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Contributor: Democrats have four theories to beat Trump. Wish them luck

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Contributor: Democrats have four theories to beat Trump. Wish them luck

Donald Trump’s presidency has all the stability of a flaming garbage truck careening down a mountain. Yet, somehow, he’s still behind the wheel, grinning like a maniac, while Democrats argue over the best way to file a noise complaint.

His administration is a demolition derby in a fine china shop — tariffs, diplomatic blunders and economic upheaval. And yet, if the election were today, he’d probably win again.

How is this happening? Divine retribution? A rip in the space-time continuum? Some elaborate karmic joke? No — it’s because, amazingly, Democrats have mastered the art of being simultaneously too cautious and too out of touch.

That’s not to say they aren’t trying. When they’re not wasting time arguing over decorum or recording cringey “choose your fighter” videos, Democrats are busy scrambling to find a strategy to regain power. As far as I can tell, they have four (not mutually exclusive) theories.

Theory No. 1: Cross your fingers and wait for Trump to self-destruct

This is the laziest and most beloved strategy — waiting for Trump to spontaneously combust like a Spinal Tap drummer. The logic: Trump is objectively bad at his job. He alienates allies, tanks the economy and treats foreign diplomacy like a game of “Call of Duty.” Surely, at some point, voters will come to their senses, right?

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Yeah, about that. First, Trump is a world-class blame-shifter. He could drive the country into a volcano, and his base would still be cheering from the lava’s edge and faulting whoever Trump blasted most recently. Second, people don’t vote based on governance — they vote based on vibes. Trump’s vibe is chaos, but it’s charismatic chaos. His base doesn’t care if he burns down the country as long as he looks cool doing it. Meanwhile, the Democratic pitch of “we’re not as deranged as he is” is less an inspiring message and more a desperate plea from a hostage negotiator.

Voters want a story, a movement, a reason to care. Democrats keep handing them a pamphlet on fiscal responsibility.

Theory No. 2: Work hard

The second theory is refreshingly logical but also unbearably dull: What if Democrats tried really hard? You know: TV ads, field offices, door-knocking — a real ground game.

This strategy is self-soothing (it’s nice to think that blocking and tackling pays off), but it also has a tragic flaw: It works better in the midterms, when turnout is low. If ground games won presidential elections, Kamala Harris would have mopped the floor with Trump. She did not, because modern swing voters aren’t swayed by slickly produced ads and heartfelt town halls. This is the TikTok era, baby.

Trump’s rallies are like tent revivals, blending conspiracy theories with stand-up comedy. Meanwhile, Democrats are still campaigning like it’s 1992, pointing to bar graphs, issuing carefully calibrated statements and convening listening sessions about prescription drug costs.

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Politics has become full-blown entertainment. The Democrats are still hosting a book club.

Theory No. 3: Stop being culturally out of touch

Here’s the brutal truth Democrats don’t want to hear: They really have to stop being culturally insufferable.

This doesn’t mean abandoning liberal values or acting like a bunch of jerks. It means dropping the graduate seminar tone. The average voter does not want to “decolonize Thanksgiving.” They do not care about pronouns. They do not believe that every microaggression is an act of “violence.” But every time some 21-year-old activist blocks a highway or waves a Hamas flag at a protest, Democrats scramble to defend them. Why? Because they’re terrified of alienating their own base.

This is why they keep getting clobbered in Middle America. If they want to win, they need to talk like normal human beings again. Right now, your average Democrat sounds like an NPR panel discussion moderated by a yoga instructor with a Whole Foods tote bag.

Theory No. 4: Pray you can find a rock star

And now for the nuclear option: Democrats need a main character. Not a competent administrator. A star.

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Politics is now show business, and Trump understands this. He’s not a candidate — he’s a spectacle. His policies are often incoherent, but his performance is gripping. Attention is currency. Trump gets it. Democrats don’t.

So what do Democrats do? They either need a celebrity (someone like The Rock, Mark Cuban or Stephen A. Smith) or a political figure who doesn’t feel like a normal politician. John Fetterman, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders — these people have heat. But if the party nominates another hyper-competent bureaucrat who campaigns like they’re applying for tenure at Oberlin, the ticket is finished.

* * *

So what will it take?

Probably a combination of all four theories. Trump needs to stumble; Democrats need to actually do the work, stop alienating everyone outside a liberal arts campus and find a candidate who excites people.

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Otherwise, 2028 will roll around, and we’ll all be watching Donald Trump Jr., Candace Owens or Tucker Carlson get sworn in. And Democrats will be standing there slack-jawed, whispering, “I can’t believe we’re losing to these guys again.”

And the rest of us? We’ll be nursing one last cocktail of regret, knowing the warning signs were flashing bright red all along.

Matt K. Lewis is the author of “Filthy Rich Politicians” and “Too Dumb to Fail.”

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Wyoming Supreme Court rules laws restricting abortion violate state constitution

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Wyoming Supreme Court rules laws restricting abortion violate state constitution

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The Wyoming Supreme Court ruled on Tuesday that a pair of laws restricting abortion access violate the state constitution, including the country’s first explicit ban on abortion pills.

The court, in a 4-1 ruling, sided with the state’s only abortion clinic and others who had sued over the abortion bans passed since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, which returned the power to make laws on abortion back to the states.

Despite Wyoming being one of the most conservative states, the ruling handed down by justices who were all appointed by Republican governors upheld every previous lower court ruling that the abortion bans violated the state constitution.

Wellspring Health Access in Casper, the abortion access advocacy group Chelsea’s Fund and four women, including two obstetricians, argued that the laws violated a state constitutional amendment affirming that competent adults have the right to make their own health care decisions.

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TRUMP URGES GOP TO BE ‘FLEXIBLE’ ON HYDE AMENDMENT, IGNITING BACKLASH FROM PRO-LIFE ALLIES

The Wyoming Supreme Court ruled that a pair of laws restricting abortion access violate the state constitution. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Voters approved the constitutional amendment in 2012 in response to the federal Affordable Care Act, which is also known as Obamacare.

The justices in Wyoming found that the amendment was not written to apply to abortion but noted that it is not their job to “add words” to the state constitution.

“But lawmakers could ask Wyoming voters to consider a constitutional amendment that would more clearly address this issue,” the justices wrote.

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Wellspring Health Access President Julie Burkhart said in a statement that the ruling upholds abortion as “essential health care” that should not be met with government interference.

“Our clinic will remain open and ready to provide compassionate reproductive health care, including abortions, and our patients in Wyoming will be able to obtain this care without having to travel out of state,” Burkhart said.

Wellspring Health Access opened as the only clinic in the state to offer surgical abortions in 2023, a year after a firebombing stopped construction and delayed its opening. A woman is serving a five-year prison sentence after she admitted to breaking in and lighting gasoline that she poured over the clinic floors.

Wellspring Health Access opened as the only clinic in the state to offer surgical abortions in 2023, a year after a firebombing stopped construction. (AP)

Attorneys representing the state had argued that abortion cannot violate the Wyoming constitution because it is not a form of health care.

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Republican Gov. Mark Gordon expressed disappointment in the ruling and called on state lawmakers meeting later this winter to pass a constitutional amendment prohibiting abortion that residents could vote on this fall.

An amendment like that would require a two-thirds vote to be introduced as a nonbudget matter in the monthlong legislative session that will primarily address the state budget, although it would have significant support in the Republican-dominated legislature.

“This ruling may settle, for now, a legal question, but it does not settle the moral one, nor does it reflect where many Wyoming citizens stand, including myself. It is time for this issue to go before the people for a vote,” Gordon said in a statement.

APPEALS COURT SIDES WITH TRUMP ON BUDGET PROVISION CUTTING PLANNED PARENTHOOD FUNDS

Gov. Mark Gordon expressed disappointment in the ruling. (Getty Images)

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One of the laws overturned by the state’s high court attempted to ban abortion, but with exceptions in cases where it is needed to protect a pregnant woman’s life or in cases of rape or incest. The other law would have made Wyoming the only state to explicitly ban abortion pills, although other states have implemented de facto bans on abortion medication by broadly restricting abortion.

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Abortion has remained legal in the state since Teton County District Judge Melissa Owens blocked the bans while the lawsuit challenging the restrictions moved forward. Owens struck down the laws as unconstitutional in 2024.

Last year, Wyoming passed additional laws requiring abortion clinics to be licensed surgical centers and women to receive ultrasounds before having medication abortions. A judge in a separate lawsuit blocked those laws from taking effect while that case moves forward.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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What Trump’s vow to withhold federal child-care funding means in California

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What Trump’s vow to withhold federal child-care funding means in California

Gov. Gavin Newsom and other state Democratic leaders accused President Trump of unleashing a political vendetta after he announced plans to freeze roughly $10 billion in federal funding for child care and social services programs in California and four other Democrat-controlled states.

Trump justified the action in comments posted on his social media platform Truth Social, where he accused Newsom of widespread fraud. The governor’s office dismissed the accusation as “deranged.”

Trump’s announcement came amid a broader administration push to target Democratic-led states over alleged fraud in taxpayer-funded programs, following sweeping prosecutions in Minnesota. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services confirmed the planned funding freeze, which was first reported by the New York Post.

California officials said they have received no formal notice and argued the president is using unsubstantiated claims to justify a move that could jeopardize child care and social services for low-income families.

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How we got here

Trump posted on his social media site Truth Social on Tuesday that under Newsom, California is “more corrupt than Minnesota, if that’s possible???” In the post, Trump used a derogatory nickname for Newsom that has become popular with the governor’s critics, referring to him as “Newscum.”

“The Fraud Investigation of California has begun,” Trump wrote.

The president also retweeted a story by the New York Post that said his Department of Health and Human Services will freeze taxpayer funding from the Child Care Development Fund, the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, which is known as CalWORKS in California, and the Social Services Block Grant program. Health and Human Services said the affected states are California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota and New York.

“For too long, Democrat-led states and Governors have been complicit in allowing massive amounts of fraud to occur under their watch,” said Andrew Nixon, a department spokesperson. “Under the Trump Administration, we are ensuring that federal taxpayer dollars are being used for legitimate purposes. We will ensure these states are following the law and protecting hard-earned taxpayer money.”

The department announced last month that all 50 states will have to provide additional levels of verification and administrative data before they receive more funding from the Child Care and Development Fund after a series of fraud schemes at Minnesota day-care centers run by Somali residents.

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“The Trump Administration is using the moral guise of eliminating ‘fraud and abuse’ to undermine essential programs and punish families and children who depend on these services to survive, many of whom have no other options if this funding disappears,” Kristin McGuire, president of Young Invincibles, a young-adult nonprofit economic advocacy group, said in a statement. “This is yet another ideologically motivated attack on states that treats millions of families as pawns in a political game.”

California pushes back

Newsom’s office brushed off Trump’s post about fraud allegations, calling the president “a deranged, habitual liar whose relationship with reality ended years ago.” Newsom himself said he welcomes federal fraud investigations in the state, adding in an interview on MS NOW that aired Monday night: “Bring it on. … If he has some unique insight and information, I look forward to partnering with him. I can’t stand fraud.”

However, Newsom said cutting off funding hurts hardworking families who rely on the assistance.

“You want to support families? You believe in families? Then you believe in supporting child care and child-care workers in the workforce,” Newsom told MS NOW.

California has not been notified of any changes to federal child-care or social services funding. H.D. Palmer, a spokesperson for the Department of Finance, said the only indication from Washington that California’s child-care funding could be in jeopardy was the vague 5 a.m. post Tuesday by the president on Truth Social.

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“The president tosses these social media missives in the same way Mardi Gras revelers throw beads on Bourbon Street — with zero regard for accuracy or precision,” Palmer said.

In the current state budget, Palmer said, California’s child-care spending is $7.3 billion, of which $2.2 billion is federal dollars. Newsom is set to unveil his budget proposal Friday for the fiscal year that begins July 1, which will mark the governor’s final spending plan before he terms out. Newsom has acknowledged that he is considering a 2028 bid for president, but has repeatedly brushed aside reporters’ questions about it, saying his focus remains on governing California.

Palmer said while details about the potential threat to federal child-care dollars remain unclear, what is known is that federal dollars are not like “a spigot that will be turned off by the end of the week.”

“There is no immediate cutoff that will happen,” Palmer said.

Since Trump took office, California has filed dozens of legal actions to block the president’s policy changes and funding cuts, and the state has prevailed in many of them.

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What happened in Minnesota

Federal prosecutors say Minnesota has been hit by some of the largest fraud schemes involving state-run, federally funded programs in the country. Federal prosecutors estimate that as much as half of roughly $18 billion paid to 14 Minnesota programs since 2018 may be fraudulent, with providers accused of billing for services never delivered and diverting money for personal use.

The scale of the fraud has drawn national attention and fueled the Trump administration’s decision to freeze child-care funds while demanding additional safeguards before doling out money, moves that critics say risk harming families who rely on the programs. Gov. Tim Walz has ordered a third-party audit and appointed a director of program integrity. Amid the fallout, Walz announced he will not seek a third term.

Outrage over the fraud reached a fever pitch in the White House after a video posted online by an influencer purported to expose extensive fraud at Somali-run child-care centers in Minnesota. On Monday, that influencer, Nick Shirley, posted on the social media site X, “I ENDED TIM WALZ,” a claim that prompted calls from conservative activists to shift scrutiny to Newsom and California next.

Right-wing podcaster Benny Johnson posted on X that his team will be traveling to California next week to show “how criminal California fraud is robbing our nation blind.”

California officials have acknowledged fraud failures in the past, most notably at the Employment Development Department during the COVID-19 pandemic, when weakened safeguards led to billions of dollars in unemployment payments later deemed potentially fraudulent.

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An independent state audit released last month found administrative vulnerabilities in some of California’s social services programs but stopped short of alleging widespread fraud or corruption. The California state auditor added the Department of Social Services to its high-risk list because of persistent errors in calculating CalFresh benefits, which provides food assistance to those in need — a measure of payment accuracy rather than criminal activity — warning that federal law changes could eventually force the state to absorb billions of dollars in additional costs if those errors are not reduced.

What’s at stake in California

The Trump administration’s plans to freeze federal child-care, welfare and social services funding would affect $7.3 billion in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families funding, $2.4 billion for child-care subsidies and more than $800 million for social services programs in the five states.

The move was quickly criticized as politically motivated because the targeted states were all Democrat-led.

“Trump is now illegally freezing childcare and other funding for working families, but only in blue states,” state Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) said in a statement. “He says it’s because of ‘fraud,’ but it has nothing to do with fraud and everything to do with politics. Florida had the largest Medicaid fraud in U.S. history yet isn’t on this list.”

Added California Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas (D-Hollister): “It is unconscionable for Trump and Republicans to rip away billions of dollars that support child care and families in need, and this has nothing to do with fraud. California taxpayers pay for these programs — period — and Trump has no right to steal from our hard-working residents. We will continue to fight back.”

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Times staff writer Daniel Miller contributed to this report.

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Video: Walz Drops Re-Election Bid as Minnesota Fraud Scandal Grows

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Video: Walz Drops Re-Election Bid as Minnesota Fraud Scandal Grows

new video loaded: Walz Drops Re-Election Bid as Minnesota Fraud Scandal Grows

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Walz Drops Re-Election Bid as Minnesota Fraud Scandal Grows

Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota abandoned his re-election bid to focus on handling a scandal over fraud in social service programs that grew under his administration.

“I’ve decided to step out of this race, and I’ll let others worry about the election while I focus on the work that’s in front of me for the next year.” “All right, so this is Quality Learing Center — meant to say Quality ‘Learning’ Center.” “Right now we have around 56 kids enrolled. If the children are not here, we mark absence.”

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Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota abandoned his re-election bid to focus on handling a scandal over fraud in social service programs that grew under his administration.

By Shawn Paik

January 6, 2026

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