At a time when we’re all deluged with conflicting polls and statistical ties, Donald Trump’s campaign is unusually confident.

The Kamala Harris operation also sees reason for optimism, with news that late deciders are breaking her way by more than 10%. But she still casts herself as the underdog. Her “SNL” appearance doesn’t change that; nor does Trump saying that RFK’s plan to remove fluoride from the water, a major public health advance, “sounds okay to me.”

Most media folks, either publicly or privately, believe Trump will win, even as the anti-Trumpers beg their followers to turn out for the VP – such as MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace asking her ex-boss George W. Bush to publicly back Harris.

The climax of the campaign seems built around a gaping gender gap–with Kamala doing far better among women and Trump much better among men. 

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The view from the Trump camp is that registration figures favor Republicans, based on mail-in voting, in the battleground states that will decide the race. Nearly half the country has already voted.

Take the crucial commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 7.5% advantage, and that’s now shrunk to a 3-point edge.

What’s more, just 39% of Democrats who have voted there so far are men, compared to 49% among Republicans.

Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, who appears on MSNBC, says the Pennsylvania electorate is much more Republican, and much more male, than last time.

Harris needs a huge turnout in Philadelphia to carry the state, and numerous news reports say she’s still struggling to win over some Black men.

In Wisconsin, the view from Trump World is that in-person voting (which tends to favor the former president) is outnumbering mail ballots (which lean Democratic). Trump’s strength is among male, white and rural voters. So, as in the case of Philly, Harris must do very well in Milwaukee and Madison to carry the state.

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Michigan, which Rep. Debbie Dingell recently told me is a toss-up, remains an enigma, because it doesn’t track party registration. So the ballgame there may turn on how well Harris does in Detroit. 

The Trump camp sees similar advantages in such swing states as Georgia and North Carolina, where public polling is close but would be a bigger stretch for a Harris win. The election really turns on the three Blue Wall states.

Maybe Harris should have picked Josh Shapiro?

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Lititz, Pa., on Sunday, Nov. 3. The Trump campaign appears confident of a win based on early in-person votes outnumbering mail-in ballots – which skew heavily Democratic – in key areas. (AP/Matt Rourke)

In one key state after another, local Black leaders are quoted on the record as saying they’re worried about warning signs in their community:

Politico: “The city of Milwaukee is trailing the rest of the state by about 7 percent both in its mail-in return rate and in overall registered voter turnout. It’s a warning sign, even some Democrats privately say, for Harris as her campaign looks to run up the score with urban and suburban voters to overcome Wisconsin’s rural counties.”

Capital B, Atlanta: The turnout of Black voters in Georgia “has dropped from more than 29 percent” on the first day of early voting “to about 25 percent…That’s the bad news for Harris…

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“Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats looking for a guaranteed win in statewide office races in Georgia usually need to hit a 30 percent Black turnout rate.”

Charlotte Observer: “As of Wednesday, Black voters had cast 207,000 fewer ballots compared with four years ago — a drop of almost 40 percent.”

“I am worried about turnout in Detroit. I think it’s real,” said Jamal Simmons, a former Harris aide, told ABC.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to reporters after delivering remarks at a church service at Greater Emmanuel Institutional Church of God in Christ, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Detroit. Former Harris surrogate Jamal Simmons told ABC that he is “worried about turnout” in the Motor City. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

A sunnier view is offered by this Politico piece, which says that public polls appear to be undercounting Harris’ support.

The story says that “shy Trump voters” – who don’t want to tell pollsters who they’re supporting–are a thing of the past, given the aggressive nature of his campaign. 

Instead, many “forgotten” Harris voters are missed by the polls, especially Republicans frustrated with their own party: Nikki Haley voters.

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Citing a national survey, Politico says 66% of those voting for Haley in the primaries backed Trump in 2016, dropping to 59% four years ago and an estimated 45% this time. “Meanwhile, their support for the Democratic presidential nominee has nearly tripled from only 13 percent supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 percent indicating an intent to vote for Kamala Harris.”

To which I say: Who the hell knows?

We’re at the point now before tomorrow’s election that pollsters are analyzing the polls to figure out which ones are off. And–here comes the cliché – it all depends on turnout. Despite raising a billion bucks, if some of Harris’ potential supporters stay home, that sinks her candidacy.

The scenarios favored by the Trump team rest largely on party registration, not polls that have missed the mark in the last two cycles.

That explains why the former president is more confident, even as he asks his advisers whether they really believe he’s going to win.

There are thousands of golf courses in the United States. You can find them in every state, in nearly every county; there’s probably one near you.

It’s not just golf and brewing: People in America’s reddest neighborhoods see a different landscape of stores, restaurants and venues when they step outside their homes than those in more politically even precincts or the very bluest areas.

We wanted to look at this relationship between politics and the places around us. So, using data from the Overture Maps Foundation, we took the location of millions of different stores, restaurants, churches, parks and more and lined them up with the 2020 election results, down to the precinct.

We don’t know who goes to each place. But we know how the neighborhoods surrounding each locale vote.

The results are sometimes obvious: Yoga studios and cocktail bars skew toward deeply blue spaces, and gun stores and farms toward redder precincts. But they show how our politics, geography and lives intersect, not always in obvious ways.

In many cases, these graphs look the way they do largely because of the urban-rural divide. Certain activities, like golf, need space, and the more rural parts of the country tend to vote for Republicans. Meanwhile, a small, Democratic-leaning urban area might be a commercial hub for a redder county, with a brewery, coffee shop and bookstore; those businesses would look blue in our data set even if they were frequented equally by Republicans and Democrats.

“The placement of businesses is probably motivated primarily by income level and population density,” said Nick Rogers, a sociology professor at the University of Pittsburgh. “It just so happens that an area’s political ideology is highly correlated with these things.”

Some places, of course, are just everywhere:

And some kinds of places don’t fit easily into one bucket or the other.

Consider Baptist churches: A majority of the tens of thousands of these churches in the U.S. are in the South. That means they’re heavily concentrated in both Republican neighborhoods and largely Black, heavily Democratic areas. The resulting distribution looks like this:

Wineries, too, show a double hump. You can see that in California alone — with wine production clustered along both its bluer coastline and the redder Central Valley.

For many brands, the partisan map emerges from the regional footprint of the business. Piggly Wiggly mostly serves redder states in the South, while Food Lion is spread across a more politically varied area in the Southeast.

But the maps cut across people and places in different ways. A liberal voter in Los Angeles may have never heard of Piggly Wiggly. But it’s also possible that person has never heard of Stop & Shop, a supermarket in the bluer Northeast.

Other brands that aren’t so regionally clustered have expanded in pursuit of the clientele they already know. For example, Whole Foods, Peet’s Coffee and the upscale sportswear brand Lululemon have a high-earning urban customer base.

The Overture data in this analysis reflects businesses and places that have logged their locations on either Meta or Microsoft platforms; the data is imperfect and includes mislabeled locations and closed stores. But this is the best publicly available data set of its kind, and it lets us see patterns in the data that aren’t captured by surveys of consumer preference.

Here’s a roundup of them.

Fast food

One fast food chain in many deep blue precincts is Popeyes. The chicken purveyor is found in many Southern cities but also across the West Coast and up and down I-95.

Its competitor Chick-fil-A — despite an early 2010s controversy over gay rights — is also in many blue areas.

Among the chains found in redder places are Tennessee-based Hardee’s and Oklahoma-based Sonic.

And Burger King, like McDonald’s, is everywhere.

Coffee shops

Starbucks is by far the nation’s largest coffee chain, and while it might feel as if it’s everywhere, it hews toward slightly denser locations.

Some smaller coffee chains have a more significant skew. West Coast chains like Blue Bottle and Peet’s Coffee are common in some of the bluest areas; the largest chain in our data with a strong presence in redder areas is Scooter’s Coffee.

Breakfast spots

IHOP neighborhoods are bluer than those around the largely Midwestern restaurant Bob Evans. Huddle House is the major breakfast chain with the highest frequency in red areas in our data.

Convenience stores

7-Eleven started in Texas, but it has since spread across many blue places.

Regional convenience store chains in redder areas include Casey’s General Store and Allsup’s.

Religious institutions

The headquarters of the Mormon Church are in blue Salt Lake City. But it has many temples in rural parts of the Mountain West.

First Congregational Church, on the other hand, is a common name for a church in the United Church of Christ, a socially liberal Protestant denomination common in New England.

First United Methodist churches are in redder areas:

Hindu and Buddhist temples are both typically in more liberal areas.

Professionals

Occupations also have recognizable patterns in our data, probably in large part because of the rural-urban political divide.

Some professions lend themselves to cities:

Others, to the countryside:

And yet others can find business just about anywhere:

Leisure

A lot of the activities we do for fun also map across politics.

Services

Even basic services follow similar patterns. Fire departments skew red because they have to be everywhere, regardless of how many people live there. Even a small, rural area needs a fire department. When you consider population density, you get this:

Elementary schools, meanwhile, are more population dependent.

Train stations, including those with subway stops, tend to be in more urban areas.

And propane suppliers, though everywhere, typically have more business in rural areas, farther from natural gas pipelines.

Taken together, the patterns are a reminder of how big and varied the country is — in its places and its politics.

You can explore the distribution of 100 large coffee chains, grocery stores, shops and other places below.

See More: Political Geography of 100 Large American Businesses

Ten more states are wrapping up their early in-person voting periods on Monday as the country sits on the eve of Election Day.

Here is everything you need to know to cast an early ballot in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Rhode Island and Wyoming. 

Montana’s hotly contested Senate race

Montana is a Republican stronghold at the presidential level, but it also hosts one of the most competitive Senate races in the country this cycle. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester faces Republican Tim Sheehy in a race where Trump’s popularity and Sheehy’s discipline gives the GOP an edge. It’s Lean R on the Power Rankings.

Other key down-ballot races in today’s states

• Alaska’s at-large district: In 2022, moderate Democrat Mary Peltola pulled off a historic upset when she beat former Gov. Sarah Palin in the final round of the state’s ranked choice ballot tabulation. This year, Republicans hope that second-time candidate Nick Begich will return the state to GOP hands. Peltola has made the fishing industry a focal point of her campaign; Begich is focusing on energy policy. This race was last ranked Lean D on the Fox News Power Rankings.
• Iowa’s 1st District: Second-term GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won this seat by six votes in 2020, and while redistricting gave her a more comfortable win in the midterms, she remains vulnerable in the Davenport and Iowa City district. Former state Rep. Christina Bohannan is the Democrat candidate. It’s a toss-up in the Power Rankings.

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The last states in the U.S. are wrapping up their early voting periods on Monday. (Getty Images)

• Iowa’s 3rd District: The southern 3rd District is represented by Republican Rep. Zach Nunn, who flipped the seat during the midterms. It was another close race, with 2,145 votes separating him and his Democrat opponent. This year, he’s up against Democrat Lanon Baccam, who recently worked at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This is a Lean R race.
• Colorado’s 3rd District: The 3rd District stretches across most of western Colorado. Thanks to a largely rural working-class population (Aspen is the exception), it’s been safely Republican for over a decade. But in 2022, the race came down to just 546 votes. Incumbent Rep. Lauren Boebert is moving to safer Republican turf this year, making this a race between her former Democratic challenger, Adam Frisch, and Republican attorney Jeff Hurd. It’s Lean R on the rankings.

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Fox News Power Rankings House table as of Oct. 29, 2024. (Fox News)

• Colorado’s 8th District: The 8th District starts in rural Weld County, where Trump won by 18 points in 2020. But the further down you go, the more suburban it becomes. Strong Democratic turnout in Adams County, which Biden won by 16 points, gave Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo her first win in 2022. This time, the incumbent is up against Republican state politician Gabe Evans. This is a toss-up race.
• Indiana’s 1st District: Democrat Rep. Frank Mrvan has held this northwest Indiana district since the last presidential election; he won it by 5.6 points in the midterms. This year, he faces Republican Lake County Councilman Randy Niemeyer. It shifted from Lean D to Likely D in the Power Rankings.
• Montana’s 1st District: Montana’s 1st Congressional District is the less Republican of the two; incumbent GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke took it by a slim three-point margin in the midterms. He has an edge in this western district established just two years ago following redistricting, and will compete against the same Democrat he faced two years prior: Olympic rower Monica Tranel. It’s a Lean R race.

Fox News Power Rankings House forecast. (Fox News)

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How to vote in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Wyoming

Voters who have received their mail-in ballot have until Nov. 5 to deliver it to state officials. Monday is the final day for early in-person voting.

Anders Hagstrom is a reporter with Fox News Digital covering national politics and major breaking news events. Send tips to Anders.Hagstrom@Fox.com, or on Twitter: @Hagstrom_Anders.