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The elements of a peace deal in Ukraine are clear — but the two sides can’t get there yet

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The struggle in Ukraine, which simply entered its second month, exhibits no signal of ending quickly.

Russia’s large however incompetent military has been stymied in its makes an attempt to grab the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and different cities. Ukraine’s defenders have put up a heroic combat, however civilians in besieged cities are struggling a horrible toll. Neither military seems able to give up. Either side thinks it nonetheless has an opportunity to outlast the opposite.

That, diplomats say, is why the possibilities for a cease-fire look so dim — regardless that, oddly sufficient, the substances of a deal to finish the struggle are in plain sight.

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In current talks — some public, others non-public — officers from each international locations have steered attainable compromises.

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky has provided one public concession: He’s keen to desert his quest for membership within the North Atlantic Treaty Group, which Putin initially stated was the rationale for the struggle.

“We’re advised that we can not enter [NATO],” Zelensky stated not too long ago. “It’s true, and it should be acknowledged.” He has steered that Ukraine may settle for formal “neutrality,” however provided that the USA and different international locations assure its safety in opposition to one other invasion.

Putin might have tacitly lowered his ambitions, too. He initially demanded the “denazification” of Ukraine’s authorities — his pejorative time period for changing the democratically elected Zelensky with a pro-Russian president. In current weeks, Russian officers have stopped mentioning that demand.

A high Russian normal made it sound as if Moscow has scaled again its army goals, too.

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In an official briefing on Friday, Military Maj. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi, the equal of a deputy chief of workers, claimed that Russia by no means meant to grab Kyiv. Russian forces, he stated, will now give attention to gaining full management of Donetsk and Luhansk, the 2 areas in jap Ukraine the place pro-Russian rebels have declared independence.

However Putin has different, steeper calls for. He has insisted that Zelensky settle for Russia’s annexation of Crimea, which Russian troops seized in 2014, and acknowledge the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Zelensky and his aides have rejected these land grabs and have demanded that Russia withdraw from all of Ukraine. However they’ve provided what one former diplomat known as a inventive compromise: Whereas they gained’t agree formally to Russia’s annexation of any a part of their nation, they may promise to pursue reunification solely by peaceable means.

The 2 sides have been speaking sporadically, however they continue to be far aside on these key points.

“There is no such thing as a consensus,” Ukrainian International Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated final week. “The negotiation course of may be very troublesome.”

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The underlying downside, present and former U.S. officers stated, is that Putin nonetheless seems to consider his forces can win.

“Putin doesn’t sound as if he’s determined to settle,” Alexander R. Vershbow, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, advised me. “He hasn’t given up hope that his forces will regroup. So now, as an alternative of preventing all over the place in Ukraine, they seem like specializing in one or two fronts, to see what extra they’ll get” — a type of salami-slice technique.

In the meantime, he added, Ukraine’s forces are operating low on the antiaircraft and antitank missiles they used to nice impact within the struggle’s opening weeks.

“The Ukrainians have been heroic, however they’ll’t go on ceaselessly,” he stated. “They want a quicker provide course of. … That, greater than anything, will contribute to a choice by Putin to barter.”

In the meantime, he stated, it’s not too early for U.S. diplomats to contemplate what the weather of a peace settlement must be — as a result of a few of them will contain pledges from our facet.

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“The toughest half will probably be safety ensures for Ukraine,” he stated.

The USA and its allies gained’t present the kind of protection assure that NATO membership brings, he stated, however they need to take into account formalizing their present safety relationship with Ukraine: ensures of army provides, intelligence assist and financial assist.

“It may embody limits: no overseas bases in Ukraine, no offensive weapons that might threaten Russia. However the Ukrainians ought to have the precise to a strong military that can obtain help from different international locations once they want it.”

Support to Ukraine, in addition to sanctions on Moscow, could also be wanted for years — a frightening prospect for European international locations that depend upon Russia for gasoline and oil.

However a full-scale peace settlement will probably be troublesome to barter, partly due to these insoluble territorial disputes, Vershbow warned.

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“They may simply revert to a state of no struggle, no peace. … It may depart the 2 international locations in a long-term, low-level battle. That’s probably the most miserable situation, however possibly the most definitely one.”

Neither facet will triumph. Either side will probably be broken, battered, offended and resentful. The exhausting half will probably be guaranteeing that no matter truce they negotiate may be made to stay — to make sure that this isn’t simply the primary chapter in a for much longer struggle.

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Politics

Trump says 'biggest problem' not Biden's age, 'decline,' but his policies in first appearance since debate

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Trump says 'biggest problem' not Biden's age, 'decline,' but his policies in first appearance since debate

At former President Trump’s first rally since the presidential debate, he argued the nation’s “biggest problem” is not President Biden’s age and “decline,” but his destructive policies.

Speaking to a crowd of more than 1,000 at Historic Greenbrier Farms in Chesapeake, Virginia, Friday, Trump took a victory lap after the first 2024 presidential debate.

Trump told supporters every voter should ask one question before heading to the polls Nov. 5.

“The question every voter should be asking themselves today is not whether Joe Biden can survive a 90-minute debate performance, but whether America can survive four more years of crooked Joe Biden in the White House,” he said.

TRUMP, BIDEN SPAR OVER GOLF HANDICAPS AS THEY TRY TO CONVINCE VOTERS THEY ARE NOT TOO OLD FOR THE PRESIDENCY

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Former President Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Historic Greenbrier Farms in Chesapeake, Va., July 28, 2024. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)

Former U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin

Former President Trump, a Republican presidential candidate, shakes hands with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin during a rally at Greenbrier Farms June 28, 2024, in Chesapeake, Va.  (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

“Remember, the biggest problem for our country is not Joe Biden’s personal decline,” Trump said. “It’s that Joe Biden’s policies are causing America’s decline at a level that we’ve never seen before.

“That’s why this November, the people of Virginia and the people of America are going to tell crooked Joe Biden, ‘You’re fired.’”

Joe Biden

Biden said he is committed to winning the election, brushing aside mounting calls from prominent Democrats to step aside following his disastrous debate against Republican Donald Trump. (Cornell Watson/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

President Biden addressed his campaign performance at a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, saying, “I don’t debate as well as I used to.

BIDEN’S INNER CIRCLE SILENT AS PARTY REELS FOLLOWING ‘EMBARRASSING’ DEBATE PERFORMANCE

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“I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done,” he told a roaring crowd that chanted “Four more years.”

“The choice in this election is simple,” Biden said. “Donald Trump will destroy our democracy. I will defend it.”

Joe and Jill Biden

President Biden and first lady Jill Biden delivered remarks at a campaign rally at the Jim Graham Building at the North Carolina State Fairgrounds in Raleigh, N.C., June 28, 2024. (Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Biden’s age and mental acuity have been at the forefront as voters inch closer to Election Day.

Biden, 81, is the oldest president in history and has faced skepticism from voters and Republican lawmakers about his ability to do the job.

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Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term, while Trump would be 82.

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Kinky Friedman, musical satirist and writer who also ran for Texas governor, dies at 79

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Kinky Friedman, musical satirist and writer who also ran for Texas governor, dies at 79

Kinky Friedman, author, singer-songwriter and former Texas gubernatorial candidate, died Thursday after a years-long battle with Parkinson’s disease. Friedman was 79.

“He died peacefully,” close friend Kent Perkins, who knew Friedman for about 50 years, told the Associated Press in confirming the death. He said Friedman died at his family’s ranch near San Antonio.

“He smoked a cigar, went to bed and never woke up,” Perkins said.

Perkins described Friedman as the “last free person on earth” and said he had an “irreverence about him. He was a fearless writer.”

Friedman — born Richard Samet Friedman in Chicago on Nov. 1, 1944 — stirred buzz with his provocative and unapologetic nature, which became widely known when his band, Kinky Friedman and the Texas Jewboys, found success in the 1970s.

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The satirical country band released songs such as “Drop Kick Me, Jesus, Through the Goal Posts of Life,” “Get Your Biscuits in the Oven and Your Buns in the Bed” and “They Ain’t Makin’ Jews Like Jesus Anymore.”

But the band’s brash nature was apparently not well received by some.

“In 1973, the Texas Jewboys received death threats in Nacogdoches, got bomb threats in New York, and required a police escort to escape radical feminists at the University of Buffalo,” the musician wrote in a personal essay for the September 2001 issue of Texas Monthly.

Friedman — who was nicknamed Kinky, or the Kinkster, because of his curly hair — then traveled with Bob Dylan in 1976 as part of the Rolling Thunder Revue tour. By the 1980s, after his band’s success had cooled, Friedman turned to a new venture: writing.

He penned several New York-based crime novels, including “Greenwich Killing Time” and “Roadkill,” that featured himself as a detective. At the time of his death, Friedman had written more than 20 books.

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Joking that he needed “a job right now,” Friedman elevated his profile when he challenged incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry in the 2006 Texas governor’s race, according to the Houston Chronicle.

The race became prickly. Friedman, one of five candidates, was hit with allegations of racism over remarks he made in 1980. He denied the accusations, stating that his style of humor was intended to draw reactions.

Offending people “was the purpose,” Friedman told the Houston Chronicle in 2006. “That’s what I was doing. That’s called social commentary, that’s called satire.”

He ran on a campaign that supported gay marriage (“I think they have every right to be as miserable as the rest of us”) and prayer in school (“What’s wrong with a kid believing in something?”) but ultimately finished in last place. Perry won reelection.

Reflecting on the race four years later, Friedman told The Times that more musicians should get into politics.

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“If the musicians ran the country, we wouldn’t get a hell of a lot done in the morning, but we’d work late and we’d be honest,” he said. “When I’m in a roomful of musicians, those are decent people, good people. You can’t say the same about politicians.”

And he was still proud of his gubernatorial campaign.

“We won that race, by the way,” Friedman said, “every place but Texas.”

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Trump sways independent voters over Biden on immigration in Fox News Digital focus group

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Trump sways independent voters over Biden on immigration in Fox News Digital focus group

Former President Trump appeared to earn significant approval from Republican and independent voters who were part of a Fox News Digital focus group during his response to President Biden’s claims about immigration during the CNN Presidential Debate on Thursday night.

When CNN moderator Jake Tapper asked Biden to inform voters how he can curb the record-high numbers of illegal immigrants crossing the border, the two presidential contenders sparred over their immigration policies, which ended in Biden calling Trump a “liar” and Trump appearing to not understand a portion of Biden’s responses.

After touting Congress’ bipartisan border package that lawmakers bucked earlier this year, Biden said “we find ourselves in a situation where when [Trump] was president, he was separating babies from their mothers, put them in cages, making sure that the families were separated.”

FIRST 2024 TRUMP-BIDEN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE: TOP CLASHES OVER ISSUES FROM THE BORDER TO UKRAINE

Former President Trump appeared to earn significant approval from Republican and independent voters during his response to President Biden’s claims about immigration. (Fox News Digital)

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“That’s not the right way to go. What I’ve done since I’ve changed the law, what’s happened? I’ve changed it in a way that now you’re in a situation where there are 40% fewer people coming across the border illegally. That’s better than when he left office. And I’m going to continue to move until we get the total ban on the total initiative relative to what we can do with more Border Patrol and more asylum officers,” Biden said.

During Biden’s remarks, Republican and independent voters who took part in the Fox News Digital focus group gave the president low approval. When Trump responded, however, the approval from the same voters shot up, indicating support for the former president’s positions on the subject. 

Republican approval lines are color-coded red, while independents’ are color-coded yellow and Democrats’ blue.

BIDEN’S HIT ON TRUMP OVER ‘SUCKERS’ AND ‘LOSERS’ REPORT BACKFIRES WITH INDEPENDENTS: FOCUS GROUP

Donald Trump at CNN presidential debate

Former President Trump speaks during a presidential debate in Atlanta on Thursday. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP)

Trump, appearing to not understand Biden, responded: “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence, I don’t think he knows what he said, either.”

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“Look, we had the safest border in the history of our country,” Trump added. “All he had to do was leave it, all he had to do was to leave it. He decided to open up our border, open up our country, to people that are from prisons, people that are from mental institutions, insane asylum, terrorists — we have the largest number of terrorists coming into our country right now.”

Joe Biden at CNN debate

President Biden stands at his podium during the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle in Atlanta on Thursday. (Kevin D. Liles for The Washington Post)

Approval from Democratic voters who took part in the real-time reaction gave Biden high marks for his remarks on immigration. During Trump’s rebuttal, Democratic approval dropped significantly.

Fox News’ Jamie Joseph contributed to this report.

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