Donald Trump posted notable gains in Orange County during the November election, but it was not enough to win the increasingly purple county that has become a suburban battleground between Republicans and Democrats — and a reflection of the demographic political realignment unfolding across the nation.

Kamala Harris won Orange County, but by a much tighter margin than either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020. When it comes to presidential politics, Orange County has backed Democrats since 2016, with increasingly blue areas such as Santa Ana, Anaheim and Irvine besting more red areas such as Huntington Beach and south Orange County.

But experts say the 2024 results offer some warning signs for Democrats.

“What the early numbers indicate is that Donald Trump made inroads with minority voters including probably substantial gains with Latino and Asian voters,” said Jeff Corless, a former strategist for Orange County Dist. Atty. Todd Spitzer. “What we’re hearing is that he made those same kinds of gains in other communities similar to Orange County across the country. He also made gains with traditional suburban voters, which he struggled with in 2020.”

Paul Mitchell, a Democratic data specialist, said Trump probably did better in the county because of lower Democratic turnout this year compared with 2020, as well as voters being familiar — and potentially comfortable — with Trump because of their experience during his prior tenure.

“It may also be Trump has been normalized, in an odd way,” Mitchell said. “He’s been in our political eyesight for the last decade now. Maybe voters like the economy better under Trump.”

In 2016, Clinton received roughly 100,000 more votes in Orange County than Trump, making her the first Democrat county voters selected for the presidency in 80 years. In 2020, Biden fared even better, besting Trump by more than 137,500 votes. Now, Harris has edged out Trump, but the margin of victory is on trend to be much tighter than seen in past elections.

Votes in Orange County are still being counted and final numbers aren’t required to be certified by the county until Dec. 5 and by the state until Dec. 13. But it’s clear, experts say, that Trump harnessed the disillusionment felt by voters who are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economic pains that have beset many living in the suburbs.

“People in the press and people like me still so often take Trump literally, whereas voters lived through this once and the apocalypse didn’t happen and they liked the economy better,” said Rob Stutzman, a veteran GOP strategist and Trump critic who previously advised former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

He noted that Trump’s improved performance in Orange County was not an outlier.

“He did better — look at how he did in New York, on the Eastern Seaboard, in Massachusetts,” Stutzman said. “There are red dots that never existed the last few decades.”

Still, there were some bright spots for Democrats, notably being able to hold on to a congressional seat that became open because Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine pursued an unsuccessful Senate bid, and flipping the 45th Congressional District. In that race, first-time candidate Derek Tran defeated Republican Rep. Michelle Steel of Seal Beach in a hotly contested race that became one of the most expensive in the country.

A UC Irvine poll released last year conveyed discord among Orange County voters, particularly Republicans and those who choose not to identify with a political party, who said despite their optimism about Orange County and somewhat about California, they did not have a good feeling about the future of America.

“The [election] results are much more a statement about people’s dissatisfaction with the current national administration than some grand statement about Trump or Republicans,” said Jon Gould, dean of the university’s School of Social Ecology.

“This is not a sign that Orange County is suddenly a red county,” Gould said. “This is exactly what it means to be a purple county.”

Michele Monda, a Republican who lives in the deep-blue city of Laguna Beach, voted for Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 with her son and grandchildren in mind. The high housing costs and general lack of affordability have made it a challenge for middle-class couples, like her son and daughter-in-law, to build a life in many parts of California, including Orange County.

“Who is looking out for them?” Monda said. “They’re barely getting by, and quite honestly, the Democrats don’t seem to care. While I know Trump is a billionaire, I think he understands the needs of a middle-class person.”

Economics and Trump’s stance on immigration were the two main drivers that motivated her to vote for him. While she’s not always a fan of Trump’s behavior, she loves his policies. It’s not surprising, she said, that others in Orange County were swayed to his side as well.

“I think people have had enough of the Democrat party line, enough of the economy, enough of the whole platform. The things they espouse they just don’t work,” Monda said. “I think people in California are waking up.”

Trump’s improvement in the county has generated excitement among California Republicans who for years have tried to strengthen its hold on Orange County as Democratic voter registration grew and elections became more competitive.

For decades, Orange County was a conservative stronghold — the birthplace of former President Nixon, the cradle of Ronald Reagan’s ascent to the governor’s mansion and then the White House, and, for decades, a virtual synonym for the Republican Party of California.

The county’s shift over the last decade from deeply red to a more politically and demographically diverse region has fascinated the public for years.

“Orange County is a battleground,” said Jon Fleischman, a Republican campaign strategist and former executive director of the California GOP.

Trump’s popularity boost among Latinos and Asian Americans seen nationally could very well also be at play in swing counties such as Orange County. Republicans in the county for years have sought to attract Latinos and Asian Americans to their party with mixed success, and Trump’s performance could signal gains among these voter blocs, as well as Black Americans. He also won back some suburban women who turned against the Republican Party during his 2016 campaign and in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn federal protection for abortion access in 2022.

Democrats leaned heavily into messaging about the loss of reproductive rights during this year’s campaign, in television ads and during their convention when they nominated Harris. However, Stutzman contended that the argument failed to resonate with suburban women in affluent areas such as Orange County as much as Democrats expected it to.

“Most women in America still have access — an overwhelming majority have access to abortion,” he said. “I just don’t know if there’s a connection, any real existential threat that their rights are being further eroded than they have been.”

Though Harris won the majority of votes across deep-blue California, Trump was on track to win Butte, Stanislaus, Fresno, Inyo, San Bernardino and Riverside counties, all areas that Biden carried in 2020. Trump also gained ground in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles County compared with 2016 and 2020.

“In order for Trump to win Orange County, he had to make inroads with minority voters, and he did that through issues that mattered to them and the struggles they’re facing,” Corless said.

Democrats’ ability to register voters in Orange County has also slowed.

Between October 2022 and October 2024, the Democratic Party in Orange County grew by just over 3,100 voters. At the same time, the Republican Party’s numbers swelled by 31,000 people, according to data from the California secretary of state.

In the years that the GOP voter registration waned, the number of nonparty-preference voters grew. Many longtime Republicans in Orange County, irritated by Trump’s outlandish speaking style and policy positions, branded themselves as “Never Trumpers.” But Republicans in Orange County have made a concerted effort this cycle to reregister former GOP voters and push early voting and mail ballots, a recognition of how much Trump’s opposition to such efforts harmed the party in 2020.

“When Trump was first elected, he was not everybody’s favorite flavor of ice cream, and I think you saw a lot of Republicans who decided to become independent,” Fleischman said. “I think as people have decided that they’re OK with Trump, they’ve been coming back to the party.”

The Republican Party of Orange County went as far as hosting a ballot collection day on Oct. 11 in which Republican Party offices served as designated ballot-drop locations. The move, it said at the time, makes voting more accessible while “maintaining the highest level election integrity.”

A federal appeals court on Wednesday ruled that Texas has the right to build a razor wire border wall to deter illegal immigration into the Lone Star State. 

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced the ruling on X, saying President Biden was “wrong to cut our razor wire.” 

“We continue adding more razor wire border barrier,” the Republican leader wrote. 

Wednesday’s 2-1 decision by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals clears the way for Texas to pursue a lawsuit accusing the Biden administration of trespassing without having to remove the fencing.

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It also reversed a federal judge’s November 2023 refusal to grant a preliminary injunction to Texas as the state resisted federal efforts to remove fencing along the Rio Grande in the vicinity of Eagle Pass, Texas.

Circuit Judge Kyle Duncan, a Trump appointee during the president-elect’s first term, wrote for Wednesday’s majority that Texas was trying only to safeguard its own property, not “regulate” U.S. Border Patrol, and was likely to succeed in its trespass claims.

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Duncan said the federal government waived its sovereign immunity and rejected its concerns that a ruling by Texas would impede the enforcement of immigration law and undermine the government’s relationship with Mexico.

A Venezuelan immigrant asks Texas National Guard troops to let his family pass through razor wire after they crossed the Rio Grande from Mexico in Eagle Pass, Texas, Sept. 27, 2023. (John Moore/Getty Images)

He said the public interest “supports clear protections for property rights from government intrusion and control” and ensuring that federal immigration law enforcement does not “unnecessarily intrude into the rights of countless property owners.”

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton called the ruling a “huge win for Texas.” 

“The Biden Administration has been enjoined from damaging, destroying, or otherwise interfering with Texas’s border fencing,” Paxton wrote in a post on X. “We sued immediately when the federal government was observed destroying fences to let illegal aliens enter, and we’ve fought every step of the way for Texas sovereignty and security.”

Migrants attempt to cross the southern border in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, in February. (David Peinado/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The White House has been locked in legal battles with Texas and other states that have tried to deter illegal immigration. 

In May, the full 5th Circuit heard arguments in a separate case between Texas and the White House over whether the state can keep a 1,000-foot floating barrier on the Rio Grande.

The appeals court is also reviewing a judge’s order blocking a Texas law that would allow state officials to arrest, prosecute and order the removal of people in the country illegally.

U.S. Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) secured a temporary restraining order Tuesday against a former boyfriend, saying in dozens of pages of court filings that he had bombarded her, as well as her family and colleagues, with hundreds of messages that she described as “persistent abuse and harassment.”

Porter, 50, alleged in a filing with Orange County Superior Court that her ex-boyfriend Julian Willis, 55, was contacting her and her family with such frequency that she had a “significant fear” for her “personal safety and emotional well-being.”

Judge Stephen T. Hicklin signed a restraining order Tuesday barring Willis from communicating with Porter and her children until a mid-December court hearing. He also barred Willis from communicating about Porter with her current and former colleagues.

In the court filing, Porter said that Willis had been hospitalized twice since late 2022 on involuntary psychiatric holds and had a history of abusing prescription painkillers and other drugs.

She said in a statement to The Times that Willis’ mental health and struggles with addiction seemed to have gotten worse since she asked him in August to move out of her Irvine home. She said she sought the court order after his threats to her family and colleagues “escalated in both their frequency and intensity.”

“I sincerely hope he gets the help he needs,” Porter said.

Willis declined to comment. He will have an opportunity to file a legal response to the temporary restraining order and challenge Porter’s allegations.

Porter is leaving the House of Representatives in January after losing in California’s U.S. Senate primary in March. She has been discussed as a front-runner in the 2026 governor’s race in California after Gov. Gavin Newsom is termed out, but has not said whether she will launch a campaign.

The 53-page court filing, first reported by Politico, included 22 pages of emails, text messages and other communications among Porter, family members and colleagues who had received messages from Willis, as well as messages that Willis sent to Porter’s attorney and to her political mentor Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

The filing also included messages between herself and Willis’ siblings as they discussed trying to help him during his psychiatric holds and while he was staying in a sober-living facility.

Porter said that since she ordered Willis to move out, he had sent her more than 1,000 text messages and emails, including texting her 82 times in one 24-hour period in September, and 55 times on Nov. 12 before she blocked his number.

Porter said in the filing that her ex-boyfriend had “already contacted at least three reporters to disseminate false and damaging information” about her and her children, which she said “poses a serious risk to [her] career and personal reputation.”

The filing includes an email that Porter said Willis sent to her attorney late Monday, in which Willis said he had visited Porter’s son at college in Iowa and told him that he would “bring the hammer down on Katie and smash her and her life into a million pieces.”

Another screenshot shows Willis telling Porter’s attorney that he would file a complaint about Porter, who has children ages 12 and 16, with child protective services.

One of Porter’s congressional staff members received a text message from Willis saying he would “punish the f—” out of him if he did not agree to “cooperate” with a New York Times reporter and Willis’ attorneys, according to a screenshot included in the court document.

Willis previously made the news in 2021, when he was arrested after a fight that broke out at a Porter town hall at a park in Irvine.

Times staff writer Christopher Goffard contributed to this report.