Politics
Spotlighting messaging problem, Democratic strategists urge Biden to ‘sell, sell, sell’
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Query: What’s one factor that former Presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama have in frequent?
Reply: Each of President Biden’s two most quick predecessors within the White Home suffered from damaging ballot numbers on the eve of their first midterm elections in workplace and each noticed their celebration lose management of the Home of Representatives.
In November 2010, Obama’s approval ranking was underwater by 4 factors because the Republicans rode a robust Tea Celebration fueled purple wave to flip the Home with an enormous 63-seat web achieve, the biggest shift of seats in additional than 60 years.
WITH 7 MONTHS TO GO, GOP HAS UPPER HAND IN MIDTERM ELECTIONS: POLLS
Quick-forward eight years and Trump’s approval ranking was underwater by practically 10 factors on the eve of the 2018 midterms, when the Democrats stormed again to reclaim the Home majority because of a 41-seat pickup.
Quick-forward once more 4 years to current day and Biden finds himself in comparable damaging territory.
The president stands at 45% approval and 54% disapproval within the newest Fox Information nationwide ballot, and common all the newest surveys gauging Biden’s standing that was compiled by Actual Clear Politics places him at 41%-53%.
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Midterm elections are sometimes a referendum on the president and his document in workplace, and the presidential approval ranking has lengthy been a key barometer forward of midterm contests. And that spells hassle for Democrats, who’re attempting to defend their razor-thin majorities within the Home and Senate in November’s elections.
With simply over seven months to go till Individuals vote, Fox Information reached out to some Democratic strategists and consultants for his or her recommendation on how the president can pump up his numbers to assist his celebration on the poll field.
Longtime Democratic advisor Invoice Burton pinpointed a messaging drawback for the president, telling Fox Information that “President Biden has been a transformative chief at an important time for our nation and nearly no Individuals realize it.”
“Getting the phrase on the market about what the president did to raise up the financial system and get our nation out of the depths of the coronavirus pandemic is absolutely necessary,” Burton, a veteran of Obama’s 2008 presidential marketing campaign and the Obama White Home, emphasised.
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Democratic strategist Chris Moyer informed Fox Information that Biden “ought to get out to locations with crucial races and promote, promote, promote.”
The variety of Individuals submitting jobless claims plunged final week to their lowest ranges in additional than half a century, and wages are hovering. However the extraordinarily constructive financial metrics are being vastly overshadowed by skyrocketing inflation, together with traditionally excessive fuel costs.
Moyer, a veteran of quite a few Democratic presidential and statewide campaigns, emphasised that “the president ought to do all the things he can to deliver fuel costs down, which may embrace a federal fuel tax vacation.”
Longtime Democratic advisor Jesse Ferguson supplied that “there’s clear proof that the financial system’s getting again up off the mat and Democrats need to be relentless in telling that story. When folks can get jobs if they need and receives a commission extra in the event that they work, it is clear we are able to inform the story of an financial system that is not but fastened, however not floundering.”
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“As a lot as folks really feel very actual nervousness, they need to see that Democrats are stabilizing issues whereas Republicans would make the worst fears of this nervousness come true,” Ferguson, who served a number of excursions of responsibility on the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee, emphasised. “Democrats cannot promise lullabies, however simply present that individuals can get a very good evening’s sleep once more whereas Republicans would deliver all their nightmares to life.”
Biden’s approval ranking hovered within the low to mid 50s throughout his first six months within the White Home. However the president’s numbers began sagging in August in the wake of Biden’s a lot criticized dealing with of the turbulent U.S. exit from Afghanistan and following a surge in COVID-19 instances final summer season amongst primarily unvaccinated folks as a result of Delta variant.
2021: THE YEAR THAT BIDEN’S APPROVAL RATINGS SLOWLY SANK UNDERWATER
The plunge within the president’s approval, which continued final autumn and into the winter, was additionally closely fueled by the leap in client costs and to a lesser diploma the surge over the previous 12 months of migrants attempting to cross into the U.S. alongside the southern border with Mexico.
There’s continued trigger for concern when you get previous the highest strains within the surveys. Biden’s approval on most main points – together with the financial system – are additionally properly underwater, and he’s seen deterioration with key voting blocs that helped to place him within the White Home within the 2020 election.
“Who is aware of what the world seems like come the autumn, however we should always anticipate the financial system and getting inflation underneath management will nonetheless be prime of thoughts for voters,” Lucas Meyer, a New Hampshire primarily based Democratic advisor and activist, famous.
CHECK OUT THE LATEST FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS IN THE 2022 MIDTERMS
Meyer urged spotlighting a brand new proposal by the president that was unveiled Monday within the administration’s 2023 finances blueprint to tax America’s billionaires, saying “it may possibly assist the Democrats get on the offensive to handle each points.”
“This could solely apply to a small fraction of individuals whose family wealth exceeds $100 million, and many of the income would come from Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg. That is fully a commonsense and very talked-about proposal that merely asks the super-wealthy – whose wealth has ballooned in the course of the pandemic thoughts you – to pay a tax charge nearer to what firefighters, academics, nurses, and small enterprise house owners pay,” Meyer famous.
California primarily based progressive advisor Michael Cesaro pointed to Biden’s March 1 State of the Union Deal with – which was dominated by Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine – and frightened that “Democrats are in hassle of the State of the Union is a prelude to what we as Democrats are going to deal with.”
Cesaro, a veteran of the 2008 Obama marketing campaign, Sen. Bernie Sanders 2016 presidential run, and now-Transportation Secy. Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 White Home bid, urged that the president “kick off the election season by bringing non legacy organizations collectively that concentrate on legal justice, voter rights, schooling, well being care and reproductive justice. And ask them what he can do for them.”
And he urged Biden to “cease pandering to contained in the beltway organizations who’ve little affect in electoral politics and for the love of god, again slowly away from the White male rural solely technique or else we’re going to lose in 2022 and 2024.”
However Cesaro additionally emphasised that the president can’t fumble the ball abroad.”
Longtime Iowa primarily based Democratic and communications advisor Jeff Hyperlink additionally pointed to Russian chief Vladimir Putin’s lethal assault on Ukraine, urging that Biden “hold the allied forces robust in opposition to Putin.”
Hyperlink, a veteran of quite a few presidential and statewide campaigns, additionally urged the president to “get infrastructure cash out the door shortly.”
Politics
Political betting markets still have plenty of action despite end of election season
The end of the election season does not mean the end of political betting, with many platforms allowing users to place wagers on everything from the 2028 election to who will be confirmed to President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet.
“Some people will be amazed by this, but people are already betting on 2026 and 2028,” Maxim Lott, the founder of ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital. “There’s been about a quarter million dollars bet already.”
The comments come after the 2024 election produced plenty of betting action, with users across multiple platforms wagering over $2 billion on the outcome of the latest race.
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While mega sporting events, such as the Super Bowl and the recent Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight, gives gamblers plenty to wager on after the election, those looking for something political to bet on will still have plenty of options.
One of the most popular topics is who will be the nominees for both major parties in 2028, with ElectionBettingOdds.com showing California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President-elect JD Vance being the current leaders for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
Other names with a significant amount of attention for betters include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for the Democratic nomination, while Vance is trailed by names like entrepreneur and future head of the new Department of Government Efficiency Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump Jr. on the Republican side.
“The big Democratic governors are favored to be the next nominee,” Lott said, noting that Vance currently holds a sizable lead over other options on the GOP side.
TRUMP OPENS UP LARGEST BETTING LEAD SINCE DAYS AFTER BIDEN’S DROPOUT
Vance is also the current betting leader on who will win the 2028 presidential election, ElectionBettingOdds.com shows, followed by Newson and Shapiro as the next two likely options.
However, Lott warned it is still too early to tell what the future holds, noting that the markets will start to provide more clarity as more information becomes known over the next few years.
“As the future becomes clearer… as we get closer to 2026, 2028, these odds will change,” Lott said. “So if the Trump administration is doing really well, the economy is booming, inflation is not out of control, wars are ending, Vance’s odds will certainly go up.”
Bettors also are not limited to wagering on elections, with platforms such as Polymarket allowing users to place bets on Trump’s picks to serve in his Cabinet and whether they will be confirmed. Bettors can also place wagers on questions such as if they believe the war in Ukraine will end in Trump’s first 90 days or if there will be a cease-fire in Gaza in 2024.
According to Lott, taking a look at the current betting odds for many scenarios can help inform you about what is going on in the world, even if you do not place bets yourself.
“People often ask… is there any value to this… it’s just gambling. It’s silly,” Lott said. “But actually it’s very useful… if you want to know what’s going to happen in 2028 or if the Trump administration is going to be a success, you could read 100 news articles on it. Some will misinform you. Or, you can just go to the prediction markets and see… is Vance a 20% chance of becoming the next Republican nominee or is he a 90% chance? That tells you a lot.”
Politics
As Trump’s lead in popular vote shrinks, does he really have a 'mandate'?
In his victory speech on Nov. 6, President-elect Donald Trump claimed Americans had given him an “unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
It’s a message his transition team has echoed in the last three weeks, referring to his “MAGA Mandate” and a “historic mandate for his agenda.”
But given that Trump’s lead in the popular vote has dwindled as more votes have been counted in California and other states that lean blue, there is fierce disagreement over whether most Americans really endorse his plans to overhaul government and implement sweeping change.
The latest tally from the Cook Political Report shows Trump winning 49.83% of the popular vote, with a margin of 1.55% over Vice President Kamala Harris.
If there ever was a mandate, this isn’t it.
— Hans Noel, Georgetown University
The president-elect’s share of the popular vote now falls in the bottom half for American presidents — far below that of Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson, who won 61.1% of the popular vote in 1964, defeating Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater by nearly 23 percentage points.
In the last 75 years, only three presidents — John F. Kennedy in 1960, Richard Nixon in 1968 and George W. Bush in 2000 — had popular-vote margins smaller than Trump’s current lead.
“If there ever was a mandate, this isn’t it,” said Hans Noel, associate professor of government at Georgetown University.
Trump’s commanding electoral college victory of 312 votes to Harris’ 226 is clear. And unlike in 2016, when he beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, he won the popular vote and the needed support in the electoral college.
The question is whether Trump can garner significant public support to push through his more contentious administration picks and the most radical elements of his policy agenda, such as bringing in the military to enforce mass deportations.
Democrats say that the results fall short of demonstrating majority public support for Trump and that the numbers do not give him a mandate to deviate from precedent, such as naming Cabinet members without Senate confirmation.
“There’s no mandate here,” Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) said last week on CNN, noting Trump had suggested using “recess appointments” to get around Senate hearings and votes for his nominees. “What there certainly should not be is a blank check to appoint a chaos Cabinet.”
GOP strategist Lanhee Chen, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution who ran for California controller in 2022, rejects such framing by Democrats. He argues that Trump’s victory was “quite resounding,” in large part because it defied expectations.
In an election that almost all political pundits expected would be close and protracted, he reversed Democrats’ 2020 gains, won all seven battleground states and even made inroads with voters in blue states such as California. Republicans also will take control of the Senate and retain their control of the House.
“Look, if the popular vote ends up having him at 49.6% versus 50.1%, do I think it’s a meaningful difference?” Chen said. “No, I don’t.”
Scholars of American politics have long been skeptical of the idea of a presidential mandate.
The first president to articulate such a concept was Andrew Jackson, the nation’s seventh president, who viewed his 1832 reelection — in which he won 54.2% of the popular vote — as a mandate to destroy the Second Bank of the United States and expand his political authority. In arguing he had the mandate of the people, Jackson deviated from the approach of previous presidents in refusing to defer to Congress on policy.
In “Myth of the Presidential Mandate,” Robert A. Dahl, a professor of political science at Yale University, argued the presidential mandate was “harmful to American public life” because it “elevates the president to an exalted position in our constitutional system at the expense of Congress.”
Even if we accept the premise of a mandate, there is little consensus on when a candidate has achieved it.
“How do we know what voters were thinking as they cast ballots?” Julia R. Azari, an assistant professor of political science at Marquette University, wrote in a recent essay. “Are some elections mandates and others not? If so, how do we know? What’s the popular vote cutoff — is it a majority or more? Who decides?”
In “Delivering the People’s Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate,” she argues that it’s politicians in weak positions who typically invoke mandates. This century, she wrote, presidents have cited mandates with increasing frequency as a result of the declining status of the presidency and growing national polarization.
That’s particularly true of Trump, who has long reveled in hyperbole.
In 2016, he bragged that he’d won in a “massive landslide victory,” even though his electoral college win of 304 to Clinton’s 227 was not particularly dramatic by historic standards and he lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points.
Four years later, he refused to accept he lost the electoral college and the popular vote to Joe Biden, falsely claiming he was the victim of voter fraud.
When Trump speaks of his supposed mandate, he is not an outlier, but is drawing from bipartisan history.
In the last four decades, no president has won the popular vote by double digits, but politicians including George W. Bush and Barack Obama have increasingly tried to justify their agendas by invoking public support.
When Democrat Bill Clinton defeated Republican President George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot, an independent, in 1992, his failure to win a majority of votes did not stop his running mate, Al Gore, from declaring they had a “mandate for change.” Five days after Clinton was inaugurated, he announced he was creating a task force to devise a sweeping plan to provide universal healthcare.
“In my lifetime, at least,” Clinton told reporters, “there has never been so much consensus that something has to be done.” The effort ultimately failed for lack of political support.
The fake news is trying to minimize President Trump’s massive and historic victory to try to delegitimize his mandate.
— Karoline Leavitt, incoming White House press secretary
Four years ago, Biden also declared a “mandate for action.”
And while Biden prevailed in the electoral college 306 to 232, his share of the popular vote was 51.3%, hardly a dominant performance.
As mainstream news outlets have reported on Trump’s shrinking popular margin, Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s incoming White House press secretary, has lashed out at the media.
“New Fake News Narrative Alert!” Leavitt posted on X, adding a red warning light emoji. “The fake news is trying to minimize President Trump’s massive and historic victory to try to delegitimize his mandate.”
Trump’s victory is not by any objective measure “massive or historic.” But Republicans say that news outlets have subjected him to a different standard than they apply to Democratic presidents.
After Clinton won in 1992 after 12 years of GOP presidents, some Republicans note, Time magazine put his face on its cover with the headline “Mandate for Change.”
Clinton won just 43% of the popular vote, one of the lowest shares in U.S. history.
Presidents sometimes bolster their claims of a mandate by cherry-picking polling results.
On Sunday, Trump’s transition team highlighted new polling from CBS News, claiming it showed “overwhelming support” for his “transition and agenda.”
But even though the poll indicated that 59% of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the presidential transition, it did not show overwhelming or even majority support for many parts of his agenda.
For example, while Trump won strong backing for his broad immigration plan, with 57% supporting a “national program to find and deport all immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally,” the poll showed far less support — 40% — for his plan to use the military to carry out deportations.
Whatever the popular vote, the Hoover Institution’s Chen argues, Trump is in a strong position because he can count on GOP majorities in both houses of Congress.
“He’s going to be able to do, from a legislative perspective, largely what he wants to do,” Chen said.
But several GOP senators have already emphasized the importance of requiring FBI background checks for Trump’s more contentious nominees.
It also appears he lacks public support for pushing through his picks without Senate approval. More than three-quarters of respondents, according to the CBS poll, believe the Senate should vote on Trump’s appointments.
Noel, the Georgetown professor, said that Trump’s rhetorical strategy aside, the president-elect might have to move past the “‘I won, so everybody get out of my way’ kind of politics” and work behind the scenes to seek common ground with moderate Republicans and maybe even some Democrats.
“In the past, people have made strong claims about mandates, but then they’ve coupled that with more cautious policymaking,” Noel said. “If Trump doesn’t do that — if he acts like he believes his own story — then we’re in a different, more Trumpian kind of place.”
Politics
Texas could bus migrants directly to ICE for deportation instead of sanctuary cities under proposed plan
Texas could implement a plan to bus migrants directly to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in an effort to get them processed for deportation, according to media reports.
The move would be a departure from the state’s program, part of Operation Lone Star, that has bussed thousands of migrants to sanctuary cities, a source told the New York Post. It has yet to be approved by Gov. Greg Abbott.
Fox News Digital has reached out to Abbott’s office and ICE.
“We are always going to be involved in border security so long as we’re a border state,” a Texas government source told the newspaper. “We spent a lot of taxpayer money to have the level of deterrent that we have on the border, and we can’t just walk away.”
TRUMP SAYS MEXICO WILL STOP FLOW OF MIGRANTS AFTER SPEAKING WITH MEXICAN PRESIDENT FOLLOWING TARIFF THREATS
Abbott has been especially aggressive in combating illegal immigration, bussing migrants to blue cities in an effort to bring attention to the border crisis. Under the proposed plan, buses chartered by Texas from border cities will be taken to federal detention centers to help ICE agents process migrants quickly, the Post reported.
Texas has been in a legal fight with the Biden administration over its efforts to curb illegal immigration. On Wednesday, an appeals court ruled that the state has the right to build a razor wire border wall to deter migrants.
Officials have also offered land to the incoming Trump administration to build deportation centers to hold illegal immigrant criminals.
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“My office has identified several of our properties and is standing by ready to make this happen on Day One of the Trump presidency,” Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham said during a visit to the border Tuesday.
Authorities have also warned of unaccompanied migrant children being caught near the border. On Thursday, a 10-year-old boy from El Salvador told state troopers in Maverick County, Texas, that he had been lost and left behind by a human smuggler.
The boy was holding a cellphone and crying, Texas Department of Public Safety Lt. Chris Olivarez posted on X. The child said his parents were in the U.S.
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On Sunday, troopers encountered an unaccompanied 2-year-old girl from El Salvador holding a piece of paper with a phone number and her name. She told authorities that her parents were also in the U.S.
That morning, state troopers also encountered a group of 211 illegal immigrants in Maverick County. Among the group were 60 unaccompanied children, ages 2 to 17, and six special interest immigrants from Mali and Angola.
“Regardless of political views, it is unacceptable for any child to be exposed to dangerous criminal trafficking networks,” Olivarez wrote at the time. “With a record number of unaccompanied children and hundreds of thousands missing, there is no one ensuring the safety & security of these children except for the men & women who are on the frontlines daily.”
He noted that the “reality is that many children are exploited & trafficked, never to be heard from again.”
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