The Republican push to flip a Democrat-held House seat in a swing district that President Donald Trump carried in his three White House runs just got a big boost.

Hours after four-term House Democratic Rep. Jared Golden announced that he wouldn’t seek re-election in the 2026 midterms in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, two top nonpartisan political handicappers shifted the now open seat towards the Republicans.

The race in the district, which is the second-most rural in the U.S. and the largest east of the Mississippi River, is one of the most closely watched House contests in the country next year as the Republicans aim to hold their fragile majority in the chamber. And Golden’s announcement rocked the race.

“I’ve been fielding calls for the last 24 hours about how this is a bellwether for whether or not the Democrats can try to retake Congress, as this was, by many accounts, the most competitive House seat in the nation,” veteran Republican consultant Brent Littlefield told Fox News Digital on Thursday.

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Littlefield is the top campaign advisor to former two-term GOP Gov. Paul LePage, who earlier this year decided to come out of political retirement and launch a congressional bid in the district.

Golden, a U.S. Marine veteran who deployed to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and who often bucks his own party in Congress, has held the seat since first winning it in 2018. He won re-election last year by a razor-thin margin.

“After 11 years as a legislator, I have grown tired of the increasing incivility and plain nastiness that are now common from some elements of our American community — behavior that, too often, our political leaders exhibit themselves,” Golden said in an op-ed for the Bangor Daily News, where he revealed his unexpected decision.

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The moderate Democrat took shots at both parties in his 2026 announcement.

“We have seen mainstream Republicans stand by as their party was hijacked first by Tea Party obstructionists and then by the MAGA movement and its willingness to hand much of Congress’ authority to the president,” Golden wrote.

And he added, “I fear Democrats are going down the same path. We’re allowing the most extreme, pugilistic elements of our party to call the shots.”

Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, attends a news conference in the Capitol Visitor Center in Washington, July 17, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

In the wake of Golden’s announcement, nonpartisan political handicapper Inside Elections said, “we’re changing our rating from Tilt Democratic to Likely Republican, in a positive development for the GOP and making it more challenging for Democrats to gain the three seats they need for a majority.”

And Sabato’s Crystal Ball, another leading nonpartisan handicapper, shifted the race from toss-up to lean Republican.

“Republicans will flip this seat red in 2026,” National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spokeswoman Maureen O’Toole pledged.

But Rep. Suzan DelBene, the chair of the rival Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), emphasized that “Democrats will do everything necessary to keep this seat blue so that Mainers continue to have a voice fighting for them in Congress — and we are confident we will be successful.”

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Golden had been facing a primary challenge from longtime politician and current state auditor Matt Dunlap.

“In the days and months ahead, I intend to vigorously campaign for Congress in Maine’s second congressional district – and I intend to win,” Dunlap vowed on Wednesday.

Maine state auditor Matt Dunlap is primary challenging Democratic Rep. Jared Golden in the state’s 2nd Congressional District. (Matt Dunlap for Congress )

But sources told Fox News Digital that the DCCC is now recruiting for another candidate in the race.

Golden wrote in his op-ed, “I don’t fear losing. What has become apparent to me is that I now dread the prospect of winning. Simply put, what I could accomplish in this increasingly unproductive Congress pales in comparison to what I could do in that time as a husband, a father and a son.”

LePage, in a social media post Wednesday afternoon, didn’t directly mention Golden but wrote, “This race has always been about fighting for rural Maine. As Governor, I spent eight years helping create jobs and making Maine more prosperous. I am running for Congress to make sure that working Maine families have a voice in Washington D.C. This fight is just beginning.”

But on Thursday, the 77-year-old LePage posted to social media a recent poll that indicated he held a 5-point lead over Golden in next year’s showdown, adding that “LePage wins in every poll.”

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LePage then juxtaposed the news that Golden wouldn’t seek re-election.

But Littlefield isn’t taking anything for granted, especially after this week’s convincing election victories by Democrats in high-profile contests in blue-leaning New Jersey and Virginia.

“It’s still going to be a tough race,” Littlefield told Fox News Digital. “It’s not a cakewalk.”

Fox News’ Liz Elkind contributed to this report

On Tuesday, I voted for the first time. Not for a president, not in a midterm, but in the California special election to counter Texas Republicans’ gerrymandering efforts. What makes this dynamic particularly fascinating is that both parties are betting on the same demographic — Latino voters.

For years, pundits assumed Latinos were a lock for Democrats. President Obama’s 44-point lead with these voters in 2012 cemented the narrative: “Shifting demographics” (shorthand for more nonwhite voters) would doom Republicans.

But 2016, and especially the 2024 elections, shattered that idea. A year ago, Trump lost the Latino vote by just 3 points, down from 25 in 2020, according to Pew. Trump carried 14 of the 18 Texas counties within 20 miles of the border, a majority-Latino region. The shift was so significant that Texas Republicans, under Trump’s direction, are redrawing congressional districts to suppress Democratic representation, betting big that Republican gains made with Latinos can clinch the midterms in November 2026.

To counter Republican gerrymanders in Texas, Gov. Gavin Newsom and California Democrats pushed their own redistricting plans, hoping to send more Democrats to the House. They too are banking on Latino support — but that’s not a sure bet.

Imperial County offers a cautionary tale. This border district is 86% Latino, among the poorest in California, and has long been politically overlooked. It was considered reliably blue for decades; since 1994, it had backed every Democratic presidential candidate until 2024, when Trump narrowly won the district.

Determined to understand the recent shift, during summer break I traveled in Imperial County, interviewing local officials in El Centro, Calexico and other towns. Their insights revealed that the 2024 results weren’t just about immigration or ideology; they were about leadership, values and, above all, economics.

“It was crazy. It was a surprise,” Imperial County Registrar of Voters Linsey Dale told me. She pointed out that the assembly seat that represents much of Imperial County and part of Riverside County flipped to Republican.

Several interviewees cited voters’ frustration with President Biden’s age and Kamala Harris’ lack of visibility. In a climate of nostalgia politics, many Latino voters apparently longed for what they saw as the relative stability of the pre-pandemic Trump years.

Older Latinos, in particular, were attracted to the GOP’s rhetoric around family and tradition. But when asked about the top driver of votes, the deputy county executive officer, Rebecca Terrazas-Baxter, told me: “It wasn’t immigration. It was the economic hardship and inflation.”

Republicans winning over voters on issues such as cost of living, particularly coming out of pandemic-era recession, makes sense, but I am skeptical of the notion that Latino voters are fully realigning themselves into a slate of conservative positions.

Imperial voters consistently back progressive economic policies at the ballot box and hold a favorable view of local government programs that deliver tangible help such as homebuyer assistance, housing rehabilitation and expanded healthcare access. In the past, even when they have supported Democratic presidential candidates, they have voted for conservative ballot measures and Republican candidates down the ticket. Imperial voters backed Obama by a wide margin but also supported California’s Proposition 8, banning same-sex marriage. This mix of progressive economics and conservative values is why Republican political consultant Mike Madrid describes Latino partisanship as a “weak anchor.”

The same fluidity explains why many Latinos who rallied behind Sen. Bernie Sanders in 2020 later voted for Trump in 2024. Both men ran as populists, promising to challenge the establishment and deliver economic revival. For Latinos, it wasn’t about left or right; it was about surviving.

The lesson for both parties in California, Texas and everywhere is that no matter how lines are drawn, no district should be considered “safe” without serious engagement.

It should go without saying, Latino voters are not a monolith. They split tickets and vote pragmatically based on lived economic realities. Latinos are the youngest and fastest-growing demographic in the U.S., with a median age of 30. Twenty-five percent of Gen Z Americans are Latino, myself among them. We are the most consequential swing voters of the next generation.

As I assume many other young Latino voters do, I approached my first time at the ballot box with ambivalence. I’ve long awaited my turn to participate in the American democratic process, but I could never have expected that my first time would be to stop a plot to undermine it. And yet, I feel hope.

The 2024 election made it clear to both parties that Latinos are not to be taken for granted. Latino voters are American democracy’s wild card — young, dynamic and fiercely pragmatic. They embody what democracy should be: fluid, responsive and rooted in lived experience. They don’t swear loyalty to red or blue; they back whoever they think will deliver. The fastest-growing voting bloc in America is up for grabs.

Francesca Moreno is a high school senior at Marlborough School in Los Angeles, researching Latino voting behavior under the guidance of political strategist Mike Madrid.