning it on and keeping it running. Make sure the fresh-air intake is closed so that you’re not drawing in outdoor air.
Keep your pets inside
They shouldn’t breathe the unhealthy air either.
Check your air filters
Clean filters work better than dirty ones, and high-efficiency filters work better than regular ones. The California Air Resources Board and the South Coast Air Quality Management District recommend filters with a MERV rating of 13 or higher.
You might consider using portable high-efficiency air cleaner in a room where you spend the most time. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has information about them here, and CARB has a list of certified cleaning devices here.
Don’t pollute your indoor air
That means no burning candles or incense. If your power is out and you need to see in the dark, you’re much better off with a flashlight or headlamp.
If you’re cold, bundle up. This is not the time to start a cozy fire in the fireplace. Don’t use a gas stove or wood-fired appliances, since these will make your indoor air quality worse, not better, the AQMD says.
The CDC also advises against vacuuming, since it can stir up dust and release fine particles into the air.
Take care when cleaning up
You don’t want your skin to come into contact with wildfire ash. That means you should wear long sleeves, pants, gloves, socks and shoes. The AQMD even wants you to wear goggles.
If you’re sweeping up ash outdoors, get a hose and mist it with water first. That will keep it from flying up in the air as you move it around. Once the ash is wet, sweep it up gently with a broom or mop. Bag it up in a plastic bag and throw it away.
It’s a good idea to wash your vehicles and outdoor toys if they’re covered in ash. Try not to send ashy water into storm drains. Direct the dirty water into ground areas instead, the AQMD advises.
Those with lung or heart problems should avoid clean-up activities.
Discard spoiled food…
If you lost power for a significant length of time, the food in your refrigerator or freezer may be spoiled.
Food kept in a fridge should stay safe for up to four hours if you’ve kept the door closed. If you’ve been without power for longer than that, you’ll need to toss all perishable items, including meat, poultry, fish, eggs, milk and cut fruits and vegetables. Anything with “an unusual smell, color, or texture” should be thrown out as well, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease and Control Prevention.
Refrigerated medicines should be OK unless the power was out for more than a day. Check the label to make sure.
…even if it was in the freezer
Your freezer may be in better shape, especially if it’s well-stocked. Items in a full freezer may be safe for up to 48 hours if it’s been kept shut, and a half-full freezer may be OK for up to 24 hours. (The frozen items help keep each other cold, so the more the better.)
If items have remained below 40 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) or you can still see ice crystals in them, they may be OK to use or refreeze, according to the federal government’s food safety website.
Ice cream and frozen yogurt should be thrown out if the power goes out for any amount of time. Meat, poultry, seafood, eggs, milk and most other dairy products need to go if they were exposed to temperatures above 40 degrees F for two hours or longer. The same goes for frozen meals, casseroles, soups, stews and cakes, pies and pastries with custard or cheese fillings.
Fruit and fruit juices that have started to thaw can be refrozen unless they’ve started to get moldy, slimy or smell like yeast. Vegetables and vegetable juices should be discarded if they’ve been above 40 degrees F for six hours or more, even if they look and smell fine.
Breakfast items like waffles and bagels can be refrozen, as can breads, rolls, muffins and other baked goods without custard fillings.
Consider alternative shelter
If you’ve done everything you can but your eyes are still watering, you can’t stop coughing, or you just don’t feel well, seek alternative shelter where the air quality is better.
Hold off on vigorous exercise
Doing anything that would cause you to breathe in more deeply is a bad idea right now.
Mask up outdoors
If you need to be outside for an extended time, be sure to wear a high-quality mask. A surgical mask or cloth mask won’t cut it — health authorities agree that you should reach for an N95 or P-100 respirator with a tight seal.
Are young children at greater risk of wildfire smoke?
Very young children are especially vulnerable to the effects of wildfire smoke because their lungs are still rapidly developing. And because they breathe much faster than adults, they are taking in more toxic particulate matter relative to their tiny bodies, which can trigger inflammation, coughing and wheezing.
Any kind of air pollution can be dangerous to young children, but wildfire smoke is about 10 times as toxic for children compared to air pollution from burning fossil fuels, said Dr. Lisa Patel, clinical associate professor of pediatrics at Stanford Children’s Health. Young children with preexisting respiratory problems like asthma are at even greater risk.
Patel advises parents to keep their young children indoors as much as possible, create a safe room in their home with an air purifier, and try to avoid using gas stoves to avoid polluting the indoor air.
Children over the age of 2 should also wear a well-fitting KN95 mask if they will be outdoors for a long period of time. Infants and toddlers younger than that don’t need to mask up because it can be a suffocation risk, Patel said.
What are the risks for pregnant people?
Pregnant people should also take extra precautions around wildfire smoke, which can cross the placenta and affect a developing fetus. Studies have found that exposure to wildfire smoke during pregnancy can increase the risk of premature birth and low birth weight. Researchers have also linked the toxic chemicals in smoke with maternal health complications including hypertension and preeclampsia.
What about other high-risk populations?
Certain chronic diseases including asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or other respiratory conditions can also make you particularly vulnerable to wildfire smoke. People with heart disease, diabetes and chronic kidney disease should take extra care to breathe clean air, the CDC says. The tiny particles in wildfire smoke can aggravate existing health problems, and may make heart attacks or strokes more likely, CARB warns.
Get ready for the next emergency
Living in Southern California means another wildfire is coming sooner or later. To prepare for the bad air, you can:
- Stock up on disposable respirators, like N95 or P-100s.
- Have clean filters ready for your A/C system and change them out when things get smoky.
- Know how to check the air quality where you live and work. The AQMD has an interactive map that’s updated hourly. Just type in an address and it will zoom in on the location. You can also sign up to get air quality alerts by email or on your smartphone.
- Know where your fire extinguisher is and keep it handy.
- If you have a heart or lung condition, keep at least five days’ worth of medication on hand.
Times staff writer Karen Garcia contributed to this report.
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