Cornell Belcher, a prominent pollster who worked for the Democratic National Committee and both Obama campaigns, wishes the party’s leaders would shut up about President Biden’s poll numbers.

“There’s too much talk about polling right now,” Belcher said. “As a pollster, it’s driving me out of my … mind that people are trying to drive whatever narrative they want by using polling.”

In recent days, Biden has faced mounting calls to drop out of the race from members of his own party. Many have pointed to worsening poll numbers for the 81-year-old incumbent since a disastrous debate performance last month. Some fear that questions about the president’s mental acuity will doom down-ballot candidates too.

But with Biden repeatedly insisting that he is not stepping aside, Belcher said, Democrats harping on his slipping support were hurting, not helping, their cause.

“Over the last three weeks, Democrats have done more damage to our ability to win in November than what Donald Trump and Republicans have been able to do,” Belcher said. “They have to stop [the] circular firing squad that they’re currently in, because it’s a death spiral.”

While calls from Congress members and major donors for Biden to step aside have dominated headlines in recent days, plenty of other Democratic loyalists have stood by the president and dismissed those calls as damaging and dangerous — posing challenging questions for the party.

How much longer should leaders push Biden to go? Will it be possible to refocus voters on the party’s accomplishments and core message — that former President Trump represents an existential threat to democracy? Is Vice President Kamala Harris a better candidate? Or anyone else?

Perhaps most important: What is the party’s plan for right now?

“That,” said one senior House Democratic aide, “is what we’re all trying to figure out.”

‘A test of how strong the party is’

During an interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Friday, Jen O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s campaign chair, said Biden was “absolutely” running.

O’Malley Dillon said the campaign is “looking at polling” and acknowledged “some slippage in support” since the debate. But she said it was only “a small movement” in a “hardened” race where many Americans are already decided — meaning many were committed to Biden.

O’Malley Dillon said that internal data from door-knocking and other efforts in battleground states have shown that Biden is still a contender.

Many leading Democrats were making the opposite case.

“Simply put,” Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San José) wrote in a letter to Biden released Friday, “your candidacy is on a trajectory to lose the White House and potentially impact crucial House and Senate races down ballot.”

Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), center, speaks as the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol holds its final meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington on Dec. 19, 2022. From left, Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San José), Thompson and Vice Chair Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).

(Jim Lo Scalzo / Associated Press)

Earlier in the week, a polling memo by the Democratic firm BlueLabs Analytics found that alternative candidates outperformed Biden in a theoretical matchup with Trump in battleground states. An Associated Press poll found nearly two-thirds of Democrats thought Biden should withdraw.

Michael Kazin, a Georgetown University history professor and author of “What It Took to Win: A History of the Democratic Party,” said the divide between Biden loyalists and dissenters presented a unique challenge.

“It’s a test of how strong the party is in many ways,” he said. “And not just how strong it is, but how united it is in believing that defeating Trump is really critical.”

Kazin said there is no doubt Democratic leaders can shift their support to a new candidate. They just need to decide if that’s what they are going to do — and before the party’s convention next month in Chicago.

A contested convention, Kazin said, would be “fraught with lots of perils” — stirring fresh divisions when the party can least afford them.

“They have to have a successful convention, one way or the other,” Kazin said. “Otherwise, they’re doomed.”

If it’s Biden

Whether Biden will drop out of the race is ultimately up to one person: Joe Biden. And if he stays the course, party officials would have no choice but to get on board, political analysts said.

Kerry L. Haynie, a political science professor at Duke University, said a Biden win in November will require all of the dissenters to swiftly offer “a full-throated endorsement of the campaign,” and then to “work in lockstep” to turn out the vote and reframe the race once more as a choice between “competent, honest Joe” and a dangerous Donald Trump.

Democrats will have to articulate well the idea that Biden “has lost a step” with age, but is “still capable, he’s still doing the job,” Haynie said.

President Biden speaks at the 115th NAACP National Convention in Las Vegas on Tuesday. Democrats at the highest levels are making a critical push for Biden to reconsider his election bid. Former President Obama has privately expressed concerns to Democrats about Biden’s candidacy.

(Susan Walsh / Associated Press)

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Democratic leaders also could emphasize that voting for Biden ensures a Democratic administration — one that will protect access to abortion, take a humane stance on immigration, appoint liberal judges and defend organized labor, LGBTQ+ people and other groups.

But Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University, said Democrats have to be careful with that message given today’s political atmosphere and distrust in bureaucrats.

“There are some people who hear that and they think ‘deep state,’” she said. “It is compelling to some, but it is repelling to others.”

Belcher, the pollster, said that if poor poll numbers this early in a race were an acceptable reason for ousting a candidate, “most of the greatest candidates in history” would never have been elected — including the Black one-term senator “with a Muslim-sounding name” he once worked for.

Democrats need to drive home the idea that Biden has made people’s lives better in regular ways, he said. They have to contrast Biden’s plan with Project 2025, the ultraconservative playbook devised for Trump’s second term by the Heritage Foundation and other conservative groups, he said, and “lean back into America’s fear and anxiety about the chaos and dangers of four more years of Donald Trump.”

Most of all, Belcher said, Democrats need to get behind Biden as surrogates and champion his campaign message in as many places as possible.

“The best arguments for Biden that I have heard in the last two weeks haven’t been from anyone on CNN or MSNBC,” Belcher said. “It’s been on TikTok and Instagram, from people doing it in their cars.”

If Biden steps aside

If Biden steps aside, the party could coalesce around another candidate, or hold a contested convention where candidates vie for delegates.

Several experts said early, unwavering support for Harris was clearly the best option.

Gillespie said if Harris were “somehow overlooked” without convincing evidence that her candidacy would fair dramatically worse than another candidate’s, the party would “risk alienating the most loyal Democratic constituency in Black women.”

Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to attend the opening of a pop-up ice cream shop owned by Tyra Banks, left, in Washington, on Friday.

(Nathan Howard / Associated Press)

Haynie said Harris would bring new energy and important strengths to the ticket as a younger woman of color who has already been leading the Biden campaign’s message on abortion rights, and as the daughter of immigrants, given Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric.

But she also would have to defend the Biden administration’s record even as party insiders try to pull her in new policy directions, including on U.S. support of Israel in its war with Hamas. She would have to rebuff legitimate criticisms about her clumsy 2020 presidential campaign and how she’s performed as vice president.

Harris also would face racist, sexist challenges that other candidates, especially white men, would not.

“She is going to face unique challenges as a woman of color in terms of the tenor of the attacks,” Gillespie said. “She is going to have to be able to anticipate those attacks, and have a ready response to them.”

Amy K. Dacey, executive director of the Sine Institute of Policy & Politics at American University, was formerly CEO of the Democratic National Committee, and before that of Emily’s List, a national group that works to elect Democratic women.

Dacey said that despite Harris’s hurdles, she is a known entity to voters who has been tested on the national stage — unlike some other names that have been floated for the ticket.

Dacey said the party process is playing out as intended, and Democrats still have time to land on a final ticket. But the sooner they can do that — and refocus the race on policies over people — the better.

It wasn’t a shock, but a moment of déjà vu. A sequence of pops and cracks, a chilling moment of silence across the crowd of more than 15,000, and President Trump being rushed at by his security detail. Is this really happening?

As a field producer with one of the five major broadcast networks, you are occasionally assigned as the “network pool” responsible to be the eyes and ears at a major event of interest, directing a small team with the goal of providing editorial independence to the press corps. Frankly, it’s a mundane job, a series of emails and messages of people coming and going and hoping that you are sent to a place with good internet. That was my role at Trump’s Butler rally on Saturday, July 13, and up until 6:11 p.m., it was uneventful.

In that 30 seconds after hearing the first sequence of gunshots, screams and cheering, I didn’t know much, but I did know that whatever was going on was life-changing.

I’ve covered conflicts and protests all over the world, from Jan. 6 to Ukraine to Israel. These assignments often put you in a place where you become out of control. I found that imagining myself in those situations and thinking about what I would do in that scenario cooled my nerves, planning your mindset ahead to stay in the moment. 

SECRET SERVICE REVEALS WHEN TRUMP SHOOTER WENT FROM ‘PERSON OF INTEREST’ TO ‘THREAT’

Instinctually, that mindset flipped back in. As I was still trying to process what was happening, somehow I remembered the story of Shelly Fielman, the cameraman who filmed the Reagan assassination. I turned to my cameraman and without hesitation called out, “Keep your eyes on Trump! Do not stop filming under any circumstance.” We had to capture the moment, no matter what would happen.

But it still wasn’t clear what exactly was happening. When the president was pulled from the ground and dragged away to his motorcade after punching his fist in the air, I realized I had to send some sort of wire report.

From left to right: Ray Flegal, truck op; James Levinson, producer; Don Yost, audio tech; Mark Zoni, photographer. (Fox News)

At that moment, many of us couldn’t believe what we had just seen. All indications pointed to some kind of attack. But we didn’t actually know that. Though placed in a riser situated just 100 feet away from the stage, we didn’t see any gunmen, couldn’t see if Trump was injured and heard barely anything besides screaming from the audience.

SECRET SERVICE DIRECTOR AGREES TO TESTIFY AT HOUSE HEARING ON TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT

Former President Trump, a Republican presidential candidate, is taken away by Secret Service agents after a bullet tore through the former President’s ear in Butler, Pa. (Rebecca Droke/AFP via Getty Images)

Verify then report. Trust is built on accuracy. Analysis or guesses only cause more confusion. Your words are used to guide the editorial to the whole world. You represent the press corps, and the duty is to get it right. With virtually no internet, I called my boss and said the following:

FROM POOL PRODUCER JAMES LEVINSON:

Pool heard a series of loud explosions or loud bangs// USSS went and immediately covered President Trump//Pool heard residual bangs afterwards and crowd ducked for cover//Agents grabbed Trump, who was seen waving his fist in air, they left stage left to car and appear to have left the premises//Pool is efforting more information from campaign

Butler, Pennsylvania, location of former President Trump’s rally. (Fox News)

The work continued — hours of calls, follow-ups and confirmations before being rushed away by the Secret Service.

REPUBLICANS WEIGH IN ON WHAT THEY HOPE AND EXPECT TO HEAR IN TRUMP’S RNC SPEECH: ‘THIS IS HIS MOMENT’

Former President Trump at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

To date, that video has been viewed, analyzed and reposted in every corner of the internet. It tells a story on its own, but it’s important to remember that it is only one part of the puzzle of what actually happened that day. In the hours after the incident, the theories, motives and speculations dominated the conversation.

Butler, Pennsylvania, crowd at former President Trump’s rally. (Fox News)

In every conversation I’ve had about the attempted assassination, the same three words come: “You witnessed history.” I think it’s also important to remember that for three families who came to the rally, that day will be remembered as one of the worst of their lives. I’m sure they wished it was just any ordinary day.

Butler, Pennsylvania, location of former President Trump’s rally. (Fox News)

I’ve learned in this job that history is often associated with tragedy. It’s a privilege to cover moments like this, and our duty is to make sure we can be as accurate as possible and treat our readers and viewers with respect. More information and rewrites and reviews will continue to come. I hope that my first draft of history met that moment.

Donald Trump couldn’t restrain himself.

The former president’s aides had promised that his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention would showcase a “softer,” more conciliatory Trump — and, for perhaps 20 minutes, it did.

But for viewers who watched the whole 92-minute stem-winder, which devolved into a meandering list of bogus claims and well-worn grievances, the lesson was that there is no New Trump. If anything, this year’s version of Trump is even Trumpier than before — one committed to cementing the populist transformation of the GOP for at least another generation.

So the convention in Milwaukee ended with its mission only half accomplished.

Political conventions are lumbering anachronisms, but they survive because they serve two purposes. First, they ratify a choice of nominee and unify and inspire party activists. Then they take advantage of free television time to present their message to the uncommitted but persuadable voters they need to win.

This week’s convention ratified not only Trump’s third nomination, but also the lasting triumph of his grievance-based MAGA ideology over the rest of the GOP. It brought skeptical holdouts like former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley back into the Trumpist fold (even though she drew boos) and produced a show of party unity.

But when it came to a message that might persuade suburban voters, women and others in the center of the electorate that this year’s Trump is an improvement over previous models, the convention fell short — a missed opportunity for a candidate who has never won more than 47% of the popular vote.

The first time Trump won the GOP nomination, in 2016, it was a hostile takeover by an insurgent with weak Republican credentials. Dissidents like Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio’s then-Gov. John Kasich warned that the New York real estate mogul was taking the party down a path to destruction.

The second time, in 2020, Trump’s nomination was automatic, the traditional act of a party denominating an incumbent president.

This time, the convention made it clear that the old business-dominated, “country club” Republican Party of Richard M. Nixon, Ronald Reagan and the two George Bushes is long gone.

“Trump has realigned the parties in a way that wasn’t there before,” said Geoffrey Kabaservice, author of “Rule and Ruin,” a history of modern Republicanism. “Almost every white working-class voter is going to be a Republican. Almost every college-educated voter is going to be a Democrat” — a reversal of the norm for more than half a century. “That realignment appears likely to last several decades at least.”

The most striking evidence is the nominee’s choice of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance for vice president.

The 39-year-old populist was the Trumpiest of the three finalists; North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio had roots in the party’s pre-Trump establishment.

In his convention speech, Vance made it clear that, like Trump, he blames old-style Republicans like the Bushes for the nation’s ills as much as he blames Democrats.

“From Iraq to Afghanistan, from the financial crisis to the Great Recession, from open borders to stagnating wages, the people who govern this country have failed and failed again,” he said.

Vance’s selection may have partly reflected electoral strategy: He could help the ticket win white working-class voters in the industrial swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. But it was also a signal of the direction Trump wants the party to take in 2028.

“Vance is a generational play, not an electoral play,” Democratic strategist David Axelrod said.

In a second Trump administration, Vance would not act as a restraining influence, as Burgum or Rubio might have, but as an intensifier of Trump’s populist instincts.

Vance has been more explicit than Trump on his desire to end U.S. aid to Ukraine immediately. “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine, one way or the other,” he said in 2022.

Intriguingly, Vance has broken from GOP orthodoxy — and from Trump’s positions — on several economic issues. He has said he does not think cuts in corporate taxes, a key part of Trump’s agenda, are necessary. He has suggested he could support a $20 minimum wage, anathema to most business leaders.

Some of the most interesting battles of a second Trump administration could center on those issues.

“What you have in this ticket is a weird amalgam of plutocratic populism,” Kabaservice said. “It’s incoherent and inconsistent. It’s not clear which parts Trump has signed onto. After all, which part of his agenda is most likely to pass? I think the answer is big corporate tax cuts.”

Trump’s acceptance speech was also a weird amalgam — between the kinder, gentler nominee his aides had hoped to showcase and the angry, resentful candidate he has been for most of the last decade.

On Thursday morning, daughter-in-law Lara Trump, vice chair of the GOP, promised that the acceptance speech would reveal “a bit softer version” of the nominee, who she said had been deeply affected by his brush with death after being wounded in a gunman’s assassination attempt.

But after a long description of the assassination attempt and a brief appeal to national unity — “We must not criminalize dissent or demonize political disagreement,” Trump said — he resumed demonizing President Biden and other Democrats, including “crazy Nancy Pelosi,” accusing them of “destroying our country.”

Trump’s definition of “unity,” it turned out, did not include mutual respect or bipartisan cooperation. It boiled down to accepting his policies and dropping every federal prosecution he faces.

“If Democrats want to unify our country, they should drop these partisan witch hunts,” he said.

Most of the address — much of which departed from his written text, as Trump usually does — was a loop of greatest hits from Trump’s stump speeches. It included a torrent of bogus claims, accusations and yet another admiring mention of the “late, great” fictional cannibal, Hannibal Lecter. The only sign of restraint was that this time, he did not use the word “vermin” to describe his political opponents or promise to prosecute them if he reaches the White House.

If he had accomplished the change in tone that his aides sought to broaden his appeal, he might have paved a path for his party to a popular-vote majority and control of the House of Representatives and Senate. But the speech he gave probably kept alive the doubts many voters have about his fitness for office.

And he gave Democrats an opening they can exploit — but only if they can settle on a nominee of their own.