Connect with us

Politics

Fox News Power Rankings: Five themes emerge in the battle for the House gavel

Published

on

Fox News Power Rankings: Five themes emerge in the battle for the House gavel

Join Fox News for access to this content

You have reached your maximum number of articles. Log in or create an account FREE of charge to continue reading.

By entering your email and pushing continue, you are agreeing to Fox News’ Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, which includes our Notice of Financial Incentive.

Please enter a valid email address.

Having trouble? Click here.

Republicans have more districts in their corner in the first Fox News Power Rankings House forecast, but overall, the race for a majority is a toss-up.

Fox News Power Rankings projected control of the house map (Fox News)

Advertisement

Two dramatic years in the House haven’t changed voters’ top concerns

Political junkies will tell you that it has been a chaotic couple of years in the House. 

With speaker battles, a debt ceiling crisis, the sixth-ever expulsion of a House lawmaker and the first ever shrinking of the “Squad,” there has been plenty to talk about on television and social media.

At the same time, Americans continue to hold congress in low regard, with only 16% saying they approved of its job in July. (It has been two decades since congress had an approval rating of over 50%).

These might seem like vulnerabilities for the ruling party, but when it comes to their congressional ballot, Americans are putting drama and dissatisfaction aside.

Advertisement

The top issues in the race continue to be the economy, immigration and abortion, and voters are locked in to their preferred party for each of them.

The top three issues in battleground states. (Fox News Power Rankings)

FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: VOTERS’ APPETITE FOR TICKET-SPLITTING WILL DECIDE THE SENATE

Because of that, you can expect similar electoral dynamics in the House as in the Senate. A win for former President Trump will help the GOP stay in power in the lower chamber, as we saw in 2016. A win for Vice President Kamala Harris will likely give the Democrats a win in the House too, as President Biden was able to deliver in 2020.

Fox News Power Rankings final house count prediction. (Fox News)

Advertisement

In the meantime, the race to rule the House starts off as a toss-up.

Five themes across dozens of competitive districts

House forecast themes (Fox News Power Rankings)

Every House seat is up for election every two years, but only a fraction are competitive. In this forecast, 16% of the 435 districts are firmly in play.

There are 19 toss-up races, and with Republicans enjoying a razor-thin majority in the House today, the results in those districts alone will decide which party gets the gavel.

Advertisement

Many of the highly competitive races share key features.

Redistricting

The redistricting process occurs at the beginning of each decade, but a mountain of litigation over racial or partisan gerrymandering issues has left some states redrawing boundaries as recently as May.

The upshot is that several seats are likely to change hands early on election night.

Alabama and Louisiana each have redrawn seats with higher Black voter populations after court rulings. Both seats are represented by vacating Republicans and are Democrats’ best flip opportunities of the night. 

Advertisement

Meanwhile, a state Republican supermajority approved a more favorable map in North Carolina. Three seats currently represented by Democrats will now be open in November, and Republicans are favored in all of them.

Fox News Power Rankings races that lean Democrat. (Fox News)

Redistricting will also affect a highly competitive race in New York.

A district containing Syracuse that currently belongs to Rep. Brandon Williams will shift leftward this year, putting the first-term congressman in a much tougher fight to hold on for a second. New York’s 22nd district is rated Lean D.

Candidate quality

Advertisement

One of the reasons Republicans underperformed expectations in the midterms was candidate quality. In other words, the party fielded nominees who were poor matches for their district, had baggage, or were ineffective campaigners.

This year, the party is working with a stronger bench.

The most notable example is Alaska’s statewide House district. In 2022, moderate Democrat Mary Peltola pulled off a historic upset when she beat former Governor Sarah Palin in the final round of the state’s ranked choice ballot tabulation.

This year, Republicans hope that either second-time candidate Nick Begich or Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom will retake the seat; both have been stronger campaigners.

Peltola is well-liked in her state and has been an advocate on local issues, chiefly the state’s fishing industry. This seat is rated Lean D.

Advertisement

Fox News Power Rankings house races that are toss-ups. (Fox News)

Back on the mainland, Ohio’s 9th district has been in Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s hands since 1983. She has crafted a brand around her pro-agriculture and anti-free trade views.

But with Ohio’s rightward drift, this is a very competitive seat.

In the midterms, Republicans fielded a candidate who was in lock step with Trump but struggled to appeal to centrists. This time, state Rep. Derek Merrin will be on the ballot for the GOP, bringing conservative principles and a wealth of campaign experience along with him.

This seat is a toss-up.

Advertisement

Republicans still have candidate issues in some key races. Washington’s 3rd district will be a rematch between first-term Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Blue Dog Democrat who recently suggested that Biden resign from office, and Joe Kent, her Republican challenger.

Kent, a veteran and former CIA officer, was mired in controversy in 2022. That will continue to be a liability, but Republicans are hopeful that he will run a more disciplined campaign this time. This race is also a toss-up.

Trump helps down ballot Republicans, including in suburban districts

Trump struggled in the suburbs when he last ran for president. According to the Fox News Voter Analysis, he lagged Biden by 10 points with all suburban voters and 19 points with suburban women, leaving him with critical deficits in the battleground states.

House Republicans in city and suburban districts did not fare so poorly. Challengers like Nicole Malliotakis in New York’s 11th district, Young Kim and Michelle Steel in the California suburbs and Maria Elvira Salazar in Miami flipped Democratic districts.

Advertisement

This all suggests that Trump is more helpful to House Republicans than the conventional wisdom might say. He brings out core “MAGA” voters who vote red down the ballot, while allowing candidates to make inroads with moderates and independents.

Fox News Power Rankings races that lean Republican. (Fox News)

The best example is in Nebraska’s 2nd district, containing Omaha and its surrounding suburbs.

At the presidential level, this is a Lean D district (and unlike most, it gets an electoral vote in November). The area has a larger proportion of college-educated voters, who dislike Trump and show up to vote against him.

However, in the House, the race is rated Lean R.

Advertisement

That is thanks to Rep. Don Bacon, a moderate conservative, veteran and Trump critic who has won the district four times from 2016 onwards.

He has another tough battle against state lawmaker Tony Vargas this year, who is running a disciplined and well-funded campaign.

Unlike the presidential race, the Republicans have an edge here so far.

Fox News Power Rankings Democrat vs. Republican “good night” analysis. (Fox News)

Open seats and first-term incumbents

Advertisement

There are several departing Democrats in competitive districts, including Elissa Slotkin in Michigan’s 7th district and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s 7th. 

These moderate congresswomen in swingy parts of their states are running for Senate seats this year, leaving highly competitive races behind.

Republicans are hopeful that the departure of these well-known incumbents will give their challengers a boost, but with both parties fielding high-quality replacements, these races will be close (Democrats have an edge in Virginia’s 7th).

FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: WITH VP PICKS, HARRIS AND TRUMP MISS OPPORTUNITIES TO BROADEN THEIR APPEAL

Democrats will also play defense in dozens of districts with first-term incumbents, like Rep. Yadira Caraveo in Colorado’s 8th district. This newly created district includes the northern Denver suburbs and surrounding areas, and Caraveo won it by less than a point last time. This race is a toss-up.

Advertisement

Competitive races in blue states

California and New York run deep blue at the statewide level, but just outside highly populated liberal cities, plenty of districts are in play.

Fox News Power Rankings projected house wins chart. (Fox News)

In California, keep an eye on the 13th district, home of Modesto; the 27th district, north of Los Angeles; and the 41st district, which includes Palm Springs.

Republicans won all three seats by narrow margins in the midterms and are now locked in tough re-election battles with well-funded Democratic opponents. The forecast has Democrats with an edge in the 13th and 27th districts at Lean D, while the 41st is a toss-up.

Advertisement

Across the continent in New York, and Brandon Williams is not the only Republican fighting for his political career.

New York’s 17th, 18th and 19th districts, all in the Hudson Valley region, were hotly contested in the midterms, and two out of the three are now represented by Republicans with strong bipartisan brands. Rep. Mike Lawler is the best known but also has the bluest territory to defend of the two, with Rep. Marc Molinaro in another tight race nearby. Both these races are toss-ups.

In between them is Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, whose race starts at Lean D.

Governor rankings are out tomorrow as the countdown to the DNC continues

Advertisement

Voters in 11 states will cast a ballot for governor this year; tomorrow’s Power Rankings takes a look at the most competitive races on the map.

Then, on Sunday, Fox News Democracy 24 special coverage for the Democratic National Convention begins with an all-new Power Rankings Issues Tracker.

Politics

Video: Virginia Voters Approve New Map Favoring Democrats

Published

on

Video: Virginia Voters Approve New Map Favoring Democrats

new video loaded: Virginia Voters Approve New Map Favoring Democrats

Virginia voters approved a new map that could flip four House seats away from Republicans going into the 2026 midterm elections. It was the latest fight in the national redistricting war.

By Shawn Paik

April 22, 2026

Continue Reading

Politics

WATCH: Sen Warren unloads on Trump’s Fed nominee Kevin Warsh in explosive hearing showdown

Published

on

WATCH: Sen Warren unloads on Trump’s Fed nominee Kevin Warsh in explosive hearing showdown

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Sparks flew on Capitol Hill as Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., accused Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh of being a potential “sock puppet” for President Donald Trump.

Warsh, tapped by Trump in January to lead the Federal Reserve, faced a two-and-a-half-hour confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee.

If confirmed, he would take the helm of the world’s most powerful central bank, shaping interest rates, borrowing costs and the financial outlook for millions of American households for the next four years.

WHO IS KEVIN WARSH, TRUMP’S PICK TO SUCCEED JEROME POWELL AS FED CHAIR?

Advertisement

Kevin Warsh, nominee for chairman of the Federal Reserve, listens to ranking member Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., make an opening statement during his Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee confirmation hearing on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

In her opening remarks, Warren sharply criticized Warsh’s record and questioned his independence, arguing he is “uniquely ill-suited for the job as Fed chair” and warning he could give Trump influence over the central bank.

She accused Warsh of enabling Wall Street during the 2008 financial crisis, which fell during his tenure as a Federal Reserve governor when he served from 2006 to 2011.

“In our meeting last week, we discussed the 2008 financial crash, where 8 million people lost their jobs, 10 million people lost their homes and millions more lost their life savings,” Warren said. “Giant banks, however, got hundreds of billions of dollars in bailouts… and he said to me that he has no regrets about anything he did.”

She added that Warsh “worked tirelessly to arrange multibillion-dollar bailouts” for Wall Street CEOs, with nothing for American families.

Advertisement

The hearing grew more tense as Warren pivoted to ethics concerns, pressing Warsh over his undisclosed financial holdings and questioning him over links to business dealings connected to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The two spoke over each other and raised their voices in a heated exchange on Capitol Hill.

WARSH’S $226 MILLION FORTUNE UNDER SCRUTINY AS FED NOMINEE FACES SENATE CONFIRMATION

Sen. Elizabeth Warren: The Fed has been plagued by deeply disturbing ethics scandals in recent years. It’s critical that the next chair have no financial conflicts — none. You have more than $100 million in investments that you have refused to disclose. So let me ask: do the Juggernaut Fund or THSDFS LLC invest in companies affiliated with President Trump or his family, companies tied to money laundering, Chinese-controlled firms, or financing vehicles linked to Jeffrey Epstein?

Kevin Warsh: Senator, I’ve worked closely with the Office of Government Ethics and agreed to divest all of my financial assets.

Advertisement

Warren: Could you answer my question, please? You have more than $100 million in undisclosed assets. Are any of those investments tied to the entities I just mentioned? It’s a yes-or-no question.

Warsh: I have worked tirelessly with ethics officials and agreed to sell all of my assets before taking the oath of office.

Warren: Are you refusing to tell us if you have investments in vehicles linked to Jeffrey Epstein? You just won’t say?

Warsh: What I’m telling you is those assets will be sold if I’m confirmed.

Warren: Will you disclose how you plan to divest these assets? The public might question your motives if, for example, someone who profits from predicting Fed policy cuts you a $100 million check as you take office.

Advertisement

Sen. Elizabeth Warren questions Kevin Warsh during his Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee confirmation hearing on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Warsh: I’ve reached a full agreement with the Office of Government Ethics and will divest those assets before taking the oath.

Warren: I’m asking a very straightforward question. Will you disclose how you divest those assets?

Warsh: As I’ve said, I’ve worked with ethics officials.

Warren: I’ll take that as a no.

Advertisement

In a separate exchange, Warren invoked Trump’s past statements about the Fed and challenged Warsh to prove his independence in real time.

She insisted that Warsh answer whether he believes Trump won the 2020 presidential election and if he would name policies of the president with which he disagrees. The hopeful future Fed chair dodged the question and said he would remain apolitical, if confirmed.

THE ONE LINE IN WARSH’S TESTIMONY SIGNALING A BREAK FROM THE FED’S STATUS QUO

Warren: Donald Trump has made clear he does not want an independent Fed. He has said, “Anybody that disagrees with me will never be Fed chairman.” He’s also said interest rates will drop “when Kevin gets in.” Let’s check out your independence and your courage. We’ll start easy. Mr. Warsh, did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election?

Warsh: Senator, we should keep politics out of the Federal Reserve.

Advertisement

Warren: I’m asking a factual question.

Warsh: This body certified the election.

Warren: That’s not what I asked. Did Donald Trump lose in 2020?

Warsh: The Fed should stay out of politics.

Warren: In our meeting, you said you’re a “tough guy” who can stand up to President Trump. So name one aspect of his economic agenda you disagree with.

Advertisement

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Kevin Warsh listens to a question during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee confirmation hearing on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Warsh: That’s not something I’m prepared to do. The Fed should stay in its lane.

Warren: Just one place where you disagree.

Warsh: I do have one disagreement — he said I looked like I was out of central casting. I think I’d look older and grayer.

Advertisement

Warren: That’s adorable. But we need a Fed chair who is independent. If you can’t answer these questions, you don’t have the courage or the independence.

Continue Reading

Politics

Commentary: He honked to support a ‘No Kings’ rally. A cop busted him

Published

on

Commentary: He honked to support a ‘No Kings’ rally. A cop busted him

On March 28, a sunny Saturday in southwestern Utah, Jack Hoopes and his wife, Lorna, brought their homemade signs to the local “No Kings” rally.

The couple joined a crowd of 1,500 or so marching through the main picnic area of a park in downtown St. George. Their signs — cut-out words on a black background — chided lawmakers for failing to stand up to President Trump and urged America to “make lying wrong again.”

After about an hour, the two were ready to go home. They got in their silver Volvo SUV, but before pulling away, Jack Hoopes decided to swing past the demonstration, which was still going strong. He tooted his horn, twice, in a show of solidarity.

That’s when things took a curious turn.

A police officer parked in the middle of the street warned Hoopes not to honk; at least that’s what he thinks the officer said as Hoopes drove past the chanting crowd. When he spotted two familiar faces, Hoopes hit the horn a third time — a friendly, howdy sort of honk. “It wasn’t like I was being obnoxious,” he said, “or laying on the horn.”

Advertisement

Hoopes turned a corner and the cop, lights flashing, pulled him over. He asked Hoopes for his license and registration. He returned a few moments later. A passing car sounded its horn. “Are you going to stop him, too?” Hoopes asked.

That did not sit well. The officer said he’d planned to let Hoopes off with a warning. Instead, he charged the 71-year-old retired potato farmer with violating Utah’s law on horns and warning devices. He issued a citation, with a fine punishable up to $50.

Hoopes — a law school graduate and prosecutor in the days before he took up potato farming — is fighting back, even though he estimates the legal skirmishing could cost him considerably more than the maximum fine. The ticket might have resulted from pique on the officer’s part. But Hoopes doesn’t think so. He sees politics at play.

“I’ve beeped my horn for [the pro-law enforcement] Back the Blue. I’ve beeped my horn for Black Lives Matter,” Hoopes said. “I’ve seen a lot of people honk for Trump and for MAGA.”

He’s also seen plenty of times when people honked their horns to celebrate high school championships and the like.

Advertisement

But Hoopes has never heard of anyone being pulled over, much less ticketed, for excessive or unlawful honking. “I think it’s freedom of expression,” he said.

Or should be.

Jack and Lorna Hoopes made their own protest signs to bring to the “No Kings” rally in St. George, Utah.

(Mikayla Whitmore / For The Times)

Advertisement

St. George is a fast-growing community of about 100,000 residents set amid the jagged red-rock peaks of the Mojave Desert. It’s a jumping-off point for Zion National Park, about 40 miles east, and a mecca for golf, hiking and mountain-bike riding.

It’s also Trump Country.

Washington County, where St. George is located, gave Trump 75% of its vote in 2024, with Kamala Harris winning a scant 23%. That emphatic showing compares with Trump’s 59% performance statewide.

St. George is where Hoopes and his wife live most of the time. When summer and its 100-degree temperatures hit, they retreat to southeast Idaho. The couple get along well with their neighbors in both places, Hoopes said, even though they’re Democrats living in ruby-red country. It’s not as though they just tolerate folks, or hold their noses to get by.

“Most of my friends are conservative,” Hoopes said. “Some of the Trump people are very good people. We just have a difference of opinion where our country is going.”

Advertisement

He was speaking from a hotel parking lot in Arizona near Lake Havasu while embarked on an annual motorcycle ride through the Southwest: four days, a dozen riders, 1,200 miles. Most of his companions are Trump supporters, Hoopes said, and, just like back home, everyone gets on fine.

“Right?” he called out.

“No!” a voice hollered back.

Actually, Hoopes joked, his charitable road mates let him ride along because they consider him handicapped — his disability being his political ideology.

Hoopes is not exactly a hellion. In 2014, he and his wife traveled to Africa to participate in humanitarian work and promote sustainable agriculture in Kenya and Uganda. In 2020, they worked as Red Cross volunteers helping wildfire victims in Northern California.

Advertisement

Virtually his entire life has been spent on the right side of the law, though Hoopes allowed as how he has racked up a few speeding tickets over the years. (His career as a prosecutor lasted four years and involved three murder cases in the first 12 months before he left the legal profession behind and took up farming.)

He’s never had any problems with the police in St. George. “They seem to be decent,” Hoopes said.

A department spokesperson, Tiffany Mitchell, said illicit honking is not a widespread problem in the placid, retiree-heavy community, but there are some who have been cited for violations. She denied any political motivation in Hoopes’ case.

“He must’ve felt justified,” Mitchell said of the officer who issued the citation. “I can’t imagine that politics had anything to do with it.”

And yes, she said, honking a horn can be a political statement protected by the 1st Amendment. “But, just like anything else, it can turn criminal,” Mitchell said, and apparently that’s how the officer felt on March 28 “and that’s the direction he took it.”

Advertisement

The matter now rests before a judge, residing in a legal system that has lately been tested and twisted in remarkable ways.

A pair of hands resting on a traffic citation given for alleged excessive honking

Jack Hoopes’ case is now before a judge in St. George, Utah.

(Mikayla Whitmore / For The Times)

As he left an initial hearing earlier this month, Hoopes said his phone pinged with a fresh headline out of Washington. Trump’s Justice Department, it was reported, was asking a federal appeals court to throw out the convictions of 12 people found guilty of seditious conspiracy for their roles in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.

“We have a president that pardons people that broke into the Capitol and defecated” in the hallways and congressional offices, Hoopes said. “Police officers died because of it, and yet I get picked up for honking my horn?”

Advertisement

Hoopes’ next court appearance, a pretrial conference, is set for July 15.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending