Politics
How an expensive bet by Emily's List in an Orange County congressional race went awry
For Emily’s List, the Democratic political group that has helped elect hundreds of women who support abortion rights, backing Joanna Weiss just made sense.
Weiss, a first-time candidate for Congress in a competitive Orange County district, had founded a Democratic advocacy group and was proving to be a formidable fundraiser.
But the sheer amount of money that Emily’s List spent in support of Weiss raised eyebrows. During a single week in the congressional primary, the group’s independent expenditure arm spent more than $813,000 on television and online ads for Weiss. She is the only candidate that the super PAC has backed this year.
Weiss finished third in the 47th District primary, behind Democratic state Sen. Dave Min and Republican Scott Baugh. The losing bet by Emily’s List in Orange County left Democrats scratching their heads.
“I had just assumed that they were smarter with their donor dollars,” said Mari Fujii, the first vice chair of membership for the Democrats of Greater Irvine.
The group’s super PAC, called Women Vote, typically saves the bulk of its war chest for the November ballot. But the group has also frequently waded into early primary races, often in districts without an incumbent candidate.
When a record number of American women ran for office in 2018, Women Vote backed candidates in a dozen House primaries, including two in Southern California. Women Vote also spent in several House primaries in 2022, including a border district in Texas where the group tried to oust Rep. Henry Cuellar, the last antiabortion Democrat in the House. Challenger Jessica Cisneros lost by 281 votes.
Emily’s List said its work to support women running for office extends beyond independent expenditures to recruitment, campaign advice and fundraising help, including bundling contributions and introducing candidates to major donors. Spokeswoman Christina Reynolds said the organization does “not comment on strategic decisions about specific races.”
The super PAC reported having $1.5 million on hand at the end of March, raising questions about the group’s ability to influence November races in media markets where an effective outside expenditure campaign can top $1 million.
The 47th District is one of the hottest races in the country, pivotal to both Democrats and Republicans fighting for control of Congress. The coastal district, which runs from Seal Beach to Laguna Beach and inland to Costa Mesa and Irvine, is represented by Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), who is leaving Congress in January.
Porter’s decision to give up her House seat and run for the Senate, a bid that fell short in the March 5 primary, kicked off a flurry of campaigns to replace her in Washington.
Before Weiss announced her candidacy, Emily’s List approached her to ask if she was interested in running, said Mike McLaughlin, a senior advisor to the Weiss campaign.
Former Rep. Harley Rouda and Min had both announced they would run, and Emily’s List was “very invested in trying to keep a women in that seat,” McLaughlin said. By then, Weiss had already decided she would run, he said.
Emily’s List did not promise to fund Weiss’ campaign, McLaughlin said. But, he said, the group signaled that it would watch to see if Weiss merited an endorsement, and if she had the kind of fundraising chops needed to win in a battleground House district.
Then the already competitive race took several unexpected turns.
Rouda suffered a brain injury after a fall and dropped out of the race last April. In May, Min was arrested for driving under the influence in Sacramento and pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor.
In June, Emily’s List endorsed Weiss, saying that her history as “a community organizer, lawyer, and advocate for women is unparalleled.”
By election day, Weiss had raised more than $2 million from individual contributions — more than any other non-incumbent woman running for Congress in the U.S., McLaughlin said. (That figure does not include the $225,000 Weiss loaned her campaign.)
“That is what led Emily’s List to then decide to make an investment,” McLaughlin said. “It was a competitive race, and she was doing her part to build a broad coalition of support.”
The main political committee controlled by Emily’s List has given to dozens of candidates across the country, but in far smaller amounts. Federal law restricts such committees from giving big amounts directly to candidates. Independent expenditure committees — including the Emily’s List super PAC, Women Vote — can receive and spend an unlimited amount, however.
Women Vote began buying ads for Weiss on Jan. 30, spending more than $827,000 in a week on television ads and mailers, federal records show.
“If you’re going to spend that kind of money, you’d expect to see it spent over a longer amount of time and it would be targeted better,” said Jon Gould, the dean of the School of Social Ecology at UC Irvine. “It had the feel that someone suddenly committed a lot of money at the last minute.”
The board of the Irvine Democrats, which backed Min, took the unusual step of writing to the president of Emily’s List, chiding the group for investing so heavily in Weiss. Their letter spelled out what the group saw as Weiss’ biggest problems, including her lack of experience as a candidate and her decision to send her children to private schools outside the district.
“Backing the flawed campaign of Ms. Weiss will harm the chances of electing a Democratic House majority in 2024,” the group wrote. They suggested that Emily’s List redirect the money to two other races in Orange County with strong Democratic women candidates.
This year is not the first time Min has been at odds with Emily’s List.
During the bruising 2018 primary for California’s 45th Congressional District, Min ran against Porter in a crowded field to unseat then-Rep. Mimi Walters, a Republican.
After Emily’s List endorsed Porter, the group’s super PAC spent more than $241,000 on ads and mailers to support her.
Min’s campaign then released an ad suggesting Porter, Walters and another candidate were being funded by “special interests.” In a voice-over, a narrator said: “Washington insiders have spent over $100,000 to elect Katie Porter.”
In a terse statement, the then-president of Emily’s List dismissed Min’s ad as “dishonest.”
“In a year where we’re seeing a record number of women step up and run for office, it’s unfortunate that there are those who are trying to diminish our success,” Stephanie Schriock said. She called Min’s comments “disparaging” to more than 5 million supporters of Emily’s List, including many who lived in his district.
The 47th District wasn’t the only race in California where choices by Emily’s List rankled Democratic leaders. One Democratic consultant, who requested anonymity to speak frankly about an organization that works closely with Democratic campaigns, said the group has made “many weird decisions in California this year.”
State Sen. Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger) told The Times that the group had contacted her about running in the Central Valley’s 22nd Congressional District, hoping oust incumbent GOP Rep. David Valadao of Hanford. But Rudy Salas, a Democrat and a former member of the state Assembly, already had the backing of Washington’s Democratic leadership. Hurtado said she had weekly meetings with Emily’s List until it became clear the organization was not going to support her financially. She finished in a distant fourth place in the primary.
Emily’s List did not endorse a candidate in the 45th Congressional District in inland Orange County, represented by GOP Rep. Michelle Steele. Democrat Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, a Garden Grove councilmember and the daughter of Mexican and Vietnamese immigrants, finished third in the primary, losing by 367 votes to Democrat Derek Tran.
In the 40th Congressional District, an inland suburban district mostly in Orange County, Emily’s List endorsed Allyson Muñiz Damikolas in her bid to unseat GOP Rep. Young Kim. The endorsement helped Damikolas bring in more money, but the group did not spend a significant amount to help her. She finished a distant third behind Kim and Democrat Joe Kerr, a retired firefighter.
The results of both those races, Gould said, suggest that Emily’s List “probably made the right call.”
The Biden administration declassified one last piece of information about how it has helped Ukraine: an account of its once-secret support for the country’s military drone industry.
U.S. officials said on Thursday that they had made big investments that helped Ukraine start and expand its production of drones as it battled Russia’s larger and better-equipped army.
Much of the U.S. assistance to the Ukrainian military, including billions of dollars in missiles, air defense systems, tanks, artillery and training, has been announced to the public. But other support has largely gone on in the shadows.
That included helping Ukraine develop a new generation of drones and revolutionize how wars are fought, according to U.S. officials.
The innovations in Ukraine’s drone industry have been hailed as transformative, but the U.S. support has been less well understood. In addition to technical support, the U.S. has spent significant money, including $1.5 billion sent last September, to boost Ukraine’s drone production, officials said.
Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, said the support had “a real strategic impact” on the war.
“We saw how UAVs were becoming increasingly central to the fight in Ukraine and will be central to all future fights,” Mr. Sullivan said in a statement on Thursday, referring to unmanned aerial vehicles.
The U.S. effort included money to support drone makers and to purchase parts. The United States also sent intelligence officials to Ukraine to help build its program, according to people who know about the effort.
In an interview this week, the C.I.A. director, William J. Burns, referred indirectly to his agency’s support for the drone program in Ukraine.
“I think our intelligence support has helped the Ukrainians to defend themselves,” Mr. Burns said. “Not just in the sharing of intelligence, but support for some of the systems that have been so effective.”
The White House declassified information about Russia’s plans to attack Ukraine ahead of the invasion. During the war, officials have regularly declassified information about Iranian and North Korean arms shipments to Russia.
Mr. Sullivan said the drone effort began after the Ukrainians’ first counteroffensive in the fall of 2022 as the limits of Ukraine’s conventional capabilities became clear.
The efforts accelerated, Mr. Sullivan said, in the preparation for Ukraine’s second counteroffensive. That push, in 2023, was ultimately less successful. Ukraine did not gain as much ground as it had wanted, in part because of Russia’s use of drones.
That 2023 counteroffensive was a hard lesson, U.S. officials said. Russian drones attacked U.S.- and European-provided tanks and armored vehicles as they tried to navigate minefields.
After the counteroffensive, U.S. officials said they rapidly increased support to Ukrainian drone makers, building on Kyiv’s efforts to grow its own industry. In addition to financial aid, the Biden administration worked to build ties between American technology companies and Ukrainian drone makers.
Last fall, the Pentagon allocated $800 million to Ukraine’s drone production, which was used to purchase drone components and finance drone makers. When President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine visited the White House in September, President Biden said another $1.5 billion would be directed to Ukraine’s drone industry.
American officials said on Thursday that they believe the investments have made Ukraine’s drones more effective and deadly. They noted that Ukraine’s sea drones had destroyed a quarter of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, and that drones deployed on the front lines had helped slow Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine.
Mr. Sullivan said the drive to build Ukraine’s drone industry had provided “invaluable lessons” that the Biden administration had started to integrate into America’s own defense industry.
Politics
DeSantis' chosen Rubio replacement Moody wants to tackle inflation, spending, border: 'Audit the Fed!'
Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody, who is slated to become a U.S. senator, is calling for an audit of the Federal Reserve, pledging to vocally oppose government spending, and declaring that she will fight to bolster the border and remove individuals who enter the U.S. illegally.
With Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., poised to soon leave office to serve as Secretary of State in the new Trump administration, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Moody as his pick to replace Rubio in the U.S. Senate.
And with even some Democrats planning to support confirmation, Rubio is likely to sail through the confirmation vote.
“Here’s a priority of mine in the Senate: our inflation has been fueled by the Federal Reserve. We must audit the Fed!” Moody declared in a post on X.
DESANTIS ANNOUNCES CHOICE FOR SENATE APPOINTMENT AFTER RUBIO’S EXPECTED RESIGNATION
“As Florida’s next U.S. Senator, I will work tirelessly to reduce the bloat of Washington and speak out loudly against government spending,” she noted in another post. “Like we’ve done in Florida, this country needs to cut spending and get fiscally responsible. I look forward to working with DOGE, and I will work hard to leave the next generation of our country on a much stronger financial footing.”
When discussing her role in confirming judges and justices, she specifically mentioned Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito.
“As a former judge, I will take my role confirming judges and justices seriously to ensure that, like Justices Thomas and Alito, they share the values and concepts of law as our Founding Fathers understood them,” she said in a tweet. “I will work through the Senate confirmation process to ensure those who get confirmed are strong nominees and know that it is their duty to interpret the Constitution as it is written.”
WHO IS ASHLEY MOODY? MEET THE SENATE’S NEWEST MEMBER FROM FLORIDA
Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody responds to cheering supporters after Gov. Ron DeSantis, left, announced her appointment as U.S. senator to replace Marco Rubio, during a news conference at the Rosen Plaza Hotel in Orlando, Fla., on Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
Sharing Moody’s post, DeSantis called Alito and Thomas “the gold standard.”
“In the U.S. Senate, I will support President @realDonaldTrump and fight for legislation that strengthens the border, builds the wall, and removes those who entered unlawfully,” Moody noted in a tweet.
DESANTIS TOUTS FLORIDA’S ‘FUTURE WAY OF THINKING,’ VOWS STATE WILL ‘DO OUR DUTY’ TO HELP INCOMING TRUMP ADMIN
DeSantis responded, declaring, “Make Illegal Immigration Illegal Again.”
WASHINGTON — A historic uptick in migration during Joe Biden’s presidency led to attacks as he ran for reelection, with Donald Trump and fellow Republicans blaming Democrats for the swelling number of people crossing the U.S.-Mexico border.
Now, after campaigning on promises to secure the border and deport undocumented immigrants, President-elect Trump is poised to take office Monday amid a steep drop in border crossings.
Here are five key facts about migration across the U.S.-Mexico border over the last several years.
1. Arrivals at the border are the lowest they’ve been since Trump left office
When Trump left office in January 2021, people were stopped at the southern border more than 78,000 times that month, according to figures from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection. That’s compared with roughly 96,000 stops last month. The highest monthly total during the Biden administration was nearly 302,000 in December 2023, and Trump’s highest total was just over 144,000 in May 2019.
These figures include arrivals at land ports of entry, where asylum seekers wait for appointments to enter legally, as well as those caught crossing illegally elsewhere along the border. Figures from November and December showed, for the first time, more migrants being processed through ports of entry than those who were arrested after entering the U.S. illegally.
In June, the Biden administration began effectively blocking migrants from seeking asylum along the U.S. border with Mexico. The restrictions don’t apply to those who enter at official ports of entry or use other legal means.
For parts of last year, San Diego became the top destination for illegal crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border for the first time in decades. The change reflects how smuggling routes, which used to be consistent for many years, have begun to shift every few months since 2021. That’s in part because of the post-pandemic increase in global migration to the U.S.
The San Diego region saw 10,117 border arrests in December — the second-highest after the Rio Grande Valley in Texas — though that’s down by 70% from a year earlier.
2. There hasn’t been much of an increase in border arrivals ahead of Trump’s inauguration
In the weeks leading up to Trump’s inauguration, most regions across the border have seen little change in arrivals of migrants. But Chief Border Patrol Agent Gloria Chavez of the Rio Grande Valley Sector in south Texas, who posts local arrest numbers on social media every week, reported 1,206 migrant stops over the final weekend of December, and 1,276 the weekend before. That’s double the number in recent weeks of fewer than 600 arrests.
“It is the first quantitative indicator of an increase in migration since the U.S. election, which raised expectations — so far unmet — that many migrants might rush to enter the United States before Election Day,” Adam Isacson, director of defense oversight at the advocacy organization the Washington Office on Latin America, wrote in a recent newsletter.
That trend appeared to have waned in the new year, with Chavez reporting 669 arrests the weekend that ended Jan. 5 and 699 arrests the weekend that ended Jan. 12.
Isacson noted that in 2016, asylum seekers rushed to enter the U.S. before Trump began his first term. But border policies are different now, with Biden administration rules already preventing most people who enter illegally from qualifying for asylum.
“Their only hope is to not be apprehended,” he said. “Some people might be trying, and if they’re successful they won’t show up in the numbers.”
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a senior fellow with the left-leaning American Immigration Council, said tens of thousands of migrants are waiting in Mexico.
“Today it is harder for migrants to make it to the border and seek asylum than at any point in modern U.S. history,” he said. “Despite this massively increased infrastructure at the border, the U.S. continues to remain, in the eyes of people around the world, a place of safety and security.”
3. The U.S. border used to draw mostly Mexican and Central American migrants. Now people from all over the world flock here
The U.S. has historically drawn migrants from its southern neighbor. Although Mexicans still make up the highest proportion of those seeking entry, arrivals of people from other countries have shot up over time. During Trump’s first term, people from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador flocked to the U.S. border due to instability in their home countries.
That started to change around 2019. Throughout Biden’s presidency, greater numbers of people began to arrive from Venezuela, Cuba and Colombia. People also came from farther away — Afghanistan, Ukraine and China.
The San Diego region has what is considered the most international border, drawing people from all over the world.
Chinese migrants in search of jobs and freedom from the repressive government there started arriving in record numbers — increasing from just 949 arrests in fiscal year 2022 to more than 37,000 last fiscal year. Republicans seized on the increase, painting it as a national security issue.
Numbers began to decrease last year after the Biden administration imposed asylum restrictions and Ecuador began requiring Chinese nationals to have a visa to fly there.
4. Immigrant detention has ramped back up since COVID-19 decreases
The government’s operation for detaining people who violate immigration laws has seen wild swings in recent years. During Trump’s first term, the population detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement reached historic highs of more than 55,000 people.
As COVID-19 spread through lockups, killing detainees, courts ordered some immigrant detention centers to reduce their populations. The detention population reached a low of about 13,000 people in February 2021, the month after Biden took office. (The Adelanto ICE Detention Facility east of Los Angeles has remained under a COVID-era court order that prevented new detainees, dwindling the population of the nearly 2,000-bed facility to just two people.)
As of Dec. 29, more than 39,000 people (most of whom have no criminal record) are being held in civil immigrant detention facilities, according to TRAC, a nonpartisan data research organization. That number has remained fairly steady for the last year, generally fluctuating between 35,000 and just under 40,000 since late 2023.
Numbers are widely expected to increase again after Trump takes office, as he works to make good on his promise of mass deportations.
5. Historic arrivals under the Biden administration added to the already enormous backlog in immigration court
Immigrants placed in deportation proceedings can plead their case before an immigration judge. With historic arrivals of migrants under the Biden administration, the immigration court backlog now has more than 3.7 million pending cases, according to TRAC.
Biden inherited an already backlogged immigration court system with 1.3 million cases. When Trump assumed office in 2017, just over 542,000 cases were pending.
In fiscal year 2024, immigration courts closed more than 900,000 cases — the most of any single year. New cases have fallen sharply as fewer immigrants are processed at the border.
Los Angeles County has nearly 115,000 cases, the second-highest after Miami-Dade County. Experts say the backlog can’t be eliminated without funding hundreds more immigration judges and support staff, as well as systemic reforms.
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